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Obama Campaign Drops the Ball on Medicare

1Historygenius
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8/20/2012 8:28:04 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Yes, Ryan hurt Romney, but Obama has dropped the ball now as well. Elephant Watcher has reported this:

"After Mitt Romney selected Paul Ryan as his vice-presidential running mate, Barack Obama's campaign strategy was clear: Demonize Ryan by publicizing the unpopular elements of the Ryan Plan and accuse
Romney/Ryan of attempting to cut Medicare. Obama's campaign was aware of the importance of this strategy ever since the possibility of a Ryan VP selection first arose, some months ago.

However, Obama has so far failed to effectively execute it. Instead, the Romney campaign opened up with a preemptive counter-attack, criticizing Obamacare for cutting some $700 billion from Medicare. The technical details of how Obamacare shuffles money around (including from Medicare) to pay for various additional and replacement programs are obscure. Do voters truly fear a Democratic president (one attacked as a liberal, no less) will cut Medicare? No. But the advantages of Ryan's preemptive attack are significant: Obamacare is unpopular, and it's much easier to articulate "Obamacare cuts $700 billion from Medicare" than to articulate the explanation for why this isn't the case.

More importantly, the Romney campaign does not need to convince voters that Obama wants to cut Medicare; they only need to fight Obama to a draw on the issue. If "Mediscare" is a draw between the Republican and the Democrat, it is the same as a victory for the Republican, since Medicare is a Ryan weakness and traditionally a Democratic strength. As an analogy, imagine if Obama were able to fight Romney to a draw on the issue of the economy. Certainly that "draw" would be a victory for Obama.

Why did the Obama campaign find itself so flat-footed on an obvious issue? Part of the explanation must be that they did not see Ryan as a serious VP possibility. They may have already begun opposition research and negative ads centered around more likely picks, such as Rob Portman, Tim Pawlenty, or even Marco Rubio. When Ryan was chosen, it came as a surprise, and they were caught unprepared.

Even so, the element of surprise cannot entirely account for how badly Obama fumbled. The Obama campaign, relative to the Romney/Ryan campaign, is less capable than it first appeared. Elephant Watcher has recalculated the odds and determined that Obama's odds of winning the presidency have diminished slightly.

Should Romney be celebrating a victory? Not yet. Even when a line of attack is botched or effectively countered, it can still reappear later on, when the stakes are higher. For example, the attacks against Bain Capital appeared ineffective when they were first launched earlier this summer, but they returned. The Ryan Plan and "Mediscare" are bound to return later in the campaign."

In other words, the Obama campaign made a serious mistake. Before this post Romney led with 57% and now he leads with 59% vs. Obama's 41%.
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

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TheHitchslap
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8/20/2012 8:32:22 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/20/2012 8:28:04 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
Yes, Ryan hurt Romney, but Obama has dropped the ball now as well. Elephant Watcher has reported this:

"After Mitt Romney selected Paul Ryan as his vice-presidential running mate, Barack Obama's campaign strategy was clear: Demonize Ryan by publicizing the unpopular elements of the Ryan Plan and accuse
Romney/Ryan of attempting to cut Medicare. Obama's campaign was aware of the importance of this strategy ever since the possibility of a Ryan VP selection first arose, some months ago.

However, Obama has so far failed to effectively execute it. Instead, the Romney campaign opened up with a preemptive counter-attack, criticizing Obamacare for cutting some $700 billion from Medicare. The technical details of how Obamacare shuffles money around (including from Medicare) to pay for various additional and replacement programs are obscure. Do voters truly fear a Democratic president (one attacked as a liberal, no less) will cut Medicare? No. But the advantages of Ryan's preemptive attack are significant: Obamacare is unpopular, and it's much easier to articulate "Obamacare cuts $700 billion from Medicare" than to articulate the explanation for why this isn't the case.

More importantly, the Romney campaign does not need to convince voters that Obama wants to cut Medicare; they only need to fight Obama to a draw on the issue. If "Mediscare" is a draw between the Republican and the Democrat, it is the same as a victory for the Republican, since Medicare is a Ryan weakness and traditionally a Democratic strength. As an analogy, imagine if Obama were able to fight Romney to a draw on the issue of the economy. Certainly that "draw" would be a victory for Obama.

Why did the Obama campaign find itself so flat-footed on an obvious issue? Part of the explanation must be that they did not see Ryan as a serious VP possibility. They may have already begun opposition research and negative ads centered around more likely picks, such as Rob Portman, Tim Pawlenty, or even Marco Rubio. When Ryan was chosen, it came as a surprise, and they were caught unprepared.

Even so, the element of surprise cannot entirely account for how badly Obama fumbled. The Obama campaign, relative to the Romney/Ryan campaign, is less capable than it first appeared. Elephant Watcher has recalculated the odds and determined that Obama's odds of winning the presidency have diminished slightly.

Should Romney be celebrating a victory? Not yet. Even when a line of attack is botched or effectively countered, it can still reappear later on, when the stakes are higher. For example, the attacks against Bain Capital appeared ineffective when they were first launched earlier this summer, but they returned. The Ryan Plan and "Mediscare" are bound to return later in the campaign."

In other words, the Obama campaign made a serious mistake. Before this post Romney led with 57% and now he leads with 59% vs. Obama's 41%.

Yet Romney care looks almost the exact same as Obamacare....
Thank you for voting!
royalpaladin
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8/20/2012 8:34:30 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Obamacare does not cut Medicare spending. It reduces wasteful spending by cutting down on fraud and shifting people away from Medicare Advantage, which costs the state 117% more for the same services.
NixonianVolkswagen
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8/20/2012 8:46:17 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Even if Ryan checks Biden, the fact that Romney's picked Ryan will be the stakes in the earth from which he's torn apart when he spars with the rhetorically superior Obama. By this I mean, Obama is a better speaker than Romney, all he needed was the ammunition to win the 2012 Presidential Debates, and Romney has just handed him a grenade.
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imabench
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8/20/2012 9:03:30 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Intrade has Obama leading 57 to 42,
Gallup Polls have Obama down by just 2%
Rassmussen has Obama down by only 1%
CNN currently has Obama up by 7%
Fox News has Obama up by 9%
Politico/GWU has Obama up by 1%

The RCP average of all these major polls show Obama leading by 2.5%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com...
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1Historygenius
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8/20/2012 9:32:10 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/20/2012 9:03:30 PM, imabench wrote:
Intrade has Obama leading 57 to 42,
Gallup Polls have Obama down by just 2%
Rassmussen has Obama down by only 1%
CNN currently has Obama up by 7%
Fox News has Obama up by 9%
Politico/GWU has Obama up by 1%

The RCP average of all these major polls show Obama leading by 2.5%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

The EW poll average has Romney leading with 1.8
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

Latest debate - Reagan was a better President than Obama: http://www.debate.org...
1Historygenius
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8/20/2012 9:32:35 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/20/2012 8:34:30 PM, royalpaladin wrote:
Obamacare does not cut Medicare spending. It reduces wasteful spending by cutting down on fraud and shifting people away from Medicare Advantage, which costs the state 117% more for the same services.

That is more complex to explain.
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

Latest debate - Reagan was a better President than Obama: http://www.debate.org...
MrBrooks
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8/20/2012 9:36:21 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/20/2012 8:34:30 PM, royalpaladin wrote:
Obamacare does not cut Medicare spending. It reduces wasteful spending by cutting down on fraud and shifting people away from Medicare Advantage, which costs the state 117% more for the same services.

He wanted to reduce fraud and corruption by scaling down the size of a program? Sounds like a good idea to me, and I'd vote for him if he didn't just funnel the money into another program riddled with fradulent and corrupt behaviour.
imabench
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8/20/2012 9:41:28 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/20/2012 9:32:10 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 8/20/2012 9:03:30 PM, imabench wrote:
Intrade has Obama leading 57 to 42,
Gallup Polls have Obama down by just 2%
Rassmussen has Obama down by only 1%
CNN currently has Obama up by 7%
Fox News has Obama up by 9%
Politico/GWU has Obama up by 1%

The RCP average of all these major polls show Obama leading by 2.5%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

The EW poll average has Romney leading with 1.8

you just posted saying romney was leading 58 to 41
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
royalpaladin
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8/20/2012 9:46:41 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/20/2012 9:36:21 PM, MrBrooks wrote:
At 8/20/2012 8:34:30 PM, royalpaladin wrote:
Obamacare does not cut Medicare spending. It reduces wasteful spending by cutting down on fraud and shifting people away from Medicare Advantage, which costs the state 117% more for the same services.

He wanted to reduce fraud and corruption by scaling down the size of a program?
No, he cut down on fraud and also cut down on Medicare Part C, which costs more because insurance companies were charging the government significantly more to provide seniors with the same services that the government would give to them anyways under Parts A and B.
Sounds like a good idea to me, and I'd vote for him if he didn't just funnel the money into another program riddled with fradulent and corrupt behaviour.

Which one is that?
royalpaladin
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8/20/2012 9:47:06 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/20/2012 9:32:35 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 8/20/2012 8:34:30 PM, royalpaladin wrote:
Obamacare does not cut Medicare spending. It reduces wasteful spending by cutting down on fraud and shifting people away from Medicare Advantage, which costs the state 117% more for the same services.

That is more complex to explain.

That doesn't excuse Romney's lie.
MrBrooks
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8/20/2012 9:50:04 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
No, he cut down on fraud and also cut down on Medicare Part C, which costs more because insurance companies were charging the government significantly more to provide seniors with the same services that the government would give to them anyways under Parts A and B.

That isn't fraud, that's poor implementation on the part of the government. It doesn't change the fact that his idea of reducing fraud and corruption is simply to scale down the size of a program.

Which one is that?

Obamacare.
royalpaladin
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8/20/2012 9:56:59 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/20/2012 9:50:04 PM, MrBrooks wrote:
No, he cut down on fraud and also cut down on Medicare Part C, which costs more because insurance companies were charging the government significantly more to provide seniors with the same services that the government would give to them anyways under Parts A and B.

That isn't fraud, that's poor implementation on the part of the government.
You didn't read what I wrote.

I said that he is cutting down on Medicare fraud and also is cutting down on wasteful spending. The extra costs of Part C are not fraud; the fraud is independent of the burdens incurred by Medicare Advantage. Obama cuts down on both in order to save money.
It doesn't change the fact that his idea of reducing fraud and corruption is simply to scale down the size of a program.

Which one is that?

Obamacare.

I don't even think you know what that entails. Obamacare actually cuts the cost of healthcare for small businesses (who have to pay more for the same services that large businesses receive) while also reducing costs for individuals. It does not raise fraud and corruption. In fact, if Obama had been able to create a public option to compete with private providers and drive premiums down more, it would have cost people even less. In addition, Obama isn't shifting money from Medicare to Obamacare because the changes in Medicare are a part of the Affordable Care Act/Obamacare.

Please research the bill before you comment next time.
MrBrooks
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8/20/2012 10:11:50 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
I said that he is cutting down on Medicare fraud and also is cutting down on wasteful spending. The extra costs of Part C are not fraud; the fraud is independent of the burdens incurred by Medicare Advantage. Obama cuts down on both in order to save money.

I think you're missing my point; I think that the majority of Medicare is wasteful spending, and that it should be phased out over time. I approve of cuts to Medicare, but what bothers me is the fact that the money was just moved into something else.

I don't even think you know what that entails. Obamacare actually cuts the cost of healthcare for small businesses (who have to pay more for the same services that large businesses receive) while also reducing costs for individuals. It does not raise fraud and corruption. In fact, if Obama had been able to create a public option to compete with private providers and drive premiums down more, it would have cost people even less. In addition, Obama isn't shifting money from Medicare to Obamacare because the changes in Medicare are a part of the Affordable Care Act/Obamacare.

Let's say that for argument's sake, that everything you said is true; none of that matters if the program isn't sustainable and is driving us into bankruptcy. You could promise the bestest benefits ever and put them into law, but if you got no money it is only a paper promise. If you go bankrupt then the grand sum total that everyone receives will be $0 and 0 cents.

Please research the bill before you comment next time.

I really don't feel like having a Jaxson/Ren style discussion with endless spread sheets and the like.
JamesMadison
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8/20/2012 10:15:59 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/20/2012 8:34:30 PM, royalpaladin wrote:
Obamacare does not cut Medicare spending. It reduces wasteful spending by cutting down on fraud and shifting people away from Medicare Advantage, which costs the state 117% more for the same services.

This common talking point is a myth.

In fact, Medicare Advantage is more efficient than the rest of Medicare. An apples to apples comparison reveals that Medicare Advantage costs 9% less for the same services as regular Medicare.

The average enrollee in Medicare advantage will lose $3,714 in health services.

http://www.forbes.com...
As a general rule, you'll find that, when a conservative is talking about policy, history, economics, or something serious, liberals are nowhere to be found. But, as soon as a conservative mentions Obama's birthplace or personal life, liberals are everywhere, only to dissappear again when evidence enters the discussion.
ScottyDouglas
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8/20/2012 10:23:48 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Obama or Romney...Healthcare will be brought forward with the RFID being a requirement for it. They could careless who gets it in as long as it does.
TheAsylum
Contra
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8/20/2012 10:25:17 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Obamacare does nothing to hold down health care inflation, and expands coverage but still leaves millions behind, and it does barely anything to restrain costs.

By fusing individual responsibility and personal accountability, you cut the moral hazard and cause households to be prudent with their health care funds, and they shop around for the lowest costs, and improve their health to maximize their profits (HSA balances), and private charities would provide free care to the poor, having a system of universal coverage. Free market health care would be superior than the PPACA.
"The solution [for Republicans] is to admit that Bush was a bad president, stop this racist homophobic stuff, stop trying to give most of the tax cuts to the rich, propose a real alternative to Obamacare that actually works, and propose smart free market solutions to our economic problems." - Distraff

"Americans are better off in a dynamic, free-enterprise-based economy that fosters economic growth, opportunity and upward mobility." - Paul Ryan
16kadams
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8/20/2012 10:32:26 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/20/2012 9:03:30 PM, imabench wrote:
Intrade has Obama leading 57 to 42,
Gallup Polls have Obama down by just 2%
Rassmussen has Obama down by only 1%
CNN currently has Obama up by 7%
Fox News has Obama up by 9%
Politico/GWU has Obama up by 1%

The RCP average of all these major polls show Obama leading by 2.5%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

A lot of those that favor romney are within the margin of error, wow.
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https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
MrBrooks
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8/20/2012 10:32:52 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/20/2012 10:25:17 PM, Contra wrote:
Obamacare does nothing to hold down health care inflation, and expands coverage but still leaves millions behind, and it does barely anything to restrain costs.

By fusing individual responsibility and personal accountability, you cut the moral hazard and cause households to be prudent with their health care funds, and they shop around for the lowest costs, and improve their health to maximize their profits (HSA balances), and private charities would provide free care to the poor, having a system of universal coverage. Free market health care would be superior than the PPACA.

The conversion is complete; welcome to the dark side, my son.
16kadams
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8/20/2012 10:33:42 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/20/2012 10:25:17 PM, Contra wrote:
Obamacare does nothing to hold down health care inflation, and expands coverage but still leaves millions behind, and it does barely anything to restrain costs.

By fusing individual responsibility and personal accountability, you cut the moral hazard and cause households to be prudent with their health care funds, and they shop around for the lowest costs, and improve their health to maximize their profits (HSA balances), and private charities would provide free care to the poor, having a system of universal coverage. Free market health care would be superior than the PPACA.

You've come so far... *tear*
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"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
1Historygenius
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8/20/2012 10:39:05 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/20/2012 9:41:28 PM, imabench wrote:
At 8/20/2012 9:32:10 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 8/20/2012 9:03:30 PM, imabench wrote:
Intrade has Obama leading 57 to 42,
Gallup Polls have Obama down by just 2%
Rassmussen has Obama down by only 1%
CNN currently has Obama up by 7%
Fox News has Obama up by 9%
Politico/GWU has Obama up by 1%

The RCP average of all these major polls show Obama leading by 2.5%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

The EW poll average has Romney leading with 1.8

you just posted saying romney was leading 58 to 41

That is their calculations, not their poll average.
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

Latest debate - Reagan was a better President than Obama: http://www.debate.org...
imabench
Posts: 21,216
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8/20/2012 10:56:21 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/20/2012 10:39:05 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 8/20/2012 9:41:28 PM, imabench wrote:
At 8/20/2012 9:32:10 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 8/20/2012 9:03:30 PM, imabench wrote:
Intrade has Obama leading 57 to 42,
Gallup Polls have Obama down by just 2%
Rassmussen has Obama down by only 1%
CNN currently has Obama up by 7%
Fox News has Obama up by 9%
Politico/GWU has Obama up by 1%

The RCP average of all these major polls show Obama leading by 2.5%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

The EW poll average has Romney leading with 1.8

you just posted saying romney was leading 58 to 41

That is their calculations, not their poll average.

well then what the f*ck are they calculating??
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
1Historygenius
Posts: 1,639
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8/20/2012 11:10:11 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/20/2012 10:56:21 PM, imabench wrote:
At 8/20/2012 10:39:05 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 8/20/2012 9:41:28 PM, imabench wrote:
At 8/20/2012 9:32:10 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 8/20/2012 9:03:30 PM, imabench wrote:
Intrade has Obama leading 57 to 42,
Gallup Polls have Obama down by just 2%
Rassmussen has Obama down by only 1%
CNN currently has Obama up by 7%
Fox News has Obama up by 9%
Politico/GWU has Obama up by 1%

The RCP average of all these major polls show Obama leading by 2.5%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

The EW poll average has Romney leading with 1.8

you just posted saying romney was leading 58 to 41

That is their calculations, not their poll average.

well then what the f*ck are they calculating??

They calculate what each candidate chances are of winning the election. How they calculate this is based on their victory scenarios they have made for all candidates.

There calculations are here: http://www.elephantwatcher.com...

Their poll average adjusts registered voters polls which tend to be less accurate and biased toward Democrats. Because of this, registered voters polls that posted will always have 3 extra points for Romney (example: let's say its (R) 45% vs. (O) 46%, the extra three points makes it (R) 48% vs. (O) 46%. This is to make it more fair for Romney. Usually registered voters polls stop as pollsters look for more accurate polls (which are likely voters polls).

Here is their poll average: http://www.elephantwatcher.com...
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

Latest debate - Reagan was a better President than Obama: http://www.debate.org...
imabench
Posts: 21,216
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8/21/2012 9:56:55 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/20/2012 11:10:11 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 8/20/2012 10:56:21 PM, imabench wrote:
At 8/20/2012 10:39:05 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 8/20/2012 9:41:28 PM, imabench wrote:
At 8/20/2012 9:32:10 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 8/20/2012 9:03:30 PM, imabench wrote:
Intrade has Obama leading 57 to 42,
Gallup Polls have Obama down by just 2%
Rassmussen has Obama down by only 1%
CNN currently has Obama up by 7%
Fox News has Obama up by 9%
Politico/GWU has Obama up by 1%

The RCP average of all these major polls show Obama leading by 2.5%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

The EW poll average has Romney leading with 1.8

you just posted saying romney was leading 58 to 41

That is their calculations, not their poll average.

well then what the f*ck are they calculating??

They calculate what each candidate chances are of winning the election. How they calculate this is based on their victory scenarios they have made for all candidates.

There calculations are here: http://www.elephantwatcher.com...

Their poll average adjusts registered voters polls which tend to be less accurate and biased toward Democrats. Because of this, registered voters polls that posted will always have 3 extra points for Romney (example: let's say its (R) 45% vs. (O) 46%, the extra three points makes it (R) 48% vs. (O) 46%. This is to make it more fair for Romney. Usually registered voters polls stop as pollsters look for more accurate polls (which are likely voters polls).

Here is their poll average: http://www.elephantwatcher.com...

note to self, dont trust EW
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
1Historygenius
Posts: 1,639
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8/21/2012 11:37:29 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/21/2012 9:56:55 AM, imabench wrote:
At 8/20/2012 11:10:11 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 8/20/2012 10:56:21 PM, imabench wrote:
At 8/20/2012 10:39:05 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 8/20/2012 9:41:28 PM, imabench wrote:
At 8/20/2012 9:32:10 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 8/20/2012 9:03:30 PM, imabench wrote:
Intrade has Obama leading 57 to 42,
Gallup Polls have Obama down by just 2%
Rassmussen has Obama down by only 1%
CNN currently has Obama up by 7%
Fox News has Obama up by 9%
Politico/GWU has Obama up by 1%

The RCP average of all these major polls show Obama leading by 2.5%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

The EW poll average has Romney leading with 1.8

you just posted saying romney was leading 58 to 41

That is their calculations, not their poll average.

well then what the f*ck are they calculating??

They calculate what each candidate chances are of winning the election. How they calculate this is based on their victory scenarios they have made for all candidates.

There calculations are here: http://www.elephantwatcher.com...

Their poll average adjusts registered voters polls which tend to be less accurate and biased toward Democrats. Because of this, registered voters polls that posted will always have 3 extra points for Romney (example: let's say its (R) 45% vs. (O) 46%, the extra three points makes it (R) 48% vs. (O) 46%. This is to make it more fair for Romney. Usually registered voters polls stop as pollsters look for more accurate polls (which are likely voters polls).

Here is their poll average: http://www.elephantwatcher.com...

note to self, dont trust EW

This is a fact. Registered voters polls tend to be inaccurate towards the Democrats. In order to gain accuracy, most pollsters turn to likely voters polls.
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

Latest debate - Reagan was a better President than Obama: http://www.debate.org...
imabench
Posts: 21,216
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8/21/2012 12:47:46 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/21/2012 11:37:29 AM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 8/21/2012 9:56:55 AM, imabench wrote:
At 8/20/2012 11:10:11 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:

They calculate what each candidate chances are of winning the election. How they calculate this is based on their victory scenarios they have made for all candidates.

There calculations are here: http://www.elephantwatcher.com...

Their poll average adjusts registered voters polls which tend to be less accurate and biased toward Democrats. Because of this, registered voters polls that posted will always have 3 extra points for Romney (example: let's say its (R) 45% vs. (O) 46%, the extra three points makes it (R) 48% vs. (O) 46%. This is to make it more fair for Romney. Usually registered voters polls stop as pollsters look for more accurate polls (which are likely voters polls).

Here is their poll average: http://www.elephantwatcher.com...

note to self, dont trust EW

This is a fact. Registered voters polls tend to be inaccurate towards the Democrats. In order to gain accuracy, most pollsters turn to likely voters polls.

Im guessing either fox news or elephant watchers told you that
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

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1Historygenius
Posts: 1,639
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8/21/2012 1:14:18 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/21/2012 12:47:46 PM, imabench wrote:
At 8/21/2012 11:37:29 AM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 8/21/2012 9:56:55 AM, imabench wrote:
At 8/20/2012 11:10:11 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:

They calculate what each candidate chances are of winning the election. How they calculate this is based on their victory scenarios they have made for all candidates.

There calculations are here: http://www.elephantwatcher.com...

Their poll average adjusts registered voters polls which tend to be less accurate and biased toward Democrats. Because of this, registered voters polls that posted will always have 3 extra points for Romney (example: let's say its (R) 45% vs. (O) 46%, the extra three points makes it (R) 48% vs. (O) 46%. This is to make it more fair for Romney. Usually registered voters polls stop as pollsters look for more accurate polls (which are likely voters polls).

Here is their poll average: http://www.elephantwatcher.com...

note to self, dont trust EW

This is a fact. Registered voters polls tend to be inaccurate towards the Democrats. In order to gain accuracy, most pollsters turn to likely voters polls.

Im guessing either fox news or elephant watchers told you that

Its an undisputed fact. If it was not, then explain to me why many pollsters turn to likely voters polls around the end of the election?

http://www.gallup.com...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com...
http://www.breitbart.com...
http://unlikelyvoter.com...
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

Latest debate - Reagan was a better President than Obama: http://www.debate.org...
1Historygenius
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8/21/2012 1:16:30 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
So you are wrong.
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

Latest debate - Reagan was a better President than Obama: http://www.debate.org...
imabench
Posts: 21,216
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8/21/2012 5:47:26 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/21/2012 1:14:18 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 8/21/2012 12:47:46 PM, imabench wrote:
At 8/21/2012 11:37:29 AM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 8/21/2012 9:56:55 AM, imabench wrote:
At 8/20/2012 11:10:11 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:

They calculate what each candidate chances are of winning the election. How they calculate this is based on their victory scenarios they have made for all candidates.

There calculations are here: http://www.elephantwatcher.com...

Their poll average adjusts registered voters polls which tend to be less accurate and biased toward Democrats. Because of this, registered voters polls that posted will always have 3 extra points for Romney (example: let's say its (R) 45% vs. (O) 46%, the extra three points makes it (R) 48% vs. (O) 46%. This is to make it more fair for Romney. Usually registered voters polls stop as pollsters look for more accurate polls (which are likely voters polls).

Here is their poll average: http://www.elephantwatcher.com...

note to self, dont trust EW

This is a fact. Registered voters polls tend to be inaccurate towards the Democrats. In order to gain accuracy, most pollsters turn to likely voters polls.

Im guessing either fox news or elephant watchers told you that

Its an undisputed fact. If it was not, then explain to me why many pollsters turn to likely voters polls around the end of the election?

http://www.gallup.com...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com...
http://www.breitbart.com...
http://unlikelyvoter.com...

well f*ck my mother til the cow turns blue
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
imabench
Posts: 21,216
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8/21/2012 5:48:21 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/21/2012 1:16:30 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
So you are wrong.

you dont have to rub it in you know
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015