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Dick Morris - Romney has a huge lead

Microsuck
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8/28/2012 6:29:05 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
Dick Morris, the advisor of the Clinton adminstration, recently gave his version the Presidential poll and found that Romney has a huge lead 50% - 43% -- a full 8 point lead.

With all the conflicting polls and survey samples using registered — as opposed to likely — voters, I decided to conduct my own poll using the same methodologies I used so successfully for Clinton.

On Thursday, August 23rd, I conducted a national survey of 500 likely voters through live telephone interviews. The poll finds Romney ahead of Obama by 50-43! — far, far different from the published polls.

(The sample was 33% Democrat, 31% Republican, 11% black, and 8% Latino).

Apart from the head-to-head vote question, my survey tracks with the others on most of its internals.

Obama's personal favorability is 47-50 while Romney's is 48-48. The president's job approval is at 46%.

Asked who would do the best job of:

Improving the economy = O-39 / R-49

Creating jobs = O-38 / R-50

Strengthening Medicare = O-44 / R-4

http://www.dickmorris.com...
I know one poll is not conclusive enough to say for certain who will win, however, I want your thoughts on this poll and how this could effect the outcome of the race.
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16kadams
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8/28/2012 8:00:52 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
--You agree one poll isn't enough, win.
--It won't have an effect, it will likely energize obamas supporters
--Let's hope it's correct
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RoyLatham
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8/28/2012 8:24:10 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
I think Morris has good point about polling likely voters rather than registered voters. Few polls survey likely voters because it costs nearly twice as much to get a statistically significant sample. Morris' poll of 500 likely voters is going to have an error of 5 points.

Fox News did a separate poll of likely voters over the weekend. That poll put Romney ahead by one point, a statistical tie. The Morris Poll may be oversampling Republicans. He has a split of 33/31 Democrats/Republicans. My recollection is that Democrats have larger edge in registration.

Democrats did a god job of increasing registration for Obama's first term election. It's uncertain how many people remain committed to being Democrats, now that the Obama theme has changed from "hope and change" to "hate the rich."

At this point in the 1980 election, Reagan was tied with Carter. It ended with a Reagan landslide. This time there are supposed to be fewer undecideds to sway. However, I think there are still a lot of people who don't know Romney/Ryan.
imabench
Posts: 21,229
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8/28/2012 10:54:46 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
The election is still a solid 2 months away and a lot could happen. The first few weeks that McCain had announced Palin as his VP pick Republicans had the women's vote locked up by a huge margin (Obama was clinging desperately to the young vote and the minority vote) but as time dragged on people saw Palin's true character and soon Republican political advisers and voters alike saw Palin as a setback rather then an asset to McCain.

Also worth mentioning is that the 08 election was heavily focused on the economy, much like when Reagan ran against Carter, so the economy is really going to determine where voters fall. As of right now its anyones guess who would come out on top, but two months from now if the economy gets worse then Romney could coast into the White house, whereas if it starts picking up the impeccable timing will allow Obama to stay in the White House without worrying about Romney.

Point is: We have a lot of time to go and a lot of time to see what kind of a character Ryan will make himself be to voters and to see where the economy is heading
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"
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7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

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Frederick53
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8/28/2012 10:59:34 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
Am I the only one who thought the title was Romnery has a huge head?
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imabench
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8/28/2012 11:27:34 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/28/2012 10:59:34 AM, Frederick53 wrote:
Am I the only one who thought the title was Romnery has a huge head?

I didnt think that but now I can see how someone might, lol. That would be a fun forum to visit...
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"
Geogeer: "Nobody is dumb enough to become my protege."

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
RoyLatham
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8/28/2012 12:01:51 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/28/2012 10:54:46 AM, imabench wrote:
The election is still a solid 2 months away and a lot could happen. The first few weeks that McCain had announced Palin as his VP pick Republicans had the women's vote locked up by a huge margin (Obama was clinging desperately to the young vote and the minority vote) but as time dragged on people saw Palin's true character and soon Republican political advisers and voters alike saw Palin as a setback rather then an asset to McCain.

Palin was always a net plus, and McCain was ahead in the polls in early September. The stockmarket and housing crashed in September, and that's what gave Obama the win.


Also worth mentioning is that the 08 election was heavily focused on the economy, much like when Reagan ran against Carter, so the economy is really going to determine where voters fall. As of right now its anyones guess who would come out on top, but two months from now if the economy gets worse then Romney could coast into the White house, whereas if it starts picking up the impeccable timing will allow Obama to stay in the White House without worrying about Romney.

It's way too late for the economy to pck up significantly. the path to Obama victory is to paint Romney as Satan's evil twin and promise free stuff to people.

Point is: We have a lot of time to go and a lot of time to see what kind of a character Ryan will make himself be to voters and to see where the economy is heading

Agree there is a lot time left. So far Ryan has given Romney a 4 point bounce and put Wisconsin in play. Palin fell for "gotcha" questions. Ryan is smarter and more knowledgeable than the reporters asking the questions. It'll be interesting.
imabench
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8/28/2012 12:08:07 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/28/2012 12:01:51 PM, RoyLatham wrote:
At 8/28/2012 10:54:46 AM, imabench wrote:
The election is still a solid 2 months away and a lot could happen. The first few weeks that McCain had announced Palin as his VP pick Republicans had the women's vote locked up by a huge margin (Obama was clinging desperately to the young vote and the minority vote) but as time dragged on people saw Palin's true character and soon Republican political advisers and voters alike saw Palin as a setback rather then an asset to McCain.

Palin was always a net plus, and McCain was ahead in the polls in early September. The stockmarket and housing crashed in September, and that's what gave Obama the win.

ALWAYS a net plus? towards the end she seemed mroe concerned with her own political aspirations then helping McCain win (but thats just my opinion)

Also worth mentioning is that the 08 election was heavily focused on the economy, much like when Reagan ran against Carter, so the economy is really going to determine where voters fall. As of right now its anyones guess who would come out on top, but two months from now if the economy gets worse then Romney could coast into the White house, whereas if it starts picking up the impeccable timing will allow Obama to stay in the White House without worrying about Romney.

It's way too late for the economy to pck up significantly.

Doesnt have to be significant, just has to be big enough to convince a few voters to give him a second term, with the race this close any improvement could help Obama in the polls

the path to Obama victory is to paint Romney as Satan's evil twin and promise free stuff to people.

Thats kind of opinionated wouldnt you say? Theres plenty to question Romney on policy wise and I havent heard Obama promising people free stuff (yet)

Point is: We have a lot of time to go and a lot of time to see what kind of a character Ryan will make himself be to voters and to see where the economy is heading

Agree there is a lot time left. So far Ryan has given Romney a 4 point bounce and put Wisconsin in play.

Im well aware, im just concerned over whether or not that advantage will stick around as the election looms and as people get a better idea of who Ryan is.

Palin fell for "gotcha" questions. Ryan is smarter and more knowledgeable than the reporters asking the questions. It'll be interesting.

Oh im not at all concerned that Ryan will be an idiot like Palin, its well known that hes way smarter. Im just wondering if some of Ryan's beliefs could drastically alienate him from people or not (I think he said something about rape being a form of contraception or something)
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"
Geogeer: "Nobody is dumb enough to become my protege."

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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8/28/2012 12:55:21 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/28/2012 12:08:07 PM, imabench wrote:
At 8/28/2012 12:01:51 PM, RoyLatham wrote:
At 8/28/2012 10:54:46 AM, imabench wrote:
The election is still a solid 2 months away and a lot could happen. The first few weeks that McCain had announced Palin as his VP pick Republicans had the women's vote locked up by a huge margin (Obama was clinging desperately to the young vote and the minority vote) but as time dragged on people saw Palin's true character and soon Republican political advisers and voters alike saw Palin as a setback rather then an asset to McCain.

Palin was always a net plus, and McCain was ahead in the polls in early September. The stockmarket and housing crashed in September, and that's what gave Obama the win.

ALWAYS a net plus? towards the end she seemed mroe concerned with her own political aspirations then helping McCain win (but thats just my opinion)

60% of McCain voters said palin was the reason. It revved up the base increasing voter turnout having a net benefit.


Also worth mentioning is that the 08 election was heavily focused on the economy, much like when Reagan ran against Carter, so the economy is really going to determine where voters fall. As of right now its anyones guess who would come out on top, but two months from now if the economy gets worse then Romney could coast into the White house, whereas if it starts picking up the impeccable timing will allow Obama to stay in the White House without worrying about Romney.

It's way too late for the economy to pck up significantly.

Doesnt have to be significant, just has to be big enough to convince a few voters to give him a second term, with the race this close any improvement could help Obama in the polls

the path to Obama victory is to paint Romney as Satan's evil twin and promise free stuff to people.

Thats kind of opinionated wouldnt you say? Theres plenty to question Romney on policy wise and I havent heard Obama promising people free stuff (yet)

Point is: We have a lot of time to go and a lot of time to see what kind of a character Ryan will make himself be to voters and to see where the economy is heading

Agree there is a lot time left. So far Ryan has given Romney a 4 point bounce and put Wisconsin in play.

Im well aware, im just concerned over whether or not that advantage will stick around as the election looms and as people get a better idea of who Ryan is.

Palin fell for "gotcha" questions. Ryan is smarter and more knowledgeable than the reporters asking the questions. It'll be interesting.

Oh im not at all concerned that Ryan will be an idiot like Palin, its well known that hes way smarter. Im just wondering if some of Ryan's beliefs could drastically alienate him from people or not (I think he said something about rape being a form of contraception or something)
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
imabench
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8/28/2012 12:59:58 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/28/2012 12:55:21 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 8/28/2012 12:08:07 PM, imabench wrote:
At 8/28/2012 12:01:51 PM, RoyLatham wrote:
At 8/28/2012 10:54:46 AM, imabench wrote:
The election is still a solid 2 months away and a lot could happen. The first few weeks that McCain had announced Palin as his VP pick Republicans had the women's vote locked up by a huge margin (Obama was clinging desperately to the young vote and the minority vote) but as time dragged on people saw Palin's true character and soon Republican political advisers and voters alike saw Palin as a setback rather then an asset to McCain.

Palin was always a net plus, and McCain was ahead in the polls in early September. The stockmarket and housing crashed in September, and that's what gave Obama the win.

ALWAYS a net plus? towards the end she seemed mroe concerned with her own political aspirations then helping McCain win (but thats just my opinion)


60% of McCain voters said palin was the reason. It revved up the base increasing voter turnout having a net benefit.

Source or it didnt happen
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"
Geogeer: "Nobody is dumb enough to become my protege."

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
unitedandy
Posts: 1,173
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8/28/2012 3:41:19 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/28/2012 12:01:51 PM, RoyLatham wrote:
At 8/28/2012 10:54:46 AM, imabench wrote:
The election is still a solid 2 months away and a lot could happen. The first few weeks that McCain had announced Palin as his VP pick Republicans had the women's vote locked up by a huge margin (Obama was clinging desperately to the young vote and the minority vote) but as time dragged on people saw Palin's true character and soon Republican political advisers and voters alike saw Palin as a setback rather then an asset to McCain.

Palin was always a net plus, and McCain was ahead in the polls in early September. The stockmarket and housing crashed in September, and that's what gave Obama the win.


Also worth mentioning is that the 08 election was heavily focused on the economy, much like when Reagan ran against Carter, so the economy is really going to determine where voters fall. As of right now its anyones guess who would come out on top, but two months from now if the economy gets worse then Romney could coast into the White house, whereas if it starts picking up the impeccable timing will allow Obama to stay in the White House without worrying about Romney.

It's way too late for the economy to pck up significantly. the path to Obama victory is to paint Romney as Satan's evil twin and promise free stuff to people.

Point is: We have a lot of time to go and a lot of time to see what kind of a character Ryan will make himself be to voters and to see where the economy is heading

Agree there is a lot time left. So far Ryan has given Romney a 4 point bounce and put Wisconsin in play. Palin fell for "gotcha" questions. Ryan is smarter and more knowledgeable than the reporters asking the questions. It'll be interesting.

Lol. I don't think things like asking what Supreme Court decision she disagreed with, or what papers she read were particularly "gotcha". In fact, asking about the Bush Doctrine isn't even a gotcha question for a potential VP. I can't remember who said it, but they summed up Palin not as someone who didn't know the right answer to a question, but more often than not, didn't understand the question. Some of the things which have come out since about Palin does make it genuinely terrifying that but for the economic collapse, she could have been one tragedy away from the nuclear button.