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Electoral Map Predictions?

Microsuck
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9/11/2012 10:39:16 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
http://www.270towin.com...

What is your prediction for the November race?
Wall of Fail

Devil worship much? - SD
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imabench
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9/11/2012 11:31:14 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
I have Obama winning 538 to 0

/trolling
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

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RoyLatham
Posts: 4,488
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9/11/2012 12:06:34 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
It's too early to predict accurately. At this point in the election cycle, Jimmy Carter was four points ahead of Reagan and Michael Dukakis was 17 points ahead of Bush the Elder.

Obama has been such a stunning failure in turning around the economy, I still think Romney will win. But I'm not sure. The promise of free stuff paid for by someone else has enormous vote getting power.
Apollo.11
Posts: 3,478
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9/11/2012 10:08:46 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Why do you have Romney winning Ohio, NC, or Florida?

And why do you have Obama winning Colorado? That's not happening this go-around.
Sapere Aude!
16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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9/11/2012 10:14:34 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
I have been tracking state polls and such, and have done this before. It's a statistical tie, and Romney is actually gaining in the states he needs.

It's close, but (with current polls) Obama squeezes a win. However if we go by trends Romney wins.
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
Contra
Posts: 3,941
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9/11/2012 10:44:31 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Currently, Obama is winning. Whether it stays that way is questionable. The economy will remain sore, and the Fed may buy more bonds but I highly doubt that will have any effect on the economy (Fed has tripled money supply since 2008).

Romney has a shot of winning, I think it will depend on how people think the country will go under each president (an area where Romney needs to catch up), and it will depend on the debates, as undecided voters usually tend to watch these.
"The solution [for Republicans] is to admit that Bush was a bad president, stop this racist homophobic stuff, stop trying to give most of the tax cuts to the rich, propose a real alternative to Obamacare that actually works, and propose smart free market solutions to our economic problems." - Distraff

"Americans are better off in a dynamic, free-enterprise-based economy that fosters economic growth, opportunity and upward mobility." - Paul Ryan
16kadams
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9/11/2012 11:18:36 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Using state polls:

http://www.270towin.com...

You might ask, why is Ohio and Michigan red? I used trends (Romney is not changing it to lean or solid yet, no change happened this weak, but he made those states either slightly move towards him or more votes go undecided. So based on that I made them red.)

However when I have Michagan to Obama we got 263 - 275, Romney win.
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
RoyLatham
Posts: 4,488
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9/12/2012 11:01:31 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
I've heard some interesting comments on the current polls by pollster Dick Morris. Morris was a political adviser to Clinton, but s now firmly right wing.

Morris argues that current polls are grossly oversampling Democrats. He went down the list and all but one had way more Democrats than the percentage in the national population. The one that didn't had Romney firmly in the lead.

Morris also claimed that all the polls are using the turnout model from the 2008 election where many more Blacks, Hispanics, and young people voted than usual. Morris argues that Obama fever is now quelled and voter turnout is likely to return to the norms.

Morris also points out that the undecided vote usually breaks heavily to the challenger.

So Morris thinks Romney would win if the election were held today. I don't know, but it does seem that polls are now important enough a part of the political process that they are being corrupted to produce "the right answer."
Microsuck
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9/12/2012 11:14:06 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 9/11/2012 10:08:46 PM, Apollo.11 wrote:
Why do you have Romney winning Ohio, NC, or Florida?

And why do you have Obama winning Colorado? That's not happening this go-around.

49-46 Obama winning Colorodo --> http://www.270towin.com...

I made the map based on polls
Wall of Fail

Devil worship much? - SD
Newsflash: Atheists do not believe in the Devil! - Me
Newsflash: I doesnt matter if you think you do or not.....You do - SD

"you [imabench] are very naive and so i do not consider your opinions as having any merit. you must still be in highschool" - falconduler
EricPrice
Posts: 79
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9/12/2012 11:32:04 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
Between 83% - 94% of all candidates for political office who have more money than their opponent win their election.

http://www.politifact.com...

This requires us to assume that the incumbent will usually present a credible campaign, as the incumbent will have access to the resources that come with their office. These resources should be considered a source of "outreach" that the challenger will need to pay for. We are not required to assume the same thing will be true of any particular challenger.

Therefore, I am forced to ascribe an 83% - 94% probability that President Obama will be re-elected.
RoyLatham
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9/12/2012 11:54:12 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 9/12/2012 11:32:04 AM, EricPrice wrote:
Between 83% - 94% of all candidates for political office who have more money than their opponent win their election.

http://www.politifact.com...

This requires us to assume that the incumbent will usually present a credible campaign, as the incumbent will have access to the resources that come with their office. These resources should be considered a source of "outreach" that the challenger will need to pay for. We are not required to assume the same thing will be true of any particular challenger.

Therefore, I am forced to ascribe an 83% - 94% probability that President Obama will be re-elected.

So far this time around the Republicans have more money. Obama had the big money in the last election, but not now. Wall Street supported Obama in the last election, but that major source of funds is going to Romney this time. Democrats did raise slightly more than Romney in August, and they claim they will surge ahead in fundraising in the next two months, but it hasn't happened yet.

Obama has spent far more time fundraising than any other president in history. By mid-summer he had hosted more fundraisers than all the recent presidents combined. He has been devoting nearly full time to campaigning since last November.
bossyburrito
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9/12/2012 12:31:51 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
#UnbanTheMadman

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innomen
Posts: 10,052
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9/12/2012 2:19:36 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Rasmussen has the best track record with tracking polls.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com...

It's still too close. STates like Wisconsin and New Mexico are now in play, so it gets more murky the closer we get. Much will be determined by the debates.

IMO - neither are great at debating, off the cuff statements. Romney comes off as a bit stiff, and Obama doesn't handle a non - teleprompter event well.
EricPrice
Posts: 79
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9/12/2012 2:29:52 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 9/12/2012 11:54:12 AM, RoyLatham wrote:
At 9/12/2012 11:32:04 AM, EricPrice wrote:
Between 83% - 94% of all candidates for political office who have more money than their opponent win their election.

http://www.politifact.com...

This requires us to assume that the incumbent will usually present a credible campaign, as the incumbent will have access to the resources that come with their office. These resources should be considered a source of "outreach" that the challenger will need to pay for. We are not required to assume the same thing will be true of any particular challenger.

Therefore, I am forced to ascribe an 83% - 94% probability that President Obama will be re-elected.

So far this time around the Republicans have more money. Obama had the big money in the last election, but not now. Wall Street supported Obama in the last election, but that major source of funds is going to Romney this time. Democrats did raise slightly more than Romney in August, and they claim they will surge ahead in fundraising in the next two months, but it hasn't happened yet.

Obama has spent far more time fundraising than any other president in history. By mid-summer he had hosted more fundraisers than all the recent presidents combined. He has been devoting nearly full time to campaigning since last November.

I agree with all of these observations.

However, to clarify my position, I am also calculating in the unique abilities that Obama has as a result of his status as President: he can command media attention, for free, at will - which is an ability that Mr. Romney does not enjoy. In order to occupy the same degree of outreach as The President has, Mr. Romney must spend money.

I am not going to try and place a dollar figure on this ability of the President. However, I am confident that any such figure would place his campaign resources somewhat ahead of Romney's.

But, I agree that, if we exclude this secial ability of the incumbent, then Romney is outraising Obama.
EricPrice
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9/12/2012 2:38:57 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 9/12/2012 2:19:36 PM, innomen wrote:
Rasmussen has the best track record with tracking polls.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com...

It's still too close. STates like Wisconsin and New Mexico are now in play, so it gets more murky the closer we get. Much will be determined by the debates.

IMO - neither are great at debating, off the cuff statements. Romney comes off as a bit stiff, and Obama doesn't handle a non - teleprompter event well.

Mr. Obama does not use a teleprompter as often as is supposed. The myth that Obama cannot speak well without one is an ad homen attempt to minimize his oratorical skills.

Here is a link that demonstrates what percentage of races are won by the incumbent: http://www.opensecrets.org...

Here is a study that explains the percentage of races that are won by the side with the most resources to dedicate towards a campaign; http://www.politifact.com...
imabench
Posts: 21,210
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9/12/2012 2:42:01 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
I believe its going to come down to three states, Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina. Whoever wins two of those three states will win the election (in my opinion)
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
innomen
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9/12/2012 3:30:57 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 9/12/2012 2:38:57 PM, EricPrice wrote:
At 9/12/2012 2:19:36 PM, innomen wrote:
Rasmussen has the best track record with tracking polls.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com...

It's still too close. STates like Wisconsin and New Mexico are now in play, so it gets more murky the closer we get. Much will be determined by the debates.

IMO - neither are great at debating, off the cuff statements. Romney comes off as a bit stiff, and Obama doesn't handle a non - teleprompter event well.

Mr. Obama does not use a teleprompter as often as is supposed. The myth that Obama cannot speak well without one is an ad homen attempt to minimize his oratorical skills.

Here is a link that demonstrates what percentage of races are won by the incumbent: http://www.opensecrets.org...

Here is a study that explains the percentage of races that are won by the side with the most resources to dedicate towards a campaign; http://www.politifact.com...

Mr. Obama without a teleprompter is prone to be more candid than is politik and it has cost him.

The number of democrats to win reelection isn't so good if you back out Clinton. You actually have to go back as far as Roosevelt.
thett3
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9/12/2012 5:57:15 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 9/11/2012 10:14:46 PM, Apollo.11 wrote:
Sort of Pro-Obama, but here it is:
http://www.270towin.com...

Even if Obama loses Florida, he can still win if he gets NC.

The chances of Obama winning NC while losing Virginia or Florida or Iowa are pretty much nil.

I predict a pretty narrow Obama win, although it could go either way. http://www.270towin.com...

Swing Wisconsin, Michigan, or Ohio and Romney wins narrowly.
DDO Vice President

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: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
Ultra
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9/12/2012 8:28:46 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
I honestly cannot see Romney winning Florida. With Congressman Ryan now on the ticket, the senior vote is probably going to be heavily tilted towards Obama.

Also, I think Obama will win both Virginia and North Carolina by slim margins, similar to 08.

All in all, the Ultrameter predicts a decisive victory by Obama.
imabench
Posts: 21,210
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9/12/2012 9:12:17 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 9/12/2012 8:28:46 PM, Ultra wrote:
I honestly cannot see Romney winning Florida. With Congressman Ryan now on the ticket, the senior vote is probably going to be heavily tilted towards Obama.

With the propaganda that Ryans plan will end medicare as we know it out there, I doubt they will hop on board the Romney train.

Also, I think Obama will win both Virginia and North Carolina by slim margins, similar to 08.

All in all, the Ultrameter predicts a decisive victory by Obama.
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
thett3
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9/12/2012 10:10:16 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 9/12/2012 8:28:46 PM, Ultra wrote:
I honestly cannot see Romney winning Florida. With Congressman Ryan now on the ticket, the senior vote is probably going to be heavily tilted towards Obama.

Also, I think Obama will win both Virginia and North Carolina by slim margins, similar to 08.

All in all, the Ultrameter predicts a decisive victory by Obama.

You're out of your mind. There's pretty much a 0% chance that Obama will carry NC again. Anyone who thinks Obama will once again win a state he won by 14,000 votes last time when things were just about perfect for democrats is being foolish. Virginia maybe, but NC no way--the only polls showing Obama even close are propaganda polls from PPP and the actual election results will probably be even more republican since they're more likely to vote in this election.
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
Apollo.11
Posts: 3,478
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9/12/2012 10:55:28 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
NC, Virginia, and Colorado are going to be very tough for Obama to win.

Ohio, Florida, and NM will be moderately difficult for Romney to win.

Obama has more (and significantly so) electoral votes in the bag, so he has fewer swing states to win.
Sapere Aude!
Contra
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9/12/2012 11:22:29 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 9/12/2012 10:55:28 PM, Apollo.11 wrote:
NC, Virginia, and Colorado are going to be very tough for Obama to win.

Ohio, Florida, and NM will be moderately difficult for Romney to win.

Obama has more (and significantly so) electoral votes in the bag, so he has fewer swing states to win.

I thought because of housing prices, Romney would have an edge in Florida. I thought Obama would win Colorado, maybe not this cycle.
"The solution [for Republicans] is to admit that Bush was a bad president, stop this racist homophobic stuff, stop trying to give most of the tax cuts to the rich, propose a real alternative to Obamacare that actually works, and propose smart free market solutions to our economic problems." - Distraff

"Americans are better off in a dynamic, free-enterprise-based economy that fosters economic growth, opportunity and upward mobility." - Paul Ryan
16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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9/12/2012 11:24:07 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 9/12/2012 11:32:04 AM, EricPrice wrote:
Between 83% - 94% of all candidates for political office who have more money than their opponent win their election.

http://www.politifact.com...

This requires us to assume that the incumbent will usually present a credible campaign, as the incumbent will have access to the resources that come with their office. These resources should be considered a source of "outreach" that the challenger will need to pay for. We are not required to assume the same thing will be true of any particular challenger.

Therefore, I am forced to ascribe an 83% - 94% probability that President Obama will be re-elected.

Doesn't Romney have more funds right now?
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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9/12/2012 11:35:55 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 9/12/2012 8:28:46 PM, Ultra wrote:
I honestly cannot see Romney winning Florida. With Congressman Ryan now on the ticket, the senior vote is probably going to be heavily tilted towards Obama.

Also, I think Obama will win both Virginia and North Carolina by slim margins, similar to 08.

All in all, the Ultrameter predicts a decisive victory by Obama.

I think Ryan actually gave Romney a Bump in Florida, I think st week he rose 1% in the state (50-50 now I think)
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
imabench
Posts: 21,210
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9/12/2012 11:40:31 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 9/12/2012 11:35:55 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 9/12/2012 8:28:46 PM, Ultra wrote:
I honestly cannot see Romney winning Florida. With Congressman Ryan now on the ticket, the senior vote is probably going to be heavily tilted towards Obama.

Also, I think Obama will win both Virginia and North Carolina by slim margins, similar to 08.

All in all, the Ultrameter predicts a decisive victory by Obama.

I think Ryan actually gave Romney a Bump in Florida, I think st week he rose 1% in the state (50-50 now I think)

Doesnt smell like it to me down here in Miami, cant say the same for the rest of Florida though
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
Ultra
Posts: 47
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9/13/2012 6:50:59 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 9/12/2012 10:10:16 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 9/12/2012 8:28:46 PM, Ultra wrote:
I honestly cannot see Romney winning Florida. With Congressman Ryan now on the ticket, the senior vote is probably going to be heavily tilted towards Obama.

Also, I think Obama will win both Virginia and North Carolina by slim margins, similar to 08.

All in all, the Ultrameter predicts a decisive victory by Obama.

You're out of your mind. There's pretty much a 0% chance that Obama will carry NC again. Anyone who thinks Obama will once again win a state he won by 14,000 votes last time when things were just about perfect for democrats is being foolish. Virginia maybe, but NC no way--the only polls showing Obama even close are propaganda polls from PPP and the actual election results will probably be even more republican since they're more likely to vote in this election.

Classic "I have no argument" argument. Propaganda Polls! Its the liberal media elites that are in control of the polls and lying!