Total Posts:19|Showing Posts:1-19
Jump to topic:

Presidential Debate Put Into Perspective.

FREEDO
Posts: 21,057
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
10/4/2012 4:16:07 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
FREEDO's-Lie-Detector-O-Matic

Romney:
"We've got 23 million people out of work or stopped looking for work in this country."

Result: Mostly False.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics puts the number of unemployed, not counting those who aren't seeking work, at 12.8 million and the number of those who haven't sought work in the last 12 months at 2.5 million. Where Romney gets the rest of the number is from also including the 8.2 million people who are working part time and are seeking further work.

Obama:
"Over the last 30 months, we've seen 5 million jobs in the private sector created."

Result: True.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that 5.1 million jobs have actually been created in the last 30 months. This does not count 676,000 public sector jobs that have been cut.

Romney:
"Gasoline prices have doubled under the president. Electric rates are up. Food prices are up. Health care costs have gone up by $2,500 a family."

Result: Mostly True.

According to a May study by Sentier Research, an Annapolis-based research firm, real median American income in March was down by $4,300 since January 2009, when President Obama took office.

The statement that gas prices "have doubled under the president" is misleading. The average current gas price is $3.78, slightly more than twice the average gas price the week that the president took office in January. But that figure - an average of $1.85 on January 19, 2009, according to Consumer Reports -- was exceptionally low due to the economic crisis, when prices fell as a result of low demand. According to the American Automobile Association, the average national gas price was just 16 cents lower than it is now -- $3.62 -- on October 1, 2008.

According to a 2012 survey from the Kaiser Family Foundation analyzing employee health benefits, Romney is approximately correct: Since Obama took office, the average annual premium for family coverage through an employer has risen from $13,375 in 2009 to $15,745 in 2012, an increase of $2,370 over the past four years.

Obama:
"The problem is that because the voucher wouldn"t necessarily keep up with health care inflation, it was estimated this would cost the average senior $6,000 a year."

Result: Mostly False.

This is addressing Paul Ryan's medicare plan. It is based on an out of date Congressional Budget Office report on Ryan's plan which has since been altered. I couldn't find anything on the numbers for his new plan, but it seems it would be very similar.

Romney:
"Your Administration has cut the numbers of permit and licenses in half."

Result: Mostly False.

Addressing oil and gas companies. The Bureau of Land Management reports that they have decreased between 20 and 37%.

Obama:
"But under Governor Romney"s definition, there are a whole bunch of millionaires and billionaires who are small businesses. Donald Trump is a small business."

Result: Half True.

Romney's plan counts a "small business" only according to number of workers and not income. The number being 500 and less. Any business with 500 or less, including multi-million dollar companies, will be counted as a "small business" and see a tax reduction of 20%.

The Trump Organization, however, has well over 500 employees.

Romney:
"Right now the CBO says up to 20 million people will lose their insurance as Obamacare goes into effect next year."

Result: False.

The Congressional Budget Office just doesn't say that.

Obama:
"I put forward a specific $4 trillion deficit reduction plan."

Results: Mostly False.

The "$4 trillion plan" he is referring to includes about $1 trillion Congress has already agreed to and $1 trillion in savings from ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, which are already ending.

Romney:
"The President supports taking $716 billion out of that program."

Results: False.

Addressing medicare. The president reduced $716 billion spending on medicare throughout the next 10 years, with the Affordable Care Act. It is not being taken out of the current medicare. It already occurred. And it also extends the life of medicare. Medicare doesn't even have 716 billion to take out, it only has a current budget of 244 billion.

Obama:
"But I have said that for incomes over $250,000 a year, that we should go back to the rates that we had when Bill Clinton was president."

Result: Half True

He is referring to his plan to allow the Bush tax cuts to expire for higher-income taxpayers. The top federal income-tax rate would be allowed to rise from the current 35 percent to 39.6 percent, which was the rate that prevailed after Clinton"s 1993 tax increase, and before Bush"s tax cuts.

But he did not account for the new taxes on those same upper-income taxpayers included in his Affordable Care Act. Starting next year, there will be a new 3.8 percent tax on capital gains from the sale of stocks or real estate, dividends, interest income, annuities, rents and royalties. Also starting Jan. 1 is a new 0.9 percent Medicare surcharge on top of the current Medicare payroll tax.

-----

There is more material in my sources.

http://www.cbsnews.com...

http://abcnews.go.com...

http://factcheck.org...
GRAND POOBAH OF DDO

fnord
Wallstreetatheist
Posts: 7,132
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
10/4/2012 5:22:33 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
When has electoral politics been a bastion of truth? These people want to control our lives and enrich their friends.
DRUG HARM: http://imgur.com...
Primal Diet. Lifting. Reading. Psychedelics. Cold-Approach Pickup. Music.
GeoLaureate8
Posts: 12,252
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
10/4/2012 6:35:22 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
So 5 million private jobs were created, but 676,000 government workers were laid off?
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
10/4/2012 9:08:57 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/4/2012 7:01:30 PM, WriterSelbe wrote:
Eh. Could you plug links for your evidence?

For jobs,

http://data.bls.gov...
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
10/4/2012 9:16:12 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/4/2012 9:08:57 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 10/4/2012 7:01:30 PM, WriterSelbe wrote:
Eh. Could you plug links for your evidence?

For jobs,

http://data.bls.gov...

Now, going off this, we find that from the bottom of the collapse (feb 2010, as far as jobs go), there have only been 4.63 million private sector jobs created. From this same date (2/2010), there have been 571k government jobs cut. If we look to the peak of government jobs (4/2010), there have been 1.1 million cut (though that is just because so many were temp jobs for the survey thingy).
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
johnnyboy54
Posts: 6,362
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
10/4/2012 10:21:21 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Tell me if I am wrong, but the whole jobs thing really doesn't matter unless we get more information. For example, the private sector may have added 5 million jobs, but if 7 million people entered the workforce, that is still a net loss.

So unless we know that, I don't see how the whole 5 million jobs added thing matters.
I didn't order assholes with my whiskey.
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
10/4/2012 10:38:25 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/4/2012 10:21:21 PM, johnnyboy54 wrote:
Tell me if I am wrong, but the whole jobs thing really doesn't matter unless we get more information. For example, the private sector may have added 5 million jobs, but if 7 million people entered the workforce, that is still a net loss.

So unless we know that, I don't see how the whole 5 million jobs added thing matters.

Because job growth and population growth are independent from each other. I suppose you could say it is like running from a forest fire. If you run 1 mile, and the fire also goes 1 mile (we're assuming linear directions here), then the fire is still just as close to you and you are not any safer than you were (at least not any further from the fire) when you started. However, you are safer than if you just stayed put.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
johnnyboy54
Posts: 6,362
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
10/4/2012 10:56:09 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/4/2012 10:38:25 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 10/4/2012 10:21:21 PM, johnnyboy54 wrote:
Tell me if I am wrong, but the whole jobs thing really doesn't matter unless we get more information. For example, the private sector may have added 5 million jobs, but if 7 million people entered the workforce, that is still a net loss.

So unless we know that, I don't see how the whole 5 million jobs added thing matters.

Because job growth and population growth are independent from each other. I suppose you could say it is like running from a forest fire. If you run 1 mile, and the fire also goes 1 mile (we're assuming linear directions here), then the fire is still just as close to you and you are not any safer than you were (at least not any further from the fire) when you started. However, you are safer than if you just stayed put.

Well if unemployment remains at a constantly high rate, we can't say the improved job number are much of an improvement of the situation.

I do see your point though, but I just find the number in and of itself to mean very little.
I didn't order assholes with my whiskey.
Chaos88
Posts: 247
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
10/5/2012 1:28:39 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/4/2012 4:16:07 AM, FREEDO wrote:

Thanks for the analysis, Freedo.

Obama:
"But I have said that for incomes over $250,000 a year, that we should go back to the rates that we had when Bill Clinton was president."

Result: Half True

He is referring to his plan to allow the Bush tax cuts to expire for higher-income taxpayers. The top federal income-tax rate would be allowed to rise from the current 35 percent to 39.6 percent, which was the rate that prevailed after Clinton"s 1993 tax increase, and before Bush"s tax cuts.

But he did not account for the new taxes on those same upper-income taxpayers included in his Affordable Care Act. Starting next year, there will be a new 3.8 percent tax on capital gains from the sale of stocks or real estate, dividends, interest income, annuities, rents and royalties. Also starting Jan. 1 is a new 0.9 percent Medicare surcharge on top of the current Medicare payroll tax.

I would like to point out that I don't think it is fair to call the 0.9% additional Medicare tax a tax on the rich, as they are actually exempt. Unlike the normal Medicare tax, this additional tax is only paid on income up to a certain limit (I think it is around $200K) and employers do not pay a share.

So, to call this a tax on the rich, is like calling a bottom bracket increase a tax on the rich; they will pay it, but not because they are rich.
RoyLatham
Posts: 4,488
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
10/5/2012 10:59:22 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/4/2012 4:16:07 AM, FREEDO wrote:
FREEDO's-Lie-Detector-O-Matic

Romney:
"We've got 23 million people out of work or stopped looking for work in this country."

Result: Mostly False.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics puts the number of unemployed, not counting those who aren't seeking work, at 12.8 million and the number of those who haven't sought work in the last 12 months at 2.5 million. Where Romney gets the rest of the number is from also including the 8.2 million people who are working part time and are seeking further work.

Obama:
"Over the last 30 months, we've seen 5 million jobs in the private sector created."

Result: True.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that 5.1 million jobs have actually been created in the last 30 months. This does not count 676,000 public sector jobs that have been cut.

The gist of Romney's claim is correct. Not only are there millions of people who want full time jobs but are forced to make do with a series of part time jobs, but there are millions who have dropped out of the labor force entirely. If they haen't looked for work in te past 2 months, they aren'tcounted in the statistics cited. People are retiring even though they would rather work, they go on disability even though they would rather work, and there are some young people who give up and live in Mom's basement for a while. The labor force participation rate has dropped to the lowest point since the 1990 recession.

Each month about 150,000 people enter the work force due to population growth. So creating 5.1 million jobs means that unemployment does not drop. Last month, 114,000 hobs were created, well short of that needed on average to stay even. Unemployment drops by people giving up looking for jobs.

Economic growth has slowed each year that Obama has been in office. It is now below Cuba.
RoyLatham
Posts: 4,488
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
10/5/2012 11:10:37 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/4/2012 4:16:07 AM, FREEDO wrote:
"Your Administration has cut the numbers of permit and licenses in half."

Result: Mostly False.

Addressing oil and gas companies. The Bureau of Land Management reports that they have decreased between 20 and 37%.

It depends how you measure it. Obama immediately cancelled all the Atlantic coast leases that had been granted under Bush, and cancelled the oil shale development permits. The US has a trillion barrels of oil in oil shale that is being kept out of production.

Also, do you measure leases by the number of applications or the potential amount of oil they would yield. The large deep water drilling operations in the Gulf were slowed to a trickle.

Note that if drilling is prohibited entirely, then there is literally no decrease in the number of leases after that. It remains constant at zero.
RoyLatham
Posts: 4,488
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
10/5/2012 11:23:14 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/4/2012 4:16:07 AM, FREEDO wrote:

Romney:
"Right now the CBO says up to 20 million people will lose their insurance as Obamacare goes into effect next year."

Result: False.

The Congressional Budget Office just doesn't say that.

According to the Boston Globe,

"Romney hit back on health care, charging that "the CBO says up to 20 million people will lose their insurance as Obamacare goes into effect next year." But that huge number represents the upper limit of the Congressional Budget Office"s projection, and it is not an estimate for next year. The most likely scenario, according to the CBO, is that 3 to 5 million people will be moved off employer-sponsored insurance between 2019 and 2022."

Romney correctly stated that it was "up to." However, when Romney made the claim, he cited the fact that 4 million people would lose their Medicare Advantage insurance, which Obamacare abolishes. that responds to the Obama claim that "if you like what you have you'll get to keep it." those losing Advantage ill be moved to regular Medicare, so the still have insurance, it's just not as good.
yoda878
Posts: 902
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
10/5/2012 1:52:18 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Obama acted like he was just going threw the motions, to get thew.... I'm wondering if he even wants to be president another year.
Me
yoda878
Posts: 902
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
10/5/2012 1:55:02 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/5/2012 1:52:18 PM, yoda878 wrote:
Obama acted like he was just going threw the motions, to get threw.... I'm wondering if he even wants to be president another four years..

*fixed*
Me
Maikuru
Posts: 9,112
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
10/5/2012 2:18:26 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/5/2012 1:55:02 PM, yoda878 wrote:
At 10/5/2012 1:52:18 PM, yoda878 wrote:
Obama acted like he was just going threw the motions, to get threw.... I'm wondering if he even wants to be president another four years..

*fixed*

*through
"You assume I wouldn't want to burn this whole place to the ground."
- lamerde

https://i.imgflip.com...
Wallstreetatheist
Posts: 7,132
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
10/5/2012 3:05:29 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/5/2012 2:18:26 PM, Maikuru wrote:
At 10/5/2012 1:55:02 PM, yoda878 wrote:
At 10/5/2012 1:52:18 PM, yoda878 wrote:
Obama acted like he was just going threw the motions, to get threw.... I'm wondering if he even wants to be president another four years..

*fixed*

*through

(theta)reauooh*
DRUG HARM: http://imgur.com...
Primal Diet. Lifting. Reading. Psychedelics. Cold-Approach Pickup. Music.