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Presidental Polls

OberHerr
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10/8/2012 6:10:10 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Some polls I found on the presidential race. Averaging all of them, its pretty much dead center at this point.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com...
http://www.people-press.org...
http://www.gallup.com...
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000ike
Posts: 11,196
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10/8/2012 6:27:44 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
God please help Biden put out this outrageous fire....
"A stupid despot may constrain his slaves with iron chains; but a true politician binds them even more strongly with the chain of their own ideas" - Michel Foucault
OberHerr
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10/8/2012 6:31:24 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/8/2012 6:27:44 PM, 000ike wrote:
God please help Biden put out this outrageous fire....

Your really gonna put your hopes in Biden..............?

Good luck. :P
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16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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10/8/2012 6:52:58 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/8/2012 6:31:24 PM, OberHerr wrote:
At 10/8/2012 6:27:44 PM, 000ike wrote:
God please help Biden put out this outrageous fire....

Your really gonna put your hopes in Biden..............?

Good luck. :P

I don't think you should dismiss Biden
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
OberHerr
Posts: 13,062
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10/8/2012 6:55:06 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/8/2012 6:52:58 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 10/8/2012 6:31:24 PM, OberHerr wrote:
At 10/8/2012 6:27:44 PM, 000ike wrote:
God please help Biden put out this outrageous fire....

Your really gonna put your hopes in Biden..............?

Good luck. :P

I don't think you should dismiss Biden

I wouldn't if he was debating some lightweight. But have you seen Paul Ryan debate? He almost seems to have an obsession with getting all the facts and info possible about the subject. Plus, he's a great speaker.
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16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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10/8/2012 6:57:49 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/8/2012 6:55:06 PM, OberHerr wrote:
At 10/8/2012 6:52:58 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 10/8/2012 6:31:24 PM, OberHerr wrote:
At 10/8/2012 6:27:44 PM, 000ike wrote:
God please help Biden put out this outrageous fire....

Your really gonna put your hopes in Biden..............?

Good luck. :P

I don't think you should dismiss Biden

I wouldn't if he was debating some lightweight. But have you seen Paul Ryan debate? He almost seems to have an obsession with getting all the facts and info possible about the subject. Plus, he's a great speaker.

I am aware. But I don't think we should underestimate Biden, Romney went in expecting to lose (in our minds) and coming out victorious. Don't write off Biden, but I don't think he will win the debate. At most, he can tie it.
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
twocupcakes
Posts: 2,750
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10/8/2012 7:02:57 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/8/2012 6:57:49 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 10/8/2012 6:55:06 PM, OberHerr wrote:
At 10/8/2012 6:52:58 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 10/8/2012 6:31:24 PM, OberHerr wrote:
At 10/8/2012 6:27:44 PM, 000ike wrote:
God please help Biden put out this outrageous fire....

Your really gonna put your hopes in Biden..............?

Good luck. :P

I don't think you should dismiss Biden

I wouldn't if he was debating some lightweight. But have you seen Paul Ryan debate? He almost seems to have an obsession with getting all the facts and info possible about the subject. Plus, he's a great speaker.

I am aware. But I don't think we should underestimate Biden, Romney went in expecting to lose (in our minds) and coming out victorious. Don't write off Biden, but I don't think he will win the debate. At most, he can tie it.

They say that the person with the lowest expectations usually "wins" the debate. Might work for Biden haha
000ike
Posts: 11,196
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10/8/2012 7:04:37 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/8/2012 6:55:06 PM, OberHerr wrote:
At 10/8/2012 6:52:58 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 10/8/2012 6:31:24 PM, OberHerr wrote:
At 10/8/2012 6:27:44 PM, 000ike wrote:
God please help Biden put out this outrageous fire....

Your really gonna put your hopes in Biden..............?

Good luck. :P

I don't think you should dismiss Biden

I wouldn't if he was debating some lightweight. But have you seen Paul Ryan debate? He almost seems to have an obsession with getting all the facts and info possible about the subject. Plus, he's a great speaker.

You never know what will happen....I mean, no one ever accused Obama of being an exemplary debater, but no one expected him to do as badly as he did. Also, Joe Biden is known to be fierce in the debating arena (evidenced by his debates in 2007 primaries, which is why Obama picked him as the VP)....He's also a skilled and highly experienced politician that was running for president when Paul Ryan was in high school . I don't know how this massive age gap will manifest on stage, but I can't imagine it being that great for Ryan.

And to top it off, frankly, the Obama campaign has no where to go but up, Romney's no where but down, ... perhaps there was some strategic calculus in Obama's loss because now the national dynamic has placed some pressure on the Romney/Ryan ticket to maintain their temporary peak.
"A stupid despot may constrain his slaves with iron chains; but a true politician binds them even more strongly with the chain of their own ideas" - Michel Foucault
Lordknukle
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10/8/2012 7:06:55 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/8/2012 7:05:12 PM, twocupcakes wrote:
In-trade has Obama at 65% to win and Romney at 35%.

http://www.intrade.com...

So if you think these odds are wrong you can place a bet with odds on your favor.

Intrade has fvcked up horribly with this year's political/legal events.
"Easy is the descent to Avernus, for the door to the Underworld lies upon both day and night. But to retrace your steps and return to the breezes above- that's the task, that's the toil."
OberHerr
Posts: 13,062
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10/8/2012 7:07:02 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/8/2012 7:05:12 PM, twocupcakes wrote:
In-trade has Obama at 65% to win and Romney at 35%.

http://www.intrade.com...

So if you think these odds are wrong you can place a bet with odds on your favor.

If its that far off on either side, then you know thats an extremely unreliable source.
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twocupcakes
Posts: 2,750
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10/8/2012 7:09:55 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/8/2012 7:07:02 PM, OberHerr wrote:
At 10/8/2012 7:05:12 PM, twocupcakes wrote:
In-trade has Obama at 65% to win and Romney at 35%.

http://www.intrade.com...

So if you think these odds are wrong you can place a bet with odds on your favor.

If its that far off on either side, then you know thats an extremely unreliable source.

The odds are determined by "market bets". People sell shares of Obama and Romney that payoff at $10. Obama sells for $6.5, Romney for $3.5. So, if you think these odds are too high for Obama you should buy Romney shares or short Obama shares.
thett3
Posts: 14,371
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10/8/2012 7:10:19 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/8/2012 7:06:55 PM, Lordknukle wrote:
At 10/8/2012 7:05:12 PM, twocupcakes wrote:
In-trade has Obama at 65% to win and Romney at 35%.

http://www.intrade.com...

So if you think these odds are wrong you can place a bet with odds on your favor.

Intrade has fvcked up horribly with this year's political/legal events.

I do wonder sometimes if the investors there tend to have a left wing bias for some reason. Look at their predicted map, they predict Romney will lose every tossup state except NC (which is generally only a tossup in left leaning polls), even Florida and Virginia. I just dont see Obama winning in an electoral landslide like that with Romney only retaking 26 electoral votes but I guess we'll see

of course they confidently (and wrongly) predicted the individual mandate would be unconstitutional and Pawlenty or Portman to be Romneys VP so who knows
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OberHerr
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10/8/2012 7:14:00 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/8/2012 7:09:55 PM, twocupcakes wrote:
At 10/8/2012 7:07:02 PM, OberHerr wrote:
At 10/8/2012 7:05:12 PM, twocupcakes wrote:
In-trade has Obama at 65% to win and Romney at 35%.

http://www.intrade.com...

So if you think these odds are wrong you can place a bet with odds on your favor.

If its that far off on either side, then you know thats an extremely unreliable source.

The odds are determined by "market bets". People sell shares of Obama and Romney that payoff at $10. Obama sells for $6.5, Romney for $3.5. So, if you think these odds are too high for Obama you should buy Romney shares or short Obama shares.

Well, that explains it. It's just a stupid, anyone can vote sort of thing, with no real accountability. Like I said, unreliable.
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EvanK
Posts: 599
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10/8/2012 7:21:58 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/8/2012 6:31:24 PM, OberHerr wrote:
At 10/8/2012 6:27:44 PM, 000ike wrote:
God please help Biden put out this outrageous fire....

Your really gonna put your hopes in Biden..............?

Good luck. :P

What he said...^
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twocupcakes
Posts: 2,750
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10/8/2012 7:28:02 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/8/2012 7:14:00 PM, OberHerr wrote:
At 10/8/2012 7:09:55 PM, twocupcakes wrote:
At 10/8/2012 7:07:02 PM, OberHerr wrote:
At 10/8/2012 7:05:12 PM, twocupcakes wrote:
In-trade has Obama at 65% to win and Romney at 35%.

http://www.intrade.com...

So if you think these odds are wrong you can place a bet with odds on your favor.

If its that far off on either side, then you know thats an extremely unreliable source.

The odds are determined by "market bets". People sell shares of Obama and Romney that payoff at $10. Obama sells for $6.5, Romney for $3.5. So, if you think these odds are too high for Obama you should buy Romney shares or short Obama shares.

Well, that explains it. It's just a stupid, anyone can vote sort of thing, with no real accountability. Like I said, unreliable.

Well in this case people have to buy shares to "vote". Right now there is no one willing to put $3.51 up for a chance at $10, if Romney wins. Anyone can vote, but it is a good source because people have to put their money where their mouth is.
OberHerr
Posts: 13,062
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10/8/2012 7:31:24 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/8/2012 7:28:02 PM, twocupcakes wrote:
At 10/8/2012 7:14:00 PM, OberHerr wrote:
At 10/8/2012 7:09:55 PM, twocupcakes wrote:
At 10/8/2012 7:07:02 PM, OberHerr wrote:
At 10/8/2012 7:05:12 PM, twocupcakes wrote:
In-trade has Obama at 65% to win and Romney at 35%.

http://www.intrade.com...

So if you think these odds are wrong you can place a bet with odds on your favor.

If its that far off on either side, then you know thats an extremely unreliable source.

The odds are determined by "market bets". People sell shares of Obama and Romney that payoff at $10. Obama sells for $6.5, Romney for $3.5. So, if you think these odds are too high for Obama you should buy Romney shares or short Obama shares.

Well, that explains it. It's just a stupid, anyone can vote sort of thing, with no real accountability. Like I said, unreliable.

Well in this case people have to buy shares to "vote". Right now there is no one willing to put $3.51 up for a chance at $10, if Romney wins. Anyone can vote, but it is a good source because people have to put their money where their mouth is.

Or people just don't wanna gamble? It's still unreliable as hell.
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PARADIGM_L0ST
Posts: 6,958
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10/8/2012 7:52:19 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/8/2012 6:27:44 PM, 000ike wrote:
God please help Biden put out this outrageous fire....:
"Have you ever considered suicide? If not, please do." -- Mouthwash (to Inferno)
PARADIGM_L0ST
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10/8/2012 7:56:39 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Aw, what the hell, let's just throws these beauties in there too
"Have you ever considered suicide? If not, please do." -- Mouthwash (to Inferno)
twocupcakes
Posts: 2,750
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10/8/2012 8:06:49 PM
Posted: 4 years ago

Or people just don't wanna gamble? It's still unreliable as hell.

http://sports.bodog.ca...

Bodog is paying out $1.34 for $1 bet on an Obama win, and $3.3 for Romney. So a 74% chance that Obama wins and 30% chance of Romney winning. (does not equal 100% cause Bodog makes a profit). It may not be reliable, but gambling sites have to risk money when they give odds while other sites do not.
imabench
Posts: 21,229
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10/8/2012 8:37:28 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
am i the only one who thinks that people wont give a sh*t about the vice presidential debate and that in a month when the election comes nobody will even remember it?
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OberHerr
Posts: 13,062
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10/8/2012 8:46:17 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/8/2012 8:06:49 PM, twocupcakes wrote:

Or people just don't wanna gamble? It's still unreliable as hell.

http://sports.bodog.ca...

Bodog is paying out $1.34 for $1 bet on an Obama win, and $3.3 for Romney. So a 74% chance that Obama wins and 30% chance of Romney winning. (does not equal 100% cause Bodog makes a profit). It may not be reliable, but gambling sites have to risk money when they give odds while other sites do not.

But you see, its not based off of any real data on the populations opinion, and therefore is a pointless comparison to use for polls
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OberHerr
Posts: 13,062
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10/8/2012 8:46:50 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/8/2012 8:37:28 PM, imabench wrote:
am i the only one who thinks that people wont give a sh*t about the vice presidential debate and that in a month when the election comes nobody will even remember it?

Yeah, probably. :P

But, who knows? Maybe Biden will do another racist gaffe.
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twocupcakes
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10/8/2012 9:01:42 PM
Posted: 4 years ago

But you see, its not based off of any real data on the populations opinion, and therefore is a pointless comparison to use for polls

These odds don't really give information about what percent will vote for you, but measure the odds of each person winning. They probably consider the polls before they give odds.
OberHerr
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10/8/2012 9:03:22 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/8/2012 9:01:42 PM, twocupcakes wrote:

But you see, its not based off of any real data on the populations opinion, and therefore is a pointless comparison to use for polls

These odds don't really give information about what percent will vote for you, but measure the odds of each person winning. They probably consider the polls before they give odds.

Doubt it.
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twocupcakes
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10/8/2012 9:12:15 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/8/2012 9:03:22 PM, OberHerr wrote:
At 10/8/2012 9:01:42 PM, twocupcakes wrote:

But you see, its not based off of any real data on the populations opinion, and therefore is a pointless comparison to use for polls

These odds don't really give information about what percent will vote for you, but measure the odds of each person winning. They probably consider the polls before they give odds.

Doubt it.

https://data.intrade.com...

http://www.gallup.com...

Comparing the gallup pole, to the intrade shares, they both go up in may july and september. definitly a correlation.
OberHerr
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10/8/2012 9:14:27 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/8/2012 9:12:15 PM, twocupcakes wrote:
At 10/8/2012 9:03:22 PM, OberHerr wrote:
At 10/8/2012 9:01:42 PM, twocupcakes wrote:

But you see, its not based off of any real data on the populations opinion, and therefore is a pointless comparison to use for polls

These odds don't really give information about what percent will vote for you, but measure the odds of each person winning. They probably consider the polls before they give odds.

Doubt it.

https://data.intrade.com...

http://www.gallup.com...


Comparing the gallup pole, to the intrade shares, they both go up in may july and september. definitly a correlation.

Their conclusions are still clearly biased.
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Official Enforcer for the DDO Elite(if they existed).

"Cases are anti-town." - FourTrouble

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