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Who is Gary Johnson helping/hurting?

Ore_Ele
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10/9/2012 12:11:58 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
Let's say that a number of mysterious donors (I'll let Geo write up the conspiracy theories for the dark and evil back story), send tens of millions of dollars Gary Johnson's way, allowing him to get his message out to voters all across the country. Now, tens of millions of dollars is likely too little too late for 2012, but it would definitely give him a solid boost, to where he might get 10% of the vote rather than 2% (or whatever you think he's gonna get).

The question I have, is where would those extra votes that he get likely be coming from if he didn't get that money (i.e. in the real world)?

Truly, there are only 4 places they can come from (though it will be a bit from each).

1) Obama voters (meaning, that without his message getting out, these people would vote for Obama instead).
2) Romney voters
3) Other third party candidates
4) People who would not have voted if not for Gary

Depending on where you think these votes would come from, don't think it might be a good idea for Obama or Romney to invest some money in him to take votes from the other guy?
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Ore_Ele
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10/9/2012 12:12:28 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
InB4 someone says "they don't own your votes so he isn't TAKING them!!!!"
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Wallstreetatheist
Posts: 7,132
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10/9/2012 12:26:53 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
It's kind of difficult to say, really. There are the culturally conservative socialists of the Republican Party who will vote for it their entire lives. There are the minimally socially liberal socialists of the Democratic Party who will vote for it their entire lives.

Then there's everybody else: people who don't vote for tyrants and people who are disillusioned people who only vote for the lesser of the two evils (or the one with the most advertising money).

If Gary Johnson had more campaign money than everyone else, combined with great speaking skills and charisma than the two puppet candidates, he would win. I have little doubt. He wants to end the wars, legalize marijuana and gay marriage, balance the budget by 2014, free 2nd amendment gun rights, repeal acts that undermine our liberties (PATRIOT Act, etc), and many other positions that make him the best candidate on the issues. That was also validated by iSideWith.com http://garyjohnsongrassrootsblog.blogspot.com... Click "Here is the spreadsheet."

But, he has the backing of no major banks, labor unions, and other collusive entities, so in the real-world it is currently unlikely that a candidate who is the most agreeable and forward-thinking on the issues, most defensive of your personal freedoms, and most responsible on the economy gets elected. Just look at what they did to Ron Paul.
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Ore_Ele
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10/9/2012 12:30:01 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/9/2012 12:26:53 AM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
It's kind of difficult to say, really. There are the culturally conservative socialists of the Republican Party who will vote for it their entire lives. There are the minimally socially liberal socialists of the Democratic Party who will vote for it their entire lives.

Then there's everybody else: people who don't vote for tyrants and people who are disillusioned people who only vote for the lesser of the two evils (or the one with the most advertising money).

If Gary Johnson had more campaign money than everyone else, combined with great speaking skills and charisma than the two puppet candidates, he would win. I have little doubt. He wants to end the wars, legalize marijuana and gay marriage, balance the budget by 2014, free 2nd amendment gun rights, repeal acts that undermine our liberties (PATRIOT Act, etc), and many other positions that make him the best candidate on the issues. That was also validated by iSideWith.com http://garyjohnsongrassrootsblog.blogspot.com... Click "Here is the spreadsheet."

But, he has the backing of no major banks, labor unions, and other collusive entities, so in the real-world it is currently unlikely that a candidate who is the most agreeable and forward-thinking on the issues, most defensive of your personal freedoms, and most responsible on the economy gets elected. Just look at what they did to Ron Paul.

Congrats, you completely dodged the presented questioned and instead pimped Johnson. You're entire post was nothing more than "I have no idea, but Gary Johnson is the best thing sliced bread."
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Wallstreetatheist
Posts: 7,132
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10/9/2012 12:32:25 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
And also there's an inherent problem in electing a Libertarian candidate to the presidency: the more Libertarian someone becomes, the more they understand that the system cannot be changed from the inside, and especially not through voting. The end result of Libertarian thinking is the morally tenable system: anarchy. So, if Libertarian Anarchists did believe in voting, they'd garner much more support for the candidates. It's just another point to keep in mind.
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Wallstreetatheist
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10/9/2012 12:38:41 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/9/2012 12:30:01 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
Congrats, you completely dodged the presented questioned and instead pimped Johnson. You're entire post was nothing more than "I have no idea, but Gary Johnson is the best thing sliced bread."

There is no need to be disrespectful; you could have alternatively asked me a follow up question or demonstrate where you think I went off course. Also, it wasn't a dodge because the question wasn't directed at me, I volunteered to answer. Further, you asked where the votes would come from, I answered that they would come from those who are disillusioned with the two party and those who do not vote for the candidates of the collusion between government and banks, MIC, labor unions. The answer to your second question was that the candidate who directly advertises for himself wins the most from disillusioned voters who vote for the lesser of the two evils.

Do you want me to elucidate anything else I've said?
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Ore_Ele
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10/9/2012 12:42:12 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/9/2012 12:38:41 AM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
At 10/9/2012 12:30:01 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
Congrats, you completely dodged the presented questioned and instead pimped Johnson. You're entire post was nothing more than "I have no idea, but Gary Johnson is the best thing sliced bread."

There is no need to be disrespectful; you could have alternatively asked me a follow up question or demonstrate where you think I went off course. Also, it wasn't a dodge because the question wasn't directed at me, I volunteered to answer. Further, you asked where the votes would come from, I answered that they would come from those who are disillusioned with the two party and those who do not vote for the candidates of the collusion between government and banks, MIC, labor unions. The answer to your second question was that the candidate who directly advertises for himself wins the most from disillusioned voters who vote for the lesser of the two evils.

Do you want me to elucidate anything else I've said?

Yes, what group (or make up of groups) do you think the "disillusion voters" come from? Or do you believe the 4 options presented are not all inclusive?
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Wallstreetatheist
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10/9/2012 1:07:58 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/9/2012 12:42:12 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
Yes, what group (or make up of groups) do you think the "disillusion voters" come from? Or do you believe the 4 options presented are not all inclusive?

I don't have the knowledge to demonstrate which groups would likely make up the disillusioned group and in what proportion, only that it would likely be somewhat equal. I think the vast majority of people are disappointed with government in general. I mean, Bush ---> Obama back-to-back terrible presidents? People know their increase of their standard of living is decelerating, and likely stagnating; all that's left for them to find out is the solutions to their problems. A powerful, articulate voice on the issues we care about with a tremendous grass roots backing could beat either puppet candidate; however, again, it's not likely under the current system.
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FREEDO
Posts: 21,057
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10/9/2012 4:33:37 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Everyone approaches this issue from the wrong way.

Most people think that Johnson hurts Romney. But the only possible candidate that Johnson can hurt is Obama. I'll explain.

America does not use a popular vote system for president. It uses the electoral college. All research suggests that Obama will receive more electorates that Romney. That's just the way it's going to be. But getting the most delegates does not assure victory. To win, a candidate needs to get at least 270. It's not absolutely certain that Obama will get that. So it doesn't matter how many votes Johnson takes away from Romney. It only matters how many he takes away from Obama. As well as Jill Stein of the Green Party. When no candidate has the required amount of delegates, the constitution designates that congress will decide on the winner. Democrats control congress but Republicans control the house.

So, frankly, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are Romney's only chance for getting elected.
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fnord
16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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10/10/2012 9:30:53 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/9/2012 12:26:53 AM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
It's kind of difficult to say, really. There are the culturally conservative socialists of the Republican Party who will vote for it their entire lives. There are the minimally socially liberal socialists of the Democratic Party who will vote for it their entire lives.

Then there's everybody else: people who don't vote for tyrants and people who are disillusioned people who only vote for the lesser of the two evils (or the one with the most advertising money).

If Gary Johnson had more campaign money than everyone else, combined with great speaking skills and charisma than the two puppet candidates, he would win. I have little doubt. He wants to end the wars, legalize marijuana and gay marriage, balance the budget by 2014, free 2nd amendment gun rights, repeal acts that undermine our liberties (PATRIOT Act, etc), and many other positions that make him the best candidate on the issues. That was also validated by iSideWith.com http://garyjohnsongrassrootsblog.blogspot.com... Click "Here is the spreadsheet."

That's a non-scientific poll... Good source.


But, he has the backing of no major banks, labor unions, and other collusive entities, so in the real-world it is currently unlikely that a candidate who is the most agreeable and forward-thinking on the issues, most defensive of your personal freedoms, and most responsible on the economy gets elected. Just look at what they did to Ron Paul.
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Wallstreetatheist
Posts: 7,132
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10/11/2012 2:14:38 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/10/2012 9:30:53 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 10/9/2012 12:26:53 AM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
That was also validated by iSideWith.com http://garyjohnsongrassrootsblog.blogspot.com... Click "Here is the spreadsheet."

That's a non-scientific poll... Good source.

With a sample size of over 1,000,000 unique users, I'd say it's pretty good. If you could point me toward a scientific poll with a similarly diverse set of options, I'd appreciate it.
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royalpaladin
Posts: 22,357
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10/11/2012 6:19:48 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/11/2012 2:14:38 AM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
At 10/10/2012 9:30:53 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 10/9/2012 12:26:53 AM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
That was also validated by iSideWith.com http://garyjohnsongrassrootsblog.blogspot.com... Click "Here is the spreadsheet."

That's a non-scientific poll... Good source.

With a sample size of over 1,000,000 unique users, I'd say it's pretty good. If you could point me toward a scientific poll with a similarly diverse set of options, I'd appreciate it.

Sample size is not the only factor in polls. That poll was administered to people on that random website, and they made an active choice to find the poll and respond (as opposed to being asked through phone or taking the poll passively). That means that the poll is incredibly biased.
Thaddeus
Posts: 6,985
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10/11/2012 6:28:18 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/11/2012 6:19:48 AM, royalpaladin wrote:
At 10/11/2012 2:14:38 AM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
At 10/10/2012 9:30:53 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 10/9/2012 12:26:53 AM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
That was also validated by iSideWith.com http://garyjohnsongrassrootsblog.blogspot.com... Click "Here is the spreadsheet."

That's a non-scientific poll... Good source.

With a sample size of over 1,000,000 unique users, I'd say it's pretty good. If you could point me toward a scientific poll with a similarly diverse set of options, I'd appreciate it.

Sample size is not the only factor in polls. That poll was administered to people on that random website, and they made an active choice to find the poll and respond (as opposed to being asked through phone or taking the poll passively). That means that the poll is incredibly biased.

Natch, this a criticism of most polls though - until they make a random non-voluntary poll, active choice is going to affect every poll. (How does one take a poll passively RP?)
royalpaladin
Posts: 22,357
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10/11/2012 6:33:04 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/11/2012 6:28:18 AM, Thaddeus wrote:
At 10/11/2012 6:19:48 AM, royalpaladin wrote:
At 10/11/2012 2:14:38 AM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
At 10/10/2012 9:30:53 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 10/9/2012 12:26:53 AM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
That was also validated by iSideWith.com http://garyjohnsongrassrootsblog.blogspot.com... Click "Here is the spreadsheet."

That's a non-scientific poll... Good source.

With a sample size of over 1,000,000 unique users, I'd say it's pretty good. If you could point me toward a scientific poll with a similarly diverse set of options, I'd appreciate it.

Sample size is not the only factor in polls. That poll was administered to people on that random website, and they made an active choice to find the poll and respond (as opposed to being asked through phone or taking the poll passively). That means that the poll is incredibly biased.

Natch, this a criticism of most polls though - until they make a random non-voluntary poll, active choice is going to affect every poll. (How does one take a poll passively RP?)

What I meant by "passive" was that the individual being polled does not actively seek to be included in the sample. If the polling group calls my home and requests that I take the poll, that would be "passive".

I wasn't sure what the statistical terms for these flaws are, so I just made some up :/ You know what I mean, however.
Thaddeus
Posts: 6,985
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10/11/2012 6:38:56 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/11/2012 6:33:04 AM, royalpaladin wrote:
At 10/11/2012 6:28:18 AM, Thaddeus wrote:
At 10/11/2012 6:19:48 AM, royalpaladin wrote:
At 10/11/2012 2:14:38 AM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
At 10/10/2012 9:30:53 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 10/9/2012 12:26:53 AM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
That was also validated by iSideWith.com http://garyjohnsongrassrootsblog.blogspot.com... Click "Here is the spreadsheet."

That's a non-scientific poll... Good source.

With a sample size of over 1,000,000 unique users, I'd say it's pretty good. If you could point me toward a scientific poll with a similarly diverse set of options, I'd appreciate it.

Sample size is not the only factor in polls. That poll was administered to people on that random website, and they made an active choice to find the poll and respond (as opposed to being asked through phone or taking the poll passively). That means that the poll is incredibly biased.

Natch, this a criticism of most polls though - until they make a random non-voluntary poll, active choice is going to affect every poll. (How does one take a poll passively RP?)

What I meant by "passive" was that the individual being polled does not actively seek to be included in the sample. If the polling group calls my home and requests that I take the poll, that would be "passive".

I wasn't sure what the statistical terms for these flaws are, so I just made some up :/ You know what I mean, however.

Cool beans. Your points are totally valid, but when they call you up the people who choose to hang up or not also does affect the poll too (obviously to a lesser extent).
If I can remember back to my IB days, I think its just called sample bias, or more specifically a self-selective sample.
royalpaladin
Posts: 22,357
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10/11/2012 6:42:43 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/11/2012 6:38:56 AM, Thaddeus wrote:
At 10/11/2012 6:33:04 AM, royalpaladin wrote:
At 10/11/2012 6:28:18 AM, Thaddeus wrote:
At 10/11/2012 6:19:48 AM, royalpaladin wrote:
At 10/11/2012 2:14:38 AM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
At 10/10/2012 9:30:53 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 10/9/2012 12:26:53 AM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
That was also validated by iSideWith.com http://garyjohnsongrassrootsblog.blogspot.com... Click "Here is the spreadsheet."

That's a non-scientific poll... Good source.

With a sample size of over 1,000,000 unique users, I'd say it's pretty good. If you could point me toward a scientific poll with a similarly diverse set of options, I'd appreciate it.

Sample size is not the only factor in polls. That poll was administered to people on that random website, and they made an active choice to find the poll and respond (as opposed to being asked through phone or taking the poll passively). That means that the poll is incredibly biased.

Natch, this a criticism of most polls though - until they make a random non-voluntary poll, active choice is going to affect every poll. (How does one take a poll passively RP?)

What I meant by "passive" was that the individual being polled does not actively seek to be included in the sample. If the polling group calls my home and requests that I take the poll, that would be "passive".

I wasn't sure what the statistical terms for these flaws are, so I just made some up :/ You know what I mean, however.

Cool beans. Your points are totally valid, but when they call you up the people who choose to hang up or not also does affect the poll too (obviously to a lesser extent).
That's true. To some extent, all polls are voluntary, but some methods introduce more bias than others.
If I can remember back to my IB days, I think its just called sample bias, or more specifically a self-selective sample.
Alright, thanks :)