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How The Election Looks So Far

1Historygenius
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10/21/2012 2:48:43 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
As of now Elephant Watcher has been completely 100% right. It predicted that Obama would do bad at the first debate and it has been correct. It still believes Romney has a better chance to win than Obama.

Here is how the RCP Average Looks:
RCP National: 0.2 (Obama)
This mainly because the Gallup and IBD/TIPP pollsters are on steroids and are not quite right.
Ohio: 2.1 (Obama)
Florida: 2.1 (Romney)
Virginia: Tie
New Hampshire: 1.0 (Romney)
Colorado: 0.2 (Romney)
Iowa: 2.1 (Obama)
Wisconsin: 2.8 (Obama)
North Carolina: 5.6 (Romney)
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1Historygenius
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10/21/2012 2:51:45 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
If Romney wins Ohio and Virginia then he wins the election.
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

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thett3
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10/21/2012 2:52:50 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Just pointing out that elephant watcher is super biased. I used to not think so, but when they reported on Romneys basically non existent convention bounce and failed to report on or change their projection based on Obamas very large and until recently unreversed convention bounce I knew something was up
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Apollo.11
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10/21/2012 2:53:54 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
If you give each candidate the states leaning toward them (based on RCP), and give Romney virginia (which is tied), Obama wins 274.
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000ike
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10/21/2012 2:56:27 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Here's a very interesting link Apollo showed me: http://elections.nytimes.com...

I'll be sure to bump this thread to laugh in your face when the election is over.
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Contra
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10/21/2012 3:00:59 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/21/2012 2:53:54 PM, Apollo.11 wrote:
If you give each candidate the states leaning toward them (based on RCP), and give Romney virginia (which is tied), Obama wins 274.

I think Ohio is just going to end up deciding how the election goes, or at least will be very critical for Obama's reelection (I bet he will end up with Ohio, unless there are any other October's surprises).
"The solution [for Republicans] is to admit that Bush was a bad president, stop this racist homophobic stuff, stop trying to give most of the tax cuts to the rich, propose a real alternative to Obamacare that actually works, and propose smart free market solutions to our economic problems." - Distraff

"Americans are better off in a dynamic, free-enterprise-based economy that fosters economic growth, opportunity and upward mobility." - Paul Ryan
Apollo.11
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10/21/2012 3:04:24 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/21/2012 3:00:59 PM, Contra wrote:
At 10/21/2012 2:53:54 PM, Apollo.11 wrote:
If you give each candidate the states leaning toward them (based on RCP), and give Romney virginia (which is tied), Obama wins 274.

I think Ohio is just going to end up deciding how the election goes, or at least will be very critical for Obama's reelection (I bet he will end up with Ohio, unless there are any other October's surprises).

Ohio has had one of the best recoveries of any state. Their auto-industry is doing great in cities like Toledo. Ohio's governor, a Republican, was even going around on Romney campaign rallies touting how great their economic recovery has been under Obama.
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JaxsonRaine
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10/21/2012 3:12:26 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/21/2012 3:09:52 PM, twocupcakes wrote:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...

Here is another electoral map. Obama seems ahead. I think Romney has to win Florida to have a chance. But, I think Obama will be re-elected.

Florida:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...
twocupcakes: 15 = 13
Contra
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10/21/2012 3:31:13 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/21/2012 3:09:52 PM, twocupcakes wrote:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...

Here is another electoral map. Obama seems ahead. I think Romney has to win Florida to have a chance. But, I think Obama will be re-elected.

The Huffington post has a liberal bias. Come on. CNN is better.
"The solution [for Republicans] is to admit that Bush was a bad president, stop this racist homophobic stuff, stop trying to give most of the tax cuts to the rich, propose a real alternative to Obamacare that actually works, and propose smart free market solutions to our economic problems." - Distraff

"Americans are better off in a dynamic, free-enterprise-based economy that fosters economic growth, opportunity and upward mobility." - Paul Ryan
1Historygenius
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10/21/2012 5:35:27 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/21/2012 2:52:50 PM, thett3 wrote:
Just pointing out that elephant watcher is super biased. I used to not think so, but when they reported on Romneys basically non existent convention bounce and failed to report on or change their projection based on Obamas very large and until recently unreversed convention bounce I knew something was up

They have not posted anything since September 7th, go look. Something happened to the editor. They post polls occasionally, but not daily.
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imabench
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10/21/2012 5:46:44 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
In my opinion its going to come down to Virginia, Florida, and Ohio. North Carolina will probably go to Romney and Michigan will probably go to Obama
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JaxsonRaine
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10/21/2012 5:49:40 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/21/2012 5:46:44 PM, imabench wrote:
In my opinion its going to come down to Virginia, Florida, and Ohio. North Carolina will probably go to Romney and Michigan will probably go to Obama

I think Ohio more than anything. Looks like Romney is going to get Florida.
twocupcakes: 15 = 13
Maikuru
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10/21/2012 9:48:00 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
It's going to be a squeaker. Nobody should feel comfortable. The camps certainly aren't.
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Contra
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10/21/2012 10:12:34 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/21/2012 5:46:44 PM, imabench wrote:
In my opinion its going to come down to Virginia, Florida, and Ohio. North Carolina will probably go to Romney and Michigan will probably go to Obama

I agree, though Romney will probably get Florida. Michigan is Romney's home state, but he will most likely lose here, and when he does, that should be embarrassing, even Walter Mondale won his home state vs. Reagan.
"The solution [for Republicans] is to admit that Bush was a bad president, stop this racist homophobic stuff, stop trying to give most of the tax cuts to the rich, propose a real alternative to Obamacare that actually works, and propose smart free market solutions to our economic problems." - Distraff

"Americans are better off in a dynamic, free-enterprise-based economy that fosters economic growth, opportunity and upward mobility." - Paul Ryan