Total Posts:6|Showing Posts:1-6
Jump to topic:

Most accurate polls

OberHerr
Posts: 13,062
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
10/23/2012 8:20:35 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
I tend to find that if in a presidential poll, the person is 5% ahead, its probably a bad poll. Not always, but often. The closer to the middle ones are generally better, like Rasmussen.
-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-OBERHERR'S SIGNATURE-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-

Official Enforcer for the DDO Elite(if they existed).

"Cases are anti-town." - FourTrouble

-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-
Numeros
Posts: 2
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
10/23/2012 8:33:19 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/23/2012 3:38:07 AM, innomen wrote:
Repeatedly Rasmussen comes out on top:

http://electoralmap.net...

And yet, it is rarely cited by the MSM (except for Fox).

There's good reason it's not cited by the MSM: it's completely wrong!

Click on the "local mirror" link in the "Data" section. The data used is long outdated information from November 12th, before all the ballots had been officially tallied. The Report Card has Obama winning by a spread of only 6.5 when, in fact, the spread was 7.3. It has Obama winning 52.6 to 46.1 when, in fact, Obama won 52.9 to 45.6. See page 5 of the official FEC election report for 2008 at http://www.fec.gov...

Fact: Obama won with a 7.3 spread, 52.9 to 45.6
Fact: Ipsos & CNN came closest with a 7-point spread, 53/46
Fact: Rasmussen underestimated Obama with a 6-point spread, 52/46
Fact: Rasmussen was not the most accurate pollster in 2008
innomen
Posts: 10,052
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
10/23/2012 10:19:59 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
"The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.

The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on pollster.com.

On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama"s strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points " 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama"s final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two " Rasmussen and Pew " were spot on."
inferno
Posts: 10,655
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
10/23/2012 10:29:36 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/23/2012 3:38:07 AM, innomen wrote:
Repeatedly Rasmussen comes out on top:

http://electoralmap.net...

And yet, it is rarely cited by the MSM (except for Fox).

Rasmussen. They are no different than any of the other government controlled polls. Still losing your edge aye Mr Innomen. I thought that you were a stand out guy. I guess I was wrong.
Numeros
Posts: 2
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
10/23/2012 12:46:44 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/23/2012 10:19:59 AM, innomen wrote:
"The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.

The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on pollster.com.

On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama"s strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points " 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama"s final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two " Rasmussen and Pew " were spot on."

That Fordham analysis is anything but new. It's old, outdated, and quite incorrect. It was compiled in the hours immediately following the 2008 election, long before all the ballots had been officially tallied. Notice that it stated Obama had a "current 6.15-point popular vote lead." Well, as it turned out, Obama actually won by 7.3 percent, 52.9 to 46.5. CNN & Ipsos came the closest, not Rasmussen & Pew.

Fordham later released a final analysis based on the official election outcome. It shows that eight pollsters were more accurate than Rasmussen & Pew.

http://www.fordham.edu...