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Electoral college layout

Ore_Ele
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10/30/2012 9:27:27 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

While everyone can say that polls are meaningless, they are not. While they are imperfect, they are one of the best indicators. Looking over the states, with no toss ups, Romney is looking at a 257 - 281 loss. And that is with Colorado and Virginia (polls showing a dead heat) being placed to Romney.

As it comes down, he need 14 more points, and that comes from Ohio (of course, if he loses either CO or VA, then Ohio will not be enough), but Ohio is currently leaning towards Obama by 2.1 points. That is certainly not much, however, it is more than how Florida is lean Romney (1.3 points).

As it comes down, there are several states to watch...
FL - must hold for Romney. There is almost no foreseeable way for him to win the white house without it.
OH - must win for Romney. This is where he needs to focus, since he is currently behind.
VA - must win for Romney. If he loses this, than Ohio will not be enough.
CO - must win for Romney. " "

Should he miss either VA or CO (not both), he can make them up with NH and IA (he'll need both if he drops VA, only NH if he drops CO).
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
FREEDO
Posts: 21,057
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10/30/2012 11:17:26 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
My declaration stands that if Romney wins, I will get his face tattooed on my ass. That's how confident I am.
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darkkermit
Posts: 11,204
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10/30/2012 11:25:53 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/30/2012 11:17:26 PM, FREEDO wrote:
My declaration stands that if Romney wins, I will get his face tattooed on my ass. That's how confident I am.

you know, you could just go to intrade, buy a bunch of stocks, and make profits.

But I assume you'll get your face tattooed on your @ss whether romney wins or not :p.
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Koopin
Posts: 12,090
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10/30/2012 11:26:23 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/30/2012 11:17:26 PM, FREEDO wrote:
My declaration stands that if Romney wins, I will get his face tattooed on my ass. That's how confident I am.

I am gonna hold you to this.
kfc
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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10/30/2012 11:39:55 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/30/2012 11:17:26 PM, FREEDO wrote:
My declaration stands that if Romney wins, I will get his face tattooed on my ass. That's how confident I am.

If it happens, I demanding pictures.

Too bad I can't change my vote now.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Double_R
Posts: 4,886
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10/31/2012 2:42:51 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/30/2012 9:27:27 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

While everyone can say that polls are meaningless, they are not. While they are imperfect, they are one of the best indicators. Looking over the states, with no toss ups, Romney is looking at a 257 - 281 loss. And that is with Colorado and Virginia (polls showing a dead heat) being placed to Romney.

As it comes down, he need 14 more points, and that comes from Ohio (of course, if he loses either CO or VA, then Ohio will not be enough), but Ohio is currently leaning towards Obama by 2.1 points. That is certainly not much, however, it is more than how Florida is lean Romney (1.3 points).

As it comes down, there are several states to watch...
FL - must hold for Romney. There is almost no foreseeable way for him to win the white house without it.
OH - must win for Romney. This is where he needs to focus, since he is currently behind.
VA - must win for Romney. If he loses this, than Ohio will not be enough.
CO - must win for Romney. " "

Should he miss either VA or CO (not both), he can make them up with NH and IA (he'll need both if he drops VA, only NH if he drops CO).

I think you are definitely right about Florida, if it goes to Obama we might as well change the channel cause it's over. I predict that Obama will win Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Iowa, finishing with 281 points.
lewis20
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11/1/2012 11:03:22 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/30/2012 11:42:05 PM, darkkermit wrote:
Fvck, its too late to get into the action of intrade. I was bout to put a $1000 on Barack Obama.

You'd have made 370 if Obama wins right?
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Koopin
Posts: 12,090
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11/2/2012 11:32:31 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/1/2012 11:03:22 AM, lewis20 wrote:
At 10/30/2012 11:42:05 PM, darkkermit wrote:
Fvck, its too late to get into the action of intrade. I was bout to put a $1000 on Barack Obama.

You'd have made 370 if Obama wins right?

Id be willing to do a $10 bet. Not $1000.

Anyone on DDO wanna take my offer?
kfc
JaxsonRaine
Posts: 3,606
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11/2/2012 1:47:59 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
I'm actually thinking 285:253 in favor of Romney.

Beyond that, I'm really actually thinking 310-320 EC votes for Romney. There are several important factors that the polls don't take into consideration.
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Contra
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11/2/2012 2:39:32 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/2/2012 1:47:59 PM, JaxsonRaine wrote:
I'm actually thinking 285:253 in favor of Romney.

Beyond that, I'm really actually thinking 310-320 EC votes for Romney. There are several important factors that the polls don't take into consideration.

I think that Ohio will be Romney's hardest spot. Hopefully I'm wrong.
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DanT
Posts: 5,693
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11/2/2012 3:33:33 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/30/2012 9:27:27 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

While everyone can say that polls are meaningless, they are not. While they are imperfect, they are one of the best indicators. Looking over the states, with no toss ups, Romney is looking at a 257 - 281 loss. And that is with Colorado and Virginia (polls showing a dead heat) being placed to Romney.

As it comes down, he need 14 more points, and that comes from Ohio (of course, if he loses either CO or VA, then Ohio will not be enough), but Ohio is currently leaning towards Obama by 2.1 points. That is certainly not much, however, it is more than how Florida is lean Romney (1.3 points).

As it comes down, there are several states to watch...
FL - must hold for Romney. There is almost no foreseeable way for him to win the white house without it.
OH - must win for Romney. This is where he needs to focus, since he is currently behind.
VA - must win for Romney. If he loses this, than Ohio will not be enough.
CO - must win for Romney. " "

Should he miss either VA or CO (not both), he can make them up with NH and IA (he'll need both if he drops VA, only NH if he drops CO).

That map is highly questionable. I live in NH, I can tell you with absolute certainty that Romney has far more support in this state.
"Chemical weapons are no different than any other types of weapons."~Lordknukle
blameworthy
Posts: 431
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11/2/2012 3:35:03 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/2/2012 3:33:33 PM, DanT wrote:
At 10/30/2012 9:27:27 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

While everyone can say that polls are meaningless, they are not. While they are imperfect, they are one of the best indicators. Looking over the states, with no toss ups, Romney is looking at a 257 - 281 loss. And that is with Colorado and Virginia (polls showing a dead heat) being placed to Romney.

As it comes down, he need 14 more points, and that comes from Ohio (of course, if he loses either CO or VA, then Ohio will not be enough), but Ohio is currently leaning towards Obama by 2.1 points. That is certainly not much, however, it is more than how Florida is lean Romney (1.3 points).

As it comes down, there are several states to watch...
FL - must hold for Romney. There is almost no foreseeable way for him to win the white house without it.
OH - must win for Romney. This is where he needs to focus, since he is currently behind.
VA - must win for Romney. If he loses this, than Ohio will not be enough.
CO - must win for Romney. " "

Should he miss either VA or CO (not both), he can make them up with NH and IA (he'll need both if he drops VA, only NH if he drops CO).

That map is highly questionable. I live in NH, I can tell you with absolute certainty that Romney has far more support in this state.

The polls indicate otherwise.

http://www.seacoastonline.com...
DanT
Posts: 5,693
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11/2/2012 9:59:52 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/2/2012 3:35:03 PM, blameworthy wrote:
At 11/2/2012 3:33:33 PM, DanT wrote:
At 10/30/2012 9:27:27 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

While everyone can say that polls are meaningless, they are not. While they are imperfect, they are one of the best indicators. Looking over the states, with no toss ups, Romney is looking at a 257 - 281 loss. And that is with Colorado and Virginia (polls showing a dead heat) being placed to Romney.

As it comes down, he need 14 more points, and that comes from Ohio (of course, if he loses either CO or VA, then Ohio will not be enough), but Ohio is currently leaning towards Obama by 2.1 points. That is certainly not much, however, it is more than how Florida is lean Romney (1.3 points).

As it comes down, there are several states to watch...
FL - must hold for Romney. There is almost no foreseeable way for him to win the white house without it.
OH - must win for Romney. This is where he needs to focus, since he is currently behind.
VA - must win for Romney. If he loses this, than Ohio will not be enough.
CO - must win for Romney. " "

Should he miss either VA or CO (not both), he can make them up with NH and IA (he'll need both if he drops VA, only NH if he drops CO).

That map is highly questionable. I live in NH, I can tell you with absolute certainty that Romney has far more support in this state.

The polls indicate otherwise.

http://www.seacoastonline.com...

New England College Poll? Since when are no named polling groups credible sources? The New England college does not say where they polled, only that they polled 571 people. It does not give any info on who, or where they polled, and it does not give any info on the standard error, or the type of poll conducted.

The last presidential election had a turnout of 701,360 people, so if the sample size is 571, than the margin of error is 4.1. That margin of error is high enough for Romney to have the actual lead. furthermore, if they only polled 1 electoral district than it's not reflective of the other districts.
"Chemical weapons are no different than any other types of weapons."~Lordknukle
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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11/4/2012 8:35:12 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/2/2012 9:59:52 PM, DanT wrote:
At 11/2/2012 3:35:03 PM, blameworthy wrote:
At 11/2/2012 3:33:33 PM, DanT wrote:
At 10/30/2012 9:27:27 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

While everyone can say that polls are meaningless, they are not. While they are imperfect, they are one of the best indicators. Looking over the states, with no toss ups, Romney is looking at a 257 - 281 loss. And that is with Colorado and Virginia (polls showing a dead heat) being placed to Romney.

As it comes down, he need 14 more points, and that comes from Ohio (of course, if he loses either CO or VA, then Ohio will not be enough), but Ohio is currently leaning towards Obama by 2.1 points. That is certainly not much, however, it is more than how Florida is lean Romney (1.3 points).

As it comes down, there are several states to watch...
FL - must hold for Romney. There is almost no foreseeable way for him to win the white house without it.
OH - must win for Romney. This is where he needs to focus, since he is currently behind.
VA - must win for Romney. If he loses this, than Ohio will not be enough.
CO - must win for Romney. " "

Should he miss either VA or CO (not both), he can make them up with NH and IA (he'll need both if he drops VA, only NH if he drops CO).

That map is highly questionable. I live in NH, I can tell you with absolute certainty that Romney has far more support in this state.

The polls indicate otherwise.

http://www.seacoastonline.com...

New England College Poll? Since when are no named polling groups credible sources? The New England college does not say where they polled, only that they polled 571 people. It does not give any info on who, or where they polled, and it does not give any info on the standard error, or the type of poll conducted.

The last presidential election had a turnout of 701,360 people, so if the sample size is 571, than the margin of error is 4.1. That margin of error is high enough for Romney to have the actual lead. furthermore, if they only polled 1 electoral district than it's not reflective of the other districts.

Here's a list of all the polls that RCP used.
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DanT
Posts: 5,693
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11/4/2012 11:23:11 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/4/2012 8:35:12 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 11/2/2012 9:59:52 PM, DanT wrote:
At 11/2/2012 3:35:03 PM, blameworthy wrote:
At 11/2/2012 3:33:33 PM, DanT wrote:
At 10/30/2012 9:27:27 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

While everyone can say that polls are meaningless, they are not. While they are imperfect, they are one of the best indicators. Looking over the states, with no toss ups, Romney is looking at a 257 - 281 loss. And that is with Colorado and Virginia (polls showing a dead heat) being placed to Romney.

As it comes down, he need 14 more points, and that comes from Ohio (of course, if he loses either CO or VA, then Ohio will not be enough), but Ohio is currently leaning towards Obama by 2.1 points. That is certainly not much, however, it is more than how Florida is lean Romney (1.3 points).

As it comes down, there are several states to watch...
FL - must hold for Romney. There is almost no foreseeable way for him to win the white house without it.
OH - must win for Romney. This is where he needs to focus, since he is currently behind.
VA - must win for Romney. If he loses this, than Ohio will not be enough.
CO - must win for Romney. " "

Should he miss either VA or CO (not both), he can make them up with NH and IA (he'll need both if he drops VA, only NH if he drops CO).

That map is highly questionable. I live in NH, I can tell you with absolute certainty that Romney has far more support in this state.

The polls indicate otherwise.

http://www.seacoastonline.com...

New England College Poll? Since when are no named polling groups credible sources? The New England college does not say where they polled, only that they polled 571 people. It does not give any info on who, or where they polled, and it does not give any info on the standard error, or the type of poll conducted.

The last presidential election had a turnout of 701,360 people, so if the sample size is 571, than the margin of error is 4.1. That margin of error is high enough for Romney to have the actual lead. furthermore, if they only polled 1 electoral district than it's not reflective of the other districts.

Here's a list of all the polls that RCP used.

Where is "here"???????
"Chemical weapons are no different than any other types of weapons."~Lordknukle
darkkermit
Posts: 11,204
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11/4/2012 11:59:15 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/1/2012 11:03:22 AM, lewis20 wrote:
At 10/30/2012 11:42:05 PM, darkkermit wrote:
Fvck, its too late to get into the action of intrade. I was bout to put a $1000 on Barack Obama.

You'd have made 370 if Obama wins right?

$541 at the current stock price.
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RoyLatham
Posts: 4,488
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11/6/2012 12:25:29 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
The polls are assuming that Democrats will turn out 4-6 points more than Republicans, as in 2008 or close to it. That may be the case, but it's not obvious. One Gallup pol says the Republican turnout will be +1 over the Democrats this time.

Polls predicted that Scott in Wisconsin would be recalled, but he won by +7. It doesn't mean that will repeat. It means the polls are hard to read.

No question if Florida goes to Obama, Romney is toast. Similarly if Pennslyvania goes to Romney, Obama is done.
imabench
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11/7/2012 12:21:52 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 10/30/2012 9:27:27 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

While everyone can say that polls are meaningless, they are not. While they are imperfect, they are one of the best indicators. Looking over the states, with no toss ups, Romney is looking at a 257 - 281 loss. And that is with Colorado and Virginia (polls showing a dead heat) being placed to Romney.

As it comes down, he need 14 more points, and that comes from Ohio (of course, if he loses either CO or VA, then Ohio will not be enough), but Ohio is currently leaning towards Obama by 2.1 points. That is certainly not much, however, it is more than how Florida is lean Romney (1.3 points).

As it comes down, there are several states to watch...
FL - must hold for Romney. There is almost no foreseeable way for him to win the white house without it.
OH - must win for Romney. This is where he needs to focus, since he is currently behind.
VA - must win for Romney. If he loses this, than Ohio will not be enough.
CO - must win for Romney. " "

The funny part is he may have lost all four of those states depending on where Florida finally falls.

Should he miss either VA or CO (not both), he can make them up with NH and IA (he'll need both if he drops VA, only NH if he drops CO).
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PervRat
Posts: 963
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11/8/2012 4:32:43 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/2/2012 3:33:33 PM, DanT wrote:
That map is highly questionable. I live in NH, I can tell you with absolute certainty that Romney has far more support in this state.

You fail. http://www.cnn.com...

You gave absolute certainty, so you have absolute zero credibility.
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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11/8/2012 8:09:28 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/8/2012 4:32:43 AM, PervRat wrote:
At 11/2/2012 3:33:33 PM, DanT wrote:
That map is highly questionable. I live in NH, I can tell you with absolute certainty that Romney has far more support in this state.

You fail. http://www.cnn.com...

You gave absolute certainty, so you have absolute zero credibility.

RCP had Obama by +2.0, and he ended with +5.8.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"