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Who do you think will win the election?

keepinitreal
Posts: 58
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11/4/2012 6:01:44 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
What are your predictions? What swing states will the candidates win and how many electoral votes do you think they will get?

I predict the President winning Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Nevada getting him 275 electoral college votes. Governor Romney will win Colorado, Florida, Iowa, and Virginia getting him 263.

I do predict a higher turn out of evangelicals who didn't vote in 2008 to vote in this upcoming election, for Romney. However, I don't think Romney will get both Ohio and Iowa. It is true that they can win this without getting Ohio; there are other alternate routes but getting Ohio is the easiest for both camps because of its 18 votes.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...
imabench
Posts: 21,206
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11/4/2012 7:06:54 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/4/2012 6:01:44 PM, keepinitreal wrote:
What are your predictions? What swing states will the candidates win and how many electoral votes do you think they will get?

I predict the President winning Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Nevada getting him 275 electoral college votes. Governor Romney will win Colorado, Florida, Iowa, and Virginia getting him 263.

I think the exact same thing except im giving Iowa to Obama as well
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

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000ike
Posts: 11,196
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11/4/2012 7:25:23 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Obama will get his firewall in the northern midwest, but I think he will win at least ONE from NC, VA, FL, or CO...because those are all dead heats, and it's none leans Romney anymore (NBC has Obama up by +2 in FL and VA, tied in NC and CO). So I just don't see him losing all of them.
"A stupid despot may constrain his slaves with iron chains; but a true politician binds them even more strongly with the chain of their own ideas" - Michel Foucault
GeoLaureate8
Posts: 12,252
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11/4/2012 10:35:39 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
If you were to say who truly won minus the cheating, mind control, and voter fraud, Gary Johnson will win via the honest vote. But the media will declare Obamney the winner.
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
FREEDO
Posts: 21,057
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11/4/2012 10:37:17 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/4/2012 7:22:29 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
too close to call

Lol. Your wishful thinking is adorable.
GRAND POOBAH OF DDO

fnord
FREEDO
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11/4/2012 10:39:25 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/4/2012 10:35:39 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
If you were to say who truly won minus the cheating, mind control, and voter fraud, Gary Johnson will win via the honest vote. But the media will declare Obamney the winner.

So let me get this straight.

You believe that there is a voter fraud scheme so massive that it takes the actual winner of the election, Gary Johnson, and leaves him without even one electoral point?
GRAND POOBAH OF DDO

fnord
Double_R
Posts: 4,886
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11/4/2012 10:54:08 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/4/2012 10:35:39 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
If you were to say who truly won minus the cheating, mind control, and voter fraud, Gary Johnson will win via the honest vote. But the media will declare Obamney the winner.

You do realize that most people have never heard of Gary Johnson right?
tyler90az
Posts: 971
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11/4/2012 11:22:16 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/4/2012 10:54:08 PM, Double_R wrote:
At 11/4/2012 10:35:39 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
If you were to say who truly won minus the cheating, mind control, and voter fraud, Gary Johnson will win via the honest vote. But the media will declare Obamney the winner.

You do realize that most people have never heard of Gary Johnson right?

Look for many Gary Johnson votes coming out of Colorado. That serves to only hurt President Obama, for the most parts votes will be taken from him.

With that said, President Obama will win this election taking Ohio and Florida.
Today we begin in earnest the work of making sure that the world we leave our children is just a little bit better than the one we inhabit today. - President Obama
GeoLaureate8
Posts: 12,252
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11/4/2012 11:33:04 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/4/2012 10:39:25 PM, FREEDO wrote:
At 11/4/2012 10:35:39 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
If you were to say who truly won minus the cheating, mind control, and voter fraud, Gary Johnson will win via the honest vote. But the media will declare Obamney the winner.

So let me get this straight.

You believe that there is a voter fraud scheme so massive that it takes the actual winner of the election, Gary Johnson, and leaves him without even one electoral point?

The voter fraud is minor. About 10% of the votes will probably be from dead people, voting machine fraud, double-voting, illegal immigrant voting, etc.

The other 85% of the votes will be votes controlled by mind control. 85% of the voters were manipulated and conditioned since birth to vote for the two-party dictatorship.

The remaining 5% of the vote will be from the voters who honestly voted and weren't mind-controlled since birth to vote Republicrat. Of the 5% honest vote, Gary Johnson will win. Therefore, Gary Johnson wins the honest vote.

95% of the votes are invalid.
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
FREEDO
Posts: 21,057
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11/4/2012 11:40:22 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/4/2012 11:33:04 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
At 11/4/2012 10:39:25 PM, FREEDO wrote:
At 11/4/2012 10:35:39 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
If you were to say who truly won minus the cheating, mind control, and voter fraud, Gary Johnson will win via the honest vote. But the media will declare Obamney the winner.

So let me get this straight.

You believe that there is a voter fraud scheme so massive that it takes the actual winner of the election, Gary Johnson, and leaves him without even one electoral point?

The voter fraud is minor. About 10% of the votes will probably be from dead people, voting machine fraud, double-voting, illegal immigrant voting, etc.

Do you realize that the recorded amount of voter fraud per presidential election only ranks in the dozens?

The other 85% of the votes will be votes controlled by mind control. 85% of the voters were manipulated and conditioned since birth to vote for the two-party dictatorship.

The remaining 5% of the vote will be from the voters who honestly voted and weren't mind-controlled since birth to vote Republicrat. Of the 5% honest vote, Gary Johnson will win. Therefore, Gary Johnson wins the honest vote.

95% of the votes are invalid.

Oh, I see. The choices of anyone you deem as being under mind-control aren't legitimate. Only your people are fully human.
GRAND POOBAH OF DDO

fnord
GeoLaureate8
Posts: 12,252
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11/4/2012 11:59:56 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/4/2012 11:40:22 PM, FREEDO wrote:
Oh, I see. The choices of anyone you deem as being under mind-control aren't legitimate.

Most people don't vote with their conscience. They vote for the "lesser of two evils," most of the time admittedly. Other times they are single-issue voters who will 100% support a candidate because of one policy. For example, many people will vote for the guy who will bomb thousands of children to death, strip their freedoms away, destroy the Internet, so long as he legalizes gay marriage.

Only your people are fully human.

Not my claim. People who support freedom come from many walks of life. Freedom is universal. We're not the tribalistic ones who will go to the booth and go down the line voting all Democrat/Republican without even knowing a shred about the candidate.

As Gary Johnson said, most people are fiscally responsible and socially tolerant. The problem is the fascist policies are concealed to the voting base.

Honestly though, the people who have Facebook and Twitter should have no excuse for being ignorant of the issues. The Internet is a near infinite database of information and they don't know that their candidate supports fascism and death? I find that suspect.

Even worse are the politically active ones who are very fervent in their favor of gay marriage or pro-life. How can you be surrounded by all this political knowledge and not know the very basic issues concerning civil liberties.
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
imabench
Posts: 21,206
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11/5/2012 12:24:37 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/4/2012 11:33:04 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
At 11/4/2012 10:39:25 PM, FREEDO wrote:
At 11/4/2012 10:35:39 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
If you were to say who truly won minus the cheating, mind control, and voter fraud, Gary Johnson will win via the honest vote. But the media will declare Obamney the winner.

So let me get this straight.

You believe that there is a voter fraud scheme so massive that it takes the actual winner of the election, Gary Johnson, and leaves him without even one electoral point?

The voter fraud is minor. About 10% of the votes will probably be from dead people, voting machine fraud, double-voting, illegal immigrant voting, etc.

The other 85% of the votes will be votes controlled by mind control. 85% of the voters were manipulated and conditioned since birth to vote for the two-party dictatorship.

Guys dont bother submitting this one, I already got it

The remaining 5% of the vote will be from the voters who honestly voted and weren't mind-controlled since birth to vote Republicrat. Of the 5% honest vote, Gary Johnson will win. Therefore, Gary Johnson wins the honest vote.

95% of the votes are invalid.
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
FREEDO
Posts: 21,057
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11/5/2012 2:22:06 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/5/2012 12:24:37 AM, imabench wrote:
Guys dont bother submitting this one, I already got it

He's trying too hard.
GRAND POOBAH OF DDO

fnord
bossyburrito
Posts: 14,075
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11/5/2012 3:43:11 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
@Geo
It's not mind control, it's just rampant apathy and ignorance.
#UnbanTheMadman

"Some will sell their dreams for small desires
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GeoLaureate8
Posts: 12,252
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11/5/2012 10:15:16 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
Words are used to manipulate the mind. Why do you think candidates have debate coaches? They are masters of words and language. Look at the mindless cheering when candidates say some genetic pre-written line.

Conditioning is not a wild theory either, conditioning is well understood to happen to humans since birth.

How is any of this controversial?
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
blameworthy
Posts: 431
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11/5/2012 10:28:41 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
Geo, if you believe that the two-party system is a dictatorship, why are you supporting Mitt Romney willingly? Are you consenting to the dictatorship's existence?
RoyLatham
Posts: 4,488
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11/5/2012 10:39:50 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
I think Romney will win. The polls this morning show 48.3 Romney and 48.1 for Obama. the undecideds usually break about 3:1 for the challenger (some say 2:1 and others say 4:1). So that make the likely popular vote for Romney, 51/49. Ohio rarely departs from the national popular vote.

There is a big unknown in voter turnout. Polls weight the raw voter sample by how many Republicans and Democrats the pollster thinks will vote. Way more Democrats turned out than Republicans in 2008, and most of the pollsters are still using a very high Democrat turnout model. Yet Gallup shows Republicans far more energized than Democrats this time around. For that reason, I think it will be more Romney than the straight 51/49 predicted by the straight numbers.

The problem is that what usually happens doesn't always happen. Contrary to the history of undecideds, Bush received most of the undecided vote in 2004. We'll know soon.
16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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11/5/2012 10:44:56 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/5/2012 10:39:50 AM, RoyLatham wrote:
I think Romney will win. The polls this morning show 48.3 Romney and 48.1 for Obama. the undecideds usually break about 3:1 for the challenger (some say 2:1 and others say 4:1). So that make the likely popular vote for Romney, 51/49. Ohio rarely departs from the national popular vote.

There is a big unknown in voter turnout. Polls weight the raw voter sample by how many Republicans and Democrats the pollster thinks will vote. Way more Democrats turned out than Republicans in 2008, and most of the pollsters are still using a very high Democrat turnout model. Yet Gallup shows Republicans far more energized than Democrats this time around. For that reason, I think it will be more Romney than the straight 51/49 predicted by the straight numbers.

The problem is that what usually happens doesn't always happen. Contrary to the history of undecideds, Bush received most of the undecided vote in 2004. We'll know soon.

http://ElectoralMap.net...
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
RoyLatham
Posts: 4,488
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11/5/2012 10:46:43 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/4/2012 10:35:39 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
If you were to say who truly won minus the cheating, mind control, and voter fraud, Gary Johnson will win via the honest vote. But the media will declare Obamney the winner.

You have a universal argument that works for any absurd position:

1. People believe the earth is round, but it is really flat.
2. People are continually told the earth is round.
3. It's perfectly reasonable to suppose that people will believe what they are continually told, even if it isn't true.
4. Therefore the earth is flat.

There are at least two errors in this argument. You must prove logically that the world is indeed flat. You must overcome the free exchange of ideas that occurs in a society with free speech. No one has stopped you from saying whatever you want, but it doesn't resonate. You are losing fair and square.
GeoLaureate8
Posts: 12,252
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11/5/2012 11:11:17 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/5/2012 10:46:43 AM, RoyLatham wrote:
You have a universal argument that works for any absurd position:

1. People believe the earth is round, but it is really flat.
2. People are continually told the earth is round.
3. It's perfectly reasonable to suppose that people will believe what they are continually told, even if it isn't true.
4. Therefore the earth is flat.

Strawman. That is not my line of reasoning. You made that up.

There are at least two errors in this argument. You must prove logically that the world is indeed flat. You must overcome the free exchange of ideas that occurs in a society with free speech. No one has stopped you from saying whatever you want, but it doesn't resonate. You are losing fair and square.

Infowars gets millions of site hits, millions of radio listeners on XM and over 100 am/fm stations in America. Alex Jones is surpassing everyone. David Icke just filled up the Wembley Arena in London last week. David Icke appears on the History Channel and Discovery Channel. Alex Jones and Jesse Ventura appear on TruTV. Alex Jones gets bombarded with requests to go on Fox and CNN and he refuses the majority of the time (for obvious reasons). Ron Paul has one the largest and most revolutionary movements in the world.
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
medic0506
Posts: 13,450
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11/5/2012 11:21:17 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/5/2012 10:39:50 AM, RoyLatham wrote:
I think Romney will win. The polls this morning show 48.3 Romney and 48.1 for Obama. the undecideds usually break about 3:1 for the challenger (some say 2:1 and others say 4:1). So that make the likely popular vote for Romney, 51/49. Ohio rarely departs from the national popular vote.

There is a big unknown in voter turnout. Polls weight the raw voter sample by how many Republicans and Democrats the pollster thinks will vote. Way more Democrats turned out than Republicans in 2008, and most of the pollsters are still using a very high Democrat turnout model. Yet Gallup shows Republicans far more energized than Democrats this time around. For that reason, I think it will be more Romney than the straight 51/49 predicted by the straight numbers.

The problem is that what usually happens doesn't always happen. Contrary to the history of undecideds, Bush received most of the undecided vote in 2004. We'll know soon.

I hope you're right. I'm pretty sure the republican/conservative/evangelical turnout will be one of the highest ever because they want Obama out of office, way more than they care about which Republican goes in. Romney has a better shot at the moderate vote than a typical Republican/Conservative candidate, so I think it'll all come down to Obama's base turnout. Are they fired up enough, given his record over the last 4 years, to turn out in numbers similar to what he got in '08?? I don't think his base is as energized as it was '08, when electing the first black president was a possibility, so I think Romney has a better shot than what the polls currently reflect.
16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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11/5/2012 11:22:25 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/5/2012 11:11:17 AM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
At 11/5/2012 10:46:43 AM, RoyLatham wrote:
You have a universal argument that works for any absurd position:

1. People believe the earth is round, but it is really flat.
2. People are continually told the earth is round.
3. It's perfectly reasonable to suppose that people will believe what they are continually told, even if it isn't true.
4. Therefore the earth is flat.

Strawman. That is not my line of reasoning. You made that up.

There are at least two errors in this argument. You must prove logically that the world is indeed flat. You must overcome the free exchange of ideas that occurs in a society with free speech. No one has stopped you from saying whatever you want, but it doesn't resonate. You are losing fair and square.

Infowars gets millions of site hits, millions of radio listeners on XM and over 100 am/fm stations in America. Alex Jones is surpassing everyone. David Icke just filled up the Wembley Arena in London last week. David Icke appears on the History Channel and Discovery Channel. Alex Jones and Jesse Ventura appear on TruTV. Alex Jones gets bombarded with requests to go on Fox and CNN and he refuses the majority of the time (for obvious reasons). Ron Paul has one the largest and most revolutionary movements in the world.

Now you're using the bandwagon fallacy
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
GeoLaureate8
Posts: 12,252
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11/5/2012 11:31:06 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/5/2012 11:22:25 AM, 16kadams wrote:
Now you're using the bandwagon fallacy

Youre retarded. You don't understand formal logic. Did I say "we have large numbers, therefore were right"? No. So stfu. Roy said that were losing because we have small numbers. I countered saying that no, we have large numbers and rapid growth rate. That is not a bandwagon fallacy when the question at hand is about numbers.
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
Zaradi
Posts: 14,124
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11/5/2012 11:45:48 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/5/2012 11:31:06 AM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
At 11/5/2012 11:22:25 AM, 16kadams wrote:
Now you're using the bandwagon fallacy

Youre retarded. You don't understand formal logic. Did I say "we have large numbers, therefore were right"? No. So stfu. Roy said that were losing because we have small numbers. I countered saying that no, we have large numbers and rapid growth rate. That is not a bandwagon fallacy when the question at hand is about numbers.

So as long as you're countering someone else's argument, you don't have to worry about just saying "more people are listening so we're right" and commuting the bandwagon fallacy?

Seems legit.
Want to debate? Pick a topic and hit me up! - http://www.debate.org...
16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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11/5/2012 11:46:44 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/5/2012 11:31:06 AM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
At 11/5/2012 11:22:25 AM, 16kadams wrote:
Now you're using the bandwagon fallacy

Youre retarded.

You forgot the apostrophe
http://en.wikipedia.org...

You don't understand formal logic. Did I say "we have large numbers, therefore were right"?

No. So stfu.

I really don't see how this gives you an intellectual high ground you semi-implied at the top.

Roy said that were losing because we have small numbers.

He did, yes. But he is saying currently you are a minority.

Also, the only source I could find agreeing with you was info wars.....

I countered saying that no, we have large numbers and rapid growth rate. That is not a bandwagon fallacy when the question at hand is about numbers.

Lol. You said most people like Romney or Obama, they are brain washed. You said the minority wins. Then you say look, we're growing, we're winning. Sounds like it to me.
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
16kadams
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11/5/2012 11:47:40 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/5/2012 11:45:48 AM, Zaradi wrote:
At 11/5/2012 11:31:06 AM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
At 11/5/2012 11:22:25 AM, 16kadams wrote:
Now you're using the bandwagon fallacy

Youre retarded. You don't understand formal logic. Did I say "we have large numbers, therefore were right"? No. So stfu. Roy said that were losing because we have small numbers. I countered saying that no, we have large numbers and rapid growth rate. That is not a bandwagon fallacy when the question at hand is about numbers.

So as long as you're countering someone else's argument, you don't have to worry about just saying "more people are listening so we're right" and commuting the bandwagon fallacy?

Seems legit.

^
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
GeoLaureate8
Posts: 12,252
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11/5/2012 11:53:57 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
I never once said or implied that numbers or growing numbers = right.

Obamney has the most support and biggest bandwagon, so how could I be committing the bandwagon fallacy.

And gtfo with that apostrophe bs. I'm using swype txt on my phone. At least I used the proper spelling of "youre." Eff the apostrophe.
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
Zaradi
Posts: 14,124
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11/5/2012 12:00:40 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/5/2012 11:53:57 AM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
I never once said or implied that numbers or growing numbers = right.

Obamney has the most support and biggest bandwagon, so how could I be committing the bandwagon fallacy.


So so long as you're not the biggest violator of the bandwagon fallacy, then you're in the clear?

My aren't we being super logical today.

And gtfo with that apostrophe bs. I'm using swype txt on my phone. At least I used the proper spelling of "youre." Eff the apostrophe.
Want to debate? Pick a topic and hit me up! - http://www.debate.org...
16kadams
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11/5/2012 12:03:25 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/5/2012 12:00:40 PM, Zaradi wrote:
At 11/5/2012 11:53:57 AM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
I never once said or implied that numbers or growing numbers = right.

Obamney has the most support and biggest bandwagon, so how could I be committing the bandwagon fallacy.


So so long as you're not the biggest violator of the bandwagon fallacy, then you're in the clear?

My aren't we being super logical today.

Lol


And gtfo with that apostrophe bs. I'm using swype txt on my phone. At least I used the proper spelling of "youre." Eff the apostrophe.

I was just giving you a hard time, chill out.
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross