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The Imminent Collapse of Pakistan

Volkov
Posts: 9,765
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10/10/2009 8:44:40 AM
Posted: 7 years ago
http://news.bbc.co.uk...

Taliban-linked militants rode into the military garrison city of Rawalpindi and attacked the Pakistani military's headquarters, and have now taken security personnel as hostages.

This is just one symptom of Pakistan's demise as a semi-stable, semi-governable nation. The military, which holds the most sway in the country (because Lord knows the elected government has no power), has now come under direct attack at its heart, in a city that is arguably one of the most well guarded on the Indian subcontinent. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that a Pakistani military officer made sure the militants were able to get in to attack - infighting and ideological sympathy with the Taliban pervades the military in Pakistan.

Other symptoms include the loss of government control over almost all of its western frontier, including a major city (Quetta) and has barely held on to Peshawar.

The only thing really saving Pakistan is that the majority ethnicity in the country, Punjabs, don't like the Taliban that much. The cities also offer a big bastion of support against the militants, and there was and still sort of is a strong secular streak in the country, among military and civilians alike.

But that is starting to change. The military, even the ISI - Pakistan's intelligence service - has been infiltrated by religious zealots, and is slowly turning their sights towards other members of the military that aren't so keen on the Taliban, which is why I said that I would not be surprised if someone within the military orchestrated or helped this plot in Rawalpindi. With the military crumbling, the rest of the population will degenerate into small groups vying for power or defense. The central government will most likely collapse upon itself, and the major cities could be overrun with armed men - and despite what some gun-toting members of this site continuously say, most aren't going to take up arms and risk their lives.

Pakistan is slowly and continuously crumbling into a Somali-like state, in my opinion. It can be turned around, and despite my ramblings against the Pakistani military, they're pushing back a little, which is good. But, until they step it up more, or at least start talking to these people, they're done for.

And that is my rant for today. Questions? Comments?
wjmelements
Posts: 8,206
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10/10/2009 8:58:03 AM
Posted: 7 years ago
Very interesting. I had no idea this was going on. (Post this on DDOFans).

In my opinion, the United States should avoid interfering in this one. It would put us in an expensive decade-long war. Military might will not change the minds of religiously motivated militants.
in the blink of an eye you finally see the light
Volkov
Posts: 9,765
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10/10/2009 9:24:40 AM
Posted: 7 years ago
At 10/10/2009 8:58:03 AM, wjmelements wrote:
Very interesting. I had no idea this was going on. (Post this on DDOFans).

Will do, thanks for the suggestion. Do you mean just as an opinion, though?

In my opinion, the United States should avoid interfering in this one. It would put us in an expensive decade-long war. Military might will not change the minds of religiously motivated militants.

I would almost agree here, except that it is a little too far gone for the US and Western powers to ignore now. The destabilization of Pakistan means that our soldiers in Afghanistan is under threat, and that India will be mighty afraid of what is going on - remember, they have a large Muslim population that, while mostly peaceful, can become restless. Our interests, India's interests, and the fact that Pakistan is nuclear-armed is too big for the US to ignore.
JBlake
Posts: 4,634
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10/10/2009 10:39:57 AM
Posted: 7 years ago
At 10/10/2009 8:58:03 AM, wjmelements wrote:
Very interesting. I had no idea this was going on. (Post this on DDOFans).

In my opinion, the United States should avoid interfering in this one. It would put us in an expensive decade-long war. Military might will not change the minds of religiously motivated militants.

Why should we not interfere if they ask for our assistance. Also, you forget that Pakistan already has WMDs. As such, do we really want Pakistan to be in the hands of the Taliban? I'm sure that India does not...
Xer
Posts: 7,776
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10/10/2009 11:32:41 AM
Posted: 7 years ago
At 10/10/2009 10:39:57 AM, JBlake wrote:
Why should we not interfere if they ask for our assistance. Also, you forget that Pakistan already has WMDs. As such, do we really want Pakistan to be in the hands of the Taliban? I'm sure that India does not...

Yeah, then maybe India should go into Pakistan, and not he US.....
BrandonClark
Posts: 500
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10/10/2009 3:25:10 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
On a vonage commercial for vonage world, they said "India, all of India" and the orange spread to Pakistan as it said "All of India".
BLACKHAWKS 6-5 lN OVERTIME!!!
Volkov
Posts: 9,765
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10/10/2009 4:23:46 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
At 10/10/2009 11:32:41 AM, Nags wrote:
Yeah, then maybe India should go into Pakistan, and not he US.....

Except its our problem, not just India's. India has the more immediate issue.
Ragnar_Rahl
Posts: 19,297
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10/10/2009 4:39:03 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
If India does it, it's not just "unrest," you have Pakistan united against India because that lot HATES each other on a scale that merely brings. And both have nukes. Which means nukes probably go off since we're already assuming collapse of Pakistan to those who sympathize with religious extremists (whether that assumption is valid I don't know).

On the other hand, this nuclear war probably has a decent respect for the border-- mutual apocalypse of major population centers. We'd have to withdraw from Afghanistan, but Al Qaeda would be living in hell or flushed out to other places.
It came to be at its height. It was commanded to command. It was a capital before its first stone was laid. It was a monument to the spirit of man.