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Damn you FEDS

Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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11/26/2012 9:50:49 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/26/2012 7:26:48 PM, darkkermit wrote:
The US government has made it so that all US residents must shut down their accounts on intrade. Intrade is being sued.

http://www.foxbusiness.com...

Could it be they are concerned about certain future bets?
For example, a candidate voting against themselves and purposefully lose the election? Is the issue any sort of insider trading, like a new product has a fatal flaw?

On the surface, it does seem odd, though.
My work here is, finally, done.
Greyparrot
Posts: 14,240
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11/26/2012 10:00:29 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/26/2012 7:26:48 PM, darkkermit wrote:
The US government has made it so that all US residents must shut down their accounts on intrade. Intrade is being sued.

http://www.foxbusiness.com...
darkkermit
Posts: 11,204
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11/26/2012 10:02:09 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/26/2012 9:50:49 PM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
At 11/26/2012 7:26:48 PM, darkkermit wrote:
The US government has made it so that all US residents must shut down their accounts on intrade. Intrade is being sued.

http://www.foxbusiness.com...

Could it be they are concerned about certain future bets?
For example, a candidate voting against themselves and purposefully lose the election? Is the issue any sort of insider trading, like a new product has a fatal flaw?

On the surface, it does seem odd, though.

I think if a person was that crazy enough to run for office, purposely lose, just to get some quick cash, could find other ways to make money. Presidential candidates make a lot of money just from books. And if your running the country, you could probably make a lot of money from inside trading or embezzling some of your political donations for personal use.

I think the markets were only for the presidential election. Maybe a few important congressional seats were in the trade market.
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Wallstreetatheist
Posts: 7,132
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11/26/2012 10:02:31 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
On Intrade.com,

"The US Economy will go into Recession during 2013"
292 - 1
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Primal Diet. Lifting. Reading. Psychedelics. Cold-Approach Pickup. Music.
darkkermit
Posts: 11,204
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11/26/2012 10:06:07 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/26/2012 10:02:31 PM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
On Intrade.com,

"The US Economy will go into Recession during 2013"
292 - 1

???. Its currently at 20.1%

Were you planning on betting on a recession would occur in 2013?
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Mr_Anon
Posts: 103
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11/26/2012 10:06:34 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
From the actual complaint (that the OP conveniently did not link to):

David Meister, the Director of the CFTC"s Division of Enforcement, stated: "It is against the law to solicit U.S. persons to buy and sell commodity options, even if they are called "prediction" contracts, unless they are listed for trading and traded on a CFTC-registered exchange or unless legally exempt. The requirement for on-exchange trading is important for a number of reasons, including that it enables the CFTC to police market activity and protect market integrity. Today"s action should make it clear that we will intervene in the "prediction" markets, wherever they may be based, when their U.S. activities violate the Commodity Exchange Act or the CFTC"s regulations."
lewis20
Posts: 5,093
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11/26/2012 10:47:23 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
I bet the fed would be OK with taxing the gains
"If you are a racist I will attack you with the north"- Abraham Lincoln

"Do not wear clothing woven of two kinds of material" - Leviticus 19 19

"War is a racket" - Smedley Butler
Wallstreetatheist
Posts: 7,132
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11/26/2012 10:47:41 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/26/2012 10:06:07 PM, darkkermit wrote:
At 11/26/2012 10:02:31 PM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
On Intrade.com,

"The US Economy will go into Recession during 2013"
292 - 1

???. Its currently at 20.1%

Yeah, tried to type that.

Were you planning on betting on a recession would occur in 2013?

Nope, even if I was, I wouldn't be able to!
DRUG HARM: http://imgur.com...
Primal Diet. Lifting. Reading. Psychedelics. Cold-Approach Pickup. Music.
Mr_Anon
Posts: 103
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11/26/2012 10:48:55 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/26/2012 10:47:23 PM, lewis20 wrote:
I bet the fed would be OK with taxing the gains

Can you be specific? You speak of the "fed" (by which I assume you mean the federal government and not the Federal Reserve) as if it is a single, autonomous person.
slo1
Posts: 4,314
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11/27/2012 9:21:15 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
This reminds me of the time the Bush administration would not allow a high end beef company to perform their own mad cow disease test on 100% of their cows. The test in question while not 100% accurate like all tests, was well enough in range that it would have been extremely unlikely to get a false negative.

The answer the FDA gave as to why they would not allow it was some bs. What it really was about was all the beef producers didn't want the competitive pressure to test 100% of their beef.

I'm sure the rational to deny this "prediction" market their license to operate is some bs. Ironically the University of Iowa runs a "prediction" market although it is centered around politics and not as wide in scope. I wonder if they were granted an operating license.
lewis20
Posts: 5,093
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11/27/2012 9:34:08 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/27/2012 9:21:15 AM, slo1 wrote:
This reminds me of the time the Bush administration would not allow a high end beef company to perform their own mad cow disease test on 100% of their cows. The test in question while not 100% accurate like all tests, was well enough in range that it would have been extremely unlikely to get a false negative.

The answer the FDA gave as to why they would not allow it was some bs. What it really was about was all the beef producers didn't want the competitive pressure to test 100% of their beef.

I'm sure the rational to deny this "prediction" market their license to operate is some bs. Ironically the University of Iowa runs a "prediction" market although it is centered around politics and not as wide in scope. I wonder if they were granted an operating license.

For a while didn't the fda not allow milk companies to advertise no artificial growth hormones because it would hurt the competition who used growth hormones.
"If you are a racist I will attack you with the north"- Abraham Lincoln

"Do not wear clothing woven of two kinds of material" - Leviticus 19 19

"War is a racket" - Smedley Butler
darkkermit
Posts: 11,204
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11/27/2012 10:09:27 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/27/2012 9:34:08 AM, lewis20 wrote:
At 11/27/2012 9:21:15 AM, slo1 wrote:
This reminds me of the time the Bush administration would not allow a high end beef company to perform their own mad cow disease test on 100% of their cows. The test in question while not 100% accurate like all tests, was well enough in range that it would have been extremely unlikely to get a false negative.

The answer the FDA gave as to why they would not allow it was some bs. What it really was about was all the beef producers didn't want the competitive pressure to test 100% of their beef.

I'm sure the rational to deny this "prediction" market their license to operate is some bs. Ironically the University of Iowa runs a "prediction" market although it is centered around politics and not as wide in scope. I wonder if they were granted an operating license.

For a while didn't the fda not allow milk companies to advertise no artificial growth hormones because it would hurt the competition who used growth hormones.

are you serious? :/
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Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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11/27/2012 4:09:58 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/26/2012 10:02:09 PM, darkkermit wrote:
At 11/26/2012 9:50:49 PM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
At 11/26/2012 7:26:48 PM, darkkermit wrote:
The US government has made it so that all US residents must shut down their accounts on intrade. Intrade is being sued.

http://www.foxbusiness.com...

Could it be they are concerned about certain future bets?
For example, a candidate voting against themselves and purposefully lose the election? Is the issue any sort of insider trading, like a new product has a fatal flaw?

On the surface, it does seem odd, though.

I think if a person was that crazy enough to run for office, purposely lose, just to get some quick cash, could find other ways to make money. Presidential candidates make a lot of money just from books.

Fair enough, but there are cases where Republicans run in the Democrat primary, and vice versa.

And if your running the country, you could probably make a lot of money from inside trading or embezzling some of your political donations for personal use.
To my knowledge, everyone has blind trusts which mitigates this possibility. Of course, they can always tell a friend in secret and split the earnings...


I think the markets were only for the presidential election. Maybe a few important congressional seats were in the trade market.

Then maybe it isn't the election stuff, but these future bets can have an effect on actual trading, specifically futures. If everyone is betting the price of corn will go up, then it might actually go up in the futures market. This effect is directly the result of intrade, regardless of how small, therefore intrade should have a license, as intrade's business affects the stock market directly.

This is akin to Wickard v. Filburn, which established that a farmer cannot grow wheat for his own personal consumption as that would affect interstate commerce (price controls of wheat). I don't know if anyone can not grow wheat or if it is only farmers.

I don't know how much I agree with the intrade issue, but I think this is the government's reasoning. I also don't know if intrade knew it needed a license, or if it attempted and was denied. Of course, the entire site needs to be shut down (or the affected parties, in this case Americans) while this is being sorted out.

And lewis20, any profits made from intrade should have been taxed, just like any other gambling winnings would be. Unless, of course, they were never reported, but I think that would be incredibly stupid with paper trails on the internet.
My work here is, finally, done.
darkkermit
Posts: 11,204
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11/27/2012 4:42:46 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/27/2012 4:09:58 PM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
At 11/26/2012 10:02:09 PM, darkkermit wrote:
At 11/26/2012 9:50:49 PM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
At 11/26/2012 7:26:48 PM, darkkermit wrote:
The US government has made it so that all US residents must shut down their accounts on intrade. Intrade is being sued.

http://www.foxbusiness.com...

Could it be they are concerned about certain future bets?
For example, a candidate voting against themselves and purposefully lose the election? Is the issue any sort of insider trading, like a new product has a fatal flaw?

On the surface, it does seem odd, though.

I think if a person was that crazy enough to run for office, purposely lose, just to get some quick cash, could find other ways to make money. Presidential candidates make a lot of money just from books.

Fair enough, but there are cases where Republicans run in the Democrat primary, and vice versa.

And if your running the country, you could probably make a lot of money from inside trading or embezzling some of your political donations for personal use.
To my knowledge, everyone has blind trusts which mitigates this possibility. Of course, they can always tell a friend in secret and split the earnings...


I think the markets were only for the presidential election. Maybe a few important congressional seats were in the trade market.

Then maybe it isn't the election stuff, but these future bets can have an effect on actual trading, specifically futures. If everyone is betting the price of corn will go up, then it might actually go up in the futures market. This effect is directly the result of intrade, regardless of how small, therefore intrade should have a license, as intrade's business affects the stock market directly.

This is akin to Wickard v. Filburn, which established that a farmer cannot grow wheat for his own personal consumption as that would affect interstate commerce (price controls of wheat). I don't know if anyone can not grow wheat or if it is only farmers.

I don't know how much I agree with the intrade issue, but I think this is the government's reasoning. I also don't know if intrade knew it needed a license, or if it attempted and was denied. Of course, the entire site needs to be shut down (or the affected parties, in this case Americans) while this is being sorted out.

And lewis20, any profits made from intrade should have been taxed, just like any other gambling winnings would be. Unless, of course, they were never reported, but I think that would be incredibly stupid with paper trails on the internet.

I suppose the case can be made when they do bets on economics, like if the economy will go into a recession or not, or whether or not a nation will dump the Euro.
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DanT
Posts: 5,693
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11/27/2012 8:45:43 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/26/2012 7:26:48 PM, darkkermit wrote:
The US government has made it so that all US residents must shut down their accounts on intrade. Intrade is being sued.

http://www.foxbusiness.com...

I disagree with the decision, but the WWW is federal jurisdiction, so it's constitutional for the Federal government to regulate internet trade.
"Chemical weapons are no different than any other types of weapons."~Lordknukle