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Gerald Celente: Accurate Trends Forecast

GeoLaureate8
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12/18/2012 12:54:58 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
You guys keep asking for conspiracists to predict at least one thing yet major conspiracist Gerald Celente (frequent Alex Jones guest) has been predicting everything for decades. The mainstream journalist organizations even admit it! What more do you want.

"If Nostradamus were alive today, he'd have a hard time keeping up with Gerald Celente."
-- New York Post

"There"s not a better trend forecaster than Gerald Celente. The man knows what he"s talking about."
-- CNBC

"Those who take their predictions seriously ... consider the Trends Research Institute."
-- The Wall Street Journal

"Gerald Celente is always ahead of the curve on trends and uncannily on the mark ... he's one of the most accurate forecasters around."
-- The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

"Gerald Celente forecast the 1987 stock market crash, "green marketing," and the boom in gourmet coffees."
-- Chicago Tribune

"When CNN wants to know about the"Top Trends, we ask Gerald Celente."
-- CNN Headline News

Trends Research Institute: History Before It Happens
http://www.trendsresearch.com...
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
imabench
Posts: 21,206
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12/18/2012 1:24:00 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 12/18/2012 12:54:58 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
You guys keep asking for conspiracists to predict at least one thing yet major conspiracist Gerald Celente (frequent Alex Jones guest) has been predicting everything for decades. The mainstream journalist organizations even admit it! What more do you want.

"If Nostradamus were alive today, he'd have a hard time keeping up with Gerald Celente."
-- New York Post

"There"s not a better trend forecaster than Gerald Celente. The man knows what he"s talking about."
-- CNBC

"Those who take their predictions seriously ... consider the Trends Research Institute."
-- The Wall Street Journal

"Gerald Celente is always ahead of the curve on trends and uncannily on the mark ... he's one of the most accurate forecasters around."
-- The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

"Gerald Celente forecast the 1987 stock market crash, "green marketing," and the boom in gourmet coffees."
-- Chicago Tribune

"When CNN wants to know about the"Top Trends, we ask Gerald Celente."
-- CNN Headline News


Trends Research Institute: History Before It Happens
http://www.trendsresearch.com...

"I go to Gerald Celente when I wonder what I should do next"
-- God

"Gerald Celente should be president of the world"
-- Obama

"The problem with quotes on the internet is that you can never be sure if theyre authentic"
-- Abraham Lincoln

I can make up quotes and quote them as if they were real too Geo, bring links for each quote or get out and stop being an idiot.
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

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GeoLaureate8
Posts: 12,252
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12/18/2012 1:36:10 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 12/18/2012 1:24:00 PM, imabench wrote:
GeoLaureate8 wrote:
Trends Research Institute: History Before It Happens
http://www.trendsresearch.com...

I can make up quotes and quote them as if they were real too Geo, bring links for each quote or get out and stop being an idiot.

Click the goddamn link you idiot. That's where I got the quotes from, I didn't make them up.
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
GeoLaureate8
Posts: 12,252
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12/18/2012 1:57:30 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
"Gerald Celente Founder of the Trends Research Institute. Predicted the 1987 stock market crash and the demise of the Soviet Union."

http://www.nytimes.com...
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
imabench
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12/18/2012 3:15:18 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 12/18/2012 1:36:10 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
At 12/18/2012 1:24:00 PM, imabench wrote:
GeoLaureate8 wrote:
Trends Research Institute: History Before It Happens
http://www.trendsresearch.com...

I can make up quotes and quote them as if they were real too Geo, bring links for each quote or get out and stop being an idiot.

Click the goddamn link you idiot. That's where I got the quotes from, I didn't make them up.

I did, all id did was make the same bullsh*t claims that you made without offering any actual links to back up their claims.

What is it like being such a massive dumba** Geo?
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
GeoLaureate8
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12/18/2012 3:29:23 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 12/18/2012 3:15:18 PM, imabench wrote:
I did, all id did was make the same bullsh*t claims that you made without offering any actual links to back up their claims.

What is it like being such a massive dumba** Geo?

You don't understand anything. Books quote people on the back cover all the time, but if you search for the quote, you won't find it on the internet. Not everything has a link attacked to it you retard, especially quotes. Quotes are words that come out of peoples mouth and there's not a news article for every word said in existence. Sometimes the quotes come from online articles and I just gave you one. A quote with a link from the New York Times affirming the cited quote from the Chicago turbine.

If these quotes he cited on his site were false, he'd have a potential lawsuit on his hands. And he's not just some nobody they never heard of, hes been on CNN, MSNBC, CBS, Oprah, etc. so they know who he is.

Now facts that you don't understand.
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
Cody_Franklin
Posts: 9,483
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12/18/2012 3:39:26 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
I'm tentatively with Geo on this one. This dude is the real deal, and Geo is right about the praise both from Alex Jones and from mainstream networks. I would like to see a little more about his success rate (given research about the potential superiority of making predictions on coin-flips, for instance), rather than anecdotal confirmation, but it seems like he checks out otherwise.

My one objection is that, from what I read, he seems to be a fan of theatricality, which gives the sense that he's a bit hyperbolic, setting us up as if we live in some unique, fabled moment in history.
darkkermit
Posts: 11,204
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12/18/2012 3:41:32 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 12/18/2012 3:39:26 PM, Cody_Franklin wrote:
I'm tentatively with Geo on this one. This dude is the real deal, and Geo is right about the praise both from Alex Jones and from mainstream networks. I would like to see a little more about his success rate (given research about the potential superiority of making predictions on coin-flips, for instance), rather than anecdotal confirmation, but it seems like he checks out otherwise.

My one objection is that, from what I read, he seems to be a fan of theatricality, which gives the sense that he's a bit hyperbolic, setting us up as if we live in some unique, fabled moment in history.

Most of the trends he states are wrong. Its just when he's right that he gets praise. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Look at this video:

Yea that didn't happen at all.
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imabench
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12/18/2012 3:41:46 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 12/18/2012 3:29:23 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
At 12/18/2012 3:15:18 PM, imabench wrote:
I did, all id did was make the same bullsh*t claims that you made without offering any actual links to back up their claims.

What is it like being such a massive dumba** Geo?

You don't understand anything. Books quote people on the back cover all the time, but if you search for the quote, you won't find it on the internet. Not everything has a link attacked to it you retard, especially quotes. Quotes are words that come out of peoples mouth and there's not a news article for every word said in existence.

Not a single quote you made came from a person though dumbass.... Each and every one of these quotes you claimed was said comes from major newspapers, which means that the original quote can be found if it exists.... Seeing as how each and every one of these quotes so far has not been proven to exist, then it is safe to say that youre just being a dumba** as usual and are showing everyone how you can be so easily corrupted by what you find online.

Sometimes the quotes come from online articles and I just gave you one. A quote with a link from the New York Times affirming the cited quote from the Chicago turbine.

You gave one, and it wasnt even describing any of the original quotes you posted.... The article only gives him props for predicting one stock market crash in '87 (which could quite easily be a lucky guess) but the article does not acknowledge ANYTHING that has been said about him that you claim was said.

If these quotes he cited on his site were false, he'd have a potential lawsuit on his hands. And he's not just some nobody they never heard of, hes been on CNN, MSNBC, CBS, Oprah, etc. so they know who he is.

Its not illegal to trick idiots on the internet as dumb as you into believing everything someone says.... If it were, then Alex Jones would have been in jail by now.

Now facts that you don't understand.

Geo you dont even know what facts are, you look at facts and then throw them away in favor of whatever horsesh*t you can find to reinforce your idiotic views of the world, which has in turn made you the laughing stock of DDO.
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
imabench
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12/18/2012 3:42:35 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 12/18/2012 3:41:32 PM, darkkermit wrote:



Alright Geo, explain that --------->
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
Cody_Franklin
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12/18/2012 3:47:30 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 12/18/2012 3:41:32 PM, darkkermit wrote:
At 12/18/2012 3:39:26 PM, Cody_Franklin wrote:
I'm tentatively with Geo on this one. This dude is the real deal, and Geo is right about the praise both from Alex Jones and from mainstream networks. I would like to see a little more about his success rate (given research about the potential superiority of making predictions on coin-flips, for instance), rather than anecdotal confirmation, but it seems like he checks out otherwise.

My one objection is that, from what I read, he seems to be a fan of theatricality, which gives the sense that he's a bit hyperbolic, setting us up as if we live in some unique, fabled moment in history.

Most of the trends he states are wrong. Its just when he's right that he gets praise. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Like I said, I need to see his record. Concrete statistics. But most people are just dismissing him because it's a Geo post, or because he may be associated with Alex Jones. Or they're just mocking him without presenting arguments--imabench is a good example.

Look at this video:



Yea that didn't happen at all.

Sure. But I mean, that's anecdotal dismissal, which is just as inadmissible as anecdotal confirmation. I do find it problematic that he's so apocalyptic, because I think that, even if he is largely accurate, stunts like this lead him to vastly overplay his hand, almost to the extent that he claims a sovereign hold over the future.
darkkermit
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12/18/2012 3:55:24 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 12/18/2012 3:47:30 PM, Cody_Franklin wrote:
At 12/18/2012 3:41:32 PM, darkkermit wrote:
At 12/18/2012 3:39:26 PM, Cody_Franklin wrote:
I'm tentatively with Geo on this one. This dude is the real deal, and Geo is right about the praise both from Alex Jones and from mainstream networks. I would like to see a little more about his success rate (given research about the potential superiority of making predictions on coin-flips, for instance), rather than anecdotal confirmation, but it seems like he checks out otherwise.

My one objection is that, from what I read, he seems to be a fan of theatricality, which gives the sense that he's a bit hyperbolic, setting us up as if we live in some unique, fabled moment in history.

Most of the trends he states are wrong. Its just when he's right that he gets praise. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Like I said, I need to see his record. Concrete statistics. But most people are just dismissing him because it's a Geo post, or because he may be associated with Alex Jones. Or they're just mocking him without presenting arguments--imabench is a good example.

Just do a google search and you can probably find how many failed predictions he's made. Sometimes he does make predictions that are correct, I'll give you that. But other times he gives predictions that are unfalsifiable since how do you know when the prediction has been shown to be correct, since one can interpret it to be correct or not based on how you define the words he uses. If he gave more quantitative predictions or more specific predictions, then there would be a better case for it.

Look at this video:



Yea that didn't happen at all.

Sure. But I mean, that's anecdotal dismissal, which is just as inadmissible as anecdotal confirmation. I do find it problematic that he's so apocalyptic, because I think that, even if he is largely accurate, stunts like this lead him to vastly overplay his hand, almost to the extent that he claims a sovereign hold over the future.

How is that anecdotal dismissal. This is a clear case example of him coming up with a false prediction. Is your complaint that I didn't give you enough examples of false predictions he made, and I shouldn't dismiss him because he made one false prediction?
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GeoLaureate8
Posts: 12,252
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12/18/2012 3:57:43 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 12/18/2012 3:41:32 PM, darkkermit wrote:
Most of the trends he states are wrong. Its just when he's right that he gets praise.

Wait, you mean to tell me he's NOT a wizard? Ghasp! Thats a devastating blow!

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

I swear if I hear that phrase one more time...

Look at this video:



Yea that didn't happen at all.

Already saw those predictions. Not new to me, nice try.

Revolution: secession movement, record breaking gun sales, wave of Libertarians taking over GOP.

Food shortages: prior to Sandy, 2012 stockpiling.

Tax revolt: fiscal cliff frenzy is entirely about taxes. I hear nothing but tax debates on radio and news outlets.

Plus, these may manifest a bit later meaning the prediction is right but timing a minute off.

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.
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"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
darkkermit
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12/18/2012 3:58:14 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Should be noted that just because someone has made predictions in the past, doesn't mean that you should take future predictions at face value, especially if the future one's are more bizaree.

For example, making predictions is easy. If I drop a ball, it will fall to the ground. The sun will go up. And so forth. If I then make a prediction that the world will end tomorrow, you shouldn't believe that prediction because the other predictions were right.
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Cody_Franklin
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12/18/2012 4:03:59 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 12/18/2012 3:55:24 PM, darkkermit wrote:
At 12/18/2012 3:47:30 PM, Cody_Franklin wrote:
At 12/18/2012 3:41:32 PM, darkkermit wrote:
At 12/18/2012 3:39:26 PM, Cody_Franklin wrote:
I'm tentatively with Geo on this one. This dude is the real deal, and Geo is right about the praise both from Alex Jones and from mainstream networks. I would like to see a little more about his success rate (given research about the potential superiority of making predictions on coin-flips, for instance), rather than anecdotal confirmation, but it seems like he checks out otherwise.

My one objection is that, from what I read, he seems to be a fan of theatricality, which gives the sense that he's a bit hyperbolic, setting us up as if we live in some unique, fabled moment in history.

Most of the trends he states are wrong. Its just when he's right that he gets praise. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Like I said, I need to see his record. Concrete statistics. But most people are just dismissing him because it's a Geo post, or because he may be associated with Alex Jones. Or they're just mocking him without presenting arguments--imabench is a good example.

Just do a google search and you can probably find how many failed predictions he's made. Sometimes he does make predictions that are correct, I'll give you that. But other times he gives predictions that are unfalsifiable since how do you know when the prediction has been shown to be correct, since one can interpret it to be correct or not based on how you define the words he uses. If he gave more quantitative predictions or more specific predictions, then there would be a better case for it.

I don't want to know how many times he's failed. I want to know what his ratio of accurate to inaccurate predictions is, and how this compares to the average "expert predictor".

Look at this video:



Yea that didn't happen at all.

Sure. But I mean, that's anecdotal dismissal, which is just as inadmissible as anecdotal confirmation. I do find it problematic that he's so apocalyptic, because I think that, even if he is largely accurate, stunts like this lead him to vastly overplay his hand, almost to the extent that he claims a sovereign hold over the future.

How is that anecdotal dismissal. This is a clear case example of him coming up with a false prediction.

"This isn't anecdotal dismissal. It's a clear anecdote in which he makes a false prediction!"

Is your complaint that I didn't give you enough examples of false predictions he made, and I shouldn't dismiss him because he made one false prediction?

No. My complaint is that just showing that he can make--or has made--one or more false predictions is not statistically significant. You could provide 20 examples of false predictions, but that doesn't tell us how many predictions he has made total, how many of them were correct, and how he compares to peers. Predicting financial events, for instance--does he tend to beat speculators?
Cody_Franklin
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12/18/2012 4:09:42 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 12/18/2012 3:57:43 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
At 12/18/2012 3:41:32 PM, darkkermit wrote:

Revolution: secession movement, record breaking gun sales, wave of Libertarians taking over GOP.

1. The secession thing was people signing dead-end petitions; it was neither revolutionary nor a "movement". You have to go somewhere to earn that designation.

2. "Gun sales were higher" is not revolutionary.

3. Libertarians neither came in "waves" nor "took over" the GOP. Even if libertarians have more representatives in the GOP, that is hardly a takeover.

4. Statistics for all, please.

Food shortages: prior to Sandy, 2012 stockpiling.

1. He did not tie food shortages to a natural disaster. Econ 101 will tell you that people stock up on supplies when a big storm or something is involved.

2. He predicted "riots" and "marches"--not "stockpiling".

3. The shortages were localized.

Tax revolt: fiscal cliff frenzy is entirely about taxes. I hear nothing but tax debates on radio and news outlets.

1. "Frenzy" is a rhetorical term, not an argumentative one.

2. Debate/discussion of the fiscal cliff by mainstream media outlets is a) not a revolt, and b) more likely a marketing ploy.

Plus, these may manifest a bit later meaning the prediction is right but timing a minute off.

"May" is not a case for this person's present accuracy, which is what we're asking for.
Cody_Franklin
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12/18/2012 4:14:20 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
I also agree with kermit that you may be setting up predictions to be unfalsifiable--if X thing hasn't come to pass, it's not that the prediction is wrong: it's just a little late, but still on its way. People easily dismiss apocalypse cults, and many also poke fun at the Krugman-esque line that "if stimulus hasn't fixed the economy, then we just haven't stimulated enough". Unless there's concrete, statistical evidence of his above-average accuracy, I don't know that I'm convinced.
darkkermit
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12/18/2012 4:37:47 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 12/18/2012 4:14:20 PM, Cody_Franklin wrote:
I also agree with kermit that you may be setting up predictions to be unfalsifiable--if X thing hasn't come to pass, it's not that the prediction is wrong: it's just a little late, but still on its way. People easily dismiss apocalypse cults, and many also poke fun at the Krugman-esque line that "if stimulus hasn't fixed the economy, then we just haven't stimulated enough". Unless there's concrete, statistical evidence of his above-average accuracy, I don't know that I'm convinced.

I've looked up information on the effect of fiscal multipliers effect on economic recovery. In nations with high debt to GDP ratios, the fiscal multiplier is close to zero and negative in the long run, so while I agree in general with keynesian economics I don't agree with with the stimulus used recently since the US is a highly indebted nation.
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darkkermit
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12/18/2012 4:39:48 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
I'd be convinced that Gerald Celente would be a great predictater if he profited off his predictions. Its pretty easy to use prediction on the future to make money in financial markets.
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Wallstreetatheist
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12/18/2012 6:38:58 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
I invested my entire life savings with the Trends Research Institute, so he better be accurate.
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