Total Posts:5|Showing Posts:1-5
Jump to topic:

If we go over the cliff, Obama will win

Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
12/31/2012 6:53:35 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
This is a blog article I wrote a few days ago, but it is still listed as pending. Obviously if it doesn't post until after Jan 1st, it is kind of meaningless so I am posting it here.

========

While Obama and Democrats may come out in public as wanting to find a compromise to solve the pending tax hikes and spending cuts that automatically kick in next week, they are likely fully aware how beneficial it will be for them to keep going full steam ahead.

The biggest reason that they want to go over, and must claim that they want compromise, is because most Americans will blame the Republicans for going over [1]. If going over tanks the economy (as most economists think it will), Democrats will make out like bandits in the 2014 midterm election. This is vital for them, since historically, a president"s 2nd midterm (their 6th year in office) has been bad news for their party. Every two term president (aside from Clinton, who only gained 4 seats in congress) has lost significant seats in both houses going back to FDR (and that was because I didn"t go further back than Truman). Normally, it would be likely for the republicans to take a number of seats and possibly take the Senate (or at least get them much further from being able to do anything), especially given that most of the seats running are Democrats (20 of the 33). Should the democrats hold and even do well in 2014, that sets them up for a major leap in 2016 (when 24 or 34 seats for election are Republicans).

The next reason is because after going over the cliff, the Republicans will not have their prime reason for not compromising, "no higher taxes." Right now, Obama and the Democrats want to keep the taxes low for middle and lower classes, and let them go higher for the higher earners. But most Republicans are not accepting any of those deals because they see those deals as raising taxes on the wealthier class. However, once taxes have been raised automatically, they can no longer cling to "we won"t sign anything that will raise someone"s taxes." After the cliff, they will be the ones refusing tax cuts for Americans, which will only further polarize them and drive people away. Should they give in after the cliff, it will only send the message that the Democrats were right all along and that will cost them as well. They will be caught in a catch 22.

The final reason is because going over the fiscal cliff is being made a much bigger deal than it really is. Since Congress can apply tax cuts retro-actively [2], there is actually very little damage done by them not agreeing right now. True, once we go over, employers will begin withholding at the higher rate, and you won"t get that money back until 2014, when you file for taxes, but that is miniscule for most Americans, and certainly not as big of a deal as what it is made out to be. One can speculate on the reason that this is being blown so out of portion (could be because it so well helps the democrats and many believe that the media is heavily biased in the democrat"s favor), but that can be a different post for a different day.

[1] http://www.huffingtonpost.com...

[2] http://www.washingtonpost.com...
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Wnope
Posts: 6,924
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
12/31/2012 8:52:23 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
I'd amend your argument by saying Obama would benefit only if BOTH the cliff weren't averted AND the democratically composed "fallback measure" (which will stop tax cuts for the middle and lower classes) passes.

He will get annihilated for lack of leadership if we go over the cliff, taxes rise on lower and middle class, and congress can't pass the fallback bill. He'd also get attacked for "destroying the military."

Ultimately, the BEST scenario for Obama is passing the kind of bill that's being crafted now and looking like he was relevant. The Republicans have backed away from attacking entitlement and their stance on taxes is limited to choosing where the income rate should be for "wealthy."
tmar19652
Posts: 727
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
12/31/2012 9:41:41 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 12/31/2012 6:53:35 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
This is a blog article I wrote a few days ago, but it is still listed as pending. Obviously if it doesn't post until after Jan 1st, it is kind of meaningless so I am posting it here.

========

While Obama and Democrats may come out in public as wanting to find a compromise to solve the pending tax hikes and spending cuts that automatically kick in next week, they are likely fully aware how beneficial it will be for them to keep going full steam ahead.

The biggest reason that they want to go over, and must claim that they want compromise, is because most Americans will blame the Republicans for going over [1]. If going over tanks the economy (as most economists think it will), Democrats will make out like bandits in the 2014 midterm election. This is vital for them, since historically, a president"s 2nd midterm (their 6th year in office) has been bad news for their party. Every two term president (aside from Clinton, who only gained 4 seats in congress) has lost significant seats in both houses going back to FDR (and that was because I didn"t go further back than Truman). Normally, it would be likely for the republicans to take a number of seats and possibly take the Senate (or at least get them much further from being able to do anything), especially given that most of the seats running are Democrats (20 of the 33). Should the democrats hold and even do well in 2014, that sets them up for a major leap in 2016 (when 24 or 34 seats for election are Republicans).

The next reason is because after going over the cliff, the Republicans will not have their prime reason for not compromising, "no higher taxes." Right now, Obama and the Democrats want to keep the taxes low for middle and lower classes, and let them go higher for the higher earners. But most Republicans are not accepting any of those deals because they see those deals as raising taxes on the wealthier class. However, once taxes have been raised automatically, they can no longer cling to "we won"t sign anything that will raise someone"s taxes." After the cliff, they will be the ones refusing tax cuts for Americans, which will only further polarize them and drive people away. Should they give in after the cliff, it will only send the message that the Democrats were right all along and that will cost them as well. They will be caught in a catch 22.

The final reason is because going over the fiscal cliff is being made a much bigger deal than it really is. Since Congress can apply tax cuts retro-actively [2], there is actually very little damage done by them not agreeing right now. True, once we go over, employers will begin withholding at the higher rate, and you won"t get that money back until 2014, when you file for taxes, but that is miniscule for most Americans, and certainly not as big of a deal as what it is made out to be. One can speculate on the reason that this is being blown so out of portion (could be because it so well helps the democrats and many believe that the media is heavily biased in the democrat"s favor), but that can be a different post for a different day.

[1] http://www.huffingtonpost.com...

[2] http://www.washingtonpost.com...

Whether or not the democrats are right, the american people will blame republicans for going over the fiscal cliff.
"Politics is supposed to be the second-oldest profession. I have come to realize that it bears a very close resemblance to the first." -Ronald Reagan

"The notion of political correctness declares certain topics, certain ex<x>pressions even certain gestures off-limits. What began as a crusade for civility has soured into a cause of conflict and even censorship." -George H.W. Bush
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/1/2013 11:32:05 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 12/31/2012 9:41:41 PM, tmar19652 wrote:
At 12/31/2012 6:53:35 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
This is a blog article I wrote a few days ago, but it is still listed as pending. Obviously if it doesn't post until after Jan 1st, it is kind of meaningless so I am posting it here.

========

While Obama and Democrats may come out in public as wanting to find a compromise to solve the pending tax hikes and spending cuts that automatically kick in next week, they are likely fully aware how beneficial it will be for them to keep going full steam ahead.

The biggest reason that they want to go over, and must claim that they want compromise, is because most Americans will blame the Republicans for going over [1]. If going over tanks the economy (as most economists think it will), Democrats will make out like bandits in the 2014 midterm election. This is vital for them, since historically, a president"s 2nd midterm (their 6th year in office) has been bad news for their party. Every two term president (aside from Clinton, who only gained 4 seats in congress) has lost significant seats in both houses going back to FDR (and that was because I didn"t go further back than Truman). Normally, it would be likely for the republicans to take a number of seats and possibly take the Senate (or at least get them much further from being able to do anything), especially given that most of the seats running are Democrats (20 of the 33). Should the democrats hold and even do well in 2014, that sets them up for a major leap in 2016 (when 24 or 34 seats for election are Republicans).

The next reason is because after going over the cliff, the Republicans will not have their prime reason for not compromising, "no higher taxes." Right now, Obama and the Democrats want to keep the taxes low for middle and lower classes, and let them go higher for the higher earners. But most Republicans are not accepting any of those deals because they see those deals as raising taxes on the wealthier class. However, once taxes have been raised automatically, they can no longer cling to "we won"t sign anything that will raise someone"s taxes." After the cliff, they will be the ones refusing tax cuts for Americans, which will only further polarize them and drive people away. Should they give in after the cliff, it will only send the message that the Democrats were right all along and that will cost them as well. They will be caught in a catch 22.

The final reason is because going over the fiscal cliff is being made a much bigger deal than it really is. Since Congress can apply tax cuts retro-actively [2], there is actually very little damage done by them not agreeing right now. True, once we go over, employers will begin withholding at the higher rate, and you won"t get that money back until 2014, when you file for taxes, but that is miniscule for most Americans, and certainly not as big of a deal as what it is made out to be. One can speculate on the reason that this is being blown so out of portion (could be because it so well helps the democrats and many believe that the media is heavily biased in the democrat"s favor), but that can be a different post for a different day.

[1] http://www.huffingtonpost.com...

[2] http://www.washingtonpost.com...

Whether or not the democrats are right, the american people will blame republicans for going over the fiscal cliff.

That's what I was saying. I wasn't at any point trying to say one side was right or wrong, but that one side will benefit greatly from it.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/1/2013 11:34:06 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 12/31/2012 8:52:23 PM, Wnope wrote:
I'd amend your argument by saying Obama would benefit only if BOTH the cliff weren't averted AND the democratically composed "fallback measure" (which will stop tax cuts for the middle and lower classes) passes.

He will get annihilated for lack of leadership if we go over the cliff, taxes rise on lower and middle class, and congress can't pass the fallback bill. He'd also get attacked for "destroying the military."

Ultimately, the BEST scenario for Obama is passing the kind of bill that's being crafted now and looking like he was relevant. The Republicans have backed away from attacking entitlement and their stance on taxes is limited to choosing where the income rate should be for "wealthy."

But there is no reason for them to not once we go over (as we already have). The main reason that the republicans have been holding strong against it is because they might be seen as voting to raise taxes. That is no longer the case as the taxes automatically went up. Now it is all about lowering them.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"