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Crime and Gun Control Correlations

FREEDO
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1/25/2013 12:19:51 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
Both sides argue that their side reduces crime rates.

Based on the information here:

1. http://en.wikipedia.org...
2. http://en.wikipedia.org...

I made this graph:
http://oi47.tinypic.com...

There is nothing resembling a correlation either way.
GRAND POOBAH OF DDO

fnord
FREEDO
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1/25/2013 12:21:23 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
The US is so weird. It's always on the outskirts in every graph I see. Perhaps the only reason for me to actually like the US.
GRAND POOBAH OF DDO

fnord
Wallstreetatheist
Posts: 7,132
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1/25/2013 12:22:34 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
Take the same population in a given statistical area, establish a gun control law, what happens?
DRUG HARM: http://imgur.com...
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FREEDO
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1/25/2013 12:25:10 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/25/2013 12:22:34 AM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
Take the same population in a given statistical area, establish a gun control law, what happens?

Show me stats. I've seen a lot of stats by gun rights advocates but they have all been wildly different.
GRAND POOBAH OF DDO

fnord
bossyburrito
Posts: 14,075
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1/25/2013 12:42:11 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/25/2013 12:21:23 AM, FREEDO wrote:
The US is so weird. It's always on the outskirts in every graph I see. Perhaps the only reason for me to actually like the US.

Different cultural climate I suppose.
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GeoLaureate8
Posts: 12,252
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1/25/2013 12:46:07 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
Dept. of Justice Graph: More Guns Less Crime
http://static.prisonplanet.com...

Daily Mail: UK More Violent Crime Than U.S.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk...

Wall Street Journal: UK Australia Gun Laws Provided No Extra SafetySafety
http://online.wsj.com...

Switzerland One of the Safest Places Despite Armed Populace
http://travelsplendid.com...

National Safety Council: Guns Used 80 Times More to Save Lives Than Murder
http://www.nsc.org...

Gun debate over.
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
darkkermit
Posts: 11,204
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1/25/2013 12:48:59 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
i give you credit for putting all that work in, to get nothing out of it. It actually looked like a corrleation between guns and crime. I wanted to check the r^2 value, but realized how much work it would take, so said fvck it i dont care.
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FREEDO
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1/25/2013 12:53:50 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/25/2013 12:46:07 AM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
Dept. of Justice Graph: More Guns Less Crime
http://static.prisonplanet.com...

There is no connection between the two based on that graph. Gun ownership has gradually gone up. Crime was bump until the 90s when abortion was legalized, which, in theory, is what reduced the crime rate so dramatically.

Daily Mail: UK More Violent Crime Than U.S.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk...

The Daily Mail is not a reliable source.

Wall Street Journal: UK Australia Gun Laws Provided No Extra SafetySafety
http://online.wsj.com...

Accepted. Because gun laws have no effect on crime rates.

Switzerland One of the Safest Places Despite Armed Populace
http://travelsplendid.com...

Accepted. Because the amount of guns has no effect on crime rate. Many of the other safest countries have extremely few guns.

National Safety Council: Guns Used 80 Times More to Save Lives Than Murder
http://www.nsc.org...

No comment. Your link doesn't go to any stats and I don't know what the National Safety Council is.

Gun debate over.

"A conclusion is what one reaches when they have stopped thinking."
GRAND POOBAH OF DDO

fnord
lewis20
Posts: 5,093
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1/25/2013 12:57:04 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/25/2013 12:48:59 AM, darkkermit wrote:
i give you credit for putting all that work in, to get nothing out of it. It actually looked like a corrleation between guns and crime. I wanted to check the r^2 value, but realized how much work it would take, so said fvck it i dont care.

Can't you pretty well tell that there's little if any correlation just by looking at it?
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GeoLaureate8
Posts: 12,252
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1/25/2013 1:11:29 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/25/2013 12:53:50 AM, FREEDO wrote:
At 1/25/2013 12:46:07 AM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
Dept. of Justice Graph: More Guns Less Crime
http://static.prisonplanet.com...

There is no connection between the two based on that graph. Gun ownership has gradually gone up. Crime was bump until the 90s when abortion was legalized, which, in theory, is what reduced the crime rate so dramatically.

Absurd. What evidence is there that says more abortion less crime.

The correlation is more guns less crime. The causation is good guys with guns stop bad guys with guns and convicted felons admit that they don't want their victims armed.

Daily Mail: UK More Violent Crime Than U.S.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk...

The Daily Mail is not a reliable source.

Says you. I can say your source isn't reliable too.

Wall Street Journal: UK Australia Gun Laws Provided No Extra SafetySafety
http://online.wsj.com...

Accepted. Because gun laws have no effect on crime rates.

Yes, gun bans don't deter crime whether they dry up the supply or not because people with knives will murder people.

Switzerland One of the Safest Places Despite Armed Populace
http://travelsplendid.com...

Accepted. Because the amount of guns has no effect on crime rate. Many of the other safest countries have extremely few guns.

No proof. Also, the unarmed populace isn't safe from their own government or foreign governments even if the crime rate is low.

National Safety Council: Guns Used 80 Times More to Save Lives Than Murder
http://www.nsc.org...

No comment. Your link doesn't go to any stats and I don't know what the National Safety Council is.

Gun debate over.

"A conclusion is what one reaches when they have stopped thinking."

False. I learned and engaged in plenty of thought over the past 6 months despite already concluding that gun rights are good. Also, conclusions can change. I was once moderately opposed to gun ownership. Also, I don't literally think the gun debate should end, I find it particularly entertaining because I can proficiently dismantle gun control fascists. Kind of like landing repeated slam dunks.
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
ax123man
Posts: 317
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1/25/2013 6:58:55 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
Correlating gun control with gun violence is typical of the shallow thinking that goes into political discourse. The only thing that makes sense to me is to correlate gun control with overall violence, while also eliminating all other factors affecting said violence. This is pretty much impossible to do, so these statistics are probably not that relevant. What is relevant? One, we should speak of individuals not society or "we". To do otherwise is the same as saying "I don't care what you people over there think. I'm going to get the guys with the BIG guns to force my opinions onto you". Politicians love this because it ultimately gives them more power. Two, anybody who thinks eliminating gun ownership won't result in increasing abuse of power by authorities is blind.

Beyond that, I personally think the government (and military) should be held to the same laws and standards of morality that the rest of us are.

(I believe the abortion vs violence evidence came from freakonomics, but has been found to be full of holes. Levitt seems a bit of an opportunist to me)
royalpaladin
Posts: 22,357
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1/25/2013 7:03:38 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/25/2013 1:11:29 AM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
At 1/25/2013 12:53:50 AM, FREEDO wrote:
At 1/25/2013 12:46:07 AM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
Dept. of Justice Graph: More Guns Less Crime
http://static.prisonplanet.com...

There is no connection between the two based on that graph. Gun ownership has gradually gone up. Crime was bump until the 90s when abortion was legalized, which, in theory, is what reduced the crime rate so dramatically.

Absurd. What evidence is there that says more abortion less crime.

I'm fairly certain that if you don't arrest people for having abortions, the crime rate decreases dramatically because it is no longer treated as a crime. You are strawmannng.
The correlation is more guns less crime. The causation is good guys with guns stop bad guys with guns and convicted felons admit that they don't want their victims armed.

Daily Mail: UK More Violent Crime Than U.S.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk...

The Daily Mail is not a reliable source.

Says you. I can say your source isn't reliable too.

Wall Street Journal: UK Australia Gun Laws Provided No Extra SafetySafety
http://online.wsj.com...

Accepted. Because gun laws have no effect on crime rates.

Yes, gun bans don't deter crime whether they dry up the supply or not because people with knives will murder people.

Switzerland One of the Safest Places Despite Armed Populace
http://travelsplendid.com...

Accepted. Because the amount of guns has no effect on crime rate. Many of the other safest countries have extremely few guns.

No proof. Also, the unarmed populace isn't safe from their own government or foreign governments even if the crime rate is low.

National Safety Council: Guns Used 80 Times More to Save Lives Than Murder
http://www.nsc.org...

No comment. Your link doesn't go to any stats and I don't know what the National Safety Council is.

Gun debate over.

"A conclusion is what one reaches when they have stopped thinking."

False. I learned and engaged in plenty of thought over the past 6 months despite already concluding that gun rights are good. Also, conclusions can change. I was once moderately opposed to gun ownership. Also, I don't literally think the gun debate should end, I find it particularly entertaining because I can proficiently dismantle gun control fascists. Kind of like landing repeated slam dunks.
OberHerr
Posts: 13,062
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1/25/2013 7:06:27 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/25/2013 7:03:38 AM, royalpaladin wrote:
At 1/25/2013 1:11:29 AM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
At 1/25/2013 12:53:50 AM, FREEDO wrote:
At 1/25/2013 12:46:07 AM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
Dept. of Justice Graph: More Guns Less Crime
http://static.prisonplanet.com...

There is no connection between the two based on that graph. Gun ownership has gradually gone up. Crime was bump until the 90s when abortion was legalized, which, in theory, is what reduced the crime rate so dramatically.

Absurd. What evidence is there that says more abortion less crime.

I'm fairly certain that if you don't arrest people for having abortions, the crime rate decreases dramatically because it is no longer treated as a crime. You are strawmannng.

Cause, you know, illegal abortions were SOOO common. /sarcasm
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royalpaladin
Posts: 22,357
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1/25/2013 7:07:43 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/25/2013 7:06:27 AM, OberHerr wrote:
At 1/25/2013 7:03:38 AM, royalpaladin wrote:
At 1/25/2013 1:11:29 AM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
At 1/25/2013 12:53:50 AM, FREEDO wrote:
At 1/25/2013 12:46:07 AM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
Dept. of Justice Graph: More Guns Less Crime
http://static.prisonplanet.com...

There is no connection between the two based on that graph. Gun ownership has gradually gone up. Crime was bump until the 90s when abortion was legalized, which, in theory, is what reduced the crime rate so dramatically.

Absurd. What evidence is there that says more abortion less crime.

I'm fairly certain that if you don't arrest people for having abortions, the crime rate decreases dramatically because it is no longer treated as a crime. You are strawmannng.

Cause, you know, illegal abortions were SOOO common. /sarcasm

Yes, abortions were actually pretty common when it was illegal. It was much less regulated and more dangerous, however.
Avamys
Posts: 8
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2/18/2013 6:40:55 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
Both sides only look at one or two factors. They only consider the population which owns guns, then the crime rate. What about other things which can affect the crime rate such as the number of people below the poverty line, the unemployment rate, number of policemen and such? There are a lot of factors which haven't been considered.
malcolmxy
Posts: 2,855
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2/18/2013 8:16:26 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/25/2013 12:19:51 AM, FREEDO wrote:
Both sides argue that their side reduces crime rates.

Based on the information here:

1. http://en.wikipedia.org...
2. http://en.wikipedia.org...

I made this graph:
http://oi47.tinypic.com...

There is nothing resembling a correlation either way.

Do raw number of gun murder, gun suicide and gun accidents (combined) next to per capita gun ownership. You'll see it.

Murder isn't the only way guns kill...not even close.
War is over, if you want it.

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16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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2/18/2013 10:23:12 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/25/2013 12:19:51 AM, FREEDO wrote:
Both sides argue that their side reduces crime rates.

Based on the information here:

1. http://en.wikipedia.org...
2. http://en.wikipedia.org...

I made this graph:
http://oi47.tinypic.com...

There is nothing resembling a correlation either way.

On my facebook using the data from the first world I find a small negative correlation - more guns less crime. But comparing countries is a fairly invalid way to make strong conclusions.
http://www.amazon.com...
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
16kadams
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2/18/2013 10:26:34 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/25/2013 12:22:34 AM, Wallstreetatheist wrote:
Take the same population in a given statistical area, establish a gun control law, what happens?

Gary Kleck's 1997 book finds in America it leads to less crime, in the UK it has no effect, except for robbery in London. I recommend you read his 1991 book as well. It uses that data and finds, usually, slight negative relationships (more guns less crime). John Lott in his book did a larger survey of American stats and finds guns have a large deterrent effect. When population is controlled for, more guns usually equal less crime. Tell me if this shows up because I was able to semi-control for population:
http://www.facebook.com...
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
DanT
Posts: 5,693
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2/18/2013 10:28:51 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/25/2013 12:19:51 AM, FREEDO wrote:
Both sides argue that their side reduces crime rates.

Based on the information here:

1. http://en.wikipedia.org...
2. http://en.wikipedia.org...

I made this graph:
http://oi47.tinypic.com...

There is nothing resembling a correlation either way.

I made a graph awhile back using wiki's;
Number of guns per capita by country
http://en.wikipedia.org...
and
List of countries by firearm-related death rate
http://en.wikipedia.org...

The result was;
Sxy = -684.5859726
Sxx = 15126.19479
b1 = -0.045258307
SST = 9902.222263
SSR = 30.98320234
SSE = 9871.24
LIS = 7.076568236
r = 0.05594
r" = 0.00313
y = -0.0453x + 7.0766
http://i12.servimg.com...

There is No or negligible Correlation between firearm-related death rates and guns per capita. Furthermore, the Error is too high for this model to be an efficient indicator of anything.
"Chemical weapons are no different than any other types of weapons."~Lordknukle
16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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2/18/2013 10:32:18 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/25/2013 12:53:50 AM, FREEDO wrote:
At 1/25/2013 12:46:07 AM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
Dept. of Justice Graph: More Guns Less Crime
http://static.prisonplanet.com...

There is no connection between the two based on that graph. Gun ownership has gradually gone up. Crime was bump until the 90s when abortion was legalized, which, in theory, is what reduced the crime rate so dramatically.

The abortion-crime theory is really weak based on the research, most economists and criminologists have debunked the issue. I would say almost all studies by criminologists (using less advanced models) disprove it, and the models by John Lott and Joyce are stronger than Levitt's.


Daily Mail: UK More Violent Crime Than U.S.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk...

The Daily Mail is not a reliable source.

Wall Street Journal: UK Australia Gun Laws Provided No Extra SafetySafety
http://online.wsj.com...

Accepted. Because gun laws have no effect on crime rates.

Their crime increased after the laws.
http://www.amazon.com...

Switzerland One of the Safest Places Despite Armed Populace
http://travelsplendid.com...

Accepted. Because the amount of guns has no effect on crime rate. Many of the other safest countries have extremely few guns.

Comparing countries is invalid. It is better to look at trends before and after the laws within the specific country, gun control increases crime. Though if we insist on cross sectional data, this study refutes the claim of no effect and finds guns lower crime.
http://www.law.harvard.edu...


National Safety Council: Guns Used 80 Times More to Save Lives Than Murder
http://www.nsc.org...

No comment. Your link doesn't go to any stats and I don't know what the National Safety Council is.

http://www.guncite.com...


Gun debate over.

"A conclusion is what one reaches when they have stopped thinking."

I agree with this actually.
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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2/18/2013 10:37:24 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/25/2013 6:58:55 AM, ax123man wrote:
Correlating gun control with gun violence is typical of the shallow thinking that goes into political discourse. The only thing that makes sense to me is to correlate gun control with overall violence, while also eliminating all other factors affecting said violence. This is pretty much impossible to do, so these statistics are probably not that relevant. What is relevant? One, we should speak of individuals not society or "we". To do otherwise is the same as saying "I don't care what you people over there think. I'm going to get the guys with the BIG guns to force my opinions onto you". Politicians love this because it ultimately gives them more power. Two, anybody who thinks eliminating gun ownership won't result in increasing abuse of power by authorities is blind.

Beyond that, I personally think the government (and military) should be held to the same laws and standards of morality that the rest of us are.

(I believe the abortion vs violence evidence came from freakonomics, but has been found to be full of holes. Levitt seems a bit of an opportunist to me)

The abortion link is fully discredited, though I am open minded to it being correct if better research comes to light...

Anyway, this book does exactly what you said it should do:
http://www.amazon.com...
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
malcolmxy
Posts: 2,855
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2/18/2013 10:46:49 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
Mexico is the only outlier. Notice how every other country falls on a straight line which cuts the plane almost precisely in half.

where are my stats folks who can tell me what that means?

http://static3.businessinsider.com...

just like i said already.
War is over, if you want it.

Meet Dr. Stupid and his assistants - http://www.debate.org...
16kadams
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2/18/2013 10:47:33 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 2/18/2013 10:46:49 AM, malcolmxy wrote:
Mexico is the only outlier. Notice how every other country falls on a straight line which cuts the plane almost precisely in half.

where are my stats folks who can tell me what that means?

http://static3.businessinsider.com...

just like i said already.

In my graph I only used first world countries.
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
malcolmxy
Posts: 2,855
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2/18/2013 10:50:21 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
OMG - that's crazy. You mean less people die from guns when there are less guns around?

Why, that might just be crazy enough to work...still, sounds too good to be true...are you sure?

Less guns = less gun deaths ?????

I don't know about that...
War is over, if you want it.

Meet Dr. Stupid and his assistants - http://www.debate.org...
malcolmxy
Posts: 2,855
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2/18/2013 10:54:57 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 2/18/2013 10:47:33 AM, 16kadams wrote:
At 2/18/2013 10:46:49 AM, malcolmxy wrote:
Mexico is the only outlier. Notice how every other country falls on a straight line which cuts the plane almost precisely in half.

where are my stats folks who can tell me what that means?

http://static3.businessinsider.com...

just like i said already.

In my graph I only used first world countries.

Congrats, because IT DOESN'T F*CKING MATTER.

Mexico is in a country-wide gang war for control of the US Drug Market and they are the ONLY outlier.

Every other nation, 1st world, former communist block, third world - EVERY ONE OF THEM shows a strong correlation to more guns=more gun death.

That's the beauty of this one. The data works across the board. You could even take out countries and just use geographical regions, or you could break it down further by cities, and it would ALWAYS WORK.

Take away guns and less people die by gun.

It's truly like magic, except, it's completely f*cking logical and anyone who tries to argue against it is going to look like a fool.
War is over, if you want it.

Meet Dr. Stupid and his assistants - http://www.debate.org...
16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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2/18/2013 11:15:19 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 2/18/2013 10:50:21 AM, malcolmxy wrote:
OMG - that's crazy. You mean less people die from guns when there are less guns around?

Why, that might just be crazy enough to work...still, sounds too good to be true...are you sure?

Less guns = less gun deaths ?????

I don't know about that...

You only calculate murders with guns, but ignore the defensive usages with guns.
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
malcolmxy
Posts: 2,855
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2/18/2013 11:17:04 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 2/18/2013 10:54:57 AM, malcolmxy wrote:
At 2/18/2013 10:47:33 AM, 16kadams wrote:
At 2/18/2013 10:46:49 AM, malcolmxy wrote:
Mexico is the only outlier. Notice how every other country falls on a straight line which cuts the plane almost precisely in half.

where are my stats folks who can tell me what that means?

http://static3.businessinsider.com...

just like i said already.

In my graph I only used first world countries.

Congrats, because IT DOESN'T F*CKING MATTER.

Mexico is in a country-wide gang war for control of the US Drug Market and they are the ONLY outlier.

Every other nation, 1st world, former communist block, third world - EVERY ONE OF THEM shows a strong correlation to more guns=more gun death.

That's the beauty of this one. The data works across the board. You could even take out countries and just use geographical regions, or you could break it down further by cities, and it would ALWAYS WORK.

Take away guns and less people die by gun.

It's truly like magic, except, it's completely f*cking logical and anyone who tries to argue against it is going to look like a fool.

http://www.childrensdefense.org...

Hey...look - 1/2 of our gun deaths, on a per capita basis, happen to children under 19 years old. (4/100K as opposed to 8/100K total).

So, here's what we know - more guns = more gun death
In the US, children under 19yo comprise 1/2 of the per capita gun deaths.

OK, quick show of hands - WHO WANTS TO GET MORE GUNS TO PROTECT CHILDREN IN THIS COUNTRY?
War is over, if you want it.

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16kadams
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2/18/2013 11:19:37 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 2/18/2013 10:54:57 AM, malcolmxy wrote:
At 2/18/2013 10:47:33 AM, 16kadams wrote:
At 2/18/2013 10:46:49 AM, malcolmxy wrote:
Mexico is the only outlier. Notice how every other country falls on a straight line which cuts the plane almost precisely in half.

where are my stats folks who can tell me what that means?

http://static3.businessinsider.com...

just like i said already.

In my graph I only used first world countries.

Congrats, because IT DOESN'T F*CKING MATTER.

Why? this means Mexico and other hell holes aren't counted and, therefore, don't cause spurious assumptions.


Mexico is in a country-wide gang war for control of the US Drug Market and they are the ONLY outlier.

Every other nation, 1st world, former communist block, third world - EVERY ONE OF THEM shows a strong correlation to more guns=more gun death.

That is false. Estonia, Lithuania, Russia, etc. are great examples for the pro-gun crowd.


That's the beauty of this one. The data works across the board. You could even take out countries and just use geographical regions, or you could break it down further by cities, and it would ALWAYS WORK.

It has been done, by Gary Kleck. He finds guns reduces crime when you use that data.


Take away guns and less people die by gun.

Explain why gun crime decreases when conceal carry laws are passed, and why gun crime increases after gun bans.


It's truly like magic, except, it's completely f*cking logical and anyone who tries to argue against it is going to look like a fool.

Ad homineim.
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"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross