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Another reason for the Iraq War

I-am-a-panda
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1/15/2010 1:12:27 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
In my history class (Since the Euro was mentioned during a section regarding European history), my history teacher mentioned Saddam changing to the Euro for payment of oil was effectively the biggest reason for the Iraq war, since Saddam had effectively undermined the American regime and the greenback.

"The Real Reasons for this upcoming war is this administration's goal of preventing further OPEC momentum towards the euro as an oil transaction currency standard, and to secure control of Iraq's oil before the onset of Peak Oil (predicted to occur around 2010). However, in order to pre-empt OPEC, they need to gain geo-strategic control of Iraq along with its 2nd largest proven oil reserves." -- http://www.ratical.org...

Also, "Iraq says it will no longer accept dollars for oil because it does not want to deal "in the currency of the enemy".....The move hurts Iraq, the U.N. and the countries receiving reparations. So why is Saddam doing it? Diplomatic sources say switching to the euro will favor European suppliers over U.S. ones in competing for Iraqi contracts, and the p.r. boost that Baghdad would probably get in Europe would be another plus." -- http://www.time.com...

I don't know if I'm just behind everyone else on this, but I thought it was intriguing.
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Volkov
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1/15/2010 1:16:02 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
It was mentioned as a reason a couple of times, but if I remember correctly, there wasn't much substance to the rumour. Saddam could have announced switching to the Euro, however, the EU's main power brokers - UK, France and Germany - I doubt would have been keen on such a thing, since it would almost assuredly damage their exports and imports, given the Euro's stronger position and the US's short temper.
Volkov
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1/15/2010 1:18:32 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
Plus, Iraq wouldn't have much benefit from it. Trading in a stronger currency means running down your exports. It would have been for publicity, if nothing else.
I-am-a-panda
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1/15/2010 1:21:08 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 1/15/2010 1:16:02 PM, Volkov wrote:
It was mentioned as a reason a couple of times, but if I remember correctly, there wasn't much substance to the rumour. Saddam could have announced switching to the Euro, however, the EU's main power brokers - UK, France and Germany - I doubt would have been keen on such a thing, since it would almost assuredly damage their exports and imports, given the Euro's stronger position and the US's short temper.

Right, but Saddam saw the Euros potential, what with the Irish Celtic tiger and the EU's probable expansion into the underdeveloped markets in Eastern Europe which would = €. Besides, no countries using the Euro were present in the invasion of Iraq, and countries like the UK and Poland possibly being forced into the Euro. Euro countries later sent token forces.
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Volkov
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1/15/2010 1:26:03 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 1/15/2010 1:21:08 PM, I-am-a-panda wrote:
Right, but Saddam saw the Euros potential, what with the Irish Celtic tiger and the EU's probable expansion into the underdeveloped markets in Eastern Europe which would = €.

That doesn't mean much. Switching from the greenback to the Euro would have essentially murdered Iraq's export in the short term, and the Eurozone would have suffered from US backlash. And the idea that OPEC would follow is almost foolish - the main drivers would never allow that to happen.

Besides, no countries using the Euro were present in the invasion of Iraq,

I could have sworn Slovakia, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Holland, and several others, were using the Euro...
I-am-a-panda
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1/15/2010 1:28:41 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 1/15/2010 1:26:03 PM, Volkov wrote:
At 1/15/2010 1:21:08 PM, I-am-a-panda wrote:
Right, but Saddam saw the Euros potential, what with the Irish Celtic tiger and the EU's probable expansion into the underdeveloped markets in Eastern Europe which would = €.

That doesn't mean much. Switching from the greenback to the Euro would have essentially murdered Iraq's export in the short term, and the Eurozone would have suffered from US backlash. And the idea that OPEC would follow is almost foolish - the main drivers would never allow that to happen.

In the short term. In the long term they would probably gain from the advantage. As for OPEC following suit, they only woudl if Iraqs endeavour proved profitable.

Why would the U.S. penalise the EU? The EU can't change Saddams mind on the issue.


Besides, no countries using the Euro were present in the invasion of Iraq,

I could have sworn Slovakia, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Holland, and several others, were using the Euro...

Yeah, the sent forces after the invasion, but I meant in 2003 when Iraq was occupied.
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Volkov
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1/15/2010 1:36:17 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 1/15/2010 1:28:41 PM, I-am-a-panda wrote:
In the short term. In the long term they would probably gain from the advantage.

Yes, but Saddam isn't Ragnar - he wouldn't have been willing to give up the stable, short-term benefits for the plausible long-term benefits. It would almost be zero-sum for him to try.

As for OPEC following suit, they only woudl if Iraqs endeavour proved profitable.

OPEC is controlled by the Sauds, and that is about it. The Sauds, the Iranians, the Venezuelans... they're all either indebted to the US or they're too fragile and scared sh*tless to change anything. Plus, it gives you little economic advantage for big losses in the transition.

Why would the U.S. penalise the EU? The EU can't change Saddams mind on the issue.

Actually the EU, and those that use the Euros, can, by simply refusing to trade in Euros with Iraq.

Yeah, the sent forces after the invasion, but I meant in 2003 when Iraq was occupied.

Spain most assuredly was, but even if the rest were not, that does not discount them as collaborators.
I-am-a-panda
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1/15/2010 1:43:56 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 1/15/2010 1:36:17 PM, Volkov wrote:
At 1/15/2010 1:28:41 PM, I-am-a-panda wrote:
In the short term. In the long term they would probably gain from the advantage.

Yes, but Saddam isn't Ragnar - he wouldn't have been willing to give up the stable, short-term benefits for the plausible long-term benefits. It would almost be zero-sum for him to try.

Lawl.


As for OPEC following suit, they only woudl if Iraqs endeavour proved profitable.

OPEC is controlled by the Sauds, and that is about it. The Sauds, the Iranians, the Venezuelans... they're all either indebted to the US or they're too fragile and scared sh*tless to change anything. Plus, it gives you little economic advantage for big losses in the transition.

Venezuela and Iran hate America. If Iraq changed to the Euro and it worked, they would change pretty quickly, as would other "infidels".


Why would the U.S. penalise the EU? The EU can't change Saddams mind on the issue.

Actually the EU, and those that use the Euros, can, by simply refusing to trade in Euros with Iraq.

Then they can't buy oil.


Yeah, the sent forces after the invasion, but I meant in 2003 when Iraq was occupied.

Spain most assuredly was, but even if the rest were not, that does not discount them as collaborators.

Once Iraq was invaded, America dominated t oil amrket, and needed help in Iraq. Want oil? Send troops.
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wjmelements
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1/15/2010 1:46:04 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
If that was the reason, Obama would have been briefed on it and then would have acted accordingly. He would not have withdrawn until at least after they switched back to the U.S.D.
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I-am-a-panda
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1/15/2010 1:49:59 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 1/15/2010 1:46:04 PM, wjmelements wrote:
If that was the reason, Obama would have been briefed on it and then would have acted accordingly. He would not have withdrawn until at least after they switched back to the U.S.D.

The still trade in the Euro?
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I-am-a-panda
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1/15/2010 1:50:10 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 1/15/2010 1:49:59 PM, I-am-a-panda wrote:
At 1/15/2010 1:46:04 PM, wjmelements wrote:
If that was the reason, Obama would have been briefed on it and then would have acted accordingly. He would not have withdrawn until at least after they switched back to the U.S.D.

They still trade in the Euro?
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wjmelements
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1/15/2010 1:51:00 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 1/15/2010 1:49:59 PM, I-am-a-panda wrote:
At 1/15/2010 1:46:04 PM, wjmelements wrote:
If that was the reason, Obama would have been briefed on it and then would have acted accordingly. He would not have withdrawn until at least after they switched back to the U.S.D.

They still trade in the Euro?

I don't believe they've changed back to USD, but I'm not that educated in modern foreign affairs.
in the blink of an eye you finally see the light
I-am-a-panda
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1/15/2010 1:54:38 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
Also, http://en.wikipedia.org...

"The Iranian Oil Bourse, International Oil Bourse, Iran Petroleum Exchange or Oil Bourse in Kish is a commodity exchange which opened on February 17, 2008. It was created by cooperation between Iranian ministries and other state and private institutions. The IOB is intended as an oil bourse for petroleum, petrochemicals and gas in various currencies, primarily the euro and Iranian rial and a basket of other major currencies apart from the United States dollar......During 2007, Iran asked its petroleum customers to pay in non US dollar currencies. By December 8, 2007, Iran reported to have converted all of its oil export payments to non-dollar currencies."
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Volkov
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1/15/2010 1:57:37 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 1/15/2010 1:43:56 PM, I-am-a-panda wrote:
Venezuela and Iran hate America. If Iraq changed to the Euro and it worked, they would change pretty quickly, as would other "infidels".

Venezuela's and Iran's administrations hate America, thats a given. However, they're also not stupid - switching to the Euro would be zero-sum in the short-term, and possibly in the long term. If there were any perceivable benefits, they would have done it quite awhile ago, even before Iraq - yet any talk has been just that, talk.

Then they can't buy oil.

Sure they can, thats the beauty of the free market - some country will probably take Iraq's place. Iraq needs the oil revenues more than the EU needs Iraq's oil - it is just more convenient with Iraq - aka. non-zero sum.

Mind you, this is all an academic exercise, because I don't know the Eurozone's dependence upon Iraqi oil - however I'm willing to bet that it isn't huge.

Once Iraq was invaded, America dominated t oil amrket, and needed help in Iraq. Want oil? Send troops.

Once Iraq was invaded, Iraq's oil production dropped exponentially, because even though all the infrastructure was intact, there was too much instability and not enough willing and experienced labour to keep it running smoothly.

If you want to make a conspiracy out of this, one a little more plausible than Euro-switching, try this: the Sauds were afraid of Hussein and is constant and erratic attitude to its neighbours, not to mention Iraq's surging oil fields. The US, which has always had a bone to pick with Hussein and Iraq, go in to grab the firmest hand possible on oil production, thereby benefitting the Sauds and the US. The US would then install a weak leader, leave, and go back home with astounding approval ratings. However, this doesn't work out completely to plan, and the US gets bogged down in insurgency warfare, al-Maliki is elected as head of government and surprises everyone with his strength, and the plan generally screws itself up.
I-am-a-panda
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1/15/2010 2:02:14 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 1/15/2010 1:57:37 PM, Volkov wrote:
At 1/15/2010 1:43:56 PM, I-am-a-panda wrote:
Venezuela and Iran hate America. If Iraq changed to the Euro and it worked, they would change pretty quickly, as would other "infidels".

Venezuela's and Iran's administrations hate America, thats a given. However, they're also not stupid - switching to the Euro would be zero-sum in the short-term, and possibly in the long term. If there were any perceivable benefits, they would have done it quite awhile ago, even before Iraq - yet any talk has been just that, talk.

See post 13.


Then they can't buy oil.

Sure they can, thats the beauty of the free market - some country will probably take Iraq's place. Iraq needs the oil revenues more than the EU needs Iraq's oil - it is just more convenient with Iraq - aka. non-zero sum.

Mind you, this is all an academic exercise, because I don't know the Eurozone's dependence upon Iraqi oil - however I'm willing to bet that it isn't huge.

See; Russia; North Sea.


Once Iraq was invaded, America dominated t oil amrket, and needed help in Iraq. Want oil? Send troops.

Once Iraq was invaded, Iraq's oil production dropped exponentially, because even though all the infrastructure was intact, there was too much instability and not enough willing and experienced labour to keep it running smoothly.

The U.S. had access to one of the worlds largest oil reserves. In the long term it would work to their advantage,


If you want to make a conspiracy out of this, one a little more plausible than Euro-switching, try this: the Sauds were afraid of Hussein and is constant and erratic attitude to its neighbours, not to mention Iraq's surging oil fields. The US, which has always had a bone to pick with Hussein and Iraq, go in to grab the firmest hand possible on oil production, thereby benefitting the Sauds and the US. The US would then install a weak leader, leave, and go back home with astounding approval ratings. However, this doesn't work out completely to plan, and the US gets bogged down in insurgency warfare, al-Maliki is elected as head of government and surprises everyone with his strength, and the plan generally screws itself up.

Hehe, that seems more coherent.
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Volkov
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1/15/2010 2:06:10 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
As I've read, apparently Iraq did switch to the Euro in 2000. However, this was because they did most of their trading with the EU. This was switched back when the US-backed administration was in place.

So, maybe it is a little more plausible than I thought. But, I stand by my convictions that this would not have been the main reason for invasion. There hasn't been any major note of impact by this decision onto the US market, and apparently it was repeatedly pushed back by Saddam, to the point where some are unsure it ever went through.