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Massachusetts Senatorial Election

Volkov
Posts: 9,765
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1/19/2010 5:09:06 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
The polls have just closed, and we're waiting for some results, and before Nags creates a topic with "DEMS LOZE HAHAHAHA" as the header, I'm heading him off.

So, if you're interested in the race, here is a nice flash program that updates ever 60 seconds: http://www.boston.com...

As we wait for the results, discussion is welcome, and a nice distraction from the drama over votes.
Volkov
Posts: 9,765
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1/19/2010 5:15:18 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 1/19/2010 5:13:45 PM, OreEle wrote:
does it really matter?

Sure it does. Its an election that can have major ramifications. To people that follow this stuff, it matters.
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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1/19/2010 5:21:52 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
Like what? The filibuster vote for republicans? As if the democrats haven't been totally unstopped so far.

besides, my predictions is Oakley 53 - 46.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Volkov
Posts: 9,765
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1/19/2010 5:23:37 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 1/19/2010 5:21:52 PM, OreEle wrote:
Like what? The filibuster vote for republicans? As if the democrats haven't been totally unstopped so far.

Fair enough, and I agree, since the Democrats will find a way, no matter what, to get healthcare through.

besides, my predictions is Oakley 53 - 46.

Any basis for this? I'm interested if thats an actual prediction.
mongoose
Posts: 3,500
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1/19/2010 5:23:46 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
It's great that Scott Brown gets to be the one to stop Health Care "Reform" but it will be a problem if they wait forever to seat him, pass the Senate Bill in the HoR with no changes, or use Reconciliation, all of which are crude tactics.
It is odd when one's capacity for compassion is measured not in what he is willing to do by his own time, effort, and property, but what he will force others to do with their own property instead.
mongoose
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1/19/2010 5:24:11 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 1/19/2010 5:21:52 PM, OreEle wrote:
Like what? The filibuster vote for republicans? As if the democrats haven't been totally unstopped so far.

besides, my predictions is Oakley 53 - 46.

Kidding me?
It is odd when one's capacity for compassion is measured not in what he is willing to do by his own time, effort, and property, but what he will force others to do with their own property instead.
Volkov
Posts: 9,765
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1/19/2010 5:24:56 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 1/19/2010 5:23:46 PM, mongoose wrote:
It's great that Scott Brown gets to be the one to stop Health Care "Reform" but it will be a problem if they wait forever to seat him, pass the Senate Bill in the HoR with no changes, or use Reconciliation, all of which are crude tactics.

Crude, but strategically brilliant.

The race is still early, but Brown has been leading, though lead has gone from 55 to 52% - any predictions, mongoose?
JBlake
Posts: 4,634
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1/19/2010 5:24:58 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 1/19/2010 5:21:52 PM, OreEle wrote:
Like what? The filibuster vote for republicans? As if the democrats haven't been totally unstopped so far.

besides, my predictions is Oakley 53 - 46.

Unstopped? Really? They have run into many many problems. Do you remember what the health care reform plan used to look like? It was a very different thing than it is now.

This election has huge ramifications.
Volkov
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1/19/2010 5:26:47 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 1/19/2010 5:24:56 PM, Volkov wrote:
The race is still early, but Brown has been leading, though lead has gone from 55 to 52% - any predictions, mongoose?

Now it down to 51, to 48 - I love it. Beginning to become a close race! I think Coakley will dominate Boston and area, and might win a slim victory.
Xer
Posts: 7,776
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1/19/2010 5:28:51 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
I'm giddy. A few political commentators, like George Stephanopoulos, the director of the UVA Center for Politics, and others are calling this the upset of the century- or lifetime. Purdy awesome. I expect Brown will win, but you never know in MA. We bleed blue here. I'll say Brown wins 50-48.

I feel special (not really) that my city is being mentioned nationally.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com...
mongoose
Posts: 3,500
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1/19/2010 5:29:51 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 1/19/2010 5:24:56 PM, Volkov wrote:
At 1/19/2010 5:23:46 PM, mongoose wrote:
It's great that Scott Brown gets to be the one to stop Health Care "Reform" but it will be a problem if they wait forever to seat him, pass the Senate Bill in the HoR with no changes, or use Reconciliation, all of which are crude tactics.

Crude, but strategically brilliant.

The race is still early, but Brown has been leading, though lead has gone from 55 to 52% - any predictions, mongoose?

I'm actually watching CNN and laughing at it. The gap widened (went from 1300 to 5000), but they said that Coakly was catching up (percentagewise yes, but that can't be truly relevant).
It is odd when one's capacity for compassion is measured not in what he is willing to do by his own time, effort, and property, but what he will force others to do with their own property instead.
mongoose
Posts: 3,500
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1/19/2010 5:31:55 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
10k lead.
It is odd when one's capacity for compassion is measured not in what he is willing to do by his own time, effort, and property, but what he will force others to do with their own property instead.
Volkov
Posts: 9,765
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1/19/2010 5:31:55 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 1/19/2010 5:29:51 PM, mongoose wrote:
I'm actually watching CNN and laughing at it. The gap widened (went from 1300 to 5000), but they said that Coakly was catching up (percentagewise yes, but that can't be truly relevant).

Well, percentage wise, it is important, because even if the margin by number has increased, the percentage takes into account every single vote, and the closer the percentage, the closer the race. I mean, you might think 100 v. 200 votes is close, but thats a 33% difference, you know?
Volkov
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1/19/2010 5:32:28 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 1/19/2010 5:31:55 PM, mongoose wrote:
10k lead.

Back up to 52-47, however Boston and area has barely come in.
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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1/19/2010 5:33:37 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 1/19/2010 5:26:47 PM, Volkov wrote:
At 1/19/2010 5:24:56 PM, Volkov wrote:
The race is still early, but Brown has been leading, though lead has gone from 55 to 52% - any predictions, mongoose?

Now it down to 51, to 48 - I love it. Beginning to become a close race! I think Coakley will dominate Boston and area, and might win a slim victory.

That is the basis for my voting. The early precincts are usually small towns the tend to favor republicans, while the large cities (which tend to favor democrats) will come it later.

I watched the exact same thing happened in Oregon for the 2008 Senate election. The republican made a strong start but lost in the end. We actually knew that he had lost while he still had the lead, simply because we knew which sections were likely to vote how and knew which sections had already had their votes counted.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Volkov
Posts: 9,765
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1/19/2010 5:33:54 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 1/19/2010 5:33:10 PM, Nags wrote:
Boston.com isn't loading. I'm getting kinda PO'd.

Really? It works fine for me, and its great too - it shows by-town results, instead of county.
mongoose
Posts: 3,500
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1/19/2010 5:35:56 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 1/19/2010 5:31:55 PM, Volkov wrote:
At 1/19/2010 5:29:51 PM, mongoose wrote:
I'm actually watching CNN and laughing at it. The gap widened (went from 1300 to 5000), but they said that Coakly was catching up (percentagewise yes, but that can't be truly relevant).

Well, percentage wise, it is important, because even if the margin by number has increased, the percentage takes into account every single vote, and the closer the percentage, the closer the race. I mean, you might think 100 v. 200 votes is close, but thats a 33% difference, you know?

If first Brown had 110 (55%) and Coakly had 90 (45%) (theoretically), Brown has 20 more votes and a 10% lead. If then Brown gains 900 votes, while Coakly gains 800, the percentage difference shrinks, but in no way is Coakly at an advantage compared to the earlier results.
It is odd when one's capacity for compassion is measured not in what he is willing to do by his own time, effort, and property, but what he will force others to do with their own property instead.
Xer
Posts: 7,776
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1/19/2010 5:37:29 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 1/19/2010 5:33:54 PM, Volkov wrote:
At 1/19/2010 5:33:10 PM, Nags wrote:
Boston.com isn't loading. I'm getting kinda PO'd.

Really? It works fine for me, and its great too - it shows by-town results, instead of county.

I just had Chrome, Firefox, Opera, and IE up trying to get on Boston.com. I kept refreshing the page for each one. Firefox just started to work after the fifth time. I don't think it has to do with the browser though -- too much traffic I assume. And yes, I love the format as well.
Volkov
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1/19/2010 5:40:09 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 1/19/2010 5:35:56 PM, mongoose wrote:
If first Brown had 110 (55%) and Coakly had 90 (45%) (theoretically), Brown has 20 more votes and a 10% lead. If then Brown gains 900 votes, while Coakly gains 800, the percentage difference shrinks, but in no way is Coakly at an advantage compared to the earlier results.

If the count increases, the percentage stays the same - that is why the percentage is the best indicator of advantage and position, rather than raw vote count. Its hard to explain, but a 20-vote lead in 200-count electorate is improbable to come over, while a 10,000 vote lead in a 200,000-count electorate isn't.
Ore_Ele
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1/19/2010 5:42:50 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
Really, what one should look at is not the current percentages, or number vote difference, but how many votes are estimated to still be on their way in.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Volkov
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1/19/2010 5:43:55 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 1/19/2010 5:42:50 PM, OreEle wrote:
Really, what one should look at is not the current percentages, or number vote difference, but how many votes are estimated to still be on their way in.

Good point. 21% has only come in (according to MSNBC, not Boston.com), and that its far from being able to call yet.
Xer
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1/19/2010 5:44:17 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 1/19/2010 5:42:50 PM, OreEle wrote:
Really, what one should look at is not the current percentages, or number vote difference, but how many votes are estimated to still be on their way in.

That doesn't really help if you don't know who those votes are voting for. :)
Volkov
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1/19/2010 5:44:46 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
I've also noticed that the large margins held by both Brown and Coakley have gotten smaller for them both. The race is starting to tighten up.
Ore_Ele
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1/19/2010 5:46:58 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
I can't wait for the end to see the breakdown of all the votes. I enjoyed digging through all the numbers for the 08 presidential election.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Xer
Posts: 7,776
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1/19/2010 5:48:35 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
I'm gunna be pissed if Scott Brown loses by a few thousand votes, because you know it's that d-bag Independent (libertarian) Joe Kennedy who will be stealing Brown's votes.