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The Update on Ukraine with Jifpop09: 2

Jifpop09
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4/10/2014 2:55:42 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
Alright, I know the hype on Ukraine has died down to about 5 people in the forums, but I feel this news is worthy of a new topic. As most of you know, *Pro Russian* forces have been taking towns and government buildings for about a week now. The attacks have been growing in force as well, and small mobs are forming all over the country side.

The real news is that the Interior Minister has issued a 48 hour ultimatum, that the unrest will be resolved within two days, or the military will be put down by force. Is it just me, or is this a terrible idea?

I'm not going to lie, I'm very suspicious about Russia's military exercises. Especially since they're running them in a place where they shouldn't be. Now, my suspicions tell me that the moment the military "puts down" the rebellion, Russia will mobilize its army and invade (they honestly are already mobilized).

Even though its an assumption, everyone must at least consider it as a alarming possibility. If a civil war were to break out, which at this point seems beyond a doubt, the government will ultimately crush the rebels.

The meager barricades they established can't possibility hold back a tank and 300,000 armed personnel. So, that makes me question Russia's intentions even further. Why is Russia warning Ukraine not to mobilize, when victory odds are highly in favor of the government?

My opinion, is that they're already racking up their excuse for an invasion. I can already see it in the Russian headlines.....

"Ukrainian Military pushes through militia defenses, killing 80 civilians . Russia to intervene to prevent further democide"

The alarming thing is the recent militia referendums that have been hosted in these places show that Russia could probably play the same card in Crimea though. I'm actually going to stop there as I'm getting kind of hypothetical.

No matter what Ukraine does, they are pretty much screwed. If they attack, then civilians will die. These people really have no chance against the army, and are not coordinated on any real level where they can do the slightest bit of damage.

Now if they decide to stay on the defensive, then more innocent bystanders or government officials will die. And another admitted hypothetical, is that we already have received perhaps a dozen reports on the situation from Russia. This leads me to believe that everyone might not be who they say they are in office, but who knows.

What I'm looking for in this thread, is actual comprehensive plans on how they should proceed. Here's mine, even though it might be a bit naive considering I have no military experience.....

Take the militia's down all out riot style. Drop tear gas from the sky, use bean bag rounds, but whatever you do, don't let a single irregular die. If even one citizen dies, then some sort of backlash will happen. Whether it be among the *Pro Russian's*, or Russia itself.

Anyways, please tell me your thoughts on the next steps to be taken, and just ask if you need additional sources.....

http://www.cnn.com...

A couple pictures of the militia defenses provided by google

http://media1.s-nbcnews.com...

http://media2.s-nbcnews.com...

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk...

http://www.sbs.com.au...

http://media2.s-nbcnews.com...

http://static.euronews.com...

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk...

http://im.ft-static.com...

http://scd.france24.com...

http://storage.forterietimes.ca...
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Jifpop09
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4/10/2014 6:40:42 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
It also turns out, that the Donetsk Republic which pathetically seceded a couple of days a go, is not a new idea. The organization has always existed, and seems to be the leading *pro russian* group in the conflict.
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Ore_Ele
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4/10/2014 7:40:27 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
Considering that the Ukraine just went through a revolution, how strong is their military? I'm sure that a sizable part of their former military was pro-Russian.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Jifpop09
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4/10/2014 7:45:24 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/10/2014 7:40:27 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
Considering that the Ukraine just went through a revolution, how strong is their military? I'm sure that a sizable part of their former military was pro-Russian.

Given that were true anyways, the military is bound by contract to fulfill their term. From my knowledge, not a single mutiny has taken place. And even if, lets say a 100,000 soldiers mutinied, they would still get steamrolled.

Revolutions reliant on mutiny have never succeeded, and never will.

http://www.nationmaster.com...
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ararmer1919
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4/10/2014 9:53:47 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
I agree with your idea. Tear gas, bean bags, the works. Pick off the ones on the streets out side the buildings with bean bag snipers , then flood the building with enough CS gas to choke even a US Marine battalion. As the scamper out of the building pick more off.

Another thing they can do. Blockade the building. Let no one in or out. Cut off all necessities to the building. No good, no water, no electricity, no alcohol, scramble all forms of communication, nothing. Then just sit back and wait. How long could they possibly last? And what ha could the do in there?
ararmer1919
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4/10/2014 9:56:09 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
Oh and have a constant string of sirens and bullhorns and other loud noises going off to deprive them of sleep and generally fu(k with them. Have BBQs out side and make sure they can see and smell it. Throw the occasional year gas inside every few hours. Just make them hate their lives.
Jifpop09
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4/10/2014 9:57:07 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/10/2014 9:53:47 AM, ararmer1919 wrote:
I agree with your idea. Tear gas, bean bags, the works. Pick off the ones on the streets out side the buildings with bean bag snipers , then flood the building with enough CS gas to choke even a US Marine battalion. As the scamper out of the building pick more off.

Another thing they can do. Blockade the building. Let no one in or out. Cut off all necessities to the building. No good, no water, no electricity, no alcohol, scramble all forms of communication, nothing. Then just sit back and wait. How long could they possibly last? And what ha could the do in there?

Can't tell if this is sarcasm, lol
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ararmer1919
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4/10/2014 10:08:08 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/10/2014 9:57:07 AM, Jifpop09 wrote:
At 4/10/2014 9:53:47 AM, ararmer1919 wrote:
I agree with your idea. Tear gas, bean bags, the works. Pick off the ones on the streets out side the buildings with bean bag snipers , then flood the building with enough CS gas to choke even a US Marine battalion. As the scamper out of the building pick more off.

Another thing they can do. Blockade the building. Let no one in or out. Cut off all necessities to the building. No good, no water, no electricity, no alcohol, scramble all forms of communication, nothing. Then just sit back and wait. How long could they possibly last? And what ha could the do in there?

Can't tell if this is sarcasm, lol

Oh not at all. If I was in charge over there I would just make those dissidents lives total and ungodly hell. Gloves off.
Jifpop09
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4/10/2014 10:10:41 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/10/2014 10:08:08 AM, ararmer1919 wrote:
At 4/10/2014 9:57:07 AM, Jifpop09 wrote:
At 4/10/2014 9:53:47 AM, ararmer1919 wrote:
I agree with your idea. Tear gas, bean bags, the works. Pick off the ones on the streets out side the buildings with bean bag snipers , then flood the building with enough CS gas to choke even a US Marine battalion. As the scamper out of the building pick more off.

Another thing they can do. Blockade the building. Let no one in or out. Cut off all necessities to the building. No good, no water, no electricity, no alcohol, scramble all forms of communication, nothing. Then just sit back and wait. How long could they possibly last? And what ha could the do in there?

Can't tell if this is sarcasm, lol

Oh not at all. If I was in charge over there I would just make those dissidents lives total and ungodly hell. Gloves off.

If I were in charge, I would just smoke them out with a couple of tear raids and call it a day.
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ararmer1919
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4/10/2014 10:20:36 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/10/2014 10:10:41 AM, Jifpop09 wrote:
At 4/10/2014 10:08:08 AM, ararmer1919 wrote:
At 4/10/2014 9:57:07 AM, Jifpop09 wrote:
At 4/10/2014 9:53:47 AM, ararmer1919 wrote:
I agree with your idea. Tear gas, bean bags, the works. Pick off the ones on the streets out side the buildings with bean bag snipers , then flood the building with enough CS gas to choke even a US Marine battalion. As the scamper out of the building pick more off.

Another thing they can do. Blockade the building. Let no one in or out. Cut off all necessities to the building. No good, no water, no electricity, no alcohol, scramble all forms of communication, nothing. Then just sit back and wait. How long could they possibly last? And what ha could the do in there?

Can't tell if this is sarcasm, lol

Oh not at all. If I was in charge over there I would just make those dissidents lives total and ungodly hell. Gloves off.

If I were in charge, I would just smoke them out with a couple of tear raids and call it a day.

Yeah that's differently an opption. It's just that that still leaves room for something to go wrong or a death to occur. What if during their stampede to get out someone falls and breaks their neck? Or when thier out in the streets fights break out between them and the police and people are hurt or kill as happens in most riots? Or what if they start shooting? We all know Russia doesn't give to sh!ts who fires first. If one of those rebels dies or is badly injured then that's all they need to push their agenda.
ararmer1919
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4/10/2014 10:21:37 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/10/2014 10:20:36 AM, ararmer1919 wrote:
At 4/10/2014 10:10:41 AM, Jifpop09 wrote:
At 4/10/2014 10:08:08 AM, ararmer1919 wrote:
At 4/10/2014 9:57:07 AM, Jifpop09 wrote:
At 4/10/2014 9:53:47 AM, ararmer1919 wrote:
I agree with your idea. Tear gas, bean bags, the works. Pick off the ones on the streets out side the buildings with bean bag snipers , then flood the building with enough CS gas to choke even a US Marine battalion. As the scamper out of the building pick more off.

Another thing they can do. Blockade the building. Let no one in or out. Cut off all necessities to the building. No good, no water, no electricity, no alcohol, scramble all forms of communication, nothing. Then just sit back and wait. How long could they possibly last? And what ha could the do in there?

Can't tell if this is sarcasm, lol

Oh not at all. If I was in charge over there I would just make those dissidents lives total and ungodly hell. Gloves off.

If I were in charge, I would just smoke them out with a couple of tear raids and call it a day.

Yeah that's differently an opption. It's just that that still leaves room for something to go wrong or a death to occur. What if during their stampede to get out someone falls and breaks their neck? Or when thier out in the streets fights break out between them and the police and people are hurt or kill as happens in most riots? Or what if they start shooting? We all know Russia doesn't give to sh!ts who fires first. If one of those rebels dies or is badly injured then that's all they need to push their agenda.

Sorry. " definitely" not differently
Jifpop09
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4/10/2014 10:21:41 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/10/2014 10:20:36 AM, ararmer1919 wrote:
At 4/10/2014 10:10:41 AM, Jifpop09 wrote:
At 4/10/2014 10:08:08 AM, ararmer1919 wrote:
At 4/10/2014 9:57:07 AM, Jifpop09 wrote:
At 4/10/2014 9:53:47 AM, ararmer1919 wrote:
I agree with your idea. Tear gas, bean bags, the works. Pick off the ones on the streets out side the buildings with bean bag snipers , then flood the building with enough CS gas to choke even a US Marine battalion. As the scamper out of the building pick more off.

Another thing they can do. Blockade the building. Let no one in or out. Cut off all necessities to the building. No good, no water, no electricity, no alcohol, scramble all forms of communication, nothing. Then just sit back and wait. How long could they possibly last? And what ha could the do in there?

Can't tell if this is sarcasm, lol

Oh not at all. If I was in charge over there I would just make those dissidents lives total and ungodly hell. Gloves off.

If I were in charge, I would just smoke them out with a couple of tear raids and call it a day.

Yeah that's differently an opption. It's just that that still leaves room for something to go wrong or a death to occur. What if during their stampede to get out someone falls and breaks their neck? Or when thier out in the streets fights break out between them and the police and people are hurt or kill as happens in most riots? Or what if they start shooting? We all know Russia doesn't give to sh!ts who fires first. If one of those rebels dies or is badly injured then that's all they need to push their agenda.

I definitely agree. Even one death will give them leverage, so the military is kind of screwed :(
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ararmer1919
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4/10/2014 10:22:18 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/10/2014 10:21:41 AM, Jifpop09 wrote:
At 4/10/2014 10:20:36 AM, ararmer1919 wrote:
At 4/10/2014 10:10:41 AM, Jifpop09 wrote:
At 4/10/2014 10:08:08 AM, ararmer1919 wrote:
At 4/10/2014 9:57:07 AM, Jifpop09 wrote:
At 4/10/2014 9:53:47 AM, ararmer1919 wrote:
I agree with your idea. Tear gas, bean bags, the works. Pick off the ones on the streets out side the buildings with bean bag snipers , then flood the building with enough CS gas to choke even a US Marine battalion. As the scamper out of the building pick more off.

Another thing they can do. Blockade the building. Let no one in or out. Cut off all necessities to the building. No good, no water, no electricity, no alcohol, scramble all forms of communication, nothing. Then just sit back and wait. How long could they possibly last? And what ha could the do in there?

Can't tell if this is sarcasm, lol

Oh not at all. If I was in charge over there I would just make those dissidents lives total and ungodly hell. Gloves off.

If I were in charge, I would just smoke them out with a couple of tear raids and call it a day.

Yeah that's differently an opption. It's just that that still leaves room for something to go wrong or a death to occur. What if during their stampede to get out someone falls and breaks their neck? Or when thier out in the streets fights break out between them and the police and people are hurt or kill as happens in most riots? Or what if they start shooting? We all know Russia doesn't give to sh!ts who fires first. If one of those rebels dies or is badly injured then that's all they need to push their agenda.

I definitely agree. Even one death will give them leverage, so the military is kind of screwed :(

So that's why they should starve them out.
Jifpop09
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4/10/2014 10:26:45 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/10/2014 10:22:18 AM, ararmer1919 wrote:
At 4/10/2014 10:21:41 AM, Jifpop09 wrote:
At 4/10/2014 10:20:36 AM, ararmer1919 wrote:
At 4/10/2014 10:10:41 AM, Jifpop09 wrote:
At 4/10/2014 10:08:08 AM, ararmer1919 wrote:
At 4/10/2014 9:57:07 AM, Jifpop09 wrote:
At 4/10/2014 9:53:47 AM, ararmer1919 wrote:
I agree with your idea. Tear gas, bean bags, the works. Pick off the ones on the streets out side the buildings with bean bag snipers , then flood the building with enough CS gas to choke even a US Marine battalion. As the scamper out of the building pick more off.

Another thing they can do. Blockade the building. Let no one in or out. Cut off all necessities to the building. No good, no water, no electricity, no alcohol, scramble all forms of communication, nothing. Then just sit back and wait. How long could they possibly last? And what ha could the do in there?

Can't tell if this is sarcasm, lol

Oh not at all. If I was in charge over there I would just make those dissidents lives total and ungodly hell. Gloves off.

If I were in charge, I would just smoke them out with a couple of tear raids and call it a day.

Yeah that's differently an opption. It's just that that still leaves room for something to go wrong or a death to occur. What if during their stampede to get out someone falls and breaks their neck? Or when thier out in the streets fights break out between them and the police and people are hurt or kill as happens in most riots? Or what if they start shooting? We all know Russia doesn't give to sh!ts who fires first. If one of those rebels dies or is badly injured then that's all they need to push their agenda.

I definitely agree. Even one death will give them leverage, so the military is kind of screwed :(

So that's why they should starve them out.

It seems a little inhumane. The citizens will likely go out fighting though.
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Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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4/10/2014 1:23:17 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/10/2014 10:08:08 AM, ararmer1919 wrote:
At 4/10/2014 9:57:07 AM, Jifpop09 wrote:
At 4/10/2014 9:53:47 AM, ararmer1919 wrote:
I agree with your idea. Tear gas, bean bags, the works. Pick off the ones on the streets out side the buildings with bean bag snipers , then flood the building with enough CS gas to choke even a US Marine battalion. As the scamper out of the building pick more off.

Another thing they can do. Blockade the building. Let no one in or out. Cut off all necessities to the building. No good, no water, no electricity, no alcohol, scramble all forms of communication, nothing. Then just sit back and wait. How long could they possibly last? And what ha could the do in there?

Can't tell if this is sarcasm, lol

Oh not at all. If I was in charge over there I would just make those dissidents lives total and ungodly hell. Gloves off.

One concern is that only brings more over to their side. Even the original Pro-Russian government wasn't being that much of a hard arse. So if the new Pro-European government is even more aggressive and violent, that will only help Russia in the long run. Like it or not, half the war is PR.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
wrichcirw
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4/10/2014 4:09:52 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
It's amazing how the female population "grows" here on DDO.

On this thread specifically I agree with ore_ele's perspective.
At 8/9/2013 9:41:24 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
If you are civil with me, I will be civil to you. If you decide to bring unreasonable animosity to bear in a reasonable discussion, then what would you expect other than to get flustered?
ararmer1919
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4/10/2014 4:14:12 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/10/2014 1:23:17 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 4/10/2014 10:08:08 AM, ararmer1919 wrote:
At 4/10/2014 9:57:07 AM, Jifpop09 wrote:
At 4/10/2014 9:53:47 AM, ararmer1919 wrote:
I agree with your idea. Tear gas, bean bags, the works. Pick off the ones on the streets out side the buildings with bean bag snipers , then flood the building with enough CS gas to choke even a US Marine battalion. As the scamper out of the building pick more off.

Another thing they can do. Blockade the building. Let no one in or out. Cut off all necessities to the building. No good, no water, no electricity, no alcohol, scramble all forms of communication, nothing. Then just sit back and wait. How long could they possibly last? And what ha could the do in there?

Can't tell if this is sarcasm, lol

Oh not at all. If I was in charge over there I would just make those dissidents lives total and ungodly hell. Gloves off.

One concern is that only brings more over to their side. Even the original Pro-Russian government wasn't being that much of a hard arse. So if the new Pro-European government is even more aggressive and violent, that will only help Russia in the long run. Like it or not, half the war is PR.

But at the same time this fledgling government can't afford to appear to be weak and unable to respond to dissidents and rebels.
wrichcirw
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4/11/2014 6:29:05 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
...now I agree with ararmer's perspective. Gee I'm conflicted, lol.

There's something interesting going on in Thailand as well that may be relevant...there's a de facto "peaceful" rebellion occurring in that country that is attempting to oust the sitting prime minister.

She has, instead of resorting to force, actually vacated government buildings and has let protesters occupy them. It remains to be seen if such a "non-violent" tactic by an organization that holds a monopoly on force will be effective (although IMHO there is some doubt that she actually controls the army):

http://www.abc.net.au...
At 8/9/2013 9:41:24 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
If you are civil with me, I will be civil to you. If you decide to bring unreasonable animosity to bear in a reasonable discussion, then what would you expect other than to get flustered?
Jifpop09
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4/11/2014 6:43:12 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/11/2014 6:29:05 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
...now I agree with ararmer's perspective. Gee I'm conflicted, lol.

There's something interesting going on in Thailand as well that may be relevant...there's a de facto "peaceful" rebellion occurring in that country that is attempting to oust the sitting prime minister.

She has, instead of resorting to force, actually vacated government buildings and has let protesters occupy them. It remains to be seen if such a "non-violent" tactic by an organization that holds a monopoly on force will be effective (although IMHO there is some doubt that she actually controls the army):

http://www.abc.net.au...

Wait, what I'm wondering though, is if the rebels occupation caused an hidden damage. Those rioters occupying the building, are certainly doing something to the psyche's of the citizens, as well as making the military/government look weak.

The question I'm wondering though, is why the army's not even mobilized anywhere near the building's. They seem to be camped outside Donetsk.

Anyways, while I agree with ararmer, the longer the military waits the more the rebels grow in strength. Somehow they appear to be getting arms (I wonder), so perhaps a quick strike may be in order? Provided they can do that with minimal casualties.
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wrichcirw
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4/11/2014 6:49:57 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/11/2014 6:43:12 AM, Jifpop09 wrote:
At 4/11/2014 6:29:05 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
...now I agree with ararmer's perspective. Gee I'm conflicted, lol.

There's something interesting going on in Thailand as well that may be relevant...there's a de facto "peaceful" rebellion occurring in that country that is attempting to oust the sitting prime minister.

She has, instead of resorting to force, actually vacated government buildings and has let protesters occupy them. It remains to be seen if such a "non-violent" tactic by an organization that holds a monopoly on force will be effective (although IMHO there is some doubt that she actually controls the army):

http://www.abc.net.au...

Wait, what I'm wondering though, is if the rebels occupation caused an hidden damage. Those rioters occupying the building, are certainly doing something to the psyche's of the citizens, as well as making the military/government look weak.

The question I'm wondering though, is why the army's not even mobilized anywhere near the building's. They seem to be camped outside Donetsk.

Anyways, while I agree with ararmer, the longer the military waits the more the rebels grow in strength. Somehow they appear to be getting arms (I wonder), so perhaps a quick strike may be in order? Provided they can do that with minimal casualties.

The idea is that the military is not the solution to every uprising. If it was, then China would be headed by the KMT...instead, millions upon millions of Chinese actually sided with the communists in the face of a superior KMT force.

The question (for me at least) then becomes, if the military is not the solution to this uprising, IS THERE a solution to this uprising? Another question would be "does power ultimately reside in the military"? In Thailand's case, it certainly seems so, and they've been judicious (if not reticent) in its application. In the Ukraine's case it may very well be true as well...but in the case of the Ukraine, the military must have a reasonable suspicion that any use of military force may be met with a Russian response. In China's case however, it was not true...a greater force usurped military domination and ousted the KMT.
At 8/9/2013 9:41:24 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
If you are civil with me, I will be civil to you. If you decide to bring unreasonable animosity to bear in a reasonable discussion, then what would you expect other than to get flustered?
wrichcirw
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4/11/2014 6:51:30 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
In China's case specifically, the harder the military fought, the more resistant the population became. It was as if the KMT itself was seen as an infection. Such is the power of a PR campaign.
At 8/9/2013 9:41:24 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
If you are civil with me, I will be civil to you. If you decide to bring unreasonable animosity to bear in a reasonable discussion, then what would you expect other than to get flustered?
Jifpop09
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4/11/2014 6:57:26 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/11/2014 6:49:57 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 4/11/2014 6:43:12 AM, Jifpop09 wrote:
At 4/11/2014 6:29:05 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
...now I agree with ararmer's perspective. Gee I'm conflicted, lol.

There's something interesting going on in Thailand as well that may be relevant...there's a de facto "peaceful" rebellion occurring in that country that is attempting to oust the sitting prime minister.

She has, instead of resorting to force, actually vacated government buildings and has let protesters occupy them. It remains to be seen if such a "non-violent" tactic by an organization that holds a monopoly on force will be effective (although IMHO there is some doubt that she actually controls the army):

http://www.abc.net.au...

Wait, what I'm wondering though, is if the rebels occupation caused an hidden damage. Those rioters occupying the building, are certainly doing something to the psyche's of the citizens, as well as making the military/government look weak.

The question I'm wondering though, is why the army's not even mobilized anywhere near the building's. They seem to be camped outside Donetsk.

Anyways, while I agree with ararmer, the longer the military waits the more the rebels grow in strength. Somehow they appear to be getting arms (I wonder), so perhaps a quick strike may be in order? Provided they can do that with minimal casualties.

The idea is that the military is not the solution to every uprising. If it was, then China would be headed by the KMT...instead, millions upon millions of Chinese actually sided with the communists in the face of a superior KMT force.

The question (for me at least) then becomes, if the military is not the solution to this uprising, IS THERE a solution to this uprising? Another question would be "does power ultimately reside in the military"? In Thailand's case, it certainly seems so, and they've been judicious (if not reticent) in its application. In the Ukraine's case it may very well be true as well...but in the case of the Ukraine, the military must have a reasonable suspicion that any use of military force may be met with a Russian response. In China's case however, it was not true...a greater force usurped military domination and ousted the KMT.

Morally and practically I agree with you. Military force usually digs you further into the rabbits hole, and especially so with Russia right outside the border.

In this case, solving the unrest without military force sounds best. The potential consequences of military force far outweigh the potential consequences of letting the rebels throw a fit for a couple of days.

In the KMT's case, they were actually destroyed by a third force. I believe they had an army of over 4 million non conscripted soldiers before Japan invaded. After Japan left, the army was a couple hundred thousand strong.

I don't know if that contributes to the discussion, but I could see the US being a third force in this conflict? I hope not though.
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wrichcirw
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4/11/2014 7:00:41 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/11/2014 6:57:26 AM, Jifpop09 wrote:
At 4/11/2014 6:49:57 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 4/11/2014 6:43:12 AM, Jifpop09 wrote:
At 4/11/2014 6:29:05 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
...now I agree with ararmer's perspective. Gee I'm conflicted, lol.

There's something interesting going on in Thailand as well that may be relevant...there's a de facto "peaceful" rebellion occurring in that country that is attempting to oust the sitting prime minister.

She has, instead of resorting to force, actually vacated government buildings and has let protesters occupy them. It remains to be seen if such a "non-violent" tactic by an organization that holds a monopoly on force will be effective (although IMHO there is some doubt that she actually controls the army):

http://www.abc.net.au...

Wait, what I'm wondering though, is if the rebels occupation caused an hidden damage. Those rioters occupying the building, are certainly doing something to the psyche's of the citizens, as well as making the military/government look weak.

The question I'm wondering though, is why the army's not even mobilized anywhere near the building's. They seem to be camped outside Donetsk.

Anyways, while I agree with ararmer, the longer the military waits the more the rebels grow in strength. Somehow they appear to be getting arms (I wonder), so perhaps a quick strike may be in order? Provided they can do that with minimal casualties.

The idea is that the military is not the solution to every uprising. If it was, then China would be headed by the KMT...instead, millions upon millions of Chinese actually sided with the communists in the face of a superior KMT force.

The question (for me at least) then becomes, if the military is not the solution to this uprising, IS THERE a solution to this uprising? Another question would be "does power ultimately reside in the military"? In Thailand's case, it certainly seems so, and they've been judicious (if not reticent) in its application. In the Ukraine's case it may very well be true as well...but in the case of the Ukraine, the military must have a reasonable suspicion that any use of military force may be met with a Russian response. In China's case however, it was not true...a greater force usurped military domination and ousted the KMT.

Morally and practically I agree with you. Military force usually digs you further into the rabbits hole, and especially so with Russia right outside the border.

In this case, solving the unrest without military force sounds best. The potential consequences of military force far outweigh the potential consequences of letting the rebels throw a fit for a couple of days.

In the KMT's case, they were actually destroyed by a third force. I believe they had an army of over 4 million non conscripted soldiers before Japan invaded. After Japan left, the army was a couple hundred thousand strong.

The KMT was known to have prioritized its internal struggle with the communists while ceding ground to Japan. This is what led to the popularity of the communists...even though they were severely out-classed militarily, they still prioritized fighting off the Japanese regardless of what the KMT was doing. The "street cred" the communists attained from the Sino-Japanese war is what led to the KMT's demise...that and a seemingly endless supply of communist guerrilla fighters that believed in the communists' cause.

I don't know if that contributes to the discussion, but I could see the US being a third force in this conflict? I hope not though.
At 8/9/2013 9:41:24 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
If you are civil with me, I will be civil to you. If you decide to bring unreasonable animosity to bear in a reasonable discussion, then what would you expect other than to get flustered?
wrichcirw
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4/11/2014 7:03:25 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
Anyway, IMHO this is why it's imperative to figure out if pro-Russian sentiment is real. If it is, then the Ukraine will lose no matter what it does. It does not have Western military support, so a war will end before it begins.
At 8/9/2013 9:41:24 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
If you are civil with me, I will be civil to you. If you decide to bring unreasonable animosity to bear in a reasonable discussion, then what would you expect other than to get flustered?
Jifpop09
Posts: 2,243
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4/11/2014 7:05:53 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/11/2014 7:00:41 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 4/11/2014 6:57:26 AM, Jifpop09 wrote:
At 4/11/2014 6:49:57 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 4/11/2014 6:43:12 AM, Jifpop09 wrote:
At 4/11/2014 6:29:05 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
...now I agree with ararmer's perspective. Gee I'm conflicted, lol.

There's something interesting going on in Thailand as well that may be relevant...there's a de facto "peaceful" rebellion occurring in that country that is attempting to oust the sitting prime minister.

She has, instead of resorting to force, actually vacated government buildings and has let protesters occupy them. It remains to be seen if such a "non-violent" tactic by an organization that holds a monopoly on force will be effective (although IMHO there is some doubt that she actually controls the army):

http://www.abc.net.au...

Wait, what I'm wondering though, is if the rebels occupation caused an hidden damage. Those rioters occupying the building, are certainly doing something to the psyche's of the citizens, as well as making the military/government look weak.

The question I'm wondering though, is why the army's not even mobilized anywhere near the building's. They seem to be camped outside Donetsk.

Anyways, while I agree with ararmer, the longer the military waits the more the rebels grow in strength. Somehow they appear to be getting arms (I wonder), so perhaps a quick strike may be in order? Provided they can do that with minimal casualties.

The idea is that the military is not the solution to every uprising. If it was, then China would be headed by the KMT...instead, millions upon millions of Chinese actually sided with the communists in the face of a superior KMT force.

The question (for me at least) then becomes, if the military is not the solution to this uprising, IS THERE a solution to this uprising? Another question would be "does power ultimately reside in the military"? In Thailand's case, it certainly seems so, and they've been judicious (if not reticent) in its application. In the Ukraine's case it may very well be true as well...but in the case of the Ukraine, the military must have a reasonable suspicion that any use of military force may be met with a Russian response. In China's case however, it was not true...a greater force usurped military domination and ousted the KMT.

Morally and practically I agree with you. Military force usually digs you further into the rabbits hole, and especially so with Russia right outside the border.

In this case, solving the unrest without military force sounds best. The potential consequences of military force far outweigh the potential consequences of letting the rebels throw a fit for a couple of days.

In the KMT's case, they were actually destroyed by a third force. I believe they had an army of over 4 million non conscripted soldiers before Japan invaded. After Japan left, the army was a couple hundred thousand strong.

The KMT was known to have prioritized its internal struggle with the communists while ceding ground to Japan. This is what led to the popularity of the communists...even though they were severely out-classed militarily, they still prioritized fighting off the Japanese regardless of what the KMT was doing. The "street cred" the communists attained from the Sino-Japanese war is what led to the KMT's demise...that and a seemingly endless supply of communist guerrilla fighters that believed in the communists' cause.

The Kuomintang still would of held on to China if the Sino-Japanese Wars never happened. Communist Party membership grew during world war 2, while the Kuomintang were utterly destroyed. But comparing pre-sino war numbers, Mao's 500,000 member army was simply no match for Chiang's 4,000,000 million veteran force, who had survived wars with Stalin, the Turks, and sent Mao in a full rout 3 times.

I simply see no evidence that Mao's party would of grew in time, before ultimately being once again defeated.

I don't know if that contributes to the discussion, but I could see the US being a third force in this conflict? I hope not though.
Leader of the DDO Revolution Party
Jifpop09
Posts: 2,243
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4/11/2014 7:12:09 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/11/2014 7:03:25 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
Anyway, IMHO this is why it's imperative to figure out if pro-Russian sentiment is real. If it is, then the Ukraine will lose no matter what it does. It does not have Western military support, so a war will end before it begins.

Pro Russian sentiment is most certainly real, but the extent of which is debatable. And whether it is a underlying influence for the dissidents.
Leader of the DDO Revolution Party
wrichcirw
Posts: 11,196
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4/11/2014 7:14:27 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/11/2014 7:05:53 AM, Jifpop09 wrote:
At 4/11/2014 7:00:41 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 4/11/2014 6:57:26 AM, Jifpop09 wrote:
At 4/11/2014 6:49:57 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 4/11/2014 6:43:12 AM, Jifpop09 wrote:
At 4/11/2014 6:29:05 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
...now I agree with ararmer's perspective. Gee I'm conflicted, lol.

There's something interesting going on in Thailand as well that may be relevant...there's a de facto "peaceful" rebellion occurring in that country that is attempting to oust the sitting prime minister.

She has, instead of resorting to force, actually vacated government buildings and has let protesters occupy them. It remains to be seen if such a "non-violent" tactic by an organization that holds a monopoly on force will be effective (although IMHO there is some doubt that she actually controls the army):

http://www.abc.net.au...

Wait, what I'm wondering though, is if the rebels occupation caused an hidden damage. Those rioters occupying the building, are certainly doing something to the psyche's of the citizens, as well as making the military/government look weak.

The question I'm wondering though, is why the army's not even mobilized anywhere near the building's. They seem to be camped outside Donetsk.

Anyways, while I agree with ararmer, the longer the military waits the more the rebels grow in strength. Somehow they appear to be getting arms (I wonder), so perhaps a quick strike may be in order? Provided they can do that with minimal casualties.

The idea is that the military is not the solution to every uprising. If it was, then China would be headed by the KMT...instead, millions upon millions of Chinese actually sided with the communists in the face of a superior KMT force.

The question (for me at least) then becomes, if the military is not the solution to this uprising, IS THERE a solution to this uprising? Another question would be "does power ultimately reside in the military"? In Thailand's case, it certainly seems so, and they've been judicious (if not reticent) in its application. In the Ukraine's case it may very well be true as well...but in the case of the Ukraine, the military must have a reasonable suspicion that any use of military force may be met with a Russian response. In China's case however, it was not true...a greater force usurped military domination and ousted the KMT.

Morally and practically I agree with you. Military force usually digs you further into the rabbits hole, and especially so with Russia right outside the border.

In this case, solving the unrest without military force sounds best. The potential consequences of military force far outweigh the potential consequences of letting the rebels throw a fit for a couple of days.

In the KMT's case, they were actually destroyed by a third force. I believe they had an army of over 4 million non conscripted soldiers before Japan invaded. After Japan left, the army was a couple hundred thousand strong.

The KMT was known to have prioritized its internal struggle with the communists while ceding ground to Japan. This is what led to the popularity of the communists...even though they were severely out-classed militarily, they still prioritized fighting off the Japanese regardless of what the KMT was doing. The "street cred" the communists attained from the Sino-Japanese war is what led to the KMT's demise...that and a seemingly endless supply of communist guerrilla fighters that believed in the communists' cause.

The Kuomintang still would of held on to China if the Sino-Japanese Wars never happened. Communist Party membership grew during world war 2, while the Kuomintang were utterly destroyed. But comparing pre-sino war numbers, Mao's 500,000 member army was simply no match for Chiang's 4,000,000 million veteran force, who had survived wars with Stalin, the Turks, and sent Mao in a full rout 3 times.

I simply see no evidence that Mao's party would of grew in time, before ultimately being once again defeated.

The idea is that regardless of the Japanese incursion, you must be able to gauge popular support. The KMT failed to do this, and IMHO even went against its own principles of forming a republic by forcibly quashing communist dissent. Had the KMT instead utilized force in the "correct" manner (fighting off the Japanese) then the KMT would have enjoyed the popularity that the CCP now currently enjoys (and despite whatever you hear in western media, the CCP does have a decent amount of popularity even today).

Any scenario that does not involve the Japanese would then beg the question as to why the Japanese invaded in the first place. The main reason is because China was already weak from foreign incursions. Japan was simply yet another incursion. Without Japan there, it's arguable that China would be facing a legacy similar to that of India, except that China would have ceased to exist...it would have been 5 or 6 "new territories" based upon the extraterritoriality treaties that were in place prior to anarchy and the Japanese invasion.

Apply this logic to the Ukraine, and you reach some conclusions:

1) The Ukraine is also weak vis a vis its neighbors
2) The Ukraine will more than likely become subdivided
At 8/9/2013 9:41:24 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
If you are civil with me, I will be civil to you. If you decide to bring unreasonable animosity to bear in a reasonable discussion, then what would you expect other than to get flustered?
wrichcirw
Posts: 11,196
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4/11/2014 7:18:53 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
I mean, you must understand that before Chiang Kai Shek backstabbed Mao, they were actually allies. Chiang created "Mao as a threat" in a similar vein as to how the US created Al Qaeda - unintentionally.
At 8/9/2013 9:41:24 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
If you are civil with me, I will be civil to you. If you decide to bring unreasonable animosity to bear in a reasonable discussion, then what would you expect other than to get flustered?
Jifpop09
Posts: 2,243
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4/11/2014 7:20:26 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/11/2014 7:14:27 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 4/11/2014 7:05:53 AM, Jifpop09 wrote:
At 4/11/2014 7:00:41 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 4/11/2014 6:57:26 AM, Jifpop09 wrote:
At 4/11/2014 6:49:57 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 4/11/2014 6:43:12 AM, Jifpop09 wrote:
At 4/11/2014 6:29:05 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
...now I agree with ararmer's perspective. Gee I'm conflicted, lol.

There's something interesting going on in Thailand as well that may be relevant...there's a de facto "peaceful" rebellion occurring in that country that is attempting to oust the sitting prime minister.

She has, instead of resorting to force, actually vacated government buildings and has let protesters occupy them. It remains to be seen if such a "non-violent" tactic by an organization that holds a monopoly on force will be effective (although IMHO there is some doubt that she actually controls the army):

http://www.abc.net.au...

Wait, what I'm wondering though, is if the rebels occupation caused an hidden damage. Those rioters occupying the building, are certainly doing something to the psyche's of the citizens, as well as making the military/government look weak.

The question I'm wondering though, is why the army's not even mobilized anywhere near the building's. They seem to be camped outside Donetsk.

Anyways, while I agree with ararmer, the longer the military waits the more the rebels grow in strength. Somehow they appear to be getting arms (I wonder), so perhaps a quick strike may be in order? Provided they can do that with minimal casualties.

The idea is that the military is not the solution to every uprising. If it was, then China would be headed by the KMT...instead, millions upon millions of Chinese actually sided with the communists in the face of a superior KMT force.

The question (for me at least) then becomes, if the military is not the solution to this uprising, IS THERE a solution to this uprising? Another question would be "does power ultimately reside in the military"? In Thailand's case, it certainly seems so, and they've been judicious (if not reticent) in its application. In the Ukraine's case it may very well be true as well...but in the case of the Ukraine, the military must have a reasonable suspicion that any use of military force may be met with a Russian response. In China's case however, it was not true...a greater force usurped military domination and ousted the KMT.

Morally and practically I agree with you. Military force usually digs you further into the rabbits hole, and especially so with Russia right outside the border.

In this case, solving the unrest without military force sounds best. The potential consequences of military force far outweigh the potential consequences of letting the rebels throw a fit for a couple of days.

In the KMT's case, they were actually destroyed by a third force. I believe they had an army of over 4 million non conscripted soldiers before Japan invaded. After Japan left, the army was a couple hundred thousand strong.

The KMT was known to have prioritized its internal struggle with the communists while ceding ground to Japan. This is what led to the popularity of the communists...even though they were severely out-classed militarily, they still prioritized fighting off the Japanese regardless of what the KMT was doing. The "street cred" the communists attained from the Sino-Japanese war is what led to the KMT's demise...that and a seemingly endless supply of communist guerrilla fighters that believed in the communists' cause.

The Kuomintang still would of held on to China if the Sino-Japanese Wars never happened. Communist Party membership grew during world war 2, while the Kuomintang were utterly destroyed. But comparing pre-sino war numbers, Mao's 500,000 member army was simply no match for Chiang's 4,000,000 million veteran force, who had survived wars with Stalin, the Turks, and sent Mao in a full rout 3 times.

I simply see no evidence that Mao's party would of grew in time, before ultimately being once again defeated.

The idea is that regardless of the Japanese incursion, you must be able to gauge popular support. The KMT failed to do this, and IMHO even went against its own principles of forming a republic by forcibly quashing communist dissent. Had the KMT instead utilized force in the "correct" manner (fighting off the Japanese) then the KMT would have enjoyed the popularity that the CCP now currently enjoys (and despite whatever you hear in western media, the CCP does have a decent amount of popularity even today).

Any scenario that does not involve the Japanese would then beg the question as to why the Japanese invaded in the first place. The main reason is because China was already weak from foreign incursions. Japan was simply yet another incursion. Without Japan there, it's arguable that China would be facing a legacy similar to that of India, except that China would have ceased to exist...it would have been 5 or 6 "new territories" based upon the extraterritoriality treaties that were in place prior to anarchy and the Japanese invasion.

My only rebuttal would be the cease fire declared between the Kuomintang and the Communists made during the invasion. None the less, you made your point. While the invasion by Japan probably still would of happened, the attack was only sweetened by the countries dissent.

Apply this logic to the Ukraine, and you reach some conclusions:

1) The Ukraine is also weak vis a vis its neighbors
2) The Ukraine will more than likely become subdivided
Leader of the DDO Revolution Party