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2014 midterms

thett3
Posts: 14,345
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4/23/2014 6:05:17 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
Who do you think will win the 2014 midterms?

I predict Republicans will pick up between 3 and 7 senate seats and keep their majority in the house, although there's plenty of time for things to change. What say you guys?
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: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
progressivedem22
Posts: 1,304
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4/23/2014 6:10:13 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
I think it'll be, for the most part, status quo. I've seen a number of polls spelling good news for the Democrats, with a net gain of about 3 seats, but I think at the end of the day it'll virtually even out since most people tend not to vote in midterms, anyway.

2016 is really the election I've got my eye on, to be honest, even though it's so many years removed. I think if there are going to be real changes to the makeup of either chamber, that's when they'll take place.
YYW
Posts: 36,287
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4/23/2014 6:10:47 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/23/2014 6:05:17 PM, thett3 wrote:
Who do you think will win the 2014 midterms?

I predict Republicans will pick up between 3 and 7 senate seats and keep their majority in the house, although there's plenty of time for things to change. What say you guys?

I think the GOP will pick up a seat in Louisiana and North Carolina.
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thett3
Posts: 14,345
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4/23/2014 6:11:10 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/23/2014 6:10:13 PM, progressivedem22 wrote:
I think it'll be, for the most part, status quo. I've seen a number of polls spelling good news for the Democrats, with a net gain of about 3 seats, but I think at the end of the day it'll virtually even out since most people tend not to vote in midterms, anyway.

You think democrats will net 3 seats? There's almost 0% chance of *that* happening. I'd say they're favorited to keep the senate though, slightly.

2016 is really the election I've got my eye on, to be honest, even though it's so many years removed. I think if there are going to be real changes to the makeup of either chamber, that's when they'll take place.
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
progressivedem22
Posts: 1,304
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4/23/2014 6:22:32 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/23/2014 6:11:10 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 4/23/2014 6:10:13 PM, progressivedem22 wrote:
I think it'll be, for the most part, status quo. I've seen a number of polls spelling good news for the Democrats, with a net gain of about 3 seats, but I think at the end of the day it'll virtually even out since most people tend not to vote in midterms, anyway.

You think democrats will net 3 seats? There's almost 0% chance of *that* happening. I'd say they're favorited to keep the senate though, slightly.

I actually don't think they will, but I've seen polling, even from Fox News, suggesting that that's the present state of polling. But I think it will even out by election time.

2016 is really the election I've got my eye on, to be honest, even though it's so many years removed. I think if there are going to be real changes to the makeup of either chamber, that's when they'll take place.
thett3
Posts: 14,345
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4/23/2014 6:24:20 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/23/2014 6:22:32 PM, progressivedem22 wrote:
At 4/23/2014 6:11:10 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 4/23/2014 6:10:13 PM, progressivedem22 wrote:
I think it'll be, for the most part, status quo. I've seen a number of polls spelling good news for the Democrats, with a net gain of about 3 seats, but I think at the end of the day it'll virtually even out since most people tend not to vote in midterms, anyway.

You think democrats will net 3 seats? There's almost 0% chance of *that* happening. I'd say they're favorited to keep the senate though, slightly.

I actually don't think they will, but I've seen polling, even from Fox News, suggesting that that's the present state of polling. But I think it will even out by election time.

Oh, are you talking about House seats? I could see democrats netting a few of those. But it's almost certain that the GOP will pick up a few senate seats in November.


2016 is really the election I've got my eye on, to be honest, even though it's so many years removed. I think if there are going to be real changes to the makeup of either chamber, that's when they'll take place.
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
progressivedem22
Posts: 1,304
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4/23/2014 6:25:44 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/23/2014 6:24:20 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 4/23/2014 6:22:32 PM, progressivedem22 wrote:
At 4/23/2014 6:11:10 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 4/23/2014 6:10:13 PM, progressivedem22 wrote:
I think it'll be, for the most part, status quo. I've seen a number of polls spelling good news for the Democrats, with a net gain of about 3 seats, but I think at the end of the day it'll virtually even out since most people tend not to vote in midterms, anyway.

You think democrats will net 3 seats? There's almost 0% chance of *that* happening. I'd say they're favorited to keep the senate though, slightly.

I actually don't think they will, but I've seen polling, even from Fox News, suggesting that that's the present state of polling. But I think it will even out by election time.

Oh, are you talking about House seats? I could see democrats netting a few of those. But it's almost certain that the GOP will pick up a few senate seats in November.


2016 is really the election I've got my eye on, to be honest, even though it's so many years removed. I think if there are going to be real changes to the makeup of either chamber, that's when they'll take place.

I think it was House seats, yeah, but I'm unsure about Senate seats, though there are a number of Democrats from red states -- Begich from Alaska, for instance -- that could definitely lose their seats. I don't think the GOP will reach the 6 they need for a a majority, though.
thett3
Posts: 14,345
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4/23/2014 6:26:46 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/23/2014 6:25:44 PM, progressivedem22 wrote:
At 4/23/2014 6:24:20 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 4/23/2014 6:22:32 PM, progressivedem22 wrote:
At 4/23/2014 6:11:10 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 4/23/2014 6:10:13 PM, progressivedem22 wrote:
I think it'll be, for the most part, status quo. I've seen a number of polls spelling good news for the Democrats, with a net gain of about 3 seats, but I think at the end of the day it'll virtually even out since most people tend not to vote in midterms, anyway.

You think democrats will net 3 seats? There's almost 0% chance of *that* happening. I'd say they're favorited to keep the senate though, slightly.

I actually don't think they will, but I've seen polling, even from Fox News, suggesting that that's the present state of polling. But I think it will even out by election time.

Oh, are you talking about House seats? I could see democrats netting a few of those. But it's almost certain that the GOP will pick up a few senate seats in November.


2016 is really the election I've got my eye on, to be honest, even though it's so many years removed. I think if there are going to be real changes to the makeup of either chamber, that's when they'll take place.

I think it was House seats, yeah, but I'm unsure about Senate seats, though there are a number of Democrats from red states -- Begich from Alaska, for instance -- that could definitely lose their seats. I don't think the GOP will reach the 6 they need for a a majority, though.

Yeah, it's definitely possible given the political climate and where the senate races are being fought, but given the GOP's tendency to self destruct winnable races, I wouldn't bet on it either.
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
Kanti
Posts: 115
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4/23/2014 6:56:15 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/23/2014 6:39:30 PM, monty1 wrote:
Big game changer is going to be Obamacare and it's looking really good right now!

Are you still acting like you know about congressional politics?
Contra
Posts: 3,941
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4/23/2014 9:32:53 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/23/2014 6:26:46 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 4/23/2014 6:25:44 PM, progressivedem22 wrote:
At 4/23/2014 6:24:20 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 4/23/2014 6:22:32 PM, progressivedem22 wrote:
At 4/23/2014 6:11:10 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 4/23/2014 6:10:13 PM, progressivedem22 wrote:
I think it'll be, for the most part, status quo. I've seen a number of polls spelling good news for the Democrats, with a net gain of about 3 seats, but I think at the end of the day it'll virtually even out since most people tend not to vote in midterms, anyway.

You think democrats will net 3 seats? There's almost 0% chance of *that* happening. I'd say they're favorited to keep the senate though, slightly.

I actually don't think they will, but I've seen polling, even from Fox News, suggesting that that's the present state of polling. But I think it will even out by election time.

Oh, are you talking about House seats? I could see democrats netting a few of those. But it's almost certain that the GOP will pick up a few senate seats in November.


2016 is really the election I've got my eye on, to be honest, even though it's so many years removed. I think if there are going to be real changes to the makeup of either chamber, that's when they'll take place.

I think it was House seats, yeah, but I'm unsure about Senate seats, though there are a number of Democrats from red states -- Begich from Alaska, for instance -- that could definitely lose their seats. I don't think the GOP will reach the 6 they need for a a majority, though.

Yeah, it's definitely possible given the political climate and where the senate races are being fought, but given the GOP's tendency to self destruct winnable races, I wouldn't bet on it either.

Very accurate point thett.

I'd have to agree with the previous posts on here " I assume that the House dynamics will not change significantly. A few representatives are retiring, and that may slightly shuffle up the power struggle.

The Senate will probably inch closer to the Republicans, but not by that much.

I assume that the Republicans will overall have a better year because (1) the incumbent is a Democrat who is currently not that popular, (2) mid-term voters tend to be older and more conservative.

However, I think that Obamacare will become more popular by the end of the year, because of (1) higher enrollment numbers and (2) the figures showing that people generally don't want Obamacare to be repealed, but want it to be "fixed" instead.
"The solution [for Republicans] is to admit that Bush was a bad president, stop this racist homophobic stuff, stop trying to give most of the tax cuts to the rich, propose a real alternative to Obamacare that actually works, and propose smart free market solutions to our economic problems." - Distraff

"Americans are better off in a dynamic, free-enterprise-based economy that fosters economic growth, opportunity and upward mobility." - Paul Ryan
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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4/23/2014 9:53:05 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
RCP currently predicts that the GOP will pick up 4 or 5 in the Senate (giving them 49 or 50), and another 4 or so seats in the house. However, as we get closer and a ton more advertising is done, I expect that the be shifting towards the dems. Not sure if it is enough to balance out, but every month that the economy gets better is another notch for the dems, especially after Obamacare started and the world has not ended.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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4/23/2014 10:00:48 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
On 3/27, Obama had a disapproval spread of 11.4, it is now only 6.9 (not great, of course, but it is moving in the direction that Dems will like). The disapproval spread of Obama care at that same time was 13.5 and it is down to 11.4 (down from the recent peak of 19.0 in December). Direction of the country is not so much changed (from -31.8 to -30.8), though it is also down from its recent peak of -57.5 in October. The generic ballot had Reps up 1.5 points just back in February, now it is Dems by 1.6.

So the numbers do not look too good for the dems, but they are all currently going in their favor.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
lannan13
Posts: 23,063
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4/24/2014 7:49:07 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
I'm pretty sure that they'll win the House for sure, but pick up a slight majority in the Senate.
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YYW
Posts: 36,287
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4/24/2014 10:00:59 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/23/2014 9:53:05 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
RCP currently predicts that the GOP will pick up 4 or 5 in the Senate (giving them 49 or 50), and another 4 or so seats in the house. However, as we get closer and a ton more advertising is done, I expect that the be shifting towards the dems.

Why? In what states?

Not sure if it is enough to balance out, but every month that the economy gets better is another notch for the dems, especially after Obamacare started and the world has not ended.
Tsar of DDO
thett3
Posts: 14,345
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4/24/2014 10:33:13 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/24/2014 10:00:59 AM, YYW wrote:
At 4/23/2014 9:53:05 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
RCP currently predicts that the GOP will pick up 4 or 5 in the Senate (giving them 49 or 50), and another 4 or so seats in the house. However, as we get closer and a ton more advertising is done, I expect that the be shifting towards the dems.

Why? In what states?

The GOP is almost certain to win seats in Montana, West Virginia, and South Dakota. From there it only takes 1 or 2 wins of the other competitive races like Arkansas, North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado, Louisiana, Alaska, Michigan and a few others to get to the 4 or 5 number.

Not sure if it is enough to balance out, but every month that the economy gets better is another notch for the dems, especially after Obamacare started and the world has not ended.
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
YYW
Posts: 36,287
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4/24/2014 11:29:05 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/24/2014 10:33:13 AM, thett3 wrote:
At 4/24/2014 10:00:59 AM, YYW wrote:
At 4/23/2014 9:53:05 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
RCP currently predicts that the GOP will pick up 4 or 5 in the Senate (giving them 49 or 50), and another 4 or so seats in the house. However, as we get closer and a ton more advertising is done, I expect that the be shifting towards the dems.

Why? In what states?

The GOP is almost certain to win seats in Montana, West Virginia, and South Dakota. From there it only takes 1 or 2 wins of the other competitive races like Arkansas, North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado, Louisiana, Alaska, Michigan and a few others to get to the 4 or 5 number.

Yeah, I was wondering why Ore_Ele thinks that once the advertising is done, that it's going to swing back for the DNC.

Not sure if it is enough to balance out, but every month that the economy gets better is another notch for the dems, especially after Obamacare started and the world has not ended.
Tsar of DDO
monty1
Posts: 1,084
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4/24/2014 3:11:42 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
Obamacare is the big wild card on this US sideshow of an election. If it looks like the people are going to take that into consideration and vote Dem, as they surely will by the looks of things, the mechanisms are already set up for the right to cheat and the SCOTUS is going to be there for them again.

Yousa needs to take a lesson from the Crimea on how to hold a fair election or referendum.