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Ukraine

YYW
Posts: 36,289
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5/31/2014 10:07:54 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
What do you think so far?

Do you think the situation is stable, and if so, why?

What do you think Putin really wants and why?

Evaluate the Obama Administration's approach to the conflict.
Tsar of DDO
nicraM
Posts: 21
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6/1/2014 12:00:14 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
I was talking to my Father about this. We are both Polish immigrants and have seen first hand what Russia and their communist (and don't fool yourselves they will try to bring it back) ways can do. This is for all intents and purposes an occupation. And, I dearly feel that Putin is the next Hitler.

Funny thing is, two days later Prince Charles says the same thing on BBC.
YYW
Posts: 36,289
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6/1/2014 5:44:19 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 6/1/2014 12:00:14 PM, nicraM wrote:
I was talking to my Father about this. We are both Polish immigrants and have seen first hand what Russia and their communist (and don't fool yourselves they will try to bring it back) ways can do. This is for all intents and purposes an occupation. And, I dearly feel that Putin is the next Hitler.

Funny thing is, two days later Prince Charles says the same thing on BBC.

I think the comparison is valid, for quite a few reasons -with the only exception being that Putin is more shrewd and a more skilled statesman than Hitler ever could have been.
Tsar of DDO
nicraM
Posts: 21
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6/1/2014 5:52:05 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 6/1/2014 5:44:19 PM, YYW wrote:
At 6/1/2014 12:00:14 PM, nicraM wrote:
I was talking to my Father about this. We are both Polish immigrants and have seen first hand what Russia and their communist (and don't fool yourselves they will try to bring it back) ways can do. This is for all intents and purposes an occupation. And, I dearly feel that Putin is the next Hitler.

Funny thing is, two days later Prince Charles says the same thing on BBC.

I think the comparison is valid, for quite a few reasons -with the only exception being that Putin is more shrewd and a more skilled statesman than Hitler ever could have been.

I agree, coupled with the fact we live in a different age of war. This next 5 year span will be tumultuously interesting, if nothing else.
YYW
Posts: 36,289
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6/1/2014 5:57:37 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 6/1/2014 5:52:05 PM, nicraM wrote:
At 6/1/2014 5:44:19 PM, YYW wrote:
At 6/1/2014 12:00:14 PM, nicraM wrote:
I was talking to my Father about this. We are both Polish immigrants and have seen first hand what Russia and their communist (and don't fool yourselves they will try to bring it back) ways can do. This is for all intents and purposes an occupation. And, I dearly feel that Putin is the next Hitler.

Funny thing is, two days later Prince Charles says the same thing on BBC.

I think the comparison is valid, for quite a few reasons -with the only exception being that Putin is more shrewd and a more skilled statesman than Hitler ever could have been.

I agree, coupled with the fact we live in a different age of war. This next 5 year span will be tumultuously interesting, if nothing else.

I would hope that Crimea is the last of it, but I don't think that it is.
Tsar of DDO
nicraM
Posts: 21
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6/1/2014 6:05:23 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 6/1/2014 5:57:37 PM, YYW wrote:
At 6/1/2014 5:52:05 PM, nicraM wrote:
At 6/1/2014 5:44:19 PM, YYW wrote:
At 6/1/2014 12:00:14 PM, nicraM wrote:
I was talking to my Father about this. We are both Polish immigrants and have seen first hand what Russia and their communist (and don't fool yourselves they will try to bring it back) ways can do. This is for all intents and purposes an occupation. And, I dearly feel that Putin is the next Hitler.

Funny thing is, two days later Prince Charles says the same thing on BBC.

I think the comparison is valid, for quite a few reasons -with the only exception being that Putin is more shrewd and a more skilled statesman than Hitler ever could have been.

I agree, coupled with the fact we live in a different age of war. This next 5 year span will be tumultuously interesting, if nothing else.

I would hope that Crimea is the last of it, but I don't think that it is.

It's probably not. Russia is securing the Ukraine for the breadbasket.

That is the whole reason they are over there. If Ukraine joins the EU, Russia's food (wheat) prices triple in 3 -5 financial quarters. Putin knows that, so he took action.

Part of me understands why he is doing it. But, it doesn't make it less scary knowing we are basically pawns in a geopolitical struggle.

Poland, my home country is probably next. In these situations, especially with Ukraine's direct proximity to Poland, if he makes a move that will be it.

Makes the concept of war real when it is your people that are dying. Sad, that it takes those lengths to be honest.
wrichcirw
Posts: 11,196
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6/1/2014 7:37:55 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 6/1/2014 6:05:23 PM, nicraM wrote:

Poland, my home country is probably next. In these situations, especially with Ukraine's direct proximity to Poland, if he makes a move that will be it.

I don't think this can happen. Poland is part of NATO. Ukraine was not.
At 8/9/2013 9:41:24 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
If you are civil with me, I will be civil to you. If you decide to bring unreasonable animosity to bear in a reasonable discussion, then what would you expect other than to get flustered?
nicraM
Posts: 21
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6/1/2014 7:42:02 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 6/1/2014 7:37:55 PM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 6/1/2014 6:05:23 PM, nicraM wrote:

Poland, my home country is probably next. In these situations, especially with Ukraine's direct proximity to Poland, if he makes a move that will be it.

I don't think this can happen. Poland is part of NATO. Ukraine was not.

We will see how far Putin goes with the Ukraine. If he attempts to take it all, do not put it past him to take Poland. Russia has a love for trying to take us over throughout history. Let's hope the times have changed enough for that not to occur.
wrichcirw
Posts: 11,196
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6/1/2014 7:47:12 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 6/1/2014 7:42:02 PM, nicraM wrote:
At 6/1/2014 7:37:55 PM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 6/1/2014 6:05:23 PM, nicraM wrote:

Poland, my home country is probably next. In these situations, especially with Ukraine's direct proximity to Poland, if he makes a move that will be it.

I don't think this can happen. Poland is part of NATO. Ukraine was not.

We will see how far Putin goes with the Ukraine. If he attempts to take it all, do not put it past him to take Poland. Russia has a love for trying to take us over throughout history. Let's hope the times have changed enough for that not to occur.

The Ukraine has no military backing. Poland has the military backing of NATO and thus the US. In the end, that is what matters. Russia would not dare nuclear war over Poland, just like we won't dare nuclear war over Ukraine.

IMHO what's happening in the Ukraine is the Russian answer to to the West annexing USSR satellites into NATO...Russia is now attempting to recreate its own bloc. Both are imperialistic in functionality if not in name. Both are resultant from the power vacuum left from the collapse of the USSR.

What should be more surprising is that this Ukrainian mess did not occur earlier. I suppose this is the result of Russia's economic resurgence (all thanks to Bush II).
At 8/9/2013 9:41:24 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
If you are civil with me, I will be civil to you. If you decide to bring unreasonable animosity to bear in a reasonable discussion, then what would you expect other than to get flustered?
nicraM
Posts: 21
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6/1/2014 7:56:10 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 6/1/2014 7:47:12 PM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 6/1/2014 7:42:02 PM, nicraM wrote:
At 6/1/2014 7:37:55 PM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 6/1/2014 6:05:23 PM, nicraM wrote:

Poland, my home country is probably next. In these situations, especially with Ukraine's direct proximity to Poland, if he makes a move that will be it.

I don't think this can happen. Poland is part of NATO. Ukraine was not.

We will see how far Putin goes with the Ukraine. If he attempts to take it all, do not put it past him to take Poland. Russia has a love for trying to take us over throughout history. Let's hope the times have changed enough for that not to occur.

The Ukraine has no military backing. Poland has the military backing of NATO and thus the US. In the end, that is what matters. Russia would not dare nuclear war over Poland, just like we won't dare nuclear war over Ukraine.

IMHO what's happening in the Ukraine is the Russian answer to to the West annexing USSR satellites into NATO...Russia is now attempting to recreate its own bloc. Both are imperialistic in functionality if not in name. Both are resultant from the power vacuum left from the collapse of the USSR.

What should be more surprising is that this Ukrainian mess did not occur earlier. I suppose this is the result of Russia's economic resurgence (all thanks to Bush II).

I knew nothing of the satellites. I figured it was over the breadbasket that the Ukraine holds. But yeah, what you say makes sense. The problem is the U.S. is tapped. We have been fighting wars for over a decade now and Russia knows.

It is a lose - lose, that is obvious but don't underestimate powerful Slav. We can be ruthless when given a stick.
wrichcirw
Posts: 11,196
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6/1/2014 8:06:58 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 6/1/2014 7:56:10 PM, nicraM wrote:

I knew nothing of the satellites. I figured it was over the breadbasket that the Ukraine holds. But yeah, what you say makes sense. The problem is the U.S. is tapped. We have been fighting wars for over a decade now and Russia knows.

Agree, although even if we weren't, I don't think we'd risk a direct confrontation with Russia over a country that we didn't have a direct military obligation to protect.

It is a lose - lose, that is obvious but don't underestimate powerful Slav. We can be ruthless when given a stick.

You're talking about igniting wars resembling Korea and Vietnam, where one superpower fights against a "local" force armed by the other superpower. In such a case, I fully agree it's a lose/lose. It took 30 years for Korea to recover. Vietnam is still recovering. I would hope for the sake of central Europe that pragmatism would overcome any emotion stemming from nationalism.

I don't doubt that if such a conflict occurred in the region, it would be bloody, messy, and prolonged.
At 8/9/2013 9:41:24 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
If you are civil with me, I will be civil to you. If you decide to bring unreasonable animosity to bear in a reasonable discussion, then what would you expect other than to get flustered?
Mr_Soundboard
Posts: 62
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6/2/2014 6:27:32 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
If Putin sends Russian forces into Ukraine proper and proceeds to demolish their capital city and plant himself as invading leader, then yes the comparison is valid but right now, it is not. Putin backed a part of the Ukraine, and I use the term "part" rather loosely, which wanted independence via a parliamentary process, with the people of Crimea calling out for their voices to be heard. It was the then Ukrainian government and the Western backers which opposed the parliamentary and democratic resolution of the Crimea.

And surely, if we are comparing the leader of an invading force to Hitler then Blair, Bush, Brown, Cameron and Obama must all be Hitlers?
"Conscience is universal, the ability to adhere to that moral thought is not"
suttichart.denpruektham
Posts: 1,115
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6/2/2014 10:07:55 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 6/1/2014 5:52:05 PM, nicraM wrote:
At 6/1/2014 5:44:19 PM, YYW wrote:
At 6/1/2014 12:00:14 PM, nicraM wrote:
I was talking to my Father about this. We are both Polish immigrants and have seen first hand what Russia and their communist (and don't fool yourselves they will try to bring it back) ways can do. This is for all intents and purposes an occupation. And, I dearly feel that Putin is the next Hitler.

Funny thing is, two days later Prince Charles says the same thing on BBC.

I think the comparison is valid, for quite a few reasons -with the only exception being that Putin is more shrewd and a more skilled statesman than Hitler ever could have been.

I agree, coupled with the fact we live in a different age of war. This next 5 year span will be tumultuously interesting, if nothing else.

hmnn in a sense that he tried to annex all the land lost to his nation from the last war, yes his approach is very similar to Hitler (Ukraine is probably like what Sudatenland or Austria is to Germany).

Depend on how mush he had learned from the WWII and the Cold War, the "invasion of Poland" might happened at some point. However, I don't think Poland would be target next time, she was diplomatically, militarily, and ideologically too fortified. That's unless we're talking about 12-15 years timespan, or there is a very drastic change in Poland situation at the moment.

Otherwise, I think the military occupation of Kiev might do the the trick of provoking military action from the west. That's they still present themselves as an indigenous pro-Russian insurgent fighters, and not an actual Russian military.
wrichcirw
Posts: 11,196
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6/3/2014 2:26:00 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 6/2/2014 10:07:55 AM, suttichart.denpruektham wrote:
At 6/1/2014 5:52:05 PM, nicraM wrote:
At 6/1/2014 5:44:19 PM, YYW wrote:
At 6/1/2014 12:00:14 PM, nicraM wrote:
I was talking to my Father about this. We are both Polish immigrants and have seen first hand what Russia and their communist (and don't fool yourselves they will try to bring it back) ways can do. This is for all intents and purposes an occupation. And, I dearly feel that Putin is the next Hitler.

Funny thing is, two days later Prince Charles says the same thing on BBC.

I think the comparison is valid, for quite a few reasons -with the only exception being that Putin is more shrewd and a more skilled statesman than Hitler ever could have been.

I agree, coupled with the fact we live in a different age of war. This next 5 year span will be tumultuously interesting, if nothing else.

hmnn in a sense that he tried to annex all the land lost to his nation from the last war, yes his approach is very similar to Hitler (Ukraine is probably like what Sudatenland or Austria is to Germany).

Depend on how mush he had learned from the WWII and the Cold War, the "invasion of Poland" might happened at some point. However, I don't think Poland would be target next time, she was diplomatically, militarily, and ideologically too fortified. That's unless we're talking about 12-15 years timespan, or there is a very drastic change in Poland situation at the moment.

Otherwise, I think the military occupation of Kiev might do the the trick of provoking military action from the west. That's they still present themselves as an indigenous pro-Russian insurgent fighters, and not an actual Russian military.

You are advocating nuclear war here, especially if such an occupation results in what occurred in Crimea, i.e. Russian annexation.
At 8/9/2013 9:41:24 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
If you are civil with me, I will be civil to you. If you decide to bring unreasonable animosity to bear in a reasonable discussion, then what would you expect other than to get flustered?
suttichart.denpruektham
Posts: 1,115
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6/3/2014 9:33:35 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
Otherwise, I think the military occupation of Kiev might do the the trick of provoking military action from the west. That's they still present themselves as an indigenous pro-Russian insurgent fighters, and not an actual Russian military.

You are advocating nuclear war here, especially if such an occupation results in what occurred in Crimea, i.e. Russian annexation.

I wouldn't think so, if the said party has not openly identify themselves as an Official Russian forces. The NATO might just bomb them apart like in Kosovo and the Russian hasn't lift a finger to protect their allied.

Instead, I am Putin, I would have openly support and supply the rebel with weapon (especially air defence system), volunteer mercenary etc. I would happy to wage a proxy war over Ukriane which will most likely result in a division of the country - which I would be very happy with that, far more than a nuclear apocalypse.

I think the most extreme scenario is that, we will see a "Korean War" over Ukraine - military involvement may be intensive but is fought in limited front and no nuke involved.
wrichcirw
Posts: 11,196
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6/3/2014 9:43:54 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 6/3/2014 9:33:35 AM, suttichart.denpruektham wrote:
Otherwise, I think the military occupation of Kiev might do the the trick of provoking military action from the west. That's they still present themselves as an indigenous pro-Russian insurgent fighters, and not an actual Russian military.

You are advocating nuclear war here, especially if such an occupation results in what occurred in Crimea, i.e. Russian annexation.

I wouldn't think so, if the said party has not openly identify themselves as an Official Russian forces. The NATO might just bomb them apart like in Kosovo and the Russian hasn't lift a finger to protect their allied.

Instead, I am Putin, I would have openly support and supply the rebel with weapon (especially air defence system), volunteer mercenary etc. I would happy to wage a proxy war over Ukriane which will most likely result in a division of the country - which I would be very happy with that, far more than a nuclear apocalypse.

I think the most extreme scenario is that, we will see a "Korean War" over Ukraine - military involvement may be intensive but is fought in limited front and no nuke involved.

I would just point to the underlined. If Russia did that, and the West decided to directly intervene, that would result in nuclear war. Russia would then claim that an attack on Ukraine is an attack on Russia...just like how NATO would claim that an attack on Poland is an attack on all of western Europe and the US.
At 8/9/2013 9:41:24 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
If you are civil with me, I will be civil to you. If you decide to bring unreasonable animosity to bear in a reasonable discussion, then what would you expect other than to get flustered?
suttichart.denpruektham
Posts: 1,115
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6/5/2014 1:50:53 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 6/3/2014 9:43:54 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 6/3/2014 9:33:35 AM, suttichart.denpruektham wrote:
Otherwise, I think the military occupation of Kiev might do the the trick of provoking military action from the west. That's they still present themselves as an indigenous pro-Russian insurgent fighters, and not an actual Russian military.

You are advocating nuclear war here, especially if such an occupation results in what occurred in Crimea, i.e. Russian annexation.

I wouldn't think so, if the said party has not openly identify themselves as an Official Russian forces. The NATO might just bomb them apart like in Kosovo and the Russian hasn't lift a finger to protect their allied.

Instead, I am Putin, I would have openly support and supply the rebel with weapon (especially air defence system), volunteer mercenary etc. I would happy to wage a proxy war over Ukriane which will most likely result in a division of the country - which I would be very happy with that, far more than a nuclear apocalypse.

I think the most extreme scenario is that, we will see a "Korean War" over Ukraine - military involvement may be intensive but is fought in limited front and no nuke involved.

I would just point to the underlined. If Russia did that, and the West decided to directly intervene, that would result in nuclear war. Russia would then claim that an attack on Ukraine is an attack on Russia...just like how NATO would claim that an attack on Poland is an attack on all of western Europe and the US.
"If"

And I don't think Putin will ever do that if NATO getting serious about their involvement in Ukraine. If he keep them as a "pro-Russian Militia", he can practically fight a full scale conventional war with as many assets as he would like to spend through military aid, "Volunteer" freedom fighter etc.

Only if the NATO had break his thresholds, then Putin will resort to Nuclear threat. And in this case, those thresholds are likely the fallen of eastern provinces or the invasion of Crimea. Just like what happened in Korea, China didn't send troop when the NK were push back, they did when the NK were about to fall altogether. I think the same pattern will repeat here, if NATO ever decided to go mumbo-jumbo.