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Russian-Made SA Missile shot at Civilian Jet

YYW
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7/17/2014 6:58:15 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
US intel. confirms that Russian made surface to air missiles.

http://www.nytimes.com...

Ukraine"s president, Petro O. Poroshenko, called for an immediate investigation and asked the Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, to send Dutch experts to assist. "I would like to note that we are calling this not an incident, not a catastrophe, but a terrorist act," Mr. Poroshenko said.

Defense Department officials said late Thursday that they were examining the possibility that Ukrainian separatists with Russian advisers had fired a captured Ukrainian Army Buk missile system. The separatists do not otherwise have the technology to shoot down an airliner at such a high altitude, the officials said.

http://www.cnn.com...

The missile system, known as the SA-11 among NATO forces, is operated by both Russian and Ukrainian forces, according to retired Brig. Gen. Kevin Ryan, director of the Defense and Intelligence Project at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University. And it's more than capable of taking down an airliner flying at that altitude, he said. Such weapons travel with Russian troops at the division level, Francona said. "So the Russians on the other side of the Ukrainian border will have all of this weaponry available to them," he said.

Other possibilities include Russian-made S-200 missiles that are operated by the Ukrainian military as well as the Russian S-300 and S-400 missiles. The latter weapons are the Russian equivalent of U.S. Patriot missile defense batteries. What seems unlikely is that pro-Russia separatists might have gained control of such a sophisticated piece of weaponry and used it to shoot down an airliner, Ryan said. "It takes a lot of training and a lot of coordination to fire one of these and hit something," he said. Typically, a surface-to-air battery missile consists of a command post vehicle, a radar vehicle, several self-propelled launchers, loader vehicles and even more vehicles to carry new missiles to the batteries as necessary, according to Dan Wasserbly, Americas editor for IHS Jane's.

Ryan concludes then that if the plane really was shot down, a professional military force -- either on purpose or by accident -- was responsible.

http://www.cnbc.com...

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said his country's armed forces did not take action against any airborne targets. "We do not exclude that this plane was shot down, and we stress that the armed forces of Ukraine did not take action against any airborne targets," he said. "We are sure that those who are guilty in this tragedy will be held responsible."

http://www.rferl.org...

In a post on VKontakte, Russia's largest social media site, which has since been taken down, separatist leader Igor Girkin, aka Strelkov, wrote: "In the vicinity of Torez, we just downed a plane, an AN-26. It is lying somewhere in the Progress Mine. We have issued warnings not to fly in our airspace. We have video confirming. The bird fell on a waste heap. Residential areas were not hit. Civilians were not injured."

The AN-26 is a Soviet-built twin-engine transport plane used by the Ukrainian military. Torez is a small city of 80,000 located some 40 kilometers east of Donetsk. Included in the post were two videos that showed a rising plume of black smoke in the distance.

The claim was posted at 5:50 pm Moscow time, shortly before reports surfaced that the Malaysian civilian aircraft, on a flight from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, had crashed in eastern Ukraine in the same area near the Russian border.

A Ukrainian Interior Ministry adviser, Anton Herashchenko, claimed the plane had been shot down by a ground-to-air missile.

http://www.nytimes.com...

Another possibility, a senior Pentagon official said, was that Russian troops just across the border from eastern Ukraine may have fired the missile. In both scenarios, the senior official said, the missile operator most likely mistook the Malaysian airliner for a Ukrainian military transport plane. A third possibility, the official said, was that the Russians supplied the rebels with the missile.

Two senior Pentagon officials said military analysts suspected that the missile was either an SA-11 or an SA-20.
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YYW
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7/17/2014 7:06:18 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
I'm sure that the question of the hour in the Oval Office is:

To what extent is Moscow involved?
Tsar of DDO
Skynet
Posts: 674
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7/17/2014 10:38:30 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
Yeah, nothing Russia does surprises me anymore. Nothing America does surprises me either. When was the last time we fought a war for a good reason, had a goal of actually winning, and carried it through to the end? Imperial America? If you think that, you don't know Empire. Putin is a self-worshiping wild dog, and a big one, too. He needs to get his butt kicked when he starts acting like this. We moved troops into Georgia and that halted Russian incursion. But you wouldn't want to be like that, (effective) would you President Obama?
One perk to being a dad is you get to watch cartoons again without explaining yourself.
heisnotrisen
Posts: 126
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7/17/2014 10:48:49 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 7/17/2014 10:38:30 PM, Skynet wrote:
Yeah, nothing Russia does surprises me anymore. Nothing America does surprises me either. When was the last time we fought a war for a good reason, had a goal of actually winning, and carried it through to the end? Imperial America? If you think that, you don't know Empire. Putin is a self-worshiping wild dog, and a big one, too. He needs to get his butt kicked when he starts acting like this. We moved troops into Georgia and that halted Russian incursion. But you wouldn't want to be like that, (effective) would you President Obama?

If by winning you meant accomplishing a given objective with minor fatalities.
Skynet
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7/17/2014 10:54:40 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 7/17/2014 10:48:49 PM, heisnotrisen wrote:
At 7/17/2014 10:38:30 PM, Skynet wrote:
Yeah, nothing Russia does surprises me anymore. Nothing America does surprises me either. When was the last time we fought a war for a good reason, had a goal of actually winning, and carried it through to the end? Imperial America? If you think that, you don't know Empire. Putin is a self-worshiping wild dog, and a big one, too. He needs to get his butt kicked when he starts acting like this. We moved troops into Georgia and that halted Russian incursion. But you wouldn't want to be like that, (effective) would you President Obama?

If by winning you meant accomplishing a given objective with minor fatalities.

Would that even qualify as a war? I think the world would be better off, and certainly Korea, if we had finished the job. The same with the first Iraq war, Afghanistan, and Vietnam. Granted, there are some places we should not have been involved in. I guess when I say finish, I mean conquer. We don't have to be mean after we finish the job, just ruthless to certain people until the job is done. Worked in Germany.
One perk to being a dad is you get to watch cartoons again without explaining yourself.
heisnotrisen
Posts: 126
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7/17/2014 10:55:12 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 7/17/2014 6:58:15 PM, YYW wrote:
US intel. confirms that Russian made surface to air missiles.

http://www.nytimes.com...

Ukraine"s president, Petro O. Poroshenko, called for an immediate investigation and asked the Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, to send Dutch experts to assist. "I would like to note that we are calling this not an incident, not a catastrophe, but a terrorist act," Mr. Poroshenko said.

Defense Department officials said late Thursday that they were examining the possibility that Ukrainian separatists with Russian advisers had fired a captured Ukrainian Army Buk missile system. The separatists do not otherwise have the technology to shoot down an airliner at such a high altitude, the officials said.

http://www.cnn.com...

The missile system, known as the SA-11 among NATO forces, is operated by both Russian and Ukrainian forces, according to retired Brig. Gen. Kevin Ryan, director of the Defense and Intelligence Project at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University. And it's more than capable of taking down an airliner flying at that altitude, he said. Such weapons travel with Russian troops at the division level, Francona said. "So the Russians on the other side of the Ukrainian border will have all of this weaponry available to them," he said.

Other possibilities include Russian-made S-200 missiles that are operated by the Ukrainian military as well as the Russian S-300 and S-400 missiles. The latter weapons are the Russian equivalent of U.S. Patriot missile defense batteries. What seems unlikely is that pro-Russia separatists might have gained control of such a sophisticated piece of weaponry and used it to shoot down an airliner, Ryan said. "It takes a lot of training and a lot of coordination to fire one of these and hit something," he said. Typically, a surface-to-air battery missile consists of a command post vehicle, a radar vehicle, several self-propelled launchers, loader vehicles and even more vehicles to carry new missiles to the batteries as necessary, according to Dan Wasserbly, Americas editor for IHS Jane's.

Ryan concludes then that if the plane really was shot down, a professional military force -- either on purpose or by accident -- was responsible.

http://www.cnbc.com...

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said his country's armed forces did not take action against any airborne targets. "We do not exclude that this plane was shot down, and we stress that the armed forces of Ukraine did not take action against any airborne targets," he said. "We are sure that those who are guilty in this tragedy will be held responsible."

http://www.rferl.org...

In a post on VKontakte, Russia's largest social media site, which has since been taken down, separatist leader Igor Girkin, aka Strelkov, wrote: "In the vicinity of Torez, we just downed a plane, an AN-26. It is lying somewhere in the Progress Mine. We have issued warnings not to fly in our airspace. We have video confirming. The bird fell on a waste heap. Residential areas were not hit. Civilians were not injured."

The AN-26 is a Soviet-built twin-engine transport plane used by the Ukrainian military. Torez is a small city of 80,000 located some 40 kilometers east of Donetsk. Included in the post were two videos that showed a rising plume of black smoke in the distance.

The claim was posted at 5:50 pm Moscow time, shortly before reports surfaced that the Malaysian civilian aircraft, on a flight from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, had crashed in eastern Ukraine in the same area near the Russian border.

A Ukrainian Interior Ministry adviser, Anton Herashchenko, claimed the plane had been shot down by a ground-to-air missile.

http://www.nytimes.com...

Another possibility, a senior Pentagon official said, was that Russian troops just across the border from eastern Ukraine may have fired the missile. In both scenarios, the senior official said, the missile operator most likely mistook the Malaysian airliner for a Ukrainian military transport plane. A third possibility, the official said, was that the Russians supplied the rebels with the missile.

Two senior Pentagon officials said military analysts suspected that the missile was either an SA-11 or an SA-20.

If the mistake was made in distinguishing a military aircraft vs. a civilian aircraft, I'm cogitating; what reason would the missile have been fired if it was confirmed a military aircraft?
heisnotrisen
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7/17/2014 11:01:30 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 7/17/2014 10:54:40 PM, Skynet wrote:
At 7/17/2014 10:48:49 PM, heisnotrisen wrote:
At 7/17/2014 10:38:30 PM, Skynet wrote:
Yeah, nothing Russia does surprises me anymore. Nothing America does surprises me either. When was the last time we fought a war for a good reason, had a goal of actually winning, and carried it through to the end? Imperial America? If you think that, you don't know Empire. Putin is a self-worshiping wild dog, and a big one, too. He needs to get his butt kicked when he starts acting like this. We moved troops into Georgia and that halted Russian incursion. But you wouldn't want to be like that, (effective) would you President Obama?

If by winning you meant accomplishing a given objective with minor fatalities.

Would that even qualify as a war? I think the world would be better off, and certainly Korea, if we had finished the job. The same with the first Iraq war, Afghanistan, and Vietnam. Granted, there are some places we should not have been involved in. I guess when I say finish, I mean conquer. We don't have to be mean after we finish the job, just ruthless to certain people until the job is done. Worked in Germany.

I agree eliminating a threat that either has attacked or is potentially indicative of a pending attack, yet I would be tentative about the latter.
suttichart.denpruektham
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7/18/2014 6:08:26 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
Two senior Pentagon officials said military analysts suspected that the missile was either an SA-11 or an SA-20.

If the mistake was made in distinguishing a military aircraft vs. a civilian aircraft, I'm cogitating; what reason would the missile have been fired if it was confirmed a military aircraft?

I think may be it was just an accident.. most SAM today are fire-and-forget, that means the missile track a target by itself. Let's say if some heat-seeker MANPAD missed its helicopter target and continue in to the sky, it can easily target an airliner who happen to cruise along its route.

Airliners are designed to be detectable, they produce a lot of heat, a lot of radar signature so anyone can track them in case of emergency. This made them an idea target for smart anti-air missile that will just go to any target with large heat or radar signature and not equipped with IFF.
suttichart.denpruektham
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7/18/2014 6:11:40 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
I just got some heartless idea, this might be the best time of the year to buy the Malaysian Airline.. two crashes? I bet they will got some very nice chalk of cashed from the insurance...
suttichart.denpruektham
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7/18/2014 6:11:40 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
I just got some heartless idea, this might be the best time of the year to buy the Malaysian Airline.. two crashes? I bet they will got some very nice chalk of cashed from the insurance...
slo1
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7/19/2014 4:23:48 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 7/17/2014 10:38:30 PM, Skynet wrote:
Yeah, nothing Russia does surprises me anymore. Nothing America does surprises me either. When was the last time we fought a war for a good reason, had a goal of actually winning, and carried it through to the end? Imperial America? If you think that, you don't know Empire. Putin is a self-worshiping wild dog, and a big one, too. He needs to get his butt kicked when he starts acting like this. We moved troops into Georgia and that halted Russian incursion. But you wouldn't want to be like that, (effective) would you President Obama?

Bush moved troops in Georgia and stopped the Russian incursion? What alternate reality are you from?
YYW
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7/19/2014 6:32:45 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
There are a couple of things that need to be mentioned about this situation now...

The team that shot down that Boeing 777 could not have mistook it for a Ukrainian military aircraft. The flight pattern that the plane was flying was well known, internationally recognized and there would be no reason that a Ukrainian military plane would be flying at >30,000 feet coming from the Netherlands. And even if the Russians who fired the missile didn't know the plane's origin, Buk missile systems have the technical ability to distinguish between civilian and military aircraft.

The missile's reverse arc indicates that (according to US intelligence) that the missile originated from a rebel held area in Ukraine. There is no way that the Ukrainian government could have fired the missile, because (also according to US intelligence) there is evidence that Ukraine did not have Buk antiaircraft missiles there. Furthermore, there was a timestamped video released by the international media today of a Buk missile system (which was missing two missiles -one which would have been used to bring down a Ukrainian fighter jet and the other which shot down a civilian aircraft) leaving the area where the missile originated and heading for the Russian border.

These missile systems are incredibly complex to operate. Your run of the mill Eastern Ukrainian rebel could not have operated it, much less hit a target at >30,000 feet, which means that it was not only a Russian weapon that the Russians sent to Ukraine, but there were also Russians to operate it. The evidence and scene have obviously been contaminated, but determining where the Buk unit came from will not be difficult. Analysis of explosive residue will trace it back to the Russians, and when it does there will be hell to pay.

This was not an accident. This was an act of terrorism against the West by Russia. This means that Russia has sponsored terrorism in Eastern Ukraine and at the West's expense. Putin could have been complicit or outrightly endorsed it. It is infeasible that he didn't have a hand in that Buk being in Ukraine, just as it is infeasible that anyone other than a Russian team launched those rockets from a territory controlled by pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine.
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ararmer1919
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7/20/2014 12:30:44 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 7/19/2014 6:32:45 PM, YYW wrote:
There are a couple of things that need to be mentioned about this situation now...

The team that shot down that Boeing 777 could not have mistook it for a Ukrainian military aircraft. The flight pattern that the plane was flying was well known, internationally recognized and there would be no reason that a Ukrainian military plane would be flying at >30,000 feet coming from the Netherlands. And even if the Russians who fired the missile didn't know the plane's origin, Buk missile systems have the technical ability to distinguish between civilian and military aircraft.

The missile's reverse arc indicates that (according to US intelligence) that the missile originated from a rebel held area in Ukraine. There is no way that the Ukrainian government could have fired the missile, because (also according to US intelligence) there is evidence that Ukraine did not have Buk antiaircraft missiles there. Furthermore, there was a timestamped video released by the international media today of a Buk missile system (which was missing two missiles -one which would have been used to bring down a Ukrainian fighter jet and the other which shot down a civilian aircraft) leaving the area where the missile originated and heading for the Russian border.

These missile systems are incredibly complex to operate. Your run of the mill Eastern Ukrainian rebel could not have operated it, much less hit a target at >30,000 feet, which means that it was not only a Russian weapon that the Russians sent to Ukraine, but there were also Russians to operate it. The evidence and scene have obviously been contaminated, but determining where the Buk unit came from will not be difficult. Analysis of explosive residue will trace it back to the Russians, and when it does there will be hell to pay.

This was not an accident. This was an act of terrorism against the West by Russia. This means that Russia has sponsored terrorism in Eastern Ukraine and at the West's expense. Putin could have been complicit or outrightly endorsed it. It is infeasible that he didn't have a hand in that Buk being in Ukraine, just as it is infeasible that anyone other than a Russian team launched those rockets from a territory controlled by pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine.

I know that there is one confirmed American killed in this attack as well. It's time our politicians stop tiptoeing around this subject and act. A few drone strikes in eastern Ukrainian would be a good start.

Also, little funny side note. That video of the Buk system you saw being taken towards Russia. The Putin fanatics on another forum page have already found the lie, I mean answer, for that. That Buk system was Ukrainian and the Ukrainians used it to shot down the plane but right afterword the Rebels somehow captured it and they were simply taking it to Russia so it can be examined. The Putin fanatics are way to clever for us.
YYW
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7/20/2014 4:12:46 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
The White House's account of what happened indicated that pro-Russian rebels which were trained in the operation of an SA-11 (a.k.a. Buk anti-aircraft surface to air missile system) and supplied with the SA-11 by Russia believed that the Malaysia Airlines flight which they shot out of the sky with the SA-11 was a Ukrainian supply plane. But, why would a Ukrainian supply plane be flying at >32,000 feet over Ukraine? It's possible that the rebels, and perhaps even probable, were too inept to understand that simple fact's significance. But, what that means is that Russia failed to teach the rebels who they armed how to distinguish between civilian and military aircraft -which is perhaps the most veritable act of irresponsibility that any state actor has perpetrated since McArthur's defying orders in Korea that risked inciting war with the Chinese.

The positives in this are that it's not likely to start WWIII, but I think it's not an understatement to say that this is the tensest relationship the West has had with Russia since the height of the cold war. But, this isn't an easy case to decide how to respond too. Russia's arming the separatists to begin with was as imprudent as it was risky because a non-state actor has less to lose from a catastrophically stupid mistake than a state actor would. It's much harder to deal with non-state actors and hold them accountable with international law and the laws of war than it is a state actor so non-state actors have less incentive to exercise discretion when using force. And, I think Putin probably knows that.

It's really tempting to believe that he authorized that SA-11's being transported in Ukraine, but the reality of the Russian military is a bit different than what our perception of it might be. Firstly, it is highly corrupt. Secondly, the Russian military's chain of command is not always respected. I think the most likely scenario here is that Putin knew about some heavy munitions, of which he may or may not have known that surface to air missiles were included, were being transported but it's likely that Putin also kept his distance to insulate himself from political blowback. The risk in that, though, is that when there's ambiguity about what's to be done (such as when subordinates are given a wide degree of interpretative latitude), very bad things like this can happen.

It is also possible that Putin may have given an order to do one thing thing and the subordinate who received that order, with his own agenda, did something else entirely. That's what happened with McArthur in Korea. He was given one set of instructions, and because he was an incompetent and arrogant git, did something else entirely because he thought he knew best. That is not to say that Putin is vindicated from responsibility, but it is to acknowledge the reality of hierarchal command: direct orders can be misinterpreted if they are vague, or ignored by military officials. While it is unfortunate that McArthur was not publicly disgraced for his actions, it is likely that if this is the case, the military official who did this will just be silently killed while the Kremlin spins a narrative of alternate reality. That's the difference between Russian justice and the United States, I suppose.

I think that the fact that Obama has not done anything significant yet indicates that either he does not know what actually happened with precision, or that he is unsure of how to respond. I think that the increased sanctions were a good first step, but I think that whether Putin had a hand in getting that SA-11 to Ukraine or not, Europe and the United States should take substantial measures to harm Russia's state petrochemical industry -but I don't think sanctions alone are sufficient. I also think that armed UN peacekeepers (who are authorized to use force if necessary to facilitate international access to the crash site or defend international media/inspectors from pro-Russian rebels) should accompany the international inspectors in Eastern Ukraine.
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Skynet
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7/20/2014 10:17:18 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 7/19/2014 4:23:48 PM, slo1 wrote:
At 7/17/2014 10:38:30 PM, Skynet wrote:
Yeah, nothing Russia does surprises me anymore. Nothing America does surprises me either. When was the last time we fought a war for a good reason, had a goal of actually winning, and carried it through to the end? Imperial America? If you think that, you don't know Empire. Putin is a self-worshiping wild dog, and a big one, too. He needs to get his butt kicked when he starts acting like this. We moved troops into Georgia and that halted Russian incursion. But you wouldn't want to be like that, (effective) would you President Obama?

Bush moved troops in Georgia and stopped the Russian incursion? What alternate reality are you from?

Just what I saw on NatGeo channel a few months ago when this Ukraine thing started. We didn't push them back or openly fight them, just sent troops and aid. Maybe the documentary was all wet, because our effect was small.

My point is, I think Bush would have done more, and not so concerned about how he thinks his actions will affect polling.
One perk to being a dad is you get to watch cartoons again without explaining yourself.
YYW
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7/20/2014 10:18:45 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 7/20/2014 10:17:18 PM, Skynet wrote:
At 7/19/2014 4:23:48 PM, slo1 wrote:
At 7/17/2014 10:38:30 PM, Skynet wrote:
Yeah, nothing Russia does surprises me anymore. Nothing America does surprises me either. When was the last time we fought a war for a good reason, had a goal of actually winning, and carried it through to the end? Imperial America? If you think that, you don't know Empire. Putin is a self-worshiping wild dog, and a big one, too. He needs to get his butt kicked when he starts acting like this. We moved troops into Georgia and that halted Russian incursion. But you wouldn't want to be like that, (effective) would you President Obama?

Bush moved troops in Georgia and stopped the Russian incursion? What alternate reality are you from?

Just what I saw on NatGeo channel a few months ago when this Ukraine thing started. We didn't push them back or openly fight them, just sent troops and aid. Maybe the documentary was all wet, because our effect was small.

My point is, I think Bush would have done more, and not so concerned about how he thinks his actions will affect polling.

Is it your claim that the reason Obama hasn't done more is because he's afraid of his poll numbers dropping?
Tsar of DDO
Skynet
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7/20/2014 10:37:04 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 7/20/2014 10:18:45 PM, YYW wrote:
At 7/20/2014 10:17:18 PM, Skynet wrote:
At 7/19/2014 4:23:48 PM, slo1 wrote:
At 7/17/2014 10:38:30 PM, Skynet wrote:
Yeah, nothing Russia does surprises me anymore. Nothing America does surprises me either. When was the last time we fought a war for a good reason, had a goal of actually winning, and carried it through to the end? Imperial America? If you think that, you don't know Empire. Putin is a self-worshiping wild dog, and a big one, too. He needs to get his butt kicked when he starts acting like this. We moved troops into Georgia and that halted Russian incursion. But you wouldn't want to be like that, (effective) would you President Obama?

Bush moved troops in Georgia and stopped the Russian incursion? What alternate reality are you from?

Just what I saw on NatGeo channel a few months ago when this Ukraine thing started. We didn't push them back or openly fight them, just sent troops and aid. Maybe the documentary was all wet, because our effect was small.

My point is, I think Bush would have done more, and not so concerned about how he thinks his actions will affect polling.

Is it your claim that the reason Obama hasn't done more is because he's afraid of his poll numbers dropping?

I don't know for sure. He could have other reasons, too. But in the past he has been strongly motivated by perceptions of public support. He didn't make a big push to help LGBT until they stopped donating right before his second election. So why wouldn't I suspect it?

In fact, I suspect even more sinister motives from our President. His friendliness towards Chavez, attraction to Communism in college, 2007 proposal to invade Pakistan while they were helping us, turning on Qaddafi after we scared him into helping us, turning on Egypt, and attempted friendliness toward Iran, makes me question if he would have all that much interest in helping a country like Ukraine or Poland against Russia. The only thing Putin fears is losing power. We need to show him messing with our friends results in some power loss.
One perk to being a dad is you get to watch cartoons again without explaining yourself.
YYW
Posts: 36,342
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7/20/2014 10:44:17 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 7/20/2014 10:37:04 PM, Skynet wrote:
At 7/20/2014 10:18:45 PM, YYW wrote:
At 7/20/2014 10:17:18 PM, Skynet wrote:
At 7/19/2014 4:23:48 PM, slo1 wrote:
At 7/17/2014 10:38:30 PM, Skynet wrote:
Yeah, nothing Russia does surprises me anymore. Nothing America does surprises me either. When was the last time we fought a war for a good reason, had a goal of actually winning, and carried it through to the end? Imperial America? If you think that, you don't know Empire. Putin is a self-worshiping wild dog, and a big one, too. He needs to get his butt kicked when he starts acting like this. We moved troops into Georgia and that halted Russian incursion. But you wouldn't want to be like that, (effective) would you President Obama?

Bush moved troops in Georgia and stopped the Russian incursion? What alternate reality are you from?

Just what I saw on NatGeo channel a few months ago when this Ukraine thing started. We didn't push them back or openly fight them, just sent troops and aid. Maybe the documentary was all wet, because our effect was small.

My point is, I think Bush would have done more, and not so concerned about how he thinks his actions will affect polling.

Is it your claim that the reason Obama hasn't done more is because he's afraid of his poll numbers dropping?

I don't know for sure.

I think that it would be absurd to say that he doesn't think about poll numbers when considering foreign policy decisions, but I think there's not a lot of force to the notion that Obama wouldn't retaliate against Putin for fear of his approval rating dropping.

He could have other reasons, too. But in the past he has been strongly motivated by perceptions of public support. He didn't make a big push to help LGBT until they stopped donating right before his second election. So why wouldn't I suspect it?

The problem with your thinking is the degree to which you attribute approval ratings as a constraining factor of Obama's foreign policy.

In fact, I suspect even more sinister motives from our President. His friendliness towards Chavez, attraction to Communism in college, 2007 proposal to invade Pakistan while they were helping us, turning on Qaddafi after we scared him into helping us, turning on Egypt, and attempted friendliness toward Iran, makes me question if he would have all that much interest in helping a country like Ukraine or Poland against Russia. The only thing Putin fears is losing power. We need to show him messing with our friends results in some power loss.

I'm not so sure about any of that, but I'm tired tonight. I'll address this later.
Tsar of DDO
Daltonian
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7/20/2014 11:00:02 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
Do you think the Kremlin would knowingly permit an act of terrorism against the west? I have no doubt that the Russian Government is involved in the affairs of the separatists in Ukraine, or that the separatists were being solicited weapons capable of destroying an aircraft - but I'm also very doubtful that anyone at the Kremlin had any knowledge that the strike was going to take place.

Essentially, I don't see any reason for a group of Russian Separatists trying to gain the respect of the International Community or the Russian Government themselves to intentionally and randomly shoot down a civilian airliner from Malaysia..

So, I don't think an act of terror is what happened, rather, the Russian Government started meddling in serious weapons dealing to unreliable separatist rebels and the hundreds of innocent people on that plane paid for their ignorance. :(
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Skynet
Posts: 674
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7/20/2014 11:03:04 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 7/20/2014 11:00:02 PM, Daltonian wrote:
Do you think the Kremlin would knowingly permit an act of terrorism against the west? I have no doubt that the Russian Government is involved in the affairs of the separatists in Ukraine, or that the separatists were being solicited weapons capable of destroying an aircraft - but I'm also very doubtful that anyone at the Kremlin had any knowledge that the strike was going to take place.

Essentially, I don't see any reason for a group of Russian Separatists trying to gain the respect of the International Community or the Russian Government themselves to intentionally and randomly shoot down a civilian airliner from Malaysia..

So, I don't think an act of terror is what happened, rather, the Russian Government started meddling in serious weapons dealing to unreliable separatist rebels and the hundreds of innocent people on that plane paid for their ignorance. :(

Seconded.
One perk to being a dad is you get to watch cartoons again without explaining yourself.
slo1
Posts: 4,354
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7/21/2014 7:12:44 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 7/20/2014 10:17:18 PM, Skynet wrote:
At 7/19/2014 4:23:48 PM, slo1 wrote:
At 7/17/2014 10:38:30 PM, Skynet wrote:
Yeah, nothing Russia does surprises me anymore. Nothing America does surprises me either. When was the last time we fought a war for a good reason, had a goal of actually winning, and carried it through to the end? Imperial America? If you think that, you don't know Empire. Putin is a self-worshiping wild dog, and a big one, too. He needs to get his butt kicked when he starts acting like this. We moved troops into Georgia and that halted Russian incursion. But you wouldn't want to be like that, (effective) would you President Obama?

Bush moved troops in Georgia and stopped the Russian incursion? What alternate reality are you from?

Just what I saw on NatGeo channel a few months ago when this Ukraine thing started. We didn't push them back or openly fight them, just sent troops and aid. Maybe the documentary was all wet, because our effect was small.

My point is, I think Bush would have done more, and not so concerned about how he thinks his actions will affect polling.

Well, history shows us exactly what Bush did and he did not do more. You must have been listening to Carl Rove on the Sunday morning news channels as he tries to rewrite history. Some humanitarian aid while Russia invaded Georgia, smacked them down, and put them under the thumb. Wonder who won that one?

Besides no President in his right mind is going to start a war with Russia right next to the Russian border. We should consider ourselves lucky that Bush had a subdued response. After all, if there was ever a president and staff who over interpreted threats and took action where non should have been taken, it would be Bush the second's administration.
TrueScotsman
Posts: 515
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7/21/2014 7:54:30 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 7/20/2014 11:00:02 PM, Daltonian wrote:
Do you think the Kremlin would knowingly permit an act of terrorism against the west? I have no doubt that the Russian Government is involved in the affairs of the separatists in Ukraine, or that the separatists were being solicited weapons capable of destroying an aircraft - but I'm also very doubtful that anyone at the Kremlin had any knowledge that the strike was going to take place.

Essentially, I don't see any reason for a group of Russian Separatists trying to gain the respect of the International Community or the Russian Government themselves to intentionally and randomly shoot down a civilian airliner from Malaysia..

So, I don't think an act of terror is what happened, rather, the Russian Government started meddling in serious weapons dealing to unreliable separatist rebels and the hundreds of innocent people on that plane paid for their ignorance. :(

This is precisely what I think happened. Good post!
Fgump
Posts: 1
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7/31/2014 10:37:09 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
I find it hard to believe that with the capabilities that particular surface to air missile system has that an accident occurred. At the very least obviously there is an expectation that those using it would have known in fact how to use it, i.e. can identify targets correctly.
I ask myself who has the most to gain from 298 dead daughters fathers wives etc. I cant think of a reason why rebels would intentionally shoot it down. It does not further their cause in any way as far as i can see, it could only serve to hinder their goals. As far as Kiev is concerned it is an ideal way to discredit the rebel cause. Being able to brand them with the terrorist label would be ideal for them.
As for the media coverage in the west it is obvious now days any issue/event it politicized and will skew any story to their political gain. The same can be said for the east.
By their own account western media 'sourced' their evidence from social media, i need not say more. And i think in this day and age any photo can be created to show whatever you want, so these 'satellite images' from either side don't add much credibility to the argument, what took them this long to release it.
All i see are people trying to fight for their homes.
And its not like this kind of thing hasn't happened before... IR655
suttichart.denpruektham
Posts: 1,115
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7/31/2014 12:14:28 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 7/31/2014 10:37:09 AM, Fgump wrote:
I find it hard to believe that with the capabilities that particular surface to air missile system has that an accident occurred. At the very least obviously there is an expectation that those using it would have known in fact how to use it, i.e. can identify targets correctly.
I ask myself who has the most to gain from 298 dead daughters fathers wives etc. I cant think of a reason why rebels would intentionally shoot it down. It does not further their cause in any way as far as i can see, it could only serve to hinder their goals. As far as Kiev is concerned it is an ideal way to discredit the rebel cause. Being able to brand them with the terrorist label would be ideal for them.
As for the media coverage in the west it is obvious now days any issue/event it politicized and will skew any story to their political gain. The same can be said for the east.
By their own account western media 'sourced' their evidence from social media, i need not say more. And i think in this day and age any photo can be created to show whatever you want, so these 'satellite images' from either side don't add much credibility to the argument, what took them this long to release it.
All i see are people trying to fight for their homes.
And its not like this kind of thing hasn't happened before... IR655

SAM identify its target via a database of radar signature from various type of air plane. In general, if that particular plane had no record in the same Data base they will just appear to be a large moving utility aircraft which can be easily mistook as a military transport.

Worse still, if the missile in question is of semi-active type rather than a fully active one, it doesn't even require human command to move in to its target. The rebel can intentionally shoot at the Kiev's fighter who successfully evade it with on board avionic or extreme manoeuvre, the missile could then gone astray and accidentally found the Malaysian flight and think of them as its target (the airliner is design for the biggest possible radar signature to make it's easier to recognize by human operator but also autonomous missile target).