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Is Marina Silva the Brazilian Obama?

joepbr
Posts: 128
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9/4/2014 2:10:37 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
So, Brazil is in the middle of presidential campaign, and one of the biggest twists ever happened. In August 13, the candidate for the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB), Eduardo Campos, who ranked 3rd in the polls, died in a plane crash, and was replaced by his running-mate Marina Silva.

Marina, who ran for office in 2010 for the green party and got almost 20% of the votes then, joined the PSB campaign after she failed to create a new party in time to run for this year's elections (in Brazil candidates can't run as independents), however, after she replaced Eduardo in the race, she started growing very fast in the polls, which was already expected, due to the commotion after Eduardo's death and because she is more known nationally than him, however, no one predicted that she would go as far as to reach a technical tie with the candidate for reelection, Dilma Rousseff, and actually defeating her in a second round.

Several parallels can be traced between Marina Silva and Obama. Like him, she can be elected the first "black" president of her country (although I don't think either Obama nor Marina are exactly black), they both have unusual origins and life histories, and they both present utopic promises of change that have gathered millions of supporters, even though they seem most likely unachievable. And one of the reasons for that is that the parties that support Marina are tiny and could never reach a considerable number in the congress, so she would have to face a harsh opposition (like Obama) and would be pressed to do exactly the things that she vows to fight against, that is, making deals and alliances with opportunist parties and politicians, by distributing posts in her government and other benefits (which may include corruption schemes).

The only thing certain about a possible Marina government is that no one knows how it will be. It's hard to tell how many changes she could bring as president, but one thing is clear: she has already changed Brazilian politics - which had been dominated by a boring polarization between the leftist Worker's Party (PT) and the closet rightist Brazilian Social-Democracy Party (PSDB) since 1994.
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fazz
Posts: 1,617
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9/9/2014 5:03:09 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
Holy Shitt!

She is a Marxist Enviro-fundamentalist Nun. Wow.

Her race and background as community organizer is closely linked to Obama's background.

History in the making...
AnDoctuir
Posts: 11,060
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9/9/2014 5:06:11 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 9/9/2014 5:03:09 PM, fazz wrote:
Holy Shitt!

She is a Marxist Enviro-fundamentalist Nun. Wow.

Her race and background as community organizer is closely linked to Obama's background.

History in the making...

lmfao
charleslb
Posts: 4,740
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9/9/2014 5:21:29 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 9/4/2014 2:10:37 AM, joepbr wrote:

Several parallels can be traced between Marina Silva and Obama. Like him, she can be elected the first "black" president of her country...

And if elected, just like Obama she'll reveal herself to be just another co-opted-by-the-global-economic-power-elite politico who grievously lets down her naively progressive supporters.
Yo, all of my subliterate conservative criticasters who find perusing and processing the sesquipedalian verbiage of my posts to be such a bothersome brain-taxing chore, I have a new nickname for you. Henceforth you shall be known as Pooh Bears. No, not for the obvious apt reasons, i.e., not because you're full of pooh, and not because of your ursine irritability. Rather, you put me in mind of an A.A. Milne quote, "I am a Bear of Very Little Brain, and long words bother me". Love ya, Pooh Bears.
fazz
Posts: 1,617
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9/9/2014 6:15:24 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 9/9/2014 5:21:29 PM, charleslb wrote:
At 9/4/2014 2:10:37 AM, joepbr wrote:

Several parallels can be traced between Marina Silva and Obama. Like him, she can be elected the first "black" president of her country...

And if elected, just like Obama she'll reveal herself to be just another co-opted-by-the-global-economic-power-elite politico who grievously lets down her naively progressive supporters.

Well, I like Obama.. but Charles read the articles i sent you.
joepbr
Posts: 128
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9/10/2014 7:41:48 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 9/9/2014 5:32:47 PM, AnDoctuir wrote:
Dude... she's a nun.

She is not a nun. She almost became one, but she decided to go to college instead and became a politician.
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AnDoctuir
Posts: 11,060
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9/10/2014 7:50:28 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 9/10/2014 7:41:48 PM, joepbr wrote:
At 9/9/2014 5:32:47 PM, AnDoctuir wrote:
Dude... she's a nun.

She is not a nun. She almost became one, but she decided to go to college instead and became a politician.

That's an interesting lady.
joepbr
Posts: 128
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9/10/2014 9:38:44 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 9/10/2014 7:50:28 PM, AnDoctuir wrote:
At 9/10/2014 7:41:48 PM, joepbr wrote:
At 9/9/2014 5:32:47 PM, AnDoctuir wrote:
Dude... she's a nun.

She is not a nun. She almost became one, but she decided to go to college instead and became a politician.

That's an interesting lady.

Yes, she is. She was born into poverty in a rubber plantation in the state of Acre, the poorest state in the amazon region and one of the most isolated regions in the world (just a couple months ago a previously uncontacted indigenous tribe was discovered in the state). She only moved to Rio Branco, the capital of Acre at age 14 to seek medical care in one of the five times she contracted malaria during her life. There she started working as a maid and studying in the convent where she wanted to become a nun, she was illiterate until the age of 16, but at 26 she graduated in history in the Federal University of Acre, where she had contact with social movements and labor unions, so she became a politician and was a companion of Chico Mendes, a famous militant who fought against the destruction of the amazon and was assassinated by land owners. Later she became the youngest person to be elected to the Brazilian senate in the history of the republic, at 36.
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joepbr
Posts: 128
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9/10/2014 9:59:50 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 9/10/2014 7:55:59 PM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
......oh, is Marina Kenyan as well?

No, but since she was born in a border area, people who have nothing better to do with their lives could waste their time claiming she was born in Bolivia.
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fazz
Posts: 1,617
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9/12/2014 6:28:52 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 9/10/2014 7:55:59 PM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
......oh, is Marina Kenyan as well?

No, I just meant the 'color' of her skin is the same as Obama. Race is a big factor just like in the US.
joepbr
Posts: 128
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9/20/2014 2:01:01 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 9/18/2014 3:57:04 AM, fazz wrote:
Any updates from down under?

Well, right now the presidential campaign is in a dark phase. After the great rise of Marina in the polls, the PT turned to dirty tricks,and is using most of it's 55 million dollar campaign to spread fear mongering about Marina, trying to portray her as a religious fundamentalist who is controlled by banks and who wants to sell the Amazon to foreign governments, while claiming that her ideas to focus on renewable energy instead of oil will destroy the country's education and health systems, and that her economic policies would make food magically disappear from the poor people's homes (as if the current state of high inflation and technical recession isn't doing exactly that).

Unfortunately, these tactics appears to have worked to some extent (which means it's likely that this campaign will keep being mostly about dirty tricks, which is something terrible to democracy). In the polls, Dilma, who was tied with Marina in late August has risen to 37% of voting intentions against 30% for Marina, and 17% for Aecio Neves (from PSDB). In a runoff vote Marina is still ahead, but the difference between Marina and Dilma has dropped from 10% to only 2%, which means a technical tie between the two.
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fazz
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9/20/2014 5:41:04 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 9/20/2014 2:01:01 AM, joepbr wrote:
At 9/18/2014 3:57:04 AM, fazz wrote:
Any updates from down under?

Well, right now the presidential campaign is in a dark phase. After the great rise of Marina in the polls, the PT turned to dirty tricks,and is using most of it's 55 million dollar campaign to spread fear mongering about Marina, trying to portray her as a religious fundamentalist who is controlled by banks and who wants to sell the Amazon to foreign governments, while claiming that her ideas to focus on renewable energy instead of oil will destroy the country's education and health systems, and that her economic policies would make food magically disappear from the poor people's homes (as if the current state of high inflation and technical recession isn't doing exactly that).

Unfortunately, these tactics appears to have worked to some extent (which means it's likely that this campaign will keep being mostly about dirty tricks, which is something terrible to democracy). In the polls, Dilma, who was tied with Marina in late August has risen to 37% of voting intentions against 30% for Marina, and 17% for Aecio Neves (from PSDB). In a runoff vote Marina is still ahead, but the difference between Marina and Dilma has dropped from 10% to only 2%, which means a technical tie between the two.

article: http://veja.abril.com.br...

I dont read Portuguese but the above says that Marina was not allowed to counter accusations in campaign adverts. What are the campaingn rules and legality of advertising. If I remember correctly (you mentioned) that advertising is free for candidates on public television?

Secondly, is Pre-salt exploration like fracking oil? What is the value to economy?
joepbr
Posts: 128
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9/20/2014 11:56:54 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 9/20/2014 5:41:04 PM, fazz wrote:
At 9/20/2014 2:01:01 AM, joepbr wrote:
At 9/18/2014 3:57:04 AM, fazz wrote:
Any updates from down under?

Well, right now the presidential campaign is in a dark phase. After the great rise of Marina in the polls, the PT turned to dirty tricks,and is using most of it's 55 million dollar campaign to spread fear mongering about Marina, trying to portray her as a religious fundamentalist who is controlled by banks and who wants to sell the Amazon to foreign governments, while claiming that her ideas to focus on renewable energy instead of oil will destroy the country's education and health systems, and that her economic policies would make food magically disappear from the poor people's homes (as if the current state of high inflation and technical recession isn't doing exactly that).

Unfortunately, these tactics appears to have worked to some extent (which means it's likely that this campaign will keep being mostly about dirty tricks, which is something terrible to democracy). In the polls, Dilma, who was tied with Marina in late August has risen to 37% of voting intentions against 30% for Marina, and 17% for Aecio Neves (from PSDB). In a runoff vote Marina is still ahead, but the difference between Marina and Dilma has dropped from 10% to only 2%, which means a technical tie between the two.

article: http://veja.abril.com.br...

I dont read Portuguese but the above says that Marina was not allowed to counter accusations in campaign adverts. What are the campaingn rules and legality of advertising. If I remember correctly (you mentioned) that advertising is free for candidates on public television?

Secondly, is Pre-salt exploration like fracking oil? What is the value to economy?

Yes, political advertisement is free on TV during two periods of 50 minutes every day, at 1pm and 8:30pm, this time is divided between the parties and coalitions, so that the biggest coalitions and the parties with most representation in congress get more time than the others. Half of those 50 min on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays is reserved for the presidential campaign (the rest goes for federal and state deputies, senators and governors). Since Dilma has a huge coalition (comprising these parties: PT, PMDB, PSD, PP, PR, PROS, PDT, PCdoB and PRB, representing almost 75% of congress), she gets about 12 minutes, almost half of the whole time destined for presidential campaigns. Aecio, with a coalition with a few medium parties and some tiny ones has 4,5 minutes, while Marina has only 2 minutes, since her coalition comprises two medium parties, and a couple tiny ones. All the other candidates (there is a total of 11 candidates this year) are in a single party campaign, the ones that have some representation in congress have about 1 minute, while those who don't (mostly communist parties) have only 45 seconds each.

This is a complicated matter, but the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) can grant the right to answer when one candidate feels that an opponent is making unfair of false accusations about him. If the TSE accepts the complaint, it can grant some time of the opponent to the offended part to use in his defense, on this specific case, the TSE decided that there wasn't a clear false accusation by Dilma's campaign, but that the claim that Marina would "put an end to the pre-salt" is just a matter of interpretation of Marina's government project (as if it was possible to "put an end" to a an oil deposit)

As for the pre-salt, it's a huge oil reserve (although not as big as to make Brazil a potential member of OPEC, as the government once tried to claim) that was discovered in 2006. During that time, Dilma was minister of mines and energy, so it has been massively used to advertise the government and herself (as if they were the ones responsible for putting oil 4000 m bellow the sea floor). Despite being announced in 2006, the technology to start drilling the oil didn't existed back then, and only recently it started to be explored, and it's expected to bring about R$1.3 trillion (about 550 billion dollars) until 2026. Dilma actually made a huge effort after last year's protests to convince congress to destine all the profit of the pre-salt for heath and education systems, so she is now using her campaign not only to say that Marina will "put an end" to the pre-salt, but also that this will destroy the country's education (on her add, the pages of children books in a school became blank after business people make a deal).

However, the pre-salt discovery wasn't entirely good. Before that, Brazil was one of the leaders in biofuel technology, we have been developing sugarcane ethanol since the 70s oil crisis, and after the increase in the demand for renewable sources of energy in the world, Brazil was investing in this type of technology like never before, however, after the pre-salt, the biofuels were left aside and oil have been deified in government adds. As an environmentalist, Marina support the return of investment in the renewable sector, which is not only important for the environment, but also for the development of native technological advancements in one of the most important areas of research in the world, so she said that she won't prioritize the pre-salt at the expense of other important energy areas like the government is doing. Dilma's campaign however twisted her words, saying that she will "put an end" to the pre-salt leading the the destruction of national education.

P.S.: I don't advise using Veja as your main source of Brazilian news, it's extremely right-wing biased (basically the Brazilian Fox News). You can find less biased new at Folha de S. Paulo or Estadao. Actually, Folha even has an English site, check it out if you are interested: http://www1.folha.uol.com.br...
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fazz
Posts: 1,617
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10/26/2014 1:50:40 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 9/20/2014 2:01:01 AM, joepbr wrote:
At 9/18/2014 3:57:04 AM, fazz wrote:
Any updates from down under?

Well, right now the presidential campaign is in a dark phase. After the great rise of Marina in the polls, the PT turned to dirty tricks,and is using most of it's 55 million dollar campaign to spread fear mongering about Marina, trying to portray her as a religious fundamentalist who is controlled by banks and who wants to sell the Amazon to foreign governments, while claiming that her ideas to focus on renewable energy instead of oil will destroy the country's education and health systems, and that her economic policies would make food magically disappear from the poor people's homes (as if the current state of high inflation and technical recession isn't doing exactly that).

Unfortunately, these tactics appears to have worked to some extent (which means it's likely that this campaign will keep being mostly about dirty tricks, which is something terrible to democracy). In the polls, Dilma, who was tied with Marina in late August has risen to 37% of voting intentions against 30% for Marina, and 17% for Aecio Neves (from PSDB). In a runoff vote Marina is still ahead, but the difference between Marina and Dilma has dropped from 10% to only 2%, which means a technical tie between the two.

So no socialist revolution for us? I mean, she's not going to win.. ;(
Greyparrot
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10/26/2014 2:04:33 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 10/26/2014 1:50:40 PM, fazz wrote:
At 9/20/2014 2:01:01 AM, joepbr wrote:
At 9/18/2014 3:57:04 AM, fazz wrote:
Any updates from down under?

Well, right now the presidential campaign is in a dark phase. After the great rise of Marina in the polls, the PT turned to dirty tricks,and is using most of it's 55 million dollar campaign to spread fear mongering about Marina, trying to portray her as a religious fundamentalist who is controlled by banks and who wants to sell the Amazon to foreign governments, while claiming that her ideas to focus on renewable energy instead of oil will destroy the country's education and health systems, and that her economic policies would make food magically disappear from the poor people's homes (as if the current state of high inflation and technical recession isn't doing exactly that).

Unfortunately, these tactics appears to have worked to some extent (which means it's likely that this campaign will keep being mostly about dirty tricks, which is something terrible to democracy). In the polls, Dilma, who was tied with Marina in late August has risen to 37% of voting intentions against 30% for Marina, and 17% for Aecio Neves (from PSDB). In a runoff vote Marina is still ahead, but the difference between Marina and Dilma has dropped from 10% to only 2%, which means a technical tie between the two.

So no socialist revolution for us? I mean, she's not going to win.. ;(

Could mean great things for America if there was a socialist revolution in Brazil.
fazz
Posts: 1,617
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10/26/2014 2:11:33 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 10/26/2014 2:04:33 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 10/26/2014 1:50:40 PM, fazz wrote:
At 9/20/2014 2:01:01 AM, joepbr wrote:
At 9/18/2014 3:57:04 AM, fazz wrote:
Any updates from down under?

Well, right now the presidential campaign is in a dark phase. After the great rise of Marina in the polls, the PT turned to dirty tricks,and is using most of it's 55 million dollar campaign to spread fear mongering about Marina, trying to portray her as a religious fundamentalist who is controlled by banks and who wants to sell the Amazon to foreign governments, while claiming that her ideas to focus on renewable energy instead of oil will destroy the country's education and health systems, and that her economic policies would make food magically disappear from the poor people's homes (as if the current state of high inflation and technical recession isn't doing exactly that).

Unfortunately, these tactics appears to have worked to some extent (which means it's likely that this campaign will keep being mostly about dirty tricks, which is something terrible to democracy). In the polls, Dilma, who was tied with Marina in late August has risen to 37% of voting intentions against 30% for Marina, and 17% for Aecio Neves (from PSDB). In a runoff vote Marina is still ahead, but the difference between Marina and Dilma has dropped from 10% to only 2%, which means a technical tie between the two.

So no socialist revolution for us? I mean, she's not going to win.. ;(

Could mean great things for America if there was a socialist revolution in Brazil.

As in the Americas down under or here?
Material_Girl
Posts: 264
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10/27/2014 5:48:15 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
No socialist "revolution," could ever happen if we just elected someone who claimed to be a socialist. It would take direct proletarian action. Without any elite ("vanguard,") to form a new bourgeoisie.

Unfortunately, the run-off is yet another contest between Rouseff and Neves. Such a shame. I can't say I like any of these candidates - and I certainly don't like it when moderates, liberals, Greens and Bernstein-esque social democrats masquerade as socialists - but I feel like Marina Silva would shake things up a bit. And Brazil needs that. There seems to be plenty of dissatisfaction in that country, but the people don't seem as though they want to revolt (it wouldn't be the right time for a socialist revolution in Brazil) or even elect a populist candidate.
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fazz
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10/27/2014 9:22:19 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 10/27/2014 5:48:15 PM, Material_Girl wrote:
No socialist "revolution," could ever happen if we just elected someone who claimed to be a socialist. It would take direct proletarian action. Without any elite ("vanguard,") to form a new bourgeoisie.

Unfortunately, the run-off is yet another contest between Rouseff and Neves. Such a shame. I can't say I like any of these candidates - and I certainly don't like it when moderates, liberals, Greens and Bernstein-esque social democrats masquerade as socialists - but I feel like Marina Silva would shake things up a bit. And Brazil needs that. There seems to be plenty of dissatisfaction in that country, but the people don't seem as though they want to revolt (it wouldn't be the right time for a socialist revolution in Brazil) or even elect a populist candidate.

That was a joke. I just meant the winds of change.