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2014 midterms

thett3
Posts: 14,371
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10/4/2014 7:19:18 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
We're a month out, y'all. Predictions?
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

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"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

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: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
dylancatlow
Posts: 12,251
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10/4/2014 7:46:25 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 10/4/2014 7:44:19 PM, YYW wrote:
I predict that people will go to the polls, and that as a country we will be no better off.
YYW
Posts: 36,357
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10/4/2014 7:49:28 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
The best possible thing that could happen is that Ted Cruz was caught having gay sex with a college intern. But, it's not likely that that's going to happen.
Tsar of DDO
apb4y
Posts: 480
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10/4/2014 7:57:01 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 10/4/2014 7:19:18 PM, thett3 wrote:
We're a month out, y'all. Predictions?

Something to do with American politics, I assume?

America's a lost cause. The outcome is irrelevant.
thett3
Posts: 14,371
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10/4/2014 7:58:59 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 10/4/2014 7:57:01 PM, apb4y wrote:
At 10/4/2014 7:19:18 PM, thett3 wrote:
We're a month out, y'all. Predictions?

Something to do with American politics, I assume?

America's a lost cause. The outcome is irrelevant.

I was going to make a trolly "America, F*ck yeah" type response but you've got me curious. In what way is the US a "lost cause"?
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
Contra
Posts: 3,941
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10/4/2014 8:42:31 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 10/4/2014 7:19:18 PM, thett3 wrote:
We're a month out, y'all. Predictions?

I feel like the Republicans might win control of the Senate, but their majority will be slight. And if the Republicans do win control of the Senate but have nothing to show for it in 2016, it will come back to hurt the eventual GOP nominee...
"The solution [for Republicans] is to admit that Bush was a bad president, stop this racist homophobic stuff, stop trying to give most of the tax cuts to the rich, propose a real alternative to Obamacare that actually works, and propose smart free market solutions to our economic problems." - Distraff

"Americans are better off in a dynamic, free-enterprise-based economy that fosters economic growth, opportunity and upward mobility." - Paul Ryan
numberwang
Posts: 1,917
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10/4/2014 8:57:40 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 10/4/2014 8:42:31 PM, Contra wrote:
At 10/4/2014 7:19:18 PM, thett3 wrote:
We're a month out, y'all. Predictions?

I feel like the Republicans might win control of the Senate, but their majority will be slight. And if the Republicans do win control of the Senate but have nothing to show for it in 2016, it will come back to hurt the eventual GOP nominee...

I think the fact that no one good candidates to mind when you think "GOP nominee" is more harmful to the GOP than midterm outcomes because you're right, nothing will happen in congress regardless of who controls it.

But I think dems will hold the Senate, not that it matters either way.
YamaVonKarma
Posts: 7,570
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10/4/2014 9:08:20 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 10/4/2014 7:19:18 PM, thett3 wrote:
We're a month out, y'all. Predictions?

Republicans win Senate, Obama care overturned, new shutdown.
People who I've called as mafia DP1:
TUF, and YYW
TN05
Posts: 4,492
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10/4/2014 9:14:23 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 10/4/2014 7:19:18 PM, thett3 wrote:
We're a month out, y'all. Predictions?

In the senate, the seats that flip are Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, and New Hampshire (all D to R) and Kansas (R to I). There could also be flips in North Carolina (D to R) and Georgia (R to D). With my predicted seats that is 52 R to 47 D, with the remaining vote being whoever Orman decides to caucus with (likely the Republicans), and Angus King might also choose to causes with the Republicans. Basically, even if Republicans lose Kansas it is very likely there could be a 53 or 54-seat Republican caucus.

In governor races, the seats that flip are Illinois, Connecticut, Colorado, and Massachusetts (D to R) and Kansas, Maine, and Pennsylvania (R to D). Hawaii, Michigan and Florida should be very, very close but I think they stay in their respective columns. That would mean that the number of governors stays the same (30 R, 20 D).

In the House, I expect Republican gains of between 10-15 seats.
TN05
Posts: 4,492
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10/4/2014 9:17:21 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 10/4/2014 9:14:23 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 10/4/2014 7:19:18 PM, thett3 wrote:
We're a month out, y'all. Predictions?

In the senate, the seats that flip are Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, and New Hampshire (all D to R) and Kansas (R to I). There could also be flips in North Carolina (D to R) and Georgia (R to D). With my predicted seats that is 52 R to 47 D, with the remaining vote being whoever Orman decides to caucus with (likely the Republicans), and Angus King might also choose to causes with the Republicans. Basically, even if Republicans lose Kansas it is very likely there could be a 53 or 54-seat Republican caucus.

In governor races, the seats that flip are Illinois, Connecticut, Colorado, and Massachusetts (D to R) and Kansas, Maine, and Pennsylvania (R to D). Hawaii, Michigan and Florida should be very, very close but I think they stay in their respective columns. That would mean that the number of governors stays the same (30 R, 20 D).

Forgot to mention here I expect Alaska to flip from R to I (they have a joint-ticket with a former Republican as Governor. and Democrat as Lieutenant Governor). For my purposes I count him as a Democrat which still keeps it at 30-20.

In the House, I expect Republican gains of between 10-15 seats.
TN05
Posts: 4,492
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10/4/2014 9:26:42 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 10/4/2014 7:49:28 PM, YYW wrote:
The best possible thing that could happen is that Ted Cruz was caught having gay sex with a college intern. But, it's not likely that that's going to happen.

He's not up for re-election. How would that affect anything?
TN05
Posts: 4,492
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10/4/2014 9:52:45 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
Gah, my math is all off. Here's my official predictions:

Senate - 55 R, 45 D (Republicans flip 9 seats - AK, AR, CO, LA,, MT, IA, NH, SD, WV. KS flips, but caucuses with R, as does ME's Angus King)
Governors - 30 R, 20 D (Republicans flip 5 seats - AR, CO, CT, IL, and MA. Dems flip 4 seats - AK, KS, ME, PA)
House - 240 R, 195 D (+/- 5 seats).
YYW
Posts: 36,357
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10/4/2014 9:57:03 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 10/4/2014 9:26:42 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 10/4/2014 7:49:28 PM, YYW wrote:
The best possible thing that could happen is that Ted Cruz was caught having gay sex with a college intern. But, it's not likely that that's going to happen.

He's not up for re-election. How would that affect anything?

He is a figurehead in the Republican party. His being trapped in a scandal would not just hurt him. It would hurt the entire faction of the Republican party that he represents. It could have profound electoral impacts, because it would put every tea bagging Republican in an intensely precarious situation. After all, there is no other figure who is more important to the Republican party right now.
Tsar of DDO
TN05
Posts: 4,492
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10/4/2014 10:00:08 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 10/4/2014 9:57:03 PM, YYW wrote:
At 10/4/2014 9:26:42 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 10/4/2014 7:49:28 PM, YYW wrote:
The best possible thing that could happen is that Ted Cruz was caught having gay sex with a college intern. But, it's not likely that that's going to happen.

He's not up for re-election. How would that affect anything?

He is a figurehead in the Republican party. His being trapped in a scandal would not just hurt him. It would hurt the entire faction of the Republican party that he represents. It could have profound electoral impacts, because it would put every tea bagging Republican in an intensely precarious situation. After all, there is no other figure who is more important to the Republican party right now.

So your best hope to win the election is to have someone get caught in a sex scandal? That's optimistic.
YYW
Posts: 36,357
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10/4/2014 10:03:01 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 10/4/2014 10:00:08 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 10/4/2014 9:57:03 PM, YYW wrote:
At 10/4/2014 9:26:42 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 10/4/2014 7:49:28 PM, YYW wrote:
The best possible thing that could happen is that Ted Cruz was caught having gay sex with a college intern. But, it's not likely that that's going to happen.

He's not up for re-election. How would that affect anything?

He is a figurehead in the Republican party. His being trapped in a scandal would not just hurt him. It would hurt the entire faction of the Republican party that he represents. It could have profound electoral impacts, because it would put every tea bagging Republican in an intensely precarious situation. After all, there is no other figure who is more important to the Republican party right now.

So your best hope to win the election is to have someone get caught in a sex scandal? That's optimistic.

I was being facetious; said another way, I was treating serious issues with deliberately inappropriate humor; flippant, so as to showcase my disdain for the state of politics at present.
Tsar of DDO
TN05
Posts: 4,492
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10/4/2014 10:03:18 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 10/4/2014 10:00:08 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 10/4/2014 9:57:03 PM, YYW wrote:
At 10/4/2014 9:26:42 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 10/4/2014 7:49:28 PM, YYW wrote:
The best possible thing that could happen is that Ted Cruz was caught having gay sex with a college intern. But, it's not likely that that's going to happen.

He's not up for re-election. How would that affect anything?

He is a figurehead in the Republican party. His being trapped in a scandal would not just hurt him. It would hurt the entire faction of the Republican party that he represents. It could have profound electoral impacts, because it would put every tea bagging Republican in an intensely precarious situation. After all, there is no other figure who is more important to the Republican party right now.

So your best hope to win the election is to have someone get caught in a sex scandal? That's optimistic.

Eh, I'll draw back a bit on that. That wasn't fair of me. I see where you come from there. I'm sure there are plenty of right-wing Republicans who have similar wishes about President Obama or Elizabeth Warren being caught in some big scandal. Ultimately, I don't see how that would ripple outside of Ted Cruz being forced out. The Tea Party is not some cohesive entity - it's a rough alignment of southern conservatives and libertarian-leaning Republicans. Cruz certainly is a prominent figure in the former, but he is at odds with the libertarians on so many issues he'd have a hard time uniting the vote. It's the same thing with Rand Paul - popular within his base, but can't unite the vote.
TN05
Posts: 4,492
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10/4/2014 10:03:58 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 10/4/2014 10:03:01 PM, YYW wrote:
At 10/4/2014 10:00:08 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 10/4/2014 9:57:03 PM, YYW wrote:
At 10/4/2014 9:26:42 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 10/4/2014 7:49:28 PM, YYW wrote:
The best possible thing that could happen is that Ted Cruz was caught having gay sex with a college intern. But, it's not likely that that's going to happen.

He's not up for re-election. How would that affect anything?

He is a figurehead in the Republican party. His being trapped in a scandal would not just hurt him. It would hurt the entire faction of the Republican party that he represents. It could have profound electoral impacts, because it would put every tea bagging Republican in an intensely precarious situation. After all, there is no other figure who is more important to the Republican party right now.

So your best hope to win the election is to have someone get caught in a sex scandal? That's optimistic.

I was being facetious; said another way, I was treating serious issues with deliberately inappropriate humor; flippant, so as to showcase my disdain for the state of politics at present.

I realize that, just wrote up a semi-contraction.
apb4y
Posts: 480
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10/5/2014 12:20:45 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 10/4/2014 7:58:59 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 10/4/2014 7:57:01 PM, apb4y wrote:
At 10/4/2014 7:19:18 PM, thett3 wrote:
We're a month out, y'all. Predictions?

Something to do with American politics, I assume?

America's a lost cause. The outcome is irrelevant.

I was going to make a trolly "America, F*ck yeah" type response but you've got me curious. In what way is the US a "lost cause"?

It's full of Americans.

Duh.
EndarkenedRationalist
Posts: 14,201
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10/5/2014 1:17:55 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 10/4/2014 9:08:20 PM, YamaVonKarma wrote:
At 10/4/2014 7:19:18 PM, thett3 wrote:
We're a month out, y'all. Predictions?

Republicans win Senate, Obama care overturned, new shutdown.

Rofl. They're still trying to do that? Jesus Christ. Work on passing new legislation instead of wasting time, effort, and money targeting something already declared Constitutional that, even if you succeed in passing legislation to repeal, the President will veto anyway.

Stuff like this is the problem with Congress these days.
YamaVonKarma
Posts: 7,570
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10/5/2014 9:39:35 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 10/5/2014 1:17:55 AM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
At 10/4/2014 9:08:20 PM, YamaVonKarma wrote:
At 10/4/2014 7:19:18 PM, thett3 wrote:
We're a month out, y'all. Predictions?

Republicans win Senate, Obama care overturned, new shutdown.

Rofl. They're still trying to do that? Jesus Christ. Work on passing new legislation instead of wasting time, effort, and money targeting something already declared Constitutional that, even if you succeed in passing legislation to repeal, the President will veto anyway.

Stuff like this is the problem with Congress these days.
Our Congress doesn't really have much faith, these days. I'll be surprised if more than 65% of our population even bother voting.
People who I've called as mafia DP1:
TUF, and YYW
EndarkenedRationalist
Posts: 14,201
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10/5/2014 10:44:48 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 10/5/2014 9:39:35 AM, YamaVonKarma wrote:
At 10/5/2014 1:17:55 AM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
At 10/4/2014 9:08:20 PM, YamaVonKarma wrote:
At 10/4/2014 7:19:18 PM, thett3 wrote:
We're a month out, y'all. Predictions?

Republicans win Senate, Obama care overturned, new shutdown.

Rofl. They're still trying to do that? Jesus Christ. Work on passing new legislation instead of wasting time, effort, and money targeting something already declared Constitutional that, even if you succeed in passing legislation to repeal, the President will veto anyway.

Stuff like this is the problem with Congress these days.
Our Congress doesn't really have much faith, these days. I'll be surprised if more than 65% of our population even bother voting.

The US hasn't had over 65% of the eligible voting age population vote since 1908.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org...
However, 2012 had a turnout of 66.67% of voters and numbers ranging throughout the 80%s before that. So..

http://www.idea.int...
Daltonian
Posts: 4,797
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10/5/2014 10:53:27 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 10/4/2014 7:46:25 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 10/4/2014 7:44:19 PM, YYW wrote:
I predict that people will go to the polls, and that as a country we will be no better off.
F _ C K
All I need is "u", baby
Contra
Posts: 3,941
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10/5/2014 1:34:36 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 10/4/2014 8:57:40 PM, numberwang wrote:
At 10/4/2014 8:42:31 PM, Contra wrote:
At 10/4/2014 7:19:18 PM, thett3 wrote:
We're a month out, y'all. Predictions?

I feel like the Republicans might win control of the Senate, but their majority will be slight. And if the Republicans do win control of the Senate but have nothing to show for it in 2016, it will come back to hurt the eventual GOP nominee...

I think the fact that no one good candidates to mind when you think "GOP nominee" is more harmful to the GOP than midterm outcomes because you're right, nothing will happen in congress regardless of who controls it.

There are a couple candidates that come to mind when I think of "GOP nominee", namely Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, Rand Paul, and Paul Ryan (there are plenty of other candidates who would be capable as well).

But I think dems will hold the Senate, not that it matters either way.

The Republican brand name definitely has its issues, so this is certainly feasible.
"The solution [for Republicans] is to admit that Bush was a bad president, stop this racist homophobic stuff, stop trying to give most of the tax cuts to the rich, propose a real alternative to Obamacare that actually works, and propose smart free market solutions to our economic problems." - Distraff

"Americans are better off in a dynamic, free-enterprise-based economy that fosters economic growth, opportunity and upward mobility." - Paul Ryan