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Ron Paul Loses Straw Poll

Reasoning
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4/13/2010 7:09:41 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
Ron Paul lost the Southern Republican Leadership Conference straw poll to Mitt Romney.

http://www.w-r-s.com...
"What we really ought to ask the liberal, before we even begin addressing his agenda, is this: In what kind of society would he be a conservative?" - Joseph Sobran
Marauder
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4/13/2010 8:06:16 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
I have heard from several of the people that live in my area that they would love nothing more Palin and Huckabee to be on the same ticket, I think that mindet shows a little in that straw poll between the first and second choices.
One act of Rebellion created all the darkness and evil in the world; One life of Total Obedience created a path back to eternity and God.

A Scout is Obedient.
Reasoning
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4/13/2010 9:34:17 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 4/13/2010 7:52:49 AM, Volkov wrote:
We kind of already had this thread. It was the one me, Nags, Ragnar, and occasionally you were arguing on.

Well, that would explain what "Ron Paul 2nd" meant.
"What we really ought to ask the liberal, before we even begin addressing his agenda, is this: In what kind of society would he be a conservative?" - Joseph Sobran
Rob1Billion
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4/14/2010 7:21:49 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
Ron Paul BARELY lost, it was like 249-248 wasn't it? Anyway, Paul would wipe the floor with Obama if the Republicans would nominate him, but I just don't think they are that smart... He has some good ideas, after all, and those certainly aren't going to resonate with the Republican base!
Master P is the end result of capitalism.
wjmelements
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4/14/2010 7:27:39 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
I can't believe that the Republican Party is willing to nominate Mitt Romney, the founder of Romneycare, essentially the same as Obamacare, with a few tiny differences.
in the blink of an eye you finally see the light
Volkov
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4/14/2010 7:28:34 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 4/14/2010 7:27:39 PM, wjmelements wrote:
I can't believe that the Republican Party is willing to nominate Mitt Romney, the founder of Romneycare, essentially the same as Obamacare, with a few tiny differences.

Actually it's better.

Romney for Prez! If he stops denying his liberalness!
Reasoning
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4/14/2010 7:30:31 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 4/14/2010 7:21:49 PM, Rob1Billion wrote:
Ron Paul BARELY lost, it was like 249-248 wasn't it? Anyway, Paul would wipe the floor with Obama if the Republicans would nominate him, but I just don't think they are that smart... He has some good ideas, after all, and those certainly aren't going to resonate with the Republican base!

I think they're that smart. Ron Paul vs Obama would have Ron Paul win easily. But that's the last thing the statists want.
"What we really ought to ask the liberal, before we even begin addressing his agenda, is this: In what kind of society would he be a conservative?" - Joseph Sobran
Volkov
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4/14/2010 7:42:17 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 4/14/2010 7:31:38 PM, Nags wrote:
Polling results for 2012 Presidential election:
- Barack Obama: 42%
- Ron Paul: 41%

F_ck yeah.

FiveThirtyEight covered this already. Paul's not as lucky as he seems, however he has better chances than Palin and Gingrich. Rasmussen is purposefully biased so don't put too much faith in their numbers.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...
Danielle
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4/14/2010 7:45:06 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 4/14/2010 7:21:49 PM, Rob1Billion wrote:
Ron Paul BARELY lost, it was like 249-248 wasn't it? Anyway, Paul would wipe the floor with Obama if the Republicans would nominate him, but I just don't think they are that smart... He has some good ideas, after all, and those certainly aren't going to resonate with the Republican base!

Exactly.
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Xer
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4/14/2010 7:46:58 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 4/14/2010 7:42:17 PM, Volkov wrote:
FiveThirtyEight covered this already.

538 is written by liberal Democratic hacks.

Paul's not as lucky as he seems, however he has better chances than Palin and Gingrich. Rasmussen is purposefully biased so don't put too much faith in their numbers.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...

538:
"But it would be wrong to take a Rasmussen poll (or any other) at face value without taking into account this context.

Instead, I've compiled all polls conducted since July of last year(**) that test Obama against a Republican opponent. For this exercise, I use the Real Clear Politics rule of only using one poll from each firm for each matchup (the most recent). I then adjust the polls for house effects using a simplified variation of our standard method; both Presidential approval polls and the numbers from these 2012 matchups are used to calibrate the house effect."

LMFAO. Umm, what? Yeah, let's just adjust the polling methodology because Nate likes it that way. What a hack.

Ron Paul is losing by one.
Danielle
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4/14/2010 7:47:16 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 4/14/2010 7:30:31 PM, Reasoning wrote:

I think they're that smart.

Hahaha. I hiiighly doubt that.

Ron Paul vs Obama would have Ron Paul win easily. But that's the last thing the statists want.

I don't know about "easily" but he'd be their (R) best hope.
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Volkov
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4/14/2010 7:48:39 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 4/14/2010 7:46:58 PM, Nags wrote:
Rasmussen right, career pollsters wrong, GOP RULZ

You're such a partisan hack.
Reasoning
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4/14/2010 7:50:02 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 4/14/2010 7:47:16 PM, theLwerd wrote:
At 4/14/2010 7:30:31 PM, Reasoning wrote:
I think they're that smart.

Hahaha. I hiiighly doubt that.

Don't underestimate the intelligence of the leadership.

Ron Paul vs Obama would have Ron Paul win easily. But that's the last thing the statists want.

I don't know about "easily" but he'd be their (R) best hope.

Easily. Once he gets media attention all the time and the chance to fully explain his views to the masses there will be no stopping him.

Of course, Goldwater didn't fare so well...
"What we really ought to ask the liberal, before we even begin addressing his agenda, is this: In what kind of society would he be a conservative?" - Joseph Sobran
Vi_Veri
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4/14/2010 7:50:46 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 4/14/2010 7:31:38 PM, Nags wrote:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com...

Polling results for 2012 Presidential election:
- Barack Obama: 42%
- Ron Paul: 41%

F_ck yeah.

eeeeh, I wouldn't trust them. Where's their margin of error? It could be as little as 1% and your "f_ck yeah" would mean nothing. See if you can find a Gallop Poll. They do really good statistics.
I could give a f about no haters as long as my ishes love me.
Danielle
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4/14/2010 7:50:53 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 4/14/2010 7:50:02 PM, Reasoning wrote:

Easily. Once he gets media attention all the time and the chance to fully explain his views to the masses there will be no stopping him.

Hahaha so now you're relying on the intelligence of the masses?
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Vi_Veri
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4/14/2010 7:52:09 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 4/14/2010 7:46:58 PM, Nags wrote:

Ron Paul is losing by one.

The statisticians on your source didn't report a margin of error so you have no backing to this claim. Ron Paul could be losing by 2-3%, even 5% without a declared margin of error. It makes the whole statistic look shady.
I could give a f about no haters as long as my ishes love me.
Xer
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4/14/2010 7:52:50 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 4/14/2010 7:48:39 PM, Volkov wrote:
At 4/14/2010 7:46:58 PM, Nags wrote:
Rasmussen right, career pollsters wrong, GOP RULZ

You're such a partisan hack.

That's not what I said. 538 changed the polling methodology to make Obama look like a God. Rasmussen is one of, if not the most, accurate polling organization in the country. Don't pout because you didn't read the article and just now figured out that 538 twists methodology to help the Democrats. There is no logical reason for them drastically changing the methodology as they did. It's disgusting.
Reasoning
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4/14/2010 7:53:13 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 4/14/2010 7:50:53 PM, theLwerd wrote:
At 4/14/2010 7:50:02 PM, Reasoning wrote:

Easily. Once he gets media attention all the time and the chance to fully explain his views to the masses there will be no stopping him.

Hahaha so now you're relying on the intelligence of the masses?

He's right, sis. There ain't no denying it. You don't have to be extraordinarily intelligent to realize that one of them is full of ****.
"What we really ought to ask the liberal, before we even begin addressing his agenda, is this: In what kind of society would he be a conservative?" - Joseph Sobran
Vi_Veri
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4/14/2010 7:53:19 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
Plus, there is no declared confidence. It could be an 80% confidence level for all you know. That would mean the statistic is useless with a report so close.
I could give a f about no haters as long as my ishes love me.
Xer
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4/14/2010 7:54:30 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 4/14/2010 7:52:09 PM, Vi_Veri wrote:
The statisticians on your source didn't report a margin of error so you have no backing to this claim. Ron Paul could be losing by 2-3%, even 5% without a declared margin of error. It makes the whole statistic look shady.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com...

"NOTE: Margin of Sampling Error, +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence"

The survey and statistics were on another page.
Vi_Veri
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4/14/2010 7:56:31 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 4/14/2010 7:54:30 PM, Nags wrote:
At 4/14/2010 7:52:09 PM, Vi_Veri wrote:
The statisticians on your source didn't report a margin of error so you have no backing to this claim. Ron Paul could be losing by 2-3%, even 5% without a declared margin of error. It makes the whole statistic look shady.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com...

"NOTE: Margin of Sampling Error, +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence"

The survey and statistics were on another page.

Then you can't say that Ron Paul is losing by 1%. With 6% undecided and a 3% margin of error, he needs more backing. He could easily lose. You should try finding a Gallop Poll on the issue (if they have one yet). They do 99% confidence levels. They are also the best at collecting an unbiased sample.
I could give a f about no haters as long as my ishes love me.
Volkov
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4/14/2010 7:57:48 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 4/14/2010 7:52:50 PM, Nags wrote:
There is no logical reason for them drastically changing the methodology as they did. It's disgusting.

Sure there is. They put in a GOP trend bias as part of their polling method. I've seen pollsters do it all the time. There isn't anything wrong with it, but it does skew the results. And as Vi said, there is no margin of error, no break down the results, etc. How can you sit there and blabber on about how Rasmussen is so godlike in its polls yet ignore the glaring factors and problems.

538 takes the data, uses a method, and says, here, this is what an average of the results without any funky trend bias is. Hell, they showed a generic GOP beating Obama. Is that really showing some bias there? 538 has no benefactors and has no bias for its data tables. Opinion articles? Sure. But don't cry foul when the data shows a different result, you partisan hack.
Xer
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4/14/2010 7:58:45 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 4/14/2010 7:56:31 PM, Vi_Veri wrote:
Then you can't say that Ron Paul is losing by 1%. With 6% undecided and a 3% margin of error, he needs more backing. He could easily lose.

Yes, I can say that. He's losing by 1% with a MOE of 3%. Obama could easily lose too.

You should try finding a Gallop Poll on the issue (if they have one yet). They do 99% confidence levels. They are also the best at collecting an unbiased sample.

http://www.fordham.edu...
Rasmussen is the most accurate.
Reasoning
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4/14/2010 7:59:18 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 4/14/2010 7:56:31 PM, Vi_Veri wrote:
Then you can't say that Ron Paul is losing by 1%. With 6% undecided and a 3% margin of error, he needs more backing. He could easily lose.

He could also easily win.
"What we really ought to ask the liberal, before we even begin addressing his agenda, is this: In what kind of society would he be a conservative?" - Joseph Sobran
Danielle
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4/14/2010 7:59:45 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 4/14/2010 7:53:13 PM, Reasoning wrote:

Hahaha so now you're relying on the intelligence of the masses?

He's right, sis. There ain't no denying it. You don't have to be extraordinarily intelligent to realize that one of them is full of ****.

Huh?
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Danielle
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4/14/2010 7:59:56 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 4/14/2010 7:59:18 PM, Reasoning wrote:
At 4/14/2010 7:56:31 PM, Vi_Veri wrote:
Then you can't say that Ron Paul is losing by 1%. With 6% undecided and a 3% margin of error, he needs more backing. He could easily lose.

He could also easily win.

Truth.
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Reasoning
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4/14/2010 8:01:03 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 4/14/2010 7:59:45 PM, theLwerd wrote:
Huh?

I had a Bridgeport moment.
"What we really ought to ask the liberal, before we even begin addressing his agenda, is this: In what kind of society would he be a conservative?" - Joseph Sobran
Xer
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4/14/2010 8:01:32 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 4/14/2010 7:57:48 PM, Volkov wrote:
Sure there is. They put in a GOP trend bias as part of their polling method. I've seen pollsters do it all the time. There isn't anything wrong with it, but it does skew the results. And as Vi said, there is no margin of error, no break down the results, etc. How can you sit there and blabber on about how Rasmussen is so godlike in its polls yet ignore the glaring factors and problems.

You not reading the article again...

538 takes the data, uses a method, and says, here, this is what an average of the results without any funky trend bias is.

They give their own subjective definition of bias and then radically change the methodology of the polling organization, regardless of how accurate the bias has shown to be.

Hell, they showed a generic GOP beating Obama. Is that really showing some bias there?

No. If you read all the polls, you would know that the GOP is winning the generic ballot.
http://realclearpolitics.com...

538 has no benefactors and has no bias for its data tables. Opinion articles? Sure. But don't cry foul when the data shows a different result,

So doesn't Rasmussen.

you partisan hack.

Ad hominem. You love these.