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The GOP Will Lose In 2016

jat93
Posts: 1,440
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11/4/2014 9:49:03 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
There is absolutely no way Republicans can take the White House in 2016, unless they get a serious rebranding effort going on (perhaps something like what Rand Paul is trying to do) and don't f*ck up their presumed control of Congress over the next 2 years. But the results of these congressional elections will only further doom their chances of a 2016 victory.

The Republicans' big problem is that the party is totally split. They've got to pander to far-right extremists during the Congressional elections, and during the primaries for the presidential nomination - because those are the most passionate Republicans who will be voting in those contests. But once they finally get to the general election, the Republican candidate has to do a huge backpedal from all the positions they and the entire Republican party have been pushing for the last few years, because they're so radically out of line with what the rest of the voting population - Democrats as well as most Republicans - want to see. Mitt Romney can attest to this process better than anyone.

Furthermore, this lack of unity is going to lead to one hell of a mess for Mitch McConnell to clean up in the Senate, where people like Ted Cruz have already indicated they will raise hell against him and make his Senate leadership miserable unless they use their congressional power to prosecute Obama for various "abuses of power", and continue to try to scrap away Obamacare bit by bit. Much of the conservative Republican group will support this enthusiastically; all the other Republicans will oppose it because they realize it's political suicide and they want to move on. Point is there will not be a united Republican Congress. If Republicans want a shot at the white house in 2016, they'd have to immediately unite behind an agenda that can shake off their image as a bunch of cranky corrupt dysfunctional Obama-hating Wall-street owned obstructionists. Since the Republican Party has in the past few years been defined solely by its staunch opposition to Barack Obama being President, I'd say the chances of this happening anytime soon are slim to none.

Contrast this with the Democrats, who are already positioning themselves firmly as the party of the middle class, the party talking about income inequality, the party on the side of the working people. They also have a candidate that the party could easily unite behind and get excited about. People will be more enthusiastic about Hillary than they are tired of Obama, and she's been doing a pretty good job at distancing herself from his legacy already - which is pretty astounding considering she served as his secretary of state.

Throw in some Clinton era nostalgia, and some demographic changes which help the Democrats at the expense of the GOP, and it's really no contest. The Democrats will trounce the Republicans in 2016, and I'd be surprised if the Republicans don't embarrass themselves even further in Congress. In fact, with demographic changes going the way they are, I really don't see how the Republicans can win a general election ever again.... Unless they pull a total 180 and convince the younger generation to get behind it. Maybe Rand Paul really is the GOP's best shot.
chaedd
Posts: 37
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11/7/2014 12:34:47 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
There is a way, Don't have primary elections, like they did in 2004. Have a public relations firm chose who will get the nomination.
This will free the republicans to register as democrats and vote in the democrat primaries. They can vote for the worst one.
Believe me the democrats will nominate a candidate who is so unelectable, even a republican can beat him.
Greyparrot
Posts: 14,250
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11/7/2014 4:33:19 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
Obama employer mandates kick in very soon. If the Republicans are smart, they will let that kettle boil on over to an easy GOP prez win. Then 2016 will be a repeal year.
slo1
Posts: 4,320
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11/7/2014 5:14:57 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/7/2014 4:33:19 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
Obama employer mandates kick in very soon. If the Republicans are smart, they will let that kettle boil on over to an easy GOP prez win. Then 2016 will be a repeal year.

Smart?

There is a small problem. The GOP will never take away the ACA mandates which the people are fond of, such as no exclusions on pre-existing conditions or allowing adult children to remain on parents policies.

When they try to snip the ACA into bits they will make a bigger mess of it. They also will never touch altering health care so that it is out of the employer's hands.

If they leave employer mandates in because of Obama veto, they might be surprised the effect is modest since it only pertains to companies of 50 or more and once you get up to firms of 200 they almost all offer health insurance anyway.
Conservative101
Posts: 191
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11/7/2014 6:59:54 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
Actually, I'd say the opposite. In this election, Democrats kept trying to distance themselves from Obama, who has a remarkably low approval rating and unpopular policies. If he continues in the way he's going, the public opinion about him isn't going to change that much. We saw Democrats get slashed in this election; I doubt they can make a comeback unless Obama makes a noticeable turnaround.
When in doubt, start riots and scream racism
Fly
Posts: 2,044
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11/7/2014 7:31:25 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/7/2014 6:59:54 PM, Conservative101 wrote:
Actually, I'd say the opposite. In this election, Democrats kept trying to distance themselves from Obama, who has a remarkably low approval rating and unpopular policies. If he continues in the way he's going, the public opinion about him isn't going to change that much. We saw Democrats get slashed in this election; I doubt they can make a comeback unless Obama makes a noticeable turnaround.

And we see how well their "distance myself from the president" strategy worked. It made them appear to be ashamed to be Democrats. It reminds me of when Dukakis kept insisting that he was not a liberal; he also lost, by the way. Instead, they should have emphasized the positives of the current presidency.

Congress has a much lower approval rating than the president. If they accomplish good things, they help make the president look good, much like Clinton and the Repub congress. If they don't accomplish good things, they mainly make themselves look bad.

Anyway, midterm elections usually do favor the Repubs. Republicans make very conscientious voters. That is a very great fault of non Repub voters. They don't seem to think that congressional elections matter that much.
"You don't have a right to be a jerk."
--Religion Forum's hypocrite extraordinaire serving up lulz