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Va 6th district...

comoncents
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6/13/2010 4:24:41 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
I am having a hard time figuring out who to help campaigning.

I have U.S. Rep. Bob Goodlatte, Libertarian Stuart Bain, and Center Party founder Jeff Vanke

Any opinions. No dem is running.
http://www.roanoke.com...

http://bobgoodlatte.com...
http://bainforcongress.org...
http://jeffvanke.com...

Anyone help?
I like Bain but what is the reality of him winning?
Volkov
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6/13/2010 5:26:37 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 6/13/2010 4:24:41 PM, comoncents wrote:
I like Bain but what is the reality of him winning?

About one in a few million.

That doesn't mean you can't help out, but I mean, what is the point really? Only the Democrats would put up any sort of fight in such a race (unless this Center Party thing proves to be anything, which I highly doubt), and if there is no Dem running, then Goodlatte is assured a win.

I'd think it would be more worth your while to volunteer in municipal races, since there is also no Senatorial and Gubernatorial elections. They'll probably be more competitive - maybe.
stbain
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6/14/2010 9:25:35 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 6/13/2010 4:24:41 PM, comoncents wrote:
I am having a hard time figuring out who to help campaigning.


I have U.S. Rep. Bob Goodlatte, Libertarian Stuart Bain, and Center Party founder Jeff Vanke

Any opinions. No dem is running.
http://www.roanoke.com...


http://bobgoodlatte.com...
http://bainforcongress.org...
http://jeffvanke.com...


Anyone help?
I like Bain but what is the reality of him winning?

I say go for that Bain guy, but then again I am a little biased.

The reality of me winning is much, MUCH higher now that it is confirmed there is no (D) on the ballot. We ran the numbers based on the empirical data and found that it's more or less a toss up now between Goodlatte and myself.

As for the campaign direction, we are waiting to hear back from the State Board of Elections with the certification of the signatures we submitted last Tuesday. Once we hear back from them, it's on! You haven't heard much from the campaign specifically because we didn't want much publicity. A few newspaper articles slipped through, but aside from that we did everything we could to NOT raise much of an awareness simply because we didn't want the Democrats to file a candidate at the last second to try and take advantage of a split conservative vote.

My campaign is one of only TWO Libertarian Party candidate campaigns in the entire country with a shot at winning. We expect there will probably be some national attention on the two races given the emergence of the libertarian-rooted Tea Party movements and the nationwide anti-incumbent sentiment. The other LP candidate with a "winnable" race is Jim Prindle's campaign in Texas' 4th district. We have some campaign events scheduled for this coming weekend. If you're interested in attending, please let me know.

Thanks for your support, and Semper Fi!

-- Stuart Bain
http://bainforcongress.org...
stbain
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6/14/2010 9:29:48 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
By the way... I meant one of two U.S. congressional campaigns. I'm sure there are hundreds of Libertarians running across the country with very high probabilities of winning (including a few incumbents!).

Thanks again!

-- Stuart
Volkov
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6/14/2010 9:35:01 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 6/14/2010 9:25:35 AM, stbain wrote:
-- Stuart Bain
http://bainforcongress.org...

Interesting...

So, let's say you actually are Mr. Bain (which I'm not saying you aren't, but, you know, given the nature of the internet). You actually believe you have a shot at winning this race? When no other Libertarian candidate can manage to even come close, and are only high up when the GOP candidate either doesn't exist or is faltering?

I mean, no offense, but by all accounts, you're pretty far from managing a win, or even something "close." If there was any inkling that there was a huge groundswell campaign for your candidacy, pundits from across America would have picked up on it already. They all love the idea of a third-party win. Look at the excitement over Doug Hoffman's campaign in NY-23 in 2009 special election.

Where does this "empirical data" come from which shows your campaign running up numbers anywhere close to Goodlatte, who is a popular conservative incumbent? Are you poaching voters from the Democrats? From new or non-voters? Where are these votes coming from? You'll have to explain these things before anyone can believe what you're saying, Mr. Bain.
comoncents
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6/14/2010 9:39:39 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 6/13/2010 5:26:37 PM, Volkov wrote:
At 6/13/2010 4:24:41 PM, comoncents wrote:
I like Bain but what is the reality of him winning?

About one in a few million.

That doesn't mean you can't help out, but I mean, what is the point really? Only the Democrats would put up any sort of fight in such a race (unless this Center Party thing proves to be anything, which I highly doubt), and if there is no Dem running, then Goodlatte is assured a win.


Yep. That is what I thought.

I'd think it would be more worth your while to volunteer in municipal races, since there is also no Senatorial and Gubernatorial elections. They'll probably be more competitive - maybe.

Yeah. Thanks man.
comoncents
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6/14/2010 9:42:56 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 6/14/2010 9:25:35 AM, stbain wrote:
At 6/13/2010 4:24:41 PM, comoncents wrote:
I am having a hard time figuring out who to help campaigning.


I have U.S. Rep. Bob Goodlatte, Libertarian Stuart Bain, and Center Party founder Jeff Vanke

Any opinions. No dem is running.
http://www.roanoke.com...


http://bobgoodlatte.com...
http://bainforcongress.org...
http://jeffvanke.com...


Anyone help?
I like Bain but what is the reality of him winning?

I say go for that Bain guy, but then again I am a little biased.


Wow. You move fast.

The reality of me winning is much, MUCH higher now that it is confirmed there is no (D) on the ballot. We ran the numbers based on the empirical data and found that it's more or less a toss up now between Goodlatte and myself.


Yes but the people here love Goodlatte. Not his party but they trust him as an individual.

As for the campaign direction, we are waiting to hear back from the State Board of Elections with the certification of the signatures we submitted last Tuesday. Once we hear back from them, it's on! You haven't heard much from the campaign specifically because we didn't want much publicity. A few newspaper articles slipped through, but aside from that we did everything we could to NOT raise much of an awareness simply because we didn't want the Democrats to file a candidate at the last second to try and take advantage of a split conservative vote.

My campaign is one of only TWO Libertarian Party candidate campaigns in the entire country with a shot at winning.

I hope. And I want to help you, but...

We expect there will probably be some national attention on the two races given the emergence of the libertarian-rooted Tea Party movements and the nationwide anti-incumbent sentiment. The other LP candidate with a "winnable" race is Jim Prindle's campaign in Texas' 4th district. We have some campaign events scheduled for this coming weekend. If you're interested in attending, please let me know.

Thanks for your support, and Semper Fi!

-- Stuart Bain
http://bainforcongress.org...
comoncents
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6/14/2010 9:46:39 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 6/14/2010 9:35:01 AM, Volkov wrote:
At 6/14/2010 9:25:35 AM, stbain wrote:
-- Stuart Bain
http://bainforcongress.org...

Interesting...

So, let's say you actually are Mr. Bain

I have written him and that is the way he writes. It is even his closing, not saying that someone could have looked it up putting two plus two together but that is a lot of work for something so small.

(which I'm not saying you aren't, but, you know, given the nature of the internet). You actually believe you have a shot at winning this race? When no other Libertarian candidate can manage to even come close, and are only high up when the GOP candidate either doesn't exist or is faltering?


Yeah. I would like to know the same.

I mean, no offense, but by all accounts, you're pretty far from managing a win, or even something "close." If there was any inkling that there was a huge groundswell campaign for your candidacy, pundits from across America would have picked up on it already. They all love the idea of a third-party win. Look at the excitement over Doug Hoffman's campaign in NY-23 in 2009 special election.


Good point.
Mr. Bain, if you want to convince people here you have to work hard and get ready for some opposition/ questioning.

Where does this "empirical data" come from which shows your campaign running up numbers anywhere close to Goodlatte, who is a popular conservative incumbent? Are you poaching voters from the Democrats? From new or non-voters? Where are these votes coming from? You'll have to explain these things before anyone can believe what you're saying, Mr. Bain.
stbain
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6/14/2010 10:02:11 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
Verified my identity via a DM to the OP on Twitter.

You actually believe you have a shot at winning this race? When no other Libertarian candidate can manage to even come close, and are only high up when the GOP candidate either doesn't exist or is faltering?

Yes.

I mean, no offense, but by all accounts, you're pretty far from managing a win, or even something "close." If there was any inkling that there was a huge groundswell campaign for your candidacy, pundits from across America would have picked up on it already. They all love the idea of a third-party win. Look at the excitement over Doug Hoffman's campaign in NY-23 in 2009 special election.

They didn't pick up on it because we didn't want them to (yet). Like I said, now that we've confirmed the lack of a Democrat in the race (filing deadline was last Tuesday), we are waiting for the petition signatures to be counted and then we will start to "campaign" along the lines of what you would expect from most campaigns. We did everything we could to ensure there would NOT be a Democrat on the ballot. That would have ruined my chances and resulted in me getting between 5% and 10% of the vote. Now that the (D) option is off the table, my chances are much better. Having confirmed we now have a real shot at winning, we do anticipate a groundswell of support and pundit attention once we start the campaign machine rolling.

Where does this "empirical data" come from which shows your campaign running up numbers anywhere close to Goodlatte, who is a popular conservative incumbent?

Historical voting data (by precinct) is available from the State Board of Elections.

Are you poaching voters from the Democrats?

Some, although there's not much to poach here. I do have the full support of some key local Democrats.

From new or non-voters?

We do expect to get some new and non-voters out to the polls. There is a pretty good turnout rate in this district already, but we are finding that some of the younger crowds agree with the platform and are starting to come on board. We'll see how it turns out.

Where are these votes coming from?

There are several categories of voters we looked into. Some we realize will support Goodlatte no matter what. Some have always seen him as the lesser of two evils and voted for him because of that. We're finding that many of these voters are very happy to finally have another option that better fits their views. Based on the numbers we crunched, we found that a properly run campaign will give us a fighting chance.

You'll have to explain these things before anyone can believe what you're saying, Mr. Bain.

I will certainly be happy try and explain everything to the best of my ability. Thank you for your time!

Semper Fi,

-- Stuart Bain
http://bainforcongress.org...
comoncents
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6/14/2010 10:08:02 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 6/14/2010 10:02:11 AM, stbain wrote:


They didn't pick up on it because we didn't want them to (yet). Like I said, now that we've confirmed the lack of a Democrat in the race (filing deadline was last Tuesday), we are waiting for the petition signatures to be counted and then we will start to "campaign" along the lines of what you would expect from most campaigns. We did everything we could to ensure there would NOT be a Democrat on the ballot. That would have ruined my chances and resulted in me getting between 5% and 10% of the vote. Now that the (D) option is off the table, my chances are much better.

But some would say that the centrist guy will act as a D on the ballot.
Volkov
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6/14/2010 10:14:13 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 6/14/2010 10:02:11 AM, stbain wrote:
Yes.

I admire your optimism, Mr. Bain.

They didn't pick up on it because we didn't want them to (yet). Like I said, now that we've confirmed the lack of a Democrat in the race (filing deadline was last Tuesday), we are waiting for the petition signatures to be counted and then we will start to "campaign" along the lines of what you would expect from most campaigns. We did everything we could to ensure there would NOT be a Democrat on the ballot. That would have ruined my chances and resulted in me getting between 5% and 10% of the vote. Now that the (D) option is off the table, my chances are much better. Having confirmed we now have a real shot at winning, we do anticipate a groundswell of support and pundit attention once we start the campaign machine rolling.

Oh, you didn't want them to know. I get it.

Well, given two weeks time, we'll come back to this. If you're a gambler, Mr. Bain, I'll gladly take any bets as to your position in that time.

Historical voting data (by precinct) is available from the State Board of Elections.

Voting data which is messed up by the fact that the Democrats, for the past two decades, haven't had many candidates. Besides, what would this prove exactly? I need specifics, please.

Some, although there's not much to poach here. I do have the full support of some key local Democrats.

Like?

We do expect to get some new and non-voters out to the polls. There is a pretty good turnout rate in this district already, but we are finding that some of the younger crowds agree with the platform and are starting to come on board. We'll see how it turns out.

Indeed.

To point out, there were quite a few of the "younger crowd" who essentially swooned over President Obama, yet turnout rate was still fairly low for their age bracket. I would not rely on them.

There are several categories of voters we looked into. Some we realize will support Goodlatte no matter what. Some have always seen him as the lesser of two evils and voted for him because of that. We're finding that many of these voters are very happy to finally have another option that better fits their views. Based on the numbers we crunched, we found that a properly run campaign will give us a fighting chance.

A properly run campaign, which in politicianese means "money, God and gaffes."

Do you have the money to run this campaign? Do you have the volunteers? The name recognition? The record that can compare against Rep. Goodlatte's already conservative economics? Endorsements?
Volkov
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6/14/2010 10:16:46 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 6/14/2010 10:08:02 AM, comoncents wrote:
But some would say that the centrist guy will act as a D on the ballot.

I doubt it will have any real effect, unless he really gains some momentum and name recognition. This isn't like Doug Hoffman, who was high profile and was in a much more widely recognized third party, as well as receiving roaring endorsements from major Republicans.
comoncents
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6/14/2010 10:18:53 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 6/14/2010 10:14:13 AM, Volkov wrote:

Do you have the money to run this campaign? Do you have the volunteers? The name recognition? The record that can compare against Rep. Goodlatte's already conservative economics? Endorsements?

All great questions that I have my self and I am a voter in roanoke county.
I could be a supporter and volunteer for a lot.
stbain
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6/14/2010 10:21:47 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 6/14/2010 10:08:02 AM, comoncents wrote:

But some would say that the centrist guy will act as a D on the ballot.

Under Commonwealth of Virginia law, Mr. Vanke will show up as an Independent regardless of his stated party affiliation. Mr. Vanke is a very nice gentleman, and I do see him getting a small portion of the vote based on his views on certain items; however, I don't foresee him capturing a significant portion of the vote as if he were the substitute for the Democrat candidate.

Semper Fi,

-- Stuart
comoncents
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6/14/2010 10:25:11 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 6/14/2010 10:21:47 AM, stbain wrote:
At 6/14/2010 10:08:02 AM, comoncents wrote:

But some would say that the centrist guy will act as a D on the ballot.

Under Commonwealth of Virginia law, Mr. Vanke will show up as an Independent regardless of his stated party affiliation. Mr. Vanke is a very nice gentleman, and I do see him getting a small portion of the vote based on his views on certain items; however, I don't foresee him capturing a significant portion of the vote as if he were the substitute for the Democrat candidate.

Semper Fi,

-- Stuart

Here is a sad but relevant question here in Salem/Roanoke County.

Virginia Tech or UVA?
comoncents
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6/14/2010 10:28:21 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
Hey Volkov,

Thats him. He just hit me up on twitter and confirmed with out me even asking.

It is really him.

"bainforcongress
Yes, that's me on debate.org."

35 min ago.
comoncents
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6/14/2010 10:30:30 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 6/14/2010 10:28:21 AM, comoncents wrote:
Hey Volkov,

Thats him. He just hit me up on twitter and confirmed with out me even asking.

It is really him.


"bainforcongress
Yes, that's me on debate.org."

35 min ago.

I have also talked with him on the phone. He seem legit. Like he is not going away. I still see the chances being low but I may deviate from Goodlatte and support Mr. Bain. I just do not know him like I know... congressmen Ron Pauls political positions.
Volkov
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6/14/2010 10:31:30 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 6/14/2010 10:30:30 AM, comoncents wrote:
I have also talked with him on the phone. He seem legit. Like he is not going away. I still see the chances being low but I may deviate from Goodlatte and support Mr. Bain. I just do not know him like I know... congressmen Ron Pauls political positions.

Maybe you should talk with Mr. Goodlatte, before you make a decision, eh?
comoncents
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6/14/2010 10:33:15 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 6/14/2010 10:31:30 AM, Volkov wrote:
At 6/14/2010 10:30:30 AM, comoncents wrote:
I have also talked with him on the phone. He seem legit. Like he is not going away. I still see the chances being low but I may deviate from Goodlatte and support Mr. Bain. I just do not know him like I know... congressmen Ron Pauls political positions.

Maybe you should talk with Mr. Goodlatte, before you make a decision, eh?

I have tried. I got Ron Paul to talk to me before I could even get Mr. Goodlatte to return my emails.

I m really getting upset about it.

Hell, the dem senators write me back faster, and they call me to talk about my emails.
stbain
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6/14/2010 10:36:30 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 6/14/2010 10:14:13 AM, Volkov wrote:
At 6/14/2010 10:02:11 AM, stbain wrote:
Yes.

I admire your optimism, Mr. Bain.


Thank you :)

Oh, you didn't want them to know. I get it.

Well, given two weeks time, we'll come back to this. If you're a gambler, Mr. Bain, I'll gladly take any bets as to your position in that time.


No bets just yet! We recognize this is a long shot and that it will be an uphill fight, especially in this off-year election where less people really pay attention. We'll have to see how it goes!

Historical voting data (by precinct) is available from the State Board of Elections.

Voting data which is messed up by the fact that the Democrats, for the past two decades, haven't had many candidates. Besides, what would this prove exactly? I need specifics, please.


We summarized the data by determining the (d) vote, the "anti-Goodlatte" vote, the swing vote, etc. There is a bit of subjectivity involved, but we did our best to try and stay true to "reality."

Some, although there's not much to poach here. I do have the full support of some key local Democrats.

Like?


I'm not at liberty to mention at this time, but we are working on getting the official endorsements written up and uploaded to the website.


Indeed.

To point out, there were quite a few of the "younger crowd" who essentially swooned over President Obama, yet turnout rate was still fairly low for their age bracket. I would not rely on them.


I'll have to look into those numbers and see what my campaign staff can come up with. Unfortunately, I don't think our data includes age demographics. Thanks for the heads up!


A properly run campaign, which in politicianese means "money, God and gaffes."

Do you have the money to run this campaign?

I don't personally (I am not independently wealthy like Rep. Goodlatte), but we will.

Do you have the volunteers?

Yes, they're starting to come on board pretty fast now.

The name recognition?

Getting there! It's a dual battle on that front. The number one question I get asked is whether I am a Republican or a Democrat. In addition to name recognition for myself, I sometimes have to explain the principles of Liberty and the Libertarian Party.

The record that can compare against Rep. Goodlatte's already conservative economics?

I don't have a voting record because I'm not a politician. I'm a businessman. However, I consider myself more conservative than Goodlatte when it comes to economics.

(Are we talking about the same Rep. Goodlatte who voted to expand Medicare? Conservative?)

Endorsements?

In the works. We have a few local businesses as well as some liberty-oriented groups we're working with.
Volkov
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6/14/2010 10:37:04 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 6/14/2010 10:33:15 AM, comoncents wrote:
I have tried. I got Ron Paul to talk to me before I could even get Mr. Goodlatte to return my emails.

I m really getting upset about it.

Hell, the dem senators write me back faster, and they call me to talk about my emails.

You can do one of three things, in this case:

1. Do what I do, and send a very strongly worded e-mail or phone call

2. Do what I also do, and go down to their campaign office

3. Say "f*ck it," and cross Goodlatte off the list. But, don't just fall for Mr. Bain either.
stbain
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6/14/2010 10:38:40 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 6/14/2010 10:30:30 AM, comoncents wrote:
At 6/14/2010 10:28:21 AM, comoncents wrote:
Hey Volkov,

Thats him. He just hit me up on twitter and confirmed with out me even asking.

It is really him.


"bainforcongress
Yes, that's me on debate.org."

35 min ago.

I have also talked with him on the phone. He seem legit. Like he is not going away. I still see the chances being low but I may deviate from Goodlatte and support Mr. Bain. I just do not know him like I know... congressmen Ron Pauls political positions.

Congressman Paul's positions and mine are practically identical.
comoncents
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6/14/2010 10:41:09 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 6/14/2010 10:38:40 AM, stbain wrote:
At 6/14/2010 10:30:30 AM, comoncents wrote:
At 6/14/2010 10:28:21 AM, comoncents wrote:
Hey Volkov,

Thats him. He just hit me up on twitter and confirmed with out me even asking.

It is really him.


"bainforcongress
Yes, that's me on debate.org."

35 min ago.

I have also talked with him on the phone. He seem legit. Like he is not going away. I still see the chances being low but I may deviate from Goodlatte and support Mr. Bain. I just do not know him like I know... congressmen Ron Pauls political positions.

Congressman Paul's positions and mine are practically identical.

Where do you differ. I get emails from him since we had a phone interview together.
stbain
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6/14/2010 10:41:15 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
My lunch break is coming to an end, but I will be sure to check back later this evening after I get back from an LP meeting in Lynchburg. Thank you both for the questions and the interest in the race. I do hope to get your support, Daniel! Let me know.

Semper Fi,

-- Stuart
Volkov
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6/14/2010 10:42:56 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 6/14/2010 10:36:30 AM, stbain wrote:
We summarized the data by determining the (d) vote, the "anti-Goodlatte" vote, the swing vote, etc. There is a bit of subjectivity involved, but we did our best to try and stay true to "reality."

Alright, fair enough.

Have you commissioned a professional poll?

I'll have to look into those numbers and see what my campaign staff can come up with. Unfortunately, I don't think our data includes age demographics. Thanks for the heads up!

Do me a favour and don't mention it to the Green Party of Canada - its better they don't know.

I don't personally (I am not independently wealthy like Rep. Goodlatte), but we will.

Through, what, corporate donations? Individual, grassroots donors? What is your fundraising strategy?

Getting there! It's a dual battle on that front. The number one question I get asked is whether I am a Republican or a Democrat. In addition to name recognition for myself, I sometimes have to explain the principles of Liberty and the Libertarian Party.

Yeah, I'd suspect that would happen with a minor party such as the Libertarians.

(Are we talking about the same Rep. Goodlatte who voted to expand Medicare? Conservative?)

We are. But from what I know of Goodlatte, he's also proposed several amendments and ideas about how to control spending. Seems like somewhat of a fiscal hawk to me.

In the works. We have a few local businesses as well as some liberty-oriented groups we're working with.

I don't want to tell you how to run your campaign, Mr. Bain, but I do hope you get some larger endorsements.

As well, "liberty oriented groups"?

I'm also sorry if I seem intrusive into your campaign. I'm personally involved in politics north of the border and I know how to analyze these things fairly well, I think. I'm just generally curious as to the plan.
stbain
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6/14/2010 10:43:58 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
Where do you differ. I get emails from him since we had a phone interview together.

OK, time for one more before I get back to it....

A couple of small differences...

I was in the military, so I now we can't just pack up an walk right out of the situations in Iraq and Afghanistan. The withdrawal has to be done responsibly.

I support repealing federal drug laws and ending the war on drugs, but I think realistic laws set at the state level (thus allowing people to "vote with their feet") make sense.
comoncents
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6/14/2010 10:44:50 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 6/14/2010 10:37:04 AM, Volkov wrote:
At 6/14/2010 10:33:15 AM, comoncents wrote:
I have tried. I got Ron Paul to talk to me before I could even get Mr. Goodlatte to return my emails.

I m really getting upset about it.

Hell, the dem senators write me back faster, and they call me to talk about my emails.

You can do one of three things, in this case:

1. Do what I do, and send a very strongly worded e-mail or phone call

I have. I have even gone to twitter b/c it has been soooo long. I have sent him 3 strongly worded e-mail.


2. Do what I also do, and go down to their campaign office

I should but his stances and mine are far. I stand closer to Mr. Bain.

3. Say "f*ck it," and cross Goodlatte off the list. But, don't just fall for Mr. Bain either.

I am about to. I am about to buy a Stuart Bain tee shirt and where it at myrtle beach all next week. A lot of people from salem are coming up... Like 20.
I wish I would have known about them earlier.

I am going to take a look at the centrist guy.