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Thoughts on the UK General Election

bsh1
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4/20/2015 2:19:43 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Intro and Questions

The UK General Election is happening on May the 7th. Below I've linked some opinion polling that's been done for the election if you're interested, as well as four polls on DDO I would appreciate you voting on.

I have four questions: which party will get the most seats in Parliament? Who will be Prime Minister? Which minor parties (Plaid Cymru, UKIP, Green, Lib Dem, or SNP) do you think will benefit most and why? And, will this election single the end of 2-party politics in the UK?

Also, on a less predicative note, if you're voting in the election, who do you think you'll be voting for and why? And, for anyone whether or not they're in the UK, who do you think should win?

Opinion Polling

http://en.wikipedia.org...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk...
http://www.bbc.com...
http://may2015.com...

DDO Polls

http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

Thanks for sharing your thoughts...!
Live Long and Prosper

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bsh1
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4/20/2015 2:41:23 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Bump.
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bsh1
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4/20/2015 5:41:12 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
An interesting article: http://www.economist.com...
Live Long and Prosper

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"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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bsh1
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4/20/2015 5:45:38 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
A really, really interesting article: http://www.theguardian.com...
Live Long and Prosper

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"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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1harderthanyouthink
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4/20/2015 5:54:04 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
I had a thread about this already. -_-
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And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

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bsh1
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4/20/2015 6:19:45 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 4/20/2015 5:54:04 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
I had a thread about this already. -_-

I'm sorry...I didn't see it...
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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1harderthanyouthink
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4/20/2015 6:20:04 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 4/20/2015 6:19:45 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 4/20/2015 5:54:04 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
I had a thread about this already. -_-

I'm sorry...I didn't see it...

Lol
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

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bsh1
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4/20/2015 6:20:06 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 4/20/2015 5:54:04 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
I had a thread about this already. -_-

What are your thoughts, though?
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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1harderthanyouthink
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4/20/2015 6:21:40 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 4/20/2015 6:20:06 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 4/20/2015 5:54:04 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
I had a thread about this already. -_-

What are your thoughts, though?

I don't know much about it - that's why I tried to generate conversation about it.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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1harderthanyouthink
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4/20/2015 6:24:34 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 4/20/2015 6:21:40 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 4/20/2015 6:20:06 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 4/20/2015 5:54:04 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
I had a thread about this already. -_-

What are your thoughts, though?

I don't know much about it - that's why I tried to generate conversation about it.

Though from what I gather from the polls the majority of seats will be almost evenly split between Labour and Conservative, and then a few going to the other parties.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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bsh1
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4/20/2015 6:25:44 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 4/20/2015 6:21:40 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 4/20/2015 6:20:06 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 4/20/2015 5:54:04 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
I had a thread about this already. -_-

What are your thoughts, though?

I don't know much about it - that's why I tried to generate conversation about it.

Oh...My prediction is that the SNP sweeps in Scotland, and forces Labour to form an informal coalition with them, Plaid Cymru, and/or the Greens. The Lib Dems might get in on the coalition action too.

It will be super hard for the Tories to form a coalition, since their only natural coalition partners are UKIP and the Lib Dems. Plaid Cymru and the SNP have already explicitly ruled out any deals with the Tories, which would leave the Tories about 20 seats short of a majority.

If Miliband cannot get a deal with SNP, though, in all likelihood parliament will be dissolved and fresh elections will be held in mid-summer.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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1harderthanyouthink
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4/20/2015 6:34:11 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
The more UKIP wins, the more Conservative loses, and the greater chance of Labour/SNP or Lib Dem and all left-leaning parties but SNP, if Miliband wants to snub them.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

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ESocialBookworm
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4/20/2015 6:35:23 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
I don't know anything about UK elections 0-0
Solonkr~
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bsh1
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4/20/2015 6:45:26 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 4/20/2015 6:34:11 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
The more UKIP wins, the more Conservative loses, and the greater chance of Labour/SNP or Lib Dem and all left-leaning parties but SNP, if Miliband wants to snub them.

If he snubs SNP, he won't be able to form a coalition. He needs them to support him in a vote of confidence after the Queen's Speech if he wants to be PM.

Using math from one of the articles I posted, suppose Miliband gets 27 Lib Dem votes, 1 Green vote, and 15 of the 21 miscellaneous votes, he would still be 14 votes short of a majority (326 seats is a majority). That would result in a dissolution of parliament for a second time in one year, and fresh elections held in July (or August). Miliband absolutely NEEDS SNP support to be PM. If he gets their support, he wouldn't need both the Lib Dems and the 16 miscellaneous/greens to support him, he would only need one or the other. That makes the SNP the kingmaker.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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bsh1
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4/20/2015 6:46:41 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 4/20/2015 6:35:23 PM, ESocialBookworm wrote:
I don't know anything about UK elections 0-0

Lol...I figure most users here don't. I am just wonky...
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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1harderthanyouthink
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4/20/2015 6:49:07 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 4/20/2015 6:45:26 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 4/20/2015 6:34:11 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
The more UKIP wins, the more Conservative loses, and the greater chance of Labour/SNP or Lib Dem and all left-leaning parties but SNP, if Miliband wants to snub them.

If he snubs SNP, he won't be able to form a coalition. He needs them to support him in a vote of confidence after the Queen's Speech if he wants to be PM.

Using math from one of the articles I posted, suppose Miliband gets 27 Lib Dem votes, 1 Green vote, and 15 of the 21 miscellaneous votes, he would still be 14 votes short of a majority (326 seats is a majority). That would result in a dissolution of parliament for a second time in one year, and fresh elections held in July (or August). Miliband absolutely NEEDS SNP support to be PM. If he gets their support, he wouldn't need both the Lib Dems and the 16 miscellaneous/greens to support him, he would only need one or the other. That makes the SNP the kingmaker.

From what I've read, Labour is projected at around 280. If Lib Dem is able to hold their ground better than expected, SNP could be snubbed.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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bsh1
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4/20/2015 6:52:18 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 4/20/2015 6:49:07 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 4/20/2015 6:45:26 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 4/20/2015 6:34:11 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
The more UKIP wins, the more Conservative loses, and the greater chance of Labour/SNP or Lib Dem and all left-leaning parties but SNP, if Miliband wants to snub them.

If he snubs SNP, he won't be able to form a coalition. He needs them to support him in a vote of confidence after the Queen's Speech if he wants to be PM.

Using math from one of the articles I posted, suppose Miliband gets 27 Lib Dem votes, 1 Green vote, and 15 of the 21 miscellaneous votes, he would still be 14 votes short of a majority (326 seats is a majority). That would result in a dissolution of parliament for a second time in one year, and fresh elections held in July (or August). Miliband absolutely NEEDS SNP support to be PM. If he gets their support, he wouldn't need both the Lib Dems and the 16 miscellaneous/greens to support him, he would only need one or the other. That makes the SNP the kingmaker.

From what I've read, Labour is projected at around 280. If Lib Dem is able to hold their ground better than expected, SNP could be snubbed.

I think 270 is probably a better projection for Labour, primarily because they will be absolutely crushed in Scotland, and that's becoming apparent. 54 out of 59 seats are solidly SNP at this point, and another 2 constituencies are swing. The SNP could gain 50 seats on May 7th, the vast majority of which it would take from Labour. So, any Labour gains elsewhere are going to be heavily offset by SNP gains. I am dubious of the notion that Labour could hit 280.

Also, the Lib Dems have virtually collapsed in the polls, and I think even 27 seats is a generous estimate. I would've put it closer to 22 or 23 seats.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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bsh1
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4/20/2015 6:56:06 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
*The SNP could easily net gain 50, with a total of 54.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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TN05
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4/21/2015 10:58:28 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 4/20/2015 2:19:43 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Intro and Questions

The UK General Election is happening on May the 7th. Below I've linked some opinion polling that's been done for the election if you're interested, as well as four polls on DDO I would appreciate you voting on.

I have four questions: which party will get the most seats in Parliament?

I think UKIP will fade a little down the stretch and SNP will sweep Scotland, so the Conservatives will have a very narrow (and fairly useless) lead.

Who will be Prime Minister?

In all likelihood, Ed Milliband. The coalition partners are far more welcoming to his side.

Which minor parties (Plaid Cymru, UKIP, Green, Lib Dem, or SNP) do you think will benefit most and why?

The big winners regardless will be SNP and DUP - they are the kingmakers for Labour and the Conservatives, respectively. The influence of Greens and UKIP will be limited as they might, at most, only have 5 seats or so. The Lib Dems will continue their decline and would coalition with anyone.

And, will this election single the end of 2-party politics in the UK?

If the rise of UKIP is permanent, yes, this will be the end of the three-party system. Something like alternative vote will have to be enacted to keep government stable.

Also, on a less predicative note, if you're voting in the election, who do you think you'll be voting for and why? And, for anyone whether or not they're in the UK, who do you think should win?

I would vote Conservative as the the threat of a far-left Labour/Lib Dem/GreenSNP/Plaid Cymru alliance outweighs wasting a vote on a party that might win five seats at most.

Opinion Polling

http://en.wikipedia.org...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk...
http://www.bbc.com...
http://may2015.com...

DDO Polls

http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

Thanks for sharing your thoughts...!
TN05
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4/21/2015 11:01:33 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Also, it's absurd UKIP might get 10% of the vote and only a few seats, while SNP could get less than 5% and have 50 seats.
EndarkenedRationalist
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4/21/2015 11:36:28 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
It's interesting that the Lib Dema are backsliding so far, considering they're the only reason the UK is a 2.5 party system rather than a 2 party system. I blame the referendum.
Dilara
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4/21/2015 9:37:41 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Can someone explain to me how the U.Ks government works. Who's the head of it, how is he/she appointed, what other positions are there in government, what do people who have the major positions do and how often do they get elected, what are the major parties and what are the political views of the major parties, what are the minor parties and what are their political views and what percent of British people vote for each party. If someone could answer at least some of those questions that would be great.
Dilara
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4/21/2015 9:38:24 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Can someone explain to me how the U.Ks government works. Who's the head of it, how is he/she appointed, what other positions are there in government, what do people who have the major positions do and how often do they get elected, what are the major parties and what are the political views of the major parties, what are the minor parties and what are their political views and what percent of British people vote for each party. If someone could answer at least some of those questions that would be great. Thanks!
Nivek
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4/22/2015 3:19:27 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 4/21/2015 11:01:33 AM, TN05 wrote:
Also, it's absurd UKIP might get 10% of the vote and only a few seats, while SNP could get less than 5% and have 50 seats.

I think yougov had them at 19% but the projected seats are still 2, including mark reckless and that other passive defective mp. Farage might also lose his seat in South Thanet so they still have a tough mountain to climb. Besides, Lib Dems faced the same plight during the 2010 elections, as they had 33% of overall votes just by 'having a third party leader' in a televised debate. Yet, they lost 6 seats in total.

I don't know, perhaps the polls are trolling. We'll see soon enough.
Nivek
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4/22/2015 3:43:47 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 4/20/2015 2:19:43 PM, bsh1 wrote:
The UK General Election is happening on May the 7th.....

I have four questions: which party will get the most seats in Parliament?
Probably Labour, all about the NHS.

Who will be Prime Minister?
I never liked a Cameron/Farage mix, worst of the worst so anything besides them, I'm fine with

Which minor parties (Plaid Cymru, UKIP, Green, Lib Dem, or SNP) do you think will :benefit most and why?
Assuming UKIP can carry the 'victim' and the 'populist' card long enough, they might benefit the most. SNP's current leader had no character whatsoever, shouting here and there, Alex Salmond shouldn't have resigned

And, will this election single the end of 2-party politics in the UK?
Probably not, Labour and Conservative just needs another 'Nigel Farage' in action. Besides most socialist i know aren't even close to voting labour.

Also, on a less predicative note, if you're voting in the election, who do you think you'll be voting for and why? And, for anyone whether or not they're in the UK, who do you think should win?
Labour in Euro Elections and Labour in General Election. I'm voting out of spite just to fight off the purple revolution

Finally, A UK thread.....haha thanks for this.
RyryMase
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4/22/2015 3:49:00 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
As an American, I have no thoughts on it. I guess it's the arrogance that comes with American exceptionalism. Lmao. And we wonder why other countries make fun of us.
orangemayhem
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4/22/2015 9:42:11 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
This'll be my first UK election where I'm able to vote, so it's all quite exciting.

At 4/20/2015 2:19:43 PM, bsh1 wrote:

The UK General Election is happening on May the 7th. Below I've linked some opinion polling that's been done for the election if you're interested, as well as four polls on DDO I would appreciate you voting on.

I have four questions: which party will get the most seats in Parliament?
I'd say Labour. The Conservatives are not running a particularly 'British' campaign with a major emphasis on personal attacks, and the electorate are seeing through it. Plus, Britain's increasingly embracing the idea of a 'nerd' as PM, given that Cameron is the alternative.

Who will be Prime Minister?
Ed Miliband, likely in a loose arrangement with the SNP. But Plaid Cymru and the Green Party follow the same line (broadly speaking) as the SNP so they'll be de facto part of the government anyway.

Which minor parties (Plaid Cymru, UKIP, Green, Lib Dem, or SNP) do you think will benefit most and why?
The SNP will be the main beneficiaries for one key reason: this will be the first time in living memory Scotland's had a Westminster government which vaguely reflects how they voted. Essentially England's getting a taste of its own medicine after 5 years of rule by a party with only one seat in Scotland, a handful of seats in Wales, and nothing in Northern Ireland. UKIP won't benefit that much as they'll struggle to win more than 4 seats.

And, will this election single the end of 2-party politics in the UK?
Depends exactly how much reform the SNP and Labour manage to push through in the next parliament. If we get another stab at voting reform (as I sorely hope we do) then yes, almost certainly.

Also, on a less predicative note, if you're voting in the election, who do you think you'll be voting for and why? And, for anyone whether or not they're in the UK, who do you think should win?
I'm voting in the election, though both my seat at home in London and at uni in Oxford are notionally safe Labour seats. I'm voting Labour with one purpose: to get David Cameron out of Downing Street. He will take my EU passport from my cold, dead hands.
I'm back (ish).
Wocambs
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4/25/2015 3:38:23 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 4/21/2015 10:58:28 AM, TN05 wrote:
At 4/20/2015 2:19:43 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Intro and Questions

The UK General Election is happening on May the 7th. Below I've linked some opinion polling that's been done for the election if you're interested, as well as four polls on DDO I would appreciate you voting on.

I have four questions: which party will get the most seats in Parliament?

I think UKIP will fade a little down the stretch and SNP will sweep Scotland, so the Conservatives will have a very narrow (and fairly useless) lead.

Who will be Prime Minister?

In all likelihood, Ed Milliband. The coalition partners are far more welcoming to his side.

Which minor parties (Plaid Cymru, UKIP, Green, Lib Dem, or SNP) do you think will benefit most and why?

The big winners regardless will be SNP and DUP - they are the kingmakers for Labour and the Conservatives, respectively. The influence of Greens and UKIP will be limited as they might, at most, only have 5 seats or so. The Lib Dems will continue their decline and would coalition with anyone.

And, will this election single the end of 2-party politics in the UK?

If the rise of UKIP is permanent, yes, this will be the end of the three-party system. Something like alternative vote will have to be enacted to keep government stable.

Also, on a less predicative note, if you're voting in the election, who do you think you'll be voting for and why? And, for anyone whether or not they're in the UK, who do you think should win?

I would vote Conservative as the the threat of a far-left Labour/Lib Dem/GreenSNP/Plaid Cymru alliance outweighs wasting a vote on a party that might win five seats at most.

That notorious far-left Milliband who basically agrees with the Tory economic policy...

Opinion Polling

http://en.wikipedia.org...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk...
http://www.bbc.com...
http://may2015.com...

DDO Polls

http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

Thanks for sharing your thoughts...!
TN05
Posts: 4,492
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4/25/2015 7:58:32 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 4/25/2015 3:38:23 PM, Wocambs wrote:
At 4/21/2015 10:58:28 AM, TN05 wrote:
At 4/20/2015 2:19:43 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Intro and Questions

The UK General Election is happening on May the 7th. Below I've linked some opinion polling that's been done for the election if you're interested, as well as four polls on DDO I would appreciate you voting on.

I have four questions: which party will get the most seats in Parliament?

I think UKIP will fade a little down the stretch and SNP will sweep Scotland, so the Conservatives will have a very narrow (and fairly useless) lead.

Who will be Prime Minister?

In all likelihood, Ed Milliband. The coalition partners are far more welcoming to his side.

Which minor parties (Plaid Cymru, UKIP, Green, Lib Dem, or SNP) do you think will benefit most and why?

The big winners regardless will be SNP and DUP - they are the kingmakers for Labour and the Conservatives, respectively. The influence of Greens and UKIP will be limited as they might, at most, only have 5 seats or so. The Lib Dems will continue their decline and would coalition with anyone.

And, will this election single the end of 2-party politics in the UK?

If the rise of UKIP is permanent, yes, this will be the end of the three-party system. Something like alternative vote will have to be enacted to keep government stable.

Also, on a less predicative note, if you're voting in the election, who do you think you'll be voting for and why? And, for anyone whether or not they're in the UK, who do you think should win?

I would vote Conservative as the the threat of a far-left Labour/Lib Dem/GreenSNP/Plaid Cymru alliance outweighs wasting a vote on a party that might win five seats at most.

That notorious far-left Milliband who basically agrees with the Tory economic policy...

You can't be serious. I think it's clear by any reasonable standard that Miliband is to the left of Blair - let alone Cameron (who, might I remind is not extremely right-wing himself). He may be the most left wing Labour leader since the 1970s Last I checked the Tories weren't calling for rent control, massive tax increases, energy caps and confiscating land.
1Historygenius
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4/25/2015 11:13:26 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
I expect the situation to go Labour's way, but they will not be governing without allies.
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