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Road to Prime Minister: UK Election Math

bsh1
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5/2/2015 11:51:28 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Using these predictions, [http://may2015.com...] we can take a look to see the various roads to 10 Downing Street.

326 seats are needed for a majority and to be PM. Supposing that Labour forms a government, what options do they have? If Labour really doesn't deal with the SNP, then that leaves with the Lib Dems, Greens, and other, smaller parties. Supposing all of these groups agreed to support him (it's unlikely that all the miscellaneous parties would), he would have 319 votes, 7 short of a majority.

However, if Labour did team up with the SNP, he would have 325 votes, and so with just one more partner (which could be the Lib Dems, Greens, or Plaid Cymru) he could be Prime Minister.

Now, Labour has ruled out a formal deal with the SNP, which means no coalition government. But, he could have an informal deal with the SNP and form a minority government. To be Prime Minister, all one needs to do is to win a vote of confidence in the House of Commons. If SNP agrees, in a behind-the-scenes kind of way, to support Labour leader Ed Milliband in the vote of confidence in exchange for some things, he could be Prime Minister without forming an actual coalition government. However, SNP would probably prefer a formal deal, and having such an ad hoc, vote-by-vote relationship is less stable than a formal coalition.

Now, SNP and the Greens have totally ruled out any deal with the Conservatives, formal or informal. This leaves David Cameron in a really rough position, because, even if UKIP (his natural ally), the Lib Dems (his current coalition partners), and all miscellaneous parties (it's unlikely that they'd all support him--Plaid Cymru certainly wouldn't) joined with him, he would only have 324 seats, 2 short of a majority.

That means that the only chances David Cameron has of being PM this next term are (a) for the new Parliament to reach a deadlock and for fresh elections to be called, or (b) for the Tories and Labour to form a National Unity Government, in which the Tories, as the largest party, would take the lead.

So, in other words, Milliband is far, far likelier to be PM than Cameron.
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bsh1
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5/3/2015 8:19:54 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Bump.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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bsh1
Posts: 27,504
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5/4/2015 11:46:15 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/3/2015 8:19:54 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Bump.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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: http://www.debate.org...

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TN05
Posts: 4,492
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5/4/2015 12:01:05 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Obviously Cameron is in a bad spot here. Its going to be very unusual to say the least.
Wocambs
Posts: 1,505
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5/6/2015 8:29:24 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/2/2015 11:51:28 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Using these predictions, [http://may2015.com...] we can take a look to see the various roads to 10 Downing Street.

326 seats are needed for a majority and to be PM. Supposing that Labour forms a government, what options do they have? If Labour really doesn't deal with the SNP, then that leaves with the Lib Dems, Greens, and other, smaller parties. Supposing all of these groups agreed to support him (it's unlikely that all the miscellaneous parties would), he would have 319 votes, 7 short of a majority.

However, if Labour did team up with the SNP, he would have 325 votes, and so with just one more partner (which could be the Lib Dems, Greens, or Plaid Cymru) he could be Prime Minister.

Now, Labour has ruled out a formal deal with the SNP, which means no coalition government. But, he could have an informal deal with the SNP and form a minority government. To be Prime Minister, all one needs to do is to win a vote of confidence in the House of Commons. If SNP agrees, in a behind-the-scenes kind of way, to support Labour leader Ed Milliband in the vote of confidence in exchange for some things, he could be Prime Minister without forming an actual coalition government. However, SNP would probably prefer a formal deal, and having such an ad hoc, vote-by-vote relationship is less stable than a formal coalition.

Now, SNP and the Greens have totally ruled out any deal with the Conservatives, formal or informal. This leaves David Cameron in a really rough position, because, even if UKIP (his natural ally), the Lib Dems (his current coalition partners), and all miscellaneous parties (it's unlikely that they'd all support him--Plaid Cymru certainly wouldn't) joined with him, he would only have 324 seats, 2 short of a majority.

That means that the only chances David Cameron has of being PM this next term are (a) for the new Parliament to reach a deadlock and for fresh elections to be called, or (b) for the Tories and Labour to form a National Unity Government, in which the Tories, as the largest party, would take the lead.

So, in other words, Milliband is far, far likelier to be PM than Cameron.

Perhaps we are set for some genuine change in the UK. It's definitely more exciting than the last election...