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AP Projects Tories win 316 seats

TN05
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5/7/2015 4:26:14 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
http://apne.ws...

Tories - 316
Labour - 239
SNP - 58
Lib. Dems - 10
UKIP - 2

It appears the Tories have enough seats to form a coalition with either Lib. Dems or. DUP/UKIP.
1Historygenius
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5/7/2015 6:37:21 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Assuming the DUP keeps what seats it has (8) and UKIP does get 2, then the Lib Dems an totally get ditched and the Conservatives can go for a more right coalition. Election results here:

http://www.bbc.com...
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1Historygenius
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5/7/2015 6:41:12 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Basically, the shy Tory factor strikes again.
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TN05
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5/7/2015 7:27:13 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/7/2015 6:49:26 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 5/7/2015 6:41:12 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
Basically, the shy Tory factor strikes again.

What's that?

The Tories usually underperform in exit polls by at least a few percentage points - it was as bad as 9 points in 1992. Basically, a rather large chunk of Conservative voters refuse to disclose their voting intentions. This causes a big problem that overestimates the performance of Labour. So it usually isn't surprising for the Conservatives to outperform the polls a bit.
1Historygenius
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5/7/2015 7:27:18 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/7/2015 6:49:26 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 5/7/2015 6:41:12 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
Basically, the shy Tory factor strikes again.

What's that?

In the 1992 general election, Labour was expected to win and every poll showed, but on election day the Conservatives were still in power and John Major was still prime minister. This led to the UK political scientists to realistically acknowledge that many people who are polled don't say they will vote for the Tories even though they certainly will. It basically guarantees that the Conservatives are underpolled in every election, but this does vary. One problem with this general election is that gerrymandering boundaries that weren't changed benefit Labour, but the shy Tory factor does still exist. If this exist poll is accurate, that means the shy Tories were very important to his election and the polls missed this election by a mile.
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

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TN05
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5/7/2015 7:30:53 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/7/2015 6:37:21 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
Assuming the DUP keeps what seats it has (8) and UKIP does get 2, then the Lib Dems an totally get ditched and the Conservatives can go for a more right coalition. Election results here:

http://www.bbc.com...

They could even avoid a coalition with UKIP if they wanted. There should be at least three Sinn Fein voters, who abstain and thus reduce the needed majority to 323 votes. That would give the Tories only a one-vote cushion, though. There's also the possibility UUP might win a few seats - they'd be a natural coalition partner given their previous alliance with the Conservatives in 2010.

I highly doubt they won't at least try to get Lib. Dems in, though. The 10 Lib. Dems would be much more valuable than two UKIP members. Lib. Dems refuse to work with UKIP, but a 316-seat Tory + 8 seat DUP + 10 seat Lib. Dem coalition would be 334 seats. That's a fairly comfortable margin.
TN05
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5/7/2015 7:32:30 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/7/2015 7:27:18 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 5/7/2015 6:49:26 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 5/7/2015 6:41:12 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
Basically, the shy Tory factor strikes again.

What's that?

In the 1992 general election, Labour was expected to win and every poll showed, but on election day the Conservatives were still in power and John Major was still prime minister. This led to the UK political scientists to realistically acknowledge that many people who are polled don't say they will vote for the Tories even though they certainly will. It basically guarantees that the Conservatives are underpolled in every election, but this does vary. One problem with this general election is that gerrymandering boundaries that weren't changed benefit Labour, but the shy Tory factor does still exist.

This is a major issue IMO. The fact each district can vary by tens of thousands of citizens from another is absurd. It makes it incredibly easy to gerrymander Labour seats.

If this exist poll is accurate, that means the shy Tories were very important to his election and the polls missed this election by a mile.
TN05
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5/7/2015 7:34:21 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Actually, the BBC says it could be as few as 321 votes needed if you exclude the speaker and deputies. That would make a Conservative/DUP/UKIP alliance a lot easier to control.
dylancatlow
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5/7/2015 7:39:26 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/7/2015 7:30:53 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 5/7/2015 6:37:21 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:


I highly doubt they won't at least try to get Lib. Dems in, though. The 10 Lib. Dems would be much more valuable than two UKIP members. Lib. Dems refuse to work with UKIP, but a 316-seat Tory + 8 seat DUP + 10 seat Lib. Dem coalition would be 334 seats. That's a fairly comfortable margin.

So you're saying that if the Tories recruited UKIP members to their side, they would alienate Lib. Dems? Sorry, I'm a total noob when it comes to UK politics.
1Historygenius
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5/7/2015 7:42:43 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/7/2015 7:34:21 PM, TN05 wrote:
Actually, the BBC says it could be as few as 321 votes needed if you exclude the speaker and deputies. That would make a Conservative/DUP/UKIP alliance a lot easier to control.

Politically, I think UKIP is a better idea because it is basically angry Tories that left the Conservatives. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats are set to lose big in this election, so I don't know of the politics of picking a defeated party, but it might look bad. Additionally, Clegg was fairly hostile to Cameron in the debate. I know they are from different parties, but I think it would have looked better had Clegg appeared more loyal as deputy prime minister. Finally, the Lib Dems were the ones who blocked Conservative attempts at changing the boundaries in the first place.
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

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TN05
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5/7/2015 7:45:06 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/7/2015 7:39:26 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 5/7/2015 7:30:53 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 5/7/2015 6:37:21 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:


I highly doubt they won't at least try to get Lib. Dems in, though. The 10 Lib. Dems would be much more valuable than two UKIP members. Lib. Dems refuse to work with UKIP, but a 316-seat Tory + 8 seat DUP + 10 seat Lib. Dem coalition would be 334 seats. That's a fairly comfortable margin.

So you're saying that if the Tories recruited UKIP members to their side, they would alienate Lib. Dems? Sorry, I'm a total noob when it comes to UK politics.

Yes. The Lib. Dems have flat-out said they refuse to align with a party that is working with UKIP. This is because UKIP is right-wing while Lib. Dems are centrist or center-left (and they don't want to be in a right-wing coalition), and because the Lib. Dems are the most supportive party towards the EU. Basically they are fine with being part of a center-right coalition, but not one embracing Euroskepticism or one that is too far removed from their more left-leaning base.
TN05
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5/7/2015 7:50:52 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/7/2015 7:42:43 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 5/7/2015 7:34:21 PM, TN05 wrote:
Actually, the BBC says it could be as few as 321 votes needed if you exclude the speaker and deputies. That would make a Conservative/DUP/UKIP alliance a lot easier to control.

Politically, I think UKIP is a better idea because it is basically angry Tories that left the Conservatives.

Some of them are, yes, but UKIP has also drawn support from other parties.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats are set to lose big in this election, so I don't know of the politics of picking a defeated party, but it might look bad.

I'm not so sure it won't be Nick Clegg begging for a spot in the coalition... it'd be the only way to keep his party relevant for the next 5 years.

Additionally, Clegg was fairly hostile to Cameron in the debate. I know they are from different parties, but I think it would have looked better had Clegg appeared more loyal as deputy prime minister. Finally, the Lib Dems were the ones who blocked Conservative attempts at changing the boundaries in the first place.

Part of that is many of the center-left Lib. Dem voters HATE the coalition. They would have preferred one with Labour and think Lib. Dems have capitulated on too many issues. So he has to play mean to Cameron to try and appease his base.
dylancatlow
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5/7/2015 7:52:02 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/7/2015 7:45:06 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 5/7/2015 7:39:26 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 5/7/2015 7:30:53 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 5/7/2015 6:37:21 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:


I highly doubt they won't at least try to get Lib. Dems in, though. The 10 Lib. Dems would be much more valuable than two UKIP members. Lib. Dems refuse to work with UKIP, but a 316-seat Tory + 8 seat DUP + 10 seat Lib. Dem coalition would be 334 seats. That's a fairly comfortable margin.

So you're saying that if the Tories recruited UKIP members to their side, they would alienate Lib. Dems? Sorry, I'm a total noob when it comes to UK politics.

Yes. The Lib. Dems have flat-out said they refuse to align with a party that is working with UKIP. This is because UKIP is right-wing while Lib. Dems are centrist or center-left (and they don't want to be in a right-wing coalition), and because the Lib. Dems are the most supportive party towards the EU. Basically they are fine with being part of a center-right coalition, but not one embracing Euroskepticism or one that is too far removed from their more left-leaning base.

It seems strange that a center to center-left party would even consider aligning with a center-right coalition.

Since UKIP would probably side with the Tories in any case, it seems like the smart move would be to establish an official alliance with the lib dem, who have more members anyway.
thett3
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5/7/2015 7:54:25 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
damn, the lib dems are taking a BEATING
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1harderthanyouthink
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5/7/2015 7:59:03 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Ideally, there would be a coalition between the Cannabis Is Safer Than Alcohol Party and the Monster Raving Loony Party.
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1Historygenius
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5/7/2015 7:59:41 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
I think UKIP might have anywhere between two and five before tonight is done. There is some concern Farage will lose though.
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TN05
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5/7/2015 8:03:41 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/7/2015 7:52:02 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 5/7/2015 7:45:06 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 5/7/2015 7:39:26 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 5/7/2015 7:30:53 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 5/7/2015 6:37:21 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:


I highly doubt they won't at least try to get Lib. Dems in, though. The 10 Lib. Dems would be much more valuable than two UKIP members. Lib. Dems refuse to work with UKIP, but a 316-seat Tory + 8 seat DUP + 10 seat Lib. Dem coalition would be 334 seats. That's a fairly comfortable margin.

So you're saying that if the Tories recruited UKIP members to their side, they would alienate Lib. Dems? Sorry, I'm a total noob when it comes to UK politics.

Yes. The Lib. Dems have flat-out said they refuse to align with a party that is working with UKIP. This is because UKIP is right-wing while Lib. Dems are centrist or center-left (and they don't want to be in a right-wing coalition), and because the Lib. Dems are the most supportive party towards the EU. Basically they are fine with being part of a center-right coalition, but not one embracing Euroskepticism or one that is too far removed from their more left-leaning base.

It seems strange that a center to center-left party would even consider aligning with a center-right coalition.

Yep. It was a very uneasy coalition... basically the Lib. Dems are split into two factions - economic liberals (kind of like pseudo-libertarians, more supportive of free markets but also liberal on social issues) and social liberals (basically like US Democrats or Canadian Liberals). The economic liberals are known as "Orange Bookers" (some of them wrote a book called the Orange Book that endorsed the sort of more free-market liberalism), and Nick Clegg (the Lib. Dem leader) was one of the co-authors; three of the Lib. Dems six cabinet members worked on the Orang Book. So half the party would have preferred a coalition with Labour, basically, and they are displeased with the results.

Since UKIP would probably side with the Tories in any case, it seems like the smart move would be to establish an official alliance with the lib dem, who have more members anyway.

As long as there isn't anything official I don't think the Lib. Dems would rule out working the the Tories. That's really their only option since they are also refusing to work with SNP (Scottish Nationalist Party), who would be Labour's coalition partner.
thett3
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5/7/2015 8:04:48 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/7/2015 8:01:57 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 5/7/2015 7:54:25 PM, thett3 wrote:
damn, the lib dems are taking a BEATING

yeah, seriously

I've been watching BBC, virtually every seat that they've called the lib dems were down by double digits. that's just unreal
DDO Vice President

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"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
thett3
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5/7/2015 8:05:04 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/7/2015 8:04:48 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 5/7/2015 8:01:57 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 5/7/2015 7:54:25 PM, thett3 wrote:
damn, the lib dems are taking a BEATING

yeah, seriously

I've been watching BBC, virtually every seat that they've called the lib dems were down by double digits. that's just unreal

down from their 2010 share
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
dylancatlow
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5/7/2015 8:06:10 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/7/2015 8:04:48 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 5/7/2015 8:01:57 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 5/7/2015 7:54:25 PM, thett3 wrote:
damn, the lib dems are taking a BEATING

yeah, seriously

I've been watching BBC, virtually every seat that they've called the lib dems were down by double digits. that's just unreal

What on earth did they do? Murder all the puppies and babies with fire?
TN05
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5/7/2015 8:06:17 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/7/2015 7:54:25 PM, thett3 wrote:
damn, the lib dems are taking a BEATING

The Lib. Dem base really doesn't like the Tories - they are a lot more left-leaning than Lib. Dem leadership expected. Working with them seems like a big miscalculation in hindsight.
1Historygenius
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5/7/2015 8:07:56 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
I'm pretty sure the DUP lost the first seat of the night to the UUP, but I believe both are generally right-wing.
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

Latest debate - Reagan was a better President than Obama: http://www.debate.org...
TN05
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5/7/2015 8:12:39 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/7/2015 8:07:56 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
I'm pretty sure the DUP lost the first seat of the night to the UUP, but I believe both are generally right-wing.

UUP is more center-right. They actually were in a formal coalition with Conservatives in 2010, but didn't win any seats. They'd have no issue joining a Tory coalition - if anything it would be easier.
1Historygenius
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5/7/2015 8:19:07 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Anyone here think we would have all predicted Miliband as prime minister had SNP not surged?
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1Historygenius
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5/7/2015 8:38:13 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Farage looks a little feisty tonight. http://www.itv.com...
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

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TN05
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5/7/2015 8:40:25 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
20-year Mhairi Black, an SNP candidate, just beat out Labour's proposed foreign minister. This is a really, really bad night for Labour in Scotland.
TN05
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5/7/2015 8:44:59 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Also, it appears Britain's leading anti-Semite George Galloway has lost his seat. Predictably, his supporters are accusing the Jews of rigging the election. Good riddance.