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Are Millennials Abandoning the GOP?

bsh1
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6/15/2015 7:32:33 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Are millennials abandoning the GOP (or vice versa)? One a lot of core issues, the two groups just don't seem to agree (e.g. LGBTQ issues), and they also seem to have very different ethos. What are your thoughts.

For more, see: http://www.theguardian.com...
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16kadams
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6/15/2015 8:51:11 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 6/15/2015 7:32:33 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Are millennials abandoning the GOP (or vice versa)? One a lot of core issues, the two groups just don't seem to agree (e.g. LGBTQ issues), and they also seem to have very different ethos. What are your thoughts.

For more, see: http://www.theguardian.com...

I don't necessarily think that is true. For example, we can't just measure gay marriage support. If a pollster asked me, I may actually say "sure". But does that mean ima go vote for O'Malley?

We have to ask what percentage of each group actually gives a damn. And even though support for SSM is at 60%, the percentage of those against who actually *require* a candidate to have their opinion (or else they don't vote for them) is 37% for those against and only 21% for those in favor (http://www.gallup.com...). Based on trends this will reverse in a few years; those who actually care in support will take over. But at the moment it is not a big issue.

Further, the GOP when it comes to economic issues better aligns with the country. Support for late term abortion bans is also like 83% or something. So a candidate reminding people about that could make up for it. Also, most minorities (blacks and Hispanics) are socially conservative.

Plus, I think a young and dynamic candidate like Scott Walker or Marco Rubio, versus an old and decrepit Clinton, could increase the share of millennial supporters (but I doubt they would get a majority).
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https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
THEBOMB
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6/15/2015 9:16:43 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 6/15/2015 7:32:33 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Are millennials abandoning the GOP (or vice versa)? One a lot of core issues, the two groups just don't seem to agree (e.g. LGBTQ issues), and they also seem to have very different ethos. What are your thoughts.

For more, see: http://www.theguardian.com...

Three thoughts:
1. Youth support for the GOP has pretty much stayed constant since the 1990s: http://www.people-press.org...

2. Younger generations have historically always been more liberal and democratic. As they get older, they become more conservative.

3. Harvard found that 55% millennials want a democratic president and 40% want a Republican president in 2016 (http://www.iop.harvard.edu...). In 2012, Barack Obama (the Democrat) won 67% of the youth vote compared to Romney's (Republican) 30% (http://www.politico.com...). So, if we go by purely party affiliation, if anything the Democrats are having a weaker hold on the university age generation.
THEBOMB
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6/15/2015 9:19:22 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 6/15/2015 8:51:11 PM, 16kadams wrote:
Plus, I think a young and dynamic candidate like Scott Walker or Marco Rubio, versus an old and decrepit Clinton, could increase the share of millennial supporters (but I doubt they would get a majority).

Any candidate will look young compared to Clinton (who is 67). She's going for the whole "grandmother look" (see Elizabeth Warren who has a TON of youth support and is 65.)
Contra
Posts: 3,941
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6/15/2015 9:49:57 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 6/15/2015 9:19:22 PM, THEBOMB wrote:
At 6/15/2015 8:51:11 PM, 16kadams wrote:
Plus, I think a young and dynamic candidate like Scott Walker or Marco Rubio, versus an old and decrepit Clinton, could increase the share of millennial supporters (but I doubt they would get a majority).

Any candidate will look young compared to Clinton (who is 67). She's going for the whole "grandmother look" (see Elizabeth Warren who has a TON of youth support and is 65.)

Ha nice way to turn that into her advantage.
"The solution [for Republicans] is to admit that Bush was a bad president, stop this racist homophobic stuff, stop trying to give most of the tax cuts to the rich, propose a real alternative to Obamacare that actually works, and propose smart free market solutions to our economic problems." - Distraff

"Americans are better off in a dynamic, free-enterprise-based economy that fosters economic growth, opportunity and upward mobility." - Paul Ryan
THEBOMB
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6/15/2015 9:52:27 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 6/15/2015 9:49:57 PM, Contra wrote:
At 6/15/2015 9:19:22 PM, THEBOMB wrote:
At 6/15/2015 8:51:11 PM, 16kadams wrote:
Plus, I think a young and dynamic candidate like Scott Walker or Marco Rubio, versus an old and decrepit Clinton, could increase the share of millennial supporters (but I doubt they would get a majority).

Any candidate will look young compared to Clinton (who is 67). She's going for the whole "grandmother look" (see Elizabeth Warren who has a TON of youth support and is 65.)

Ha nice way to turn that into her advantage.

There are advantages and disadvantages to every characteristic in politics.
Contra
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6/15/2015 9:58:09 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 6/15/2015 9:52:27 PM, THEBOMB wrote:
At 6/15/2015 9:49:57 PM, Contra wrote:
At 6/15/2015 9:19:22 PM, THEBOMB wrote:
At 6/15/2015 8:51:11 PM, 16kadams wrote:
Plus, I think a young and dynamic candidate like Scott Walker or Marco Rubio, versus an old and decrepit Clinton, could increase the share of millennial supporters (but I doubt they would get a majority).

Any candidate will look young compared to Clinton (who is 67). She's going for the whole "grandmother look" (see Elizabeth Warren who has a TON of youth support and is 65.)

Ha nice way to turn that into her advantage.

There are advantages and disadvantages to every characteristic in politics.

Touche
"The solution [for Republicans] is to admit that Bush was a bad president, stop this racist homophobic stuff, stop trying to give most of the tax cuts to the rich, propose a real alternative to Obamacare that actually works, and propose smart free market solutions to our economic problems." - Distraff

"Americans are better off in a dynamic, free-enterprise-based economy that fosters economic growth, opportunity and upward mobility." - Paul Ryan
16kadams
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6/15/2015 10:16:02 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 6/15/2015 9:19:22 PM, THEBOMB wrote:
At 6/15/2015 8:51:11 PM, 16kadams wrote:
Plus, I think a young and dynamic candidate like Scott Walker or Marco Rubio, versus an old and decrepit Clinton, could increase the share of millennial supporters (but I doubt they would get a majority).

Any candidate will look young compared to Clinton (who is 67). She's going for the whole "grandmother look" (see Elizabeth Warren who has a TON of youth support and is 65.)

Well... 73% say they have no opinion (undecided or have not heard enough). Her favorable to unfavorable ratings are about the same. I wouldn't call that a "ton" of support. Here is a list of the polls: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com... Heard Enough,Undecided,Unfavorable
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
16kadams
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6/15/2015 10:17:08 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 6/15/2015 9:58:09 PM, Contra wrote:
At 6/15/2015 9:52:27 PM, THEBOMB wrote:
At 6/15/2015 9:49:57 PM, Contra wrote:
At 6/15/2015 9:19:22 PM, THEBOMB wrote:
At 6/15/2015 8:51:11 PM, 16kadams wrote:
Plus, I think a young and dynamic candidate like Scott Walker or Marco Rubio, versus an old and decrepit Clinton, could increase the share of millennial supporters (but I doubt they would get a majority).

Any candidate will look young compared to Clinton (who is 67). She's going for the whole "grandmother look" (see Elizabeth Warren who has a TON of youth support and is 65.)

Ha nice way to turn that into her advantage.

There are advantages and disadvantages to every characteristic in politics.

Touche

Other than Reagan, I don't think "old" candidates tend to do well. McCain, Dole, and Romney (to a degree) lost because they weren't hip enough compared to their opponents. Being old makes it easier to win the GOP nomination, but not the general.
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
THEBOMB
Posts: 2,872
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6/15/2015 10:31:24 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 6/15/2015 10:16:02 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 6/15/2015 9:19:22 PM, THEBOMB wrote:
At 6/15/2015 8:51:11 PM, 16kadams wrote:
Plus, I think a young and dynamic candidate like Scott Walker or Marco Rubio, versus an old and decrepit Clinton, could increase the share of millennial supporters (but I doubt they would get a majority).

Any candidate will look young compared to Clinton (who is 67). She's going for the whole "grandmother look" (see Elizabeth Warren who has a TON of youth support and is 65.)

Well... 73% say they have no opinion (undecided or have not heard enough). Her favorable to unfavorable ratings are about the same. I wouldn't call that a "ton" of support. Here is a list of the polls: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com... Heard Enough,Undecided,Unfavorable

I'm saying among students she has a lot of support. Regardless, even without running for president, she has still managed to capture 35% or so of the progressive or strongly liberal base as opposed to Clinton's 46%.

Also, MoveOn has been trying forever to get her to run for president. That's a very large organization. So many organizations were pushing her to run for president, she has said no every time. If she did decide to run, she would have a relatively large coalition behind her.
THEBOMB
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6/15/2015 10:35:17 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 6/15/2015 10:17:08 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 6/15/2015 9:58:09 PM, Contra wrote:
At 6/15/2015 9:52:27 PM, THEBOMB wrote:
At 6/15/2015 9:49:57 PM, Contra wrote:
At 6/15/2015 9:19:22 PM, THEBOMB wrote:
At 6/15/2015 8:51:11 PM, 16kadams wrote:
Plus, I think a young and dynamic candidate like Scott Walker or Marco Rubio, versus an old and decrepit Clinton, could increase the share of millennial supporters (but I doubt they would get a majority).

Any candidate will look young compared to Clinton (who is 67). She's going for the whole "grandmother look" (see Elizabeth Warren who has a TON of youth support and is 65.)

Ha nice way to turn that into her advantage.

There are advantages and disadvantages to every characteristic in politics.

Touche

Other than Reagan, I don't think "old" candidates tend to do well. McCain, Dole, and Romney (to a degree) lost because they weren't hip enough compared to their opponents. Being old makes it easier to win the GOP nomination, but not the general.

McCain lost because of his support for the War in Iraq and Bush (both of which were unpopular), the fact the economy was in the toilet, and the fact that 90% of the country believed the country was on the wrong course under a republican president.

Romney lost because he was a multi-billionaire who couldn't appeal to anyone.

I don't know enough about Dole.

Besides, you're comparing apples to oranges. An old man can't seem grandmotherly.
16kadams
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6/15/2015 10:35:47 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 6/15/2015 10:31:24 PM, THEBOMB wrote:
At 6/15/2015 10:16:02 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 6/15/2015 9:19:22 PM, THEBOMB wrote:
At 6/15/2015 8:51:11 PM, 16kadams wrote:
Plus, I think a young and dynamic candidate like Scott Walker or Marco Rubio, versus an old and decrepit Clinton, could increase the share of millennial supporters (but I doubt they would get a majority).

Any candidate will look young compared to Clinton (who is 67). She's going for the whole "grandmother look" (see Elizabeth Warren who has a TON of youth support and is 65.)

Well... 73% say they have no opinion (undecided or have not heard enough). Her favorable to unfavorable ratings are about the same. I wouldn't call that a "ton" of support. Here is a list of the polls: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com... Heard Enough,Undecided,Unfavorable

I'm saying among students she has a lot of support. Regardless, even without running for president, she has still managed to capture 35% or so of the progressive or strongly liberal base as opposed to Clinton's 46%.

Also, MoveOn has been trying forever to get her to run for president. That's a very large organization. So many organizations were pushing her to run for president, she has said no every time. If she did decide to run, she would have a relatively large coalition behind her.

I dunno. She does not seem as old as Hillary, know what I mean? I mean I see a republican candidate walking Hillary on the debate stage like a boy scout would to an old person crossing the street. I don't see Warren letting that happen.
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
THEBOMB
Posts: 2,872
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6/15/2015 10:39:25 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 6/15/2015 10:35:47 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 6/15/2015 10:31:24 PM, THEBOMB wrote:
At 6/15/2015 10:16:02 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 6/15/2015 9:19:22 PM, THEBOMB wrote:
At 6/15/2015 8:51:11 PM, 16kadams wrote:
Plus, I think a young and dynamic candidate like Scott Walker or Marco Rubio, versus an old and decrepit Clinton, could increase the share of millennial supporters (but I doubt they would get a majority).

Any candidate will look young compared to Clinton (who is 67). She's going for the whole "grandmother look" (see Elizabeth Warren who has a TON of youth support and is 65.)

Well... 73% say they have no opinion (undecided or have not heard enough). Her favorable to unfavorable ratings are about the same. I wouldn't call that a "ton" of support. Here is a list of the polls: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com... Heard Enough,Undecided,Unfavorable

I'm saying among students she has a lot of support. Regardless, even without running for president, she has still managed to capture 35% or so of the progressive or strongly liberal base as opposed to Clinton's 46%.

Also, MoveOn has been trying forever to get her to run for president. That's a very large organization. So many organizations were pushing her to run for president, she has said no every time. If she did decide to run, she would have a relatively large coalition behind her.

I dunno. She does not seem as old as Hillary, know what I mean? I mean I see a republican candidate walking Hillary on the debate stage like a boy scout would to an old person crossing the street. I don't see Warren letting that happen.

Yea. Warren has a little more spring in her step, if you will, than Hilldog. Of course, Hilldog may try the grandmotherly look. Can't say whether it will be successful for another year or so (need to be closer to the election and a few caucuses in.)
16kadams
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6/15/2015 10:40:41 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 6/15/2015 10:39:25 PM, THEBOMB wrote:
At 6/15/2015 10:35:47 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 6/15/2015 10:31:24 PM, THEBOMB wrote:
At 6/15/2015 10:16:02 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 6/15/2015 9:19:22 PM, THEBOMB wrote:
At 6/15/2015 8:51:11 PM, 16kadams wrote:
Plus, I think a young and dynamic candidate like Scott Walker or Marco Rubio, versus an old and decrepit Clinton, could increase the share of millennial supporters (but I doubt they would get a majority).

Any candidate will look young compared to Clinton (who is 67). She's going for the whole "grandmother look" (see Elizabeth Warren who has a TON of youth support and is 65.)

Well... 73% say they have no opinion (undecided or have not heard enough). Her favorable to unfavorable ratings are about the same. I wouldn't call that a "ton" of support. Here is a list of the polls: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com... Heard Enough,Undecided,Unfavorable

I'm saying among students she has a lot of support. Regardless, even without running for president, she has still managed to capture 35% or so of the progressive or strongly liberal base as opposed to Clinton's 46%.

Also, MoveOn has been trying forever to get her to run for president. That's a very large organization. So many organizations were pushing her to run for president, she has said no every time. If she did decide to run, she would have a relatively large coalition behind her.

I dunno. She does not seem as old as Hillary, know what I mean? I mean I see a republican candidate walking Hillary on the debate stage like a boy scout would to an old person crossing the street. I don't see Warren letting that happen.

Yea. Warren has a little more spring in her step, if you will, than Hilldog. Of course, Hilldog may try the grandmotherly look. Can't say whether it will be successful for another year or so (need to be closer to the election and a few caucuses in.)

I wouldn't vote for my grandma for president because she is liberal

lolll
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
THEBOMB
Posts: 2,872
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6/15/2015 10:45:27 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 6/15/2015 10:40:41 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 6/15/2015 10:39:25 PM, THEBOMB wrote:
At 6/15/2015 10:35:47 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 6/15/2015 10:31:24 PM, THEBOMB wrote:
At 6/15/2015 10:16:02 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 6/15/2015 9:19:22 PM, THEBOMB wrote:
At 6/15/2015 8:51:11 PM, 16kadams wrote:
Plus, I think a young and dynamic candidate like Scott Walker or Marco Rubio, versus an old and decrepit Clinton, could increase the share of millennial supporters (but I doubt they would get a majority).

Any candidate will look young compared to Clinton (who is 67). She's going for the whole "grandmother look" (see Elizabeth Warren who has a TON of youth support and is 65.)

Well... 73% say they have no opinion (undecided or have not heard enough). Her favorable to unfavorable ratings are about the same. I wouldn't call that a "ton" of support. Here is a list of the polls: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com... Heard Enough,Undecided,Unfavorable

I'm saying among students she has a lot of support. Regardless, even without running for president, she has still managed to capture 35% or so of the progressive or strongly liberal base as opposed to Clinton's 46%.

Also, MoveOn has been trying forever to get her to run for president. That's a very large organization. So many organizations were pushing her to run for president, she has said no every time. If she did decide to run, she would have a relatively large coalition behind her.

I dunno. She does not seem as old as Hillary, know what I mean? I mean I see a republican candidate walking Hillary on the debate stage like a boy scout would to an old person crossing the street. I don't see Warren letting that happen.

Yea. Warren has a little more spring in her step, if you will, than Hilldog. Of course, Hilldog may try the grandmotherly look. Can't say whether it will be successful for another year or so (need to be closer to the election and a few caucuses in.)

I wouldn't vote for my grandma for president because she is liberal


lolll

Eh. Family above politics. I mean at the end of the day, "There are only two certainties in life " death and taxes"
16kadams
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6/15/2015 10:48:42 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 6/15/2015 10:45:27 PM, THEBOMB wrote:
At 6/15/2015 10:40:41 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 6/15/2015 10:39:25 PM, THEBOMB wrote:
At 6/15/2015 10:35:47 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 6/15/2015 10:31:24 PM, THEBOMB wrote:
At 6/15/2015 10:16:02 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 6/15/2015 9:19:22 PM, THEBOMB wrote:
At 6/15/2015 8:51:11 PM, 16kadams wrote:
Plus, I think a young and dynamic candidate like Scott Walker or Marco Rubio, versus an old and decrepit Clinton, could increase the share of millennial supporters (but I doubt they would get a majority).

Any candidate will look young compared to Clinton (who is 67). She's going for the whole "grandmother look" (see Elizabeth Warren who has a TON of youth support and is 65.)

Well... 73% say they have no opinion (undecided or have not heard enough). Her favorable to unfavorable ratings are about the same. I wouldn't call that a "ton" of support. Here is a list of the polls: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com... Heard Enough,Undecided,Unfavorable

I'm saying among students she has a lot of support. Regardless, even without running for president, she has still managed to capture 35% or so of the progressive or strongly liberal base as opposed to Clinton's 46%.

Also, MoveOn has been trying forever to get her to run for president. That's a very large organization. So many organizations were pushing her to run for president, she has said no every time. If she did decide to run, she would have a relatively large coalition behind her.

I dunno. She does not seem as old as Hillary, know what I mean? I mean I see a republican candidate walking Hillary on the debate stage like a boy scout would to an old person crossing the street. I don't see Warren letting that happen.

Yea. Warren has a little more spring in her step, if you will, than Hilldog. Of course, Hilldog may try the grandmotherly look. Can't say whether it will be successful for another year or so (need to be closer to the election and a few caucuses in.)

I wouldn't vote for my grandma for president because she is liberal


lolll

Eh. Family above politics. I mean at the end of the day, "There are only two certainties in life " death and taxes"

and life
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
thett3
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6/16/2015 12:20:32 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
There is evidence that people are heavily influenced by the political climate when they come of age. Voters who came of age during the floundering Obama presidency are less democratic than their peers who came of age when Bush was the object of ridicule. "Among self-reported voters who were 18 years old in 2012, Mitt Romney, not Obama, won the majority: 57 percent. Romney also won 59 percent among 19-year-olds, and 54 percent among 20-year-olds. These youngest voters of 2012 had entered the electorate in 2010-2012, when Obama"s popularity was much lower than the high point of his inauguration." http://www.washingtonpost.com...

I'm not sure how accurate these numbers are, but the general idea seems plausible. The idea that one of the major parties will become obsolete is laughable for a number of reasons. People are so dumb in their short sightedness, honestly. If Clinton wins, they'll be talking about some new era of democratic dominance even if she wins by a squeeker and even if Republicans still have a majority in the house and/or senate.

(Tangent) I'm always interested in how people view "landslides"--like Obama's election in 08 was unquestionably the most impressive presidential showing in recent history, and even then he only got 53% of the vote. McCain got about 46%. By our standards, this is a complete landslide but if you took a random sample of 10 people, on balance AT LEAST 4 of them would've backed McCain...and that was a "landslide" election. This is, and remains, a deeply divided country. I think the electoral college tends to distort that, but the dominant question these days is not how someone will vote, but if they will vote.
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omanjoka
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6/16/2015 9:22:01 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 6/15/2015 7:32:33 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Are millennials abandoning the GOP (or vice versa)? One a lot of core issues, the two groups just don't seem to agree (e.g. LGBTQ issues), and they also seem to have very different ethos. What are your thoughts.

For more, see: http://www.theguardian.com...

From an intelligence perspective, conservatives seem to only talk out of ignorance and emotion. They say that Obama's soft on ISIS, even though he is bombing them right now. They don't want to solve problems effectively, all they want to do is berate people until the problem is fixed.
Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able? Then he is not omnipotent.
Is he able, but not willing? Then he is malevolent.
Is he both able and willing? Then whence cometh evil?
Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him God?"
-Epicurus.
Daktoria
Posts: 497
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6/16/2015 9:24:35 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Millenials are abandoning the left because they realize the left is full of bullies.

The problem is a lot of millenials abandoned the right originally because it seemed to be a movement that was about abuse, negligence, blaming of victims, and telling victims to pull themselves up by their bootstraps on a ruggedly individualist basis.

When they encounter leftists who believe in denying personal responsibility, retributive justice, and holding people responsible for their actions, they realize that the left isn't any better, so they become politically apathetic. They don't vote for the right, but they still don't vote for the left. They don't vote at all.
Daktoria
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6/16/2015 9:27:38 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 6/15/2015 7:32:33 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Are millennials abandoning the GOP (or vice versa)? One a lot of core issues, the two groups just don't seem to agree (e.g. LGBTQ issues), and they also seem to have very different ethos. What are your thoughts.

For more, see: http://www.theguardian.com...

Actually, a lot of millenials are sick and tired of feminists who make themselves the center of attention.

Left-wing politics are supposed to be about a lot more than just feminism. When feminists bully everyone else around, everyone else realizes that feminists don't deserve their support anymore.

Ironically, this is why the right is winning attention as well. The War on Terror is thriving on feminism's opposition to Islam in the Middle East. Even Hillary has an aggressive foreign policy, and leading Republicans have said they'd rather support her than Ron and Rand Paul.
ben2974
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6/16/2015 9:42:04 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 6/15/2015 7:32:33 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Are millennials abandoning the GOP (or vice versa)? One a lot of core issues, the two groups just don't seem to agree (e.g. LGBTQ issues), and they also seem to have very different ethos. What are your thoughts.

For more, see: http://www.theguardian.com...

Millenials are part of the new culture that the GOP has been losing to. But the republican party is not solely defined by their positioning on hot-button social issues. Though, I know for many, such as a good friend of mine, that these specific disagreeable social issues are important enough to them to keep away from the party all together.
Daktoria
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6/16/2015 10:23:06 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 6/16/2015 9:42:04 AM, ben2974 wrote:
At 6/15/2015 7:32:33 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Are millennials abandoning the GOP (or vice versa)? One a lot of core issues, the two groups just don't seem to agree (e.g. LGBTQ issues), and they also seem to have very different ethos. What are your thoughts.

For more, see: http://www.theguardian.com...

Millenials are part of the new culture that the GOP has been losing to. But the republican party is not solely defined by their positioning on hot-button social issues. Though, I know for many, such as a good friend of mine, that these specific disagreeable social issues are important enough to them to keep away from the party all together.

The number one issue for the GOP has never been an issue.

Right now, it's pragmatism. Online and in academia, there are many ideological Republicans who are anti-pragmatists. They treat liberals as pragmatists who are obsessed with socially democratic moral emotivism and relativism...

...but in real life, Republicans are pragmatic extremists who treat liberals as wise guy, lazy bum, spoiled brats who aren't willing to apply themselves to become successful. They're caught up in the ivory tower with their heads up in the clouds, and have no idea how to actually work for a living.
Wylted
Posts: 21,167
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6/16/2015 12:53:48 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 6/15/2015 7:32:33 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Are millennials abandoning the GOP (or vice versa)? One a lot of core issues, the two groups just don't seem to agree (e.g. LGBTQ issues), and they also seem to have very different ethos. What are your thoughts.

For more, see: http://www.theguardian.com...

From the article "The Somewhat Concerned Multicultural Moderate. This generation is racially diverse, pro-pot, pro-marriage equality and pro-online gambling."

I'm a conservative and all those things, I don't consider them core issues, and I think the GOP will change their views to more closely align with the mainstream.

The poll also stated that 59% of millenniuls want the government to do more to fix problems. I think it's just a maturity thing in that regard. Everybody wants to see the government do more, until the government does more, and then they b1tch about how they do it. As soon as millennial a get some experience seeing how the changes they call for, make things worse, enough of them will change their mind. For every successful government action you see ( highways national parks etc.) you see ten unsuccesful ones (too much military intervention, unfair criminal justice system etc.).

You can look at any time in history and see this same things. People under 30 are typically liberal, people over 30 are typically conservative. You'll see the same trend in 50 years as we seen the last 1,000 years.

Other than that, there isn't too much to respond to from that article. The journalist injected too much of her own opinion in there and it was hard to get through. I realize I injected some of my bias into this, but she went to an extreme.
Wylted
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6/16/2015 12:57:20 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 6/15/2015 10:17:08 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 6/15/2015 9:58:09 PM, Contra wrote:
At 6/15/2015 9:52:27 PM, THEBOMB wrote:
At 6/15/2015 9:49:57 PM, Contra wrote:
At 6/15/2015 9:19:22 PM, THEBOMB wrote:
At 6/15/2015 8:51:11 PM, 16kadams wrote:
Plus, I think a young and dynamic candidate like Scott Walker or Marco Rubio, versus an old and decrepit Clinton, could increase the share of millennial supporters (but I doubt they would get a majority).

Any candidate will look young compared to Clinton (who is 67). She's going for the whole "grandmother look" (see Elizabeth Warren who has a TON of youth support and is 65.)

Ha nice way to turn that into her advantage.

There are advantages and disadvantages to every characteristic in politics.

Touche

Other than Reagan, I don't think "old" candidates tend to do well. McCain, Dole, and Romney (to a degree) lost because they weren't hip enough compared to their opponents. Being old makes it easier to win the GOP nomination, but not the general.

To be fair, two of those candidates went up against Obama, and Obama, like it or not is an exciting figure. I don't think that excitement surrounding his campaign is something that will be replicated. I was voting McCain, but secretly rooting for the guy.
Wylted
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6/16/2015 1:01:20 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 6/16/2015 9:22:01 AM, omanjoka wrote:
At 6/15/2015 7:32:33 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Are millennials abandoning the GOP (or vice versa)? One a lot of core issues, the two groups just don't seem to agree (e.g. LGBTQ issues), and they also seem to have very different ethos. What are your thoughts.

For more, see: http://www.theguardian.com...

From an intelligence perspective, conservatives seem to only talk out of ignorance and emotion. They say that Obama's soft on ISIS, even though he is bombing them right now. They don't want to solve problems effectively, all they want to do is berate people until the problem is fixed.

Really? Examine yourself, friend. This statement does the thing you accuse conservatives of.

Honestly, I wish Obama would leave ISIS alone, and obviously there are difference of opinion on what is effective, I think everyone is after the same results.
omanjoka
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6/16/2015 1:41:59 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 6/16/2015 1:01:20 PM, Wylted wrote:
At 6/16/2015 9:22:01 AM, omanjoka wrote:
At 6/15/2015 7:32:33 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Are millennials abandoning the GOP (or vice versa)? One a lot of core issues, the two groups just don't seem to agree (e.g. LGBTQ issues), and they also seem to have very different ethos. What are your thoughts.

For more, see: http://www.theguardian.com...

From an intelligence perspective, conservatives seem to only talk out of ignorance and emotion. They say that Obama's soft on ISIS, even though he is bombing them right now. They don't want to solve problems effectively, all they want to do is berate people until the problem is fixed.

Really? Examine yourself, friend. This statement does the thing you accuse conservatives of.

Honestly, I wish Obama would leave ISIS alone, and obviously there are difference of opinion on what is effective, I think everyone is after the same results.

My question is am I wrong about about the conservative GOP? When FOX News goes out of their way to say that Obama is harder on them than he is on ISIS, there isn't any substantive dialogue work with. I agree that We should let other people deal with ISIS. We have our own problems to deal with.

Opinions exist, but what is true and what isn't is not up for debate. An example would be abortion. Conservatives and liberals both want the same thing, less abortion, but how to achieve it is what splits them. Many, not all, conservatives want to make abortions less accessible, provide no contraceptives, and teach kids not to have sex until marriage. Liberals want to make abortions more accessible, provide tax-funded contraceptives, and teach kids safe sex. The reality is that, on this case to be specific, the liberal policies have led to fewer abortions, exactly what conservatives want.
Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able? Then he is not omnipotent.
Is he able, but not willing? Then he is malevolent.
Is he both able and willing? Then whence cometh evil?
Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him God?"
-Epicurus.
Wylted
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6/16/2015 1:51:56 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 6/16/2015 1:41:59 PM, omanjoka wrote:
At 6/16/2015 1:01:20 PM, Wylted wrote:
At 6/16/2015 9:22:01 AM, omanjoka wrote:
At 6/15/2015 7:32:33 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Are millennials abandoning the GOP (or vice versa)? One a lot of core issues, the two groups just don't seem to agree (e.g. LGBTQ issues), and they also seem to have very different ethos. What are your thoughts.

For more, see: http://www.theguardian.com...

From an intelligence perspective, conservatives seem to only talk out of ignorance and emotion. They say that Obama's soft on ISIS, even though he is bombing them right now. They don't want to solve problems effectively, all they want to do is berate people until the problem is fixed.

Really? Examine yourself, friend. This statement does the thing you accuse conservatives of.

Honestly, I wish Obama would leave ISIS alone, and obviously there are difference of opinion on what is effective, I think everyone is after the same results.

My question is am I wrong about about the conservative GOP?

Yes, horribly so.

When FOX News goes out of their way to say that Obama is harder on them than he is on ISIS, there isn't any substantive dialogue work with.

Those are pretty much Liberal Republicans. Besides that, they don't speak for Republicans, and did Fox News say that? Was it even a newscaster Wo said it? Or was it on a talk show that is non news programming the television has.

I agree that We should let other people deal with ISIS. We have our own problems to deal with.

Opinions exist, but what is true and what isn't is not up for debate. An example would be abortion. Conservatives and liberals both want the same thing, less abortion, but how to achieve it is what splits them. Many, not all, conservatives want to make abortions less accessible, provide no contraceptives, and teach kids not to have sex until marriage. Liberals want to make abortions more accessible, provide tax-funded contraceptives, and teach kids safe sex. The reality is that, on this case to be specific, the liberal policies have led to fewer abortions, exactly what conservatives want.

these are all strawman positions and red herrings. You also have some false dichotomies there. Clearly teaching kids safe sex and teaching them to wait for marriage is possible to do at the same time. (Just one example).

Would you like to debate me on politics and see if real debate can occur between differing ideologies?
16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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6/16/2015 1:54:24 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 6/16/2015 12:57:20 PM, Wylted wrote:
At 6/15/2015 10:17:08 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 6/15/2015 9:58:09 PM, Contra wrote:
At 6/15/2015 9:52:27 PM, THEBOMB wrote:
At 6/15/2015 9:49:57 PM, Contra wrote:
At 6/15/2015 9:19:22 PM, THEBOMB wrote:
At 6/15/2015 8:51:11 PM, 16kadams wrote:
Plus, I think a young and dynamic candidate like Scott Walker or Marco Rubio, versus an old and decrepit Clinton, could increase the share of millennial supporters (but I doubt they would get a majority).

Any candidate will look young compared to Clinton (who is 67). She's going for the whole "grandmother look" (see Elizabeth Warren who has a TON of youth support and is 65.)

Ha nice way to turn that into her advantage.

There are advantages and disadvantages to every characteristic in politics.

Touche

Other than Reagan, I don't think "old" candidates tend to do well. McCain, Dole, and Romney (to a degree) lost because they weren't hip enough compared to their opponents. Being old makes it easier to win the GOP nomination, but not the general.

To be fair, two of those candidates went up against Obama, and Obama, like it or not is an exciting figure. I don't think that excitement surrounding his campaign is something that will be replicated. I was voting McCain, but secretly rooting for the guy.

I know. That is why I think a young, exciting figure like Marco Rubio or Walker could do better among young voters outside of my friend group :P

It turns out GW Bush is a chill party animal. but I don't think the media wanted him to look chill
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"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
Contra
Posts: 3,941
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6/16/2015 10:37:35 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 6/16/2015 12:20:32 AM, thett3 wrote:
There is evidence that people are heavily influenced by the political climate when they come of age. Voters who came of age during the floundering Obama presidency are less democratic than their peers who came of age when Bush was the object of ridicule. "Among self-reported voters who were 18 years old in 2012, Mitt Romney, not Obama, won the majority: 57 percent. Romney also won 59 percent among 19-year-olds, and 54 percent among 20-year-olds. These youngest voters of 2012 had entered the electorate in 2010-2012, when Obama"s popularity was much lower than the high point of his inauguration." http://www.washingtonpost.com...

That's pretty insightful thett. I had no idea about those figures, and they surprise me, because all we ever hear from the media with regards to this issue is that "millennials were the backbone of Obama's coalition". Thanks for sharing dude.

I'm not sure how accurate these numbers are, but the general idea seems plausible. The idea that one of the major parties will become obsolete is laughable for a number of reasons. People are so dumb in their short sightedness, honestly. If Clinton wins, they'll be talking about some new era of democratic dominance even if she wins by a squeeker and even if Republicans still have a majority in the house and/or senate.

(Tangent) I'm always interested in how people view "landslides"--like Obama's election in 08 was unquestionably the most impressive presidential showing in recent history, and even then he only got 53% of the vote. McCain got about 46%. By our standards, this is a complete landslide but if you took a random sample of 10 people, on balance AT LEAST 4 of them would've backed McCain...and that was a "landslide" election. This is, and remains, a deeply divided country. I think the electoral college tends to distort that, but the dominant question these days is not how someone will vote, but if they will vote.
"The solution [for Republicans] is to admit that Bush was a bad president, stop this racist homophobic stuff, stop trying to give most of the tax cuts to the rich, propose a real alternative to Obamacare that actually works, and propose smart free market solutions to our economic problems." - Distraff

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Daltonian
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6/17/2015 10:18:14 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 6/15/2015 7:32:33 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Are millennials abandoning the GOP (or vice versa)? One a lot of core issues, the two groups just don't seem to agree (e.g. LGBTQ issues), and they also seem to have very different ethos. What are your thoughts.

For more, see: http://www.theguardian.com...
I live in like, liberaltropolis (I don't even think my province has a real conservative party.. just a Liberal one, and a few even more liberal separatist ones), so my experience is obviously contextual.. but this is definitively true for me. Like, the extent to which this is true in Liberal Canada is so much that I could seriously and confidently say that anyone who identified as a Republican in my school would probably be refused to be touched by 95% of the girls who attend.. unless they made some major deviation in position on social issues, especially women's issues. It's literally a dealbreaker. There are probably more gays than real conservatives in my town, lol.. :P
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