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Predict The Palin/Lieberman Debate

Johnicle
Posts: 888
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9/30/2008 7:48:44 AM
Posted: 8 years ago
I am honestly predicting that Lieberman is going to DESTROY Palin. If you've seen her in the Catie Courick interview, you'll know where I'm coming from.
Sweatingjojo
Posts: 83
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9/30/2008 8:41:02 AM
Posted: 8 years ago
I think that she will be destroyed, and will effectively end the McCain campaign. She certainly seemed like a great pick two weeks ago, but now, not so much.
brittwaller
Posts: 331
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9/30/2008 9:30:25 AM
Posted: 8 years ago
All Biden has to do is be nice and keep his answers short; Palin will hang herself with Kant-length sentences of no substance.
Don't I take care of them all?
JBlake
Posts: 4,634
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9/30/2008 3:34:44 PM
Posted: 8 years ago
I don't think there is a question on who is going to win. Palin couldn't even hold her own in an interview. However, I don't think this will mark the end of their ticket. Palin supporters will rationalize that debates don't matter. You can already here grumblings to this effect and we are still days away.
scissorhands7
Posts: 480
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9/30/2008 9:46:04 PM
Posted: 8 years ago
Personally the debate is set up for palin to come out with a win. I dont think it will be an outstanding victory.

My prediction is that the debate will be similar to Obama/McCain, mainly a draw.
I rock peas on my head, but don't call me a peahead, bees on my head but dont call me a beehead, bruce lees on my head but dont call me a lee head...
I hang out with an apple who loves self loathing....
Its my show I'm andy milonakis.
RoyLatham
Posts: 4,488
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10/1/2008 3:52:35 AM
Posted: 8 years ago
The dynamic of the discussions over Palin v. Biden is fascinating. Obama supporters argue that when it comes to the VP candidate that foreign policy experience is everything, because, after all, Palin is only "a heartbeat away." Palin indeed has no significant foreign policy experience. She does have substantial administrative experience, and substantial experience or issues of the energy and the environment. Note that past Presidents Kennedy, Carter, Reagan, Clinton and Bush had no foreign policy experience.

Obama supporter concurrently argue that experience is of virtually no importance for the Presidential candidate. Obama has no substantial experience in foreign policy, administration, energy, economics, or anything other than politics. Obama has been in the Senate for four years and has spent the majority of that running for president. The odd duality of experience being important for the vice president, but not for the president, is born out every day by the media, who pound Palin on intricacies of foreign policy, but give Obama a free pass. In the debate, Obama gave textbook liberal ideological answers, and that was just fine.

Palin supporters sometimes claim that all that matters is her ideology, but they seem to me to make that argument without a lot of conviction.

Each voter will have to decide the relative importance of ideology versus experience, and insofar as experience counts, what type of experience is the most important. Personally, I put ideology and experience at about equal importance, with administrative experience being the most important type. As a Naval officer, McCain has some administrative experience. Palin has a lot, Obama has none whatsoever. Campaigns are administered by campaign managers, Obama is the product being sold.

In the debate, I predict that (1) Obama supporters will point to every example of Biden's foreign policy experience as proof that he wins, (2) that no questions will be asked relative to administrative or executive experience, and (3) that Palin supporters will point to here beliefs as being the reason she turned in the better performance. Relative to (2), the press has absolutely no idea what to ask, since they have no experience on the matter.
Csafaii
Posts: 1
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10/1/2008 6:43:34 AM
Posted: 8 years ago
Mccain picking Palin as his VP is one of the most positives things that has happened for the Obama campaign.The woman is a joke.Whenever she doesn't haven't the luxury of speaking through campaign talking points,she becomes a blabbering,inarticulate, mess.Anyone actually listen to her interviews?SHE'S NOT SAYING ANYTING!Just a bunch of statements,without one bit of substance.Thursday night will be ugly.
Johnicle
Posts: 888
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10/1/2008 7:32:19 AM
Posted: 8 years ago
At 10/1/2008 3:52:35 AM, RoyLatham wrote:
The dynamic of the discussions over Palin v. Biden is fascinating. Obama supporters argue that when it comes to the VP candidate that foreign policy experience is everything, because, after all, Palin is only "a heartbeat away." Palin indeed has no significant foreign policy experience. She does have substantial administrative experience, and substantial experience or issues of the energy and the environment. Note that past Presidents Kennedy, Carter, Reagan, Clinton and Bush had no foreign policy experience.

Obama supporter concurrently argue that experience is of virtually no importance for the Presidential candidate. Obama has no substantial experience in foreign policy, administration, energy, economics, or anything other than politics. Obama has been in the Senate for four years and has spent the majority of that running for president. The odd duality of experience being important for the vice president, but not for the president, is born out every day by the media, who pound Palin on intricacies of foreign policy, but give Obama a free pass. In the debate, Obama gave textbook liberal ideological answers, and that was just fine.

Palin supporters sometimes claim that all that matters is her ideology, but they seem to me to make that argument without a lot of conviction.

Each voter will have to decide the relative importance of ideology versus experience, and insofar as experience counts, what type of experience is the most important. Personally, I put ideology and experience at about equal importance, with administrative experience being the most important type. As a Naval officer, McCain has some administrative experience. Palin has a lot, Obama has none whatsoever. Campaigns are administered by campaign managers, Obama is the product being sold.

In the debate, I predict that (1) Obama supporters will point to every example of Biden's foreign policy experience as proof that he wins, (2) that no questions will be asked relative to administrative or executive experience, and (3) that Palin supporters will point to here beliefs as being the reason she turned in the better performance. Relative to (2), the press has absolutely no idea what to ask, since they have no experience on the matter.

--> Well, As far as the experience goes, Obama may not have a whole lot at the national level but I'm a firm believer that having more expirience is not what is important, it's how you USE the expirience and thus far Palin hasn't seemed to USE it much because the value of the expirience is MUCH greater for Obama. He at least knows what he is talking about. (at least to a degree... HE knows what HE wants and that's important. It's like Palin doesn't know what she wants.)

But Bob Barr should be the next president!
brittwaller
Posts: 331
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10/1/2008 10:09:51 AM
Posted: 8 years ago
I don't think that Obama supporters or the media, etc, harp on Palin because of her lack of foreign policy experience, but because of her claims to the contrary, such as being able to see Russia from Alaska counts somehow. I mean, do you think she has any clue as to what most of McCain's policies are? I have seen no evidence to suggest so. The debate will not be on a teleprompter, and she will very likely make at least a few large gaffes. The McCain prep team is probably (hopefully?) drilling it into her head not to talk beyond the extreme minimum. She won't be able to say, "I'll get back to you on that." Do you really think she is intelligent enough for the job, in all seriousness?
Don't I take care of them all?
scissorhands7
Posts: 480
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10/1/2008 3:32:34 PM
Posted: 8 years ago
I dont think Palin has to exhibit much knowledge of foreign policy experience.

I personally think the less she is prepped the better she will do it. People respond much better to honest responses than prepped ones.
I rock peas on my head, but don't call me a peahead, bees on my head but dont call me a beehead, bruce lees on my head but dont call me a lee head...
I hang out with an apple who loves self loathing....
Its my show I'm andy milonakis.
Porlarta
Posts: 1
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10/2/2008 7:29:45 PM
Posted: 8 years ago
Im watching the debate right now and I gotta say its kind like pure destruction. Palin just doesnt have the attention span to see what Biden is talking acout. also she consistantly repeats her self. Oh, and i know this isnt really political but her canadian accent is incredibly annoying
s0m31john
Posts: 1,879
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10/2/2008 7:51:40 PM
Posted: 8 years ago
Well I started watching it, but I needed something more American. I decided to watch the second episode of the HBO Miniseries John Adams. More substance, freedom, and more educational.
scissorhands7
Posts: 480
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10/2/2008 7:58:54 PM
Posted: 8 years ago
Honestly, She won the debate. If you looked at the opinion polls (CNN)
You could see that Palin definetly had a big edge in the first part when talking about energy. Biden definetly had a slight edge on the second part when dealing on foreign policy. However Palin held her own and this was a victory.

Really when it comes down to it, I think Biden just wasn't as good articulating his points. He had good points, it just seemed as though he lost most of the mainstream audience when he started some of his senate talk. I completely understood what he was saying (and agreed with part of it), however I can guarantee you that mainstream america got lost. If you followed graphs on CNN you could see this to be the case.

I think when the opinion polls come out Palin will be declared the winner by 10%
It was more of a slight edge victory in my opinion.
I rock peas on my head, but don't call me a peahead, bees on my head but dont call me a beehead, bruce lees on my head but dont call me a lee head...
I hang out with an apple who loves self loathing....
Its my show I'm andy milonakis.
JBlake
Posts: 4,634
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10/2/2008 8:09:07 PM
Posted: 8 years ago
In terms of substance, Biden wins. But I think Mr. Hands brings up a good point in that some of the more technical governmental function speak was likely lost on those who don't know how it works.

His win was slight, which means the victory overall goes to Palin. She was able to hold her own well enough, which exceded the expectation. Biden didn't do as well as was expected, and Palin did better than expected.
Robert_Santurri
Posts: 106
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10/2/2008 8:27:46 PM
Posted: 8 years ago
At 10/2/2008 7:58:54 PM, scissorhands7 wrote:
Honestly, She won the debate. If you looked at the opinion polls (CNN)
You could see that Palin definetly had a big edge in the first part when talking about energy. Biden definetly had a slight edge on the second part when dealing on foreign policy. However Palin held her own and this was a victory.

Really when it comes down to it, I think Biden just wasn't as good articulating his points. He had good points, it just seemed as though he lost most of the mainstream audience when he started some of his senate talk. I completely understood what he was saying (and agreed with part of it), however I can guarantee you that mainstream america got lost. If you followed graphs on CNN you could see this to be the case.

I think when the opinion polls come out Palin will be declared the winner by 10%
It was more of a slight edge victory in my opinion.

Those CNN opinion polls huh?

Who fared better in the vice presidential debate?
Sen. Joe Biden 72% 64069
Gov. Sarah Palin 25% 22008
Neither 3% 2672
Total Votes: 88749

Joe Biden won this hands down. Sarah Palin was lucky he didn't crush her because if he did then he would of been called sexist.
"We cannot defend freedom abroad by deserting it at home."
-- Edward R. Murrow

"Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference."
-- Robert Frost
brittwaller
Posts: 331
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10/2/2008 8:35:17 PM
Posted: 8 years ago
I thought Biden was pretty much dead-on, especially after he warmed up. He, like Obama in the first debate, gets the win because of facts. She did do better than I expected, I must admit, insofar that she was able to speak in complete sentences. She displayed more personality, but also more hostility, than Biden. I think Biden knew if he engaged her attacks directly he would only get mad, so he did good to avoid that. But Biden knew exactly what he was talking about the whole time, and gave very specific examples of things, while she was rather abstract and purposely avoided answering the questions the moderator asked. Biden gets the actual win, Palin did good not to go up in flames (as the bar was set for), so the conservative base will probably say she got the win. Either way they will be pleased with her, I think. Her proposal to increase the power of the VP in legislative matters was quite disturbing.
Don't I take care of them all?
JBlake
Posts: 4,634
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10/2/2008 8:41:13 PM
Posted: 8 years ago
Not so much disturbing as a lack of knowledge about the basic functioning. Biden nailed her on that pretty well.

Her response to the moderator telling her she did not answer the question with something along the lines of 'Well I might not answer how the moderator likes, or the Senator likes...(etc)' will be played over and over again, with her supporters using it as evidence of her 'outsider' status.
scissorhands7
Posts: 480
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10/2/2008 10:10:57 PM
Posted: 8 years ago
Those CNN opinion polls huh?

Who fared better in the vice presidential debate?
Sen. Joe Biden 72% 64069
Gov. Sarah Palin 25% 22008
Neither 3% 2672
Total Votes: 88749

Joe Biden won this hands down. Sarah Palin was lucky he didn't crush her because if he did then he would of been called sexist.

I typically don't tend to trust polls with a margin of error larger than 3%
I rock peas on my head, but don't call me a peahead, bees on my head but dont call me a beehead, bruce lees on my head but dont call me a lee head...
I hang out with an apple who loves self loathing....
Its my show I'm andy milonakis.
Robert_Santurri
Posts: 106
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10/2/2008 10:24:22 PM
Posted: 8 years ago
At 10/2/2008 10:10:57 PM, scissorhands7 wrote:
Those CNN opinion polls huh?

Who fared better in the vice presidential debate?
Sen. Joe Biden 72% 64069
Gov. Sarah Palin 25% 22008
Neither 3% 2672
Total Votes: 88749

Joe Biden won this hands down. Sarah Palin was lucky he didn't crush her because if he did then he would of been called sexist.


I typically don't tend to trust polls with a margin of error larger than 3%

He won that poll by 47 points thus far, there is no 47% margin of error.

Sorry for you to face the facts but Sarah Palin did not win that debate.

The only thing she didn't do is accidently set the McCain campaign on fire by crashing in flames but that doesn't mean she deserves to win for not being a complete screwup.

She said things like:
"We can trust the leader of Al Queda" - I'm not kidding, she said that at one point.

"Drilling only leaves a small footprint." - So scissor, if and when you ever home would you mind if we leave a couple "small footprints" on your lawn?

She also avoided answering questions and instead kept going back to energy because she was being taken to school on foreign policy.

And even on energy she is wrong, Global Warming is most likely man made and if you don't believe that then certainly man helped it along. To say otherwise is ignorance.

Never mind some of the other stuff she spewed.
"We cannot defend freedom abroad by deserting it at home."
-- Edward R. Murrow

"Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference."
-- Robert Frost
scissorhands7
Posts: 480
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10/2/2008 10:25:27 PM
Posted: 8 years ago
At 10/2/2008 8:35:17 PM, brittwaller wrote:
I thought Biden was pretty much dead-on, especially after he warmed up. He, like Obama in the first debate, gets the win because of facts. She did do better than I expected, I must admit, insofar that she was able to speak in complete sentences. She displayed more personality, but also more hostility, than Biden. I think Biden knew if he engaged her attacks directly he would only get mad, so he did good to avoid that. But Biden knew exactly what he was talking about the whole time, and gave very specific examples of things, while she was rather abstract and purposely avoided answering the questions the moderator asked. Biden gets the actual win, Palin did good not to go up in flames (as the bar was set for), so the conservative base will probably say she got the win. Either way they will be pleased with her, I think. Her proposal to increase the power of the VP in legislative matters was quite disturbing.

I agree with britt, Biden definetly had the facts on his side, the only downside was he really wasn't the best speaker. He also had some odd blips like spending a lot of time at the home depot and just some verbal repititions and confusing talk.

Really he isn't half the speaker Obama is.

When it comes to facts Biden wins, but Sarah Palin held her own in her weak spot. Fact-wise I think Palin won on the first half of the debate, the polling graphs definetly showed she had some strong points in this first half. When it got down to foreign policy Biden did pretty well to try and link Bush with McCain. Its definetly a smart tactic for Obama/Biden. The only reason Biden didn't absolutely crush Palin in this part was because of his speaking blunders and bringing up complex senate speak which kinda lost the mainstream america. I just think Biden wasnt as good of speaker than Palin.

Overall I say this:

Facts:
Palin did better on first half
Biden did better on second half

Really Palin did much better than expectations, Biden did worse than expected (at least in my mind) on his strong suit. He definetly did have some resounding points when talking about his initiative on Kosovo and Darfur etc.

Some of the most interesting parts of the debate was Biden and Palins agreement on Homosexual Marriage and Homosexual Rights.

Additionally bringing up how screwed up the left behind act is (dumbest policy ever) was a good move for Palin as well.

Those were two things I didn't know about her.

So in the end, no knock out for either party in my opinion. However the same poll mentioned above stated that before 43% of voters thought Palin was qualified to lead our country before the debate and now 47% after.

I think the most important factors that will decide who wins this election are the following:

1. Whether the bill in the house is passed
2. Whether the economy stabilizes (which I dont think it will until late november early december maybe even into early 2009 (February?)
3. Whether economy stops being the main focus of news.
4. Whether John McCain can convince people that he is as qualified or Obama is not as qualified to handle the economy
5. The next presidential debates (if there are any knockout punches)
6. And really if any other things happen in the world

In my opinion Obama definetly has the momentum now, however it definetly can (and has) easily changed. There are those undecided people that I think will vote based on gut feeling come election day, and it also matters who turns up to the polls.

Either way this should be one interesting election
I rock peas on my head, but don't call me a peahead, bees on my head but dont call me a beehead, bruce lees on my head but dont call me a lee head...
I hang out with an apple who loves self loathing....
Its my show I'm andy milonakis.
scissorhands7
Posts: 480
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10/2/2008 10:45:12 PM
Posted: 8 years ago
He won that poll by 47 points thus far, there is no 47% margin of error.

Sorry for you to face the facts but Sarah Palin did not win that debate.

"the margin of error is not expressed as an "absolute" quantity; rather it is expressed as a "relative" quantity."

Additionally you might be interested to know that:

When a panel of uncommitted voters gathered by Fox News Channel and pollster Frank Luntz were asked for a show of hands on who won the debate, almost everyone picked Palin.

A click away on CNN, Soledad O'Brien asked another panel whether they had made up their mind as a result of the debate. Ten people raised their hands — one sided with McCain, and nine with Barack Obama.

Instant polls conducted by CBS and CNN about the debate reflected trends in overall opinion polls toward Obama the past couple of weeks.

A CBS News/Knowledge Networks Poll of uncommitted voters who watched the debate found 46 percent thinking Biden won, with 21 percent siding with Palin. A CNN poll found respondents judging Biden the winner by a 51 percent to 39 percent margin.

http://ap.google.com...

The only thing she didn't do is accidently set the McCain campaign on fire by crashing in flames but that doesn't mean she deserves to win for not being a complete screwup.

I agree, for most people she arrived into the neutral category instead of the negative.

She said things like:
"We can trust the leader of Al Queda" - I'm not kidding, she said that at one point.

In Obama/McCain campaign Obama called John McCain "Jim" and "Tom"

Speaking errors really dont mean anything.

Additionally Biden said he "spends quite a lot of time at the Home Depot"

"Drilling only leaves a small footprint." - So scissor, if and when you ever home would you mind if we leave a couple "small footprints" on your lawn?

I think anyone with complete sense in the matter of energy would truely advocate both drilling, using our oil reserves, and spending money on alternative energies. I'm for McCain on this issue due to his support of nuclear energy, it wont significantly reduce our foreign oil dependence, (at least not until fusion comes into play) but it will help environmentally which is a big factor for me.

She also avoided answering questions and instead kept going back to energy because she was being taken to school on foreign policy.

Exactly correct, I think you'll find that Obama used similar tactics in his debate when it came to foreign policy.

Also both candidates (pres.) used them when it came to the economy, they both have no clue how to fix it.

And even on energy she is wrong, Global Warming is most likely man made and if you don't believe that then certainly man helped it along. To say otherwise is ignorance.

No actually their is truth to the fact that part of it is cyclical. If you do some research I'm sure you'll find this to be correct. I agree the cycle is definetly being sped up and pushed beyond its limits because of man-made reasons. I dont think anyone with a brain would deny this.
I rock peas on my head, but don't call me a peahead, bees on my head but dont call me a beehead, bruce lees on my head but dont call me a lee head...
I hang out with an apple who loves self loathing....
Its my show I'm andy milonakis.
scissorhands7
Posts: 480
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10/3/2008 8:06:29 AM
Posted: 8 years ago
http://www.msnbc.msn.com...

Additionally, here's a good fact correction of the debate.
I rock peas on my head, but don't call me a peahead, bees on my head but dont call me a beehead, bruce lees on my head but dont call me a lee head...
I hang out with an apple who loves self loathing....
Its my show I'm andy milonakis.