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Democrats finally cede Appalachia

TN05
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8/4/2015 3:50:06 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
With the announcement of today's EPA regulations limiting power plants (in particular, coal ones), Democrats seem to finally have ceded one of their traditional strongholds: Appalachia. Ever since environmentalists have targeted coal plants, states like West Virginia (which voted for Carter twice, Dukakis, and Clinton twice) and Kentucky (which voted for Clinton twice) have shifted further and further to the right. In many of these areas, coal is literally the only job that pays well. Appalachia as a whole is a place with a lot of culture, but one mired by great poverty and drug abuse. Like in urban ghettos, the brightest minds leave as soon as they can - unlike urban ghettos, however, nobody cares. If Republicans were aiming to eliminate the most viable inner-city jobs, Democrats would raise a fit. However, because Appalachia doesn't vote for them anymore, they don't care.

This is, however, a severe miscalculation by Democrats. The only people this move appeals to are environmentalists and affluent urban/suburban liberals. These people already vote Democratic, and exist mostly in blue states. The people this move doesn't appeal to is anyone who has to worry about an electric bill, and people who have jobs or know people who have jobs in coal. Appalachia extends into Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia - three of the most important swing states - as well as North Carolina and Virginia. Pennsylvania is perhaps the biggest prize - the state has been slowing trending towards the GOP for years, and Romney won the Pittsburgh metro area in 2012. By alienating the voters in western PA - who are already trending to the GOP in droves - Obama places one of the most valuable light-blue states at risk of flipping. If a Republican were to win Pennsylvania, all they need to win is Ohio (now easier) and Florida, as well as all the Romney states.

Liberal Democrats will be temporarily pleased by this move. But in trying to appease them, Obama may just have stabbed his party in the foot.
Skepsikyma
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8/4/2015 4:05:49 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/4/2015 3:50:06 AM, TN05 wrote:
With the announcement of today's EPA regulations limiting power plants (in particular, coal ones), Democrats seem to finally have ceded one of their traditional strongholds: Appalachia. Ever since environmentalists have targeted coal plants, states like West Virginia (which voted for Carter twice, Dukakis, and Clinton twice) and Kentucky (which voted for Clinton twice) have shifted further and further to the right. In many of these areas, coal is literally the only job that pays well. Appalachia as a whole is a place with a lot of culture, but one mired by great poverty and drug abuse. Like in urban ghettos, the brightest minds leave as soon as they can - unlike urban ghettos, however, nobody cares. If Republicans were aiming to eliminate the most viable inner-city jobs, Democrats would raise a fit. However, because Appalachia doesn't vote for them anymore, they don't care.

This is, however, a severe miscalculation by Democrats. The only people this move appeals to are environmentalists and affluent urban/suburban liberals. These people already vote Democratic, and exist mostly in blue states. The people this move doesn't appeal to is anyone who has to worry about an electric bill, and people who have jobs or know people who have jobs in coal. Appalachia extends into Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia - three of the most important swing states - as well as North Carolina and Virginia. Pennsylvania is perhaps the biggest prize - the state has been slowing trending towards the GOP for years, and Romney won the Pittsburgh metro area in 2012. By alienating the voters in western PA - who are already trending to the GOP in droves - Obama places one of the most valuable light-blue states at risk of flipping. If a Republican were to win Pennsylvania, all they need to win is Ohio (now easier) and Florida, as well as all the Romney states.

If the Republicans nominate someone like Kasich, they might have a chance. But if swing voters in Pennsylvania catch a whiff of evangelical Christianity, they will pull the blue lever. Republicans own the very rural areas of Pennsylvania already; they need to win the lower-middle class, mildly rural suburbs by appealing to moderates. Whether they can win in Pennsylvania depends more on the candidate than it does on policy.
"The Collectivist experiment is thoroughly suited (in appearance at least) to the Capitalist society which it proposes to replace. It works with the existing machinery of Capitalism, talks and thinks in the existing terms of Capitalism, appeals to just those appetites which Capitalism has aroused, and ridicules as fantastic and unheard-of just those things in society the memory of which Capitalism has killed among men wherever the blight of it has spread."
- Hilaire Belloc -
16kadams
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8/4/2015 10:33:07 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/4/2015 4:05:49 AM, Skepsikyma wrote:
At 8/4/2015 3:50:06 AM, TN05 wrote:
With the announcement of today's EPA regulations limiting power plants (in particular, coal ones), Democrats seem to finally have ceded one of their traditional strongholds: Appalachia. Ever since environmentalists have targeted coal plants, states like West Virginia (which voted for Carter twice, Dukakis, and Clinton twice) and Kentucky (which voted for Clinton twice) have shifted further and further to the right. In many of these areas, coal is literally the only job that pays well. Appalachia as a whole is a place with a lot of culture, but one mired by great poverty and drug abuse. Like in urban ghettos, the brightest minds leave as soon as they can - unlike urban ghettos, however, nobody cares. If Republicans were aiming to eliminate the most viable inner-city jobs, Democrats would raise a fit. However, because Appalachia doesn't vote for them anymore, they don't care.

This is, however, a severe miscalculation by Democrats. The only people this move appeals to are environmentalists and affluent urban/suburban liberals. These people already vote Democratic, and exist mostly in blue states. The people this move doesn't appeal to is anyone who has to worry about an electric bill, and people who have jobs or know people who have jobs in coal. Appalachia extends into Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia - three of the most important swing states - as well as North Carolina and Virginia. Pennsylvania is perhaps the biggest prize - the state has been slowing trending towards the GOP for years, and Romney won the Pittsburgh metro area in 2012. By alienating the voters in western PA - who are already trending to the GOP in droves - Obama places one of the most valuable light-blue states at risk of flipping. If a Republican were to win Pennsylvania, all they need to win is Ohio (now easier) and Florida, as well as all the Romney states.

If the Republicans nominate someone like Kasich, they might have a chance. But if swing voters in Pennsylvania catch a whiff of evangelical Christianity, they will pull the blue lever. Republicans own the very rural areas of Pennsylvania already; they need to win the lower-middle class, mildly rural suburbs by appealing to moderates. Whether they can win in Pennsylvania depends more on the candidate than it does on policy.

<333333333333

Only thing I don't like is his whole "balanced budgets make jobs", which I don't think they do. But at least the way he cuts it is not harmful (i.e. reduce waste).
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https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
16kadams
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8/4/2015 10:33:49 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/4/2015 4:05:49 AM, Skepsikyma wrote:
At 8/4/2015 3:50:06 AM, TN05 wrote:
With the announcement of today's EPA regulations limiting power plants (in particular, coal ones), Democrats seem to finally have ceded one of their traditional strongholds: Appalachia. Ever since environmentalists have targeted coal plants, states like West Virginia (which voted for Carter twice, Dukakis, and Clinton twice) and Kentucky (which voted for Clinton twice) have shifted further and further to the right. In many of these areas, coal is literally the only job that pays well. Appalachia as a whole is a place with a lot of culture, but one mired by great poverty and drug abuse. Like in urban ghettos, the brightest minds leave as soon as they can - unlike urban ghettos, however, nobody cares. If Republicans were aiming to eliminate the most viable inner-city jobs, Democrats would raise a fit. However, because Appalachia doesn't vote for them anymore, they don't care.

This is, however, a severe miscalculation by Democrats. The only people this move appeals to are environmentalists and affluent urban/suburban liberals. These people already vote Democratic, and exist mostly in blue states. The people this move doesn't appeal to is anyone who has to worry about an electric bill, and people who have jobs or know people who have jobs in coal. Appalachia extends into Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia - three of the most important swing states - as well as North Carolina and Virginia. Pennsylvania is perhaps the biggest prize - the state has been slowing trending towards the GOP for years, and Romney won the Pittsburgh metro area in 2012. By alienating the voters in western PA - who are already trending to the GOP in droves - Obama places one of the most valuable light-blue states at risk of flipping. If a Republican were to win Pennsylvania, all they need to win is Ohio (now easier) and Florida, as well as all the Romney states.

If the Republicans nominate someone like Kasich, they might have a chance. But if swing voters in Pennsylvania catch a whiff of evangelical Christianity, they will pull the blue lever. Republicans own the very rural areas of Pennsylvania already; they need to win the lower-middle class, mildly rural suburbs by appealing to moderates. Whether they can win in Pennsylvania depends more on the candidate than it does on policy.

Romney did as well in PA as he did in NV using half the money, so I think PA is actually flippable.
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
Skepsikyma
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8/5/2015 2:29:11 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/4/2015 10:38:15 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
Isn't natural gas alot cheaper than coal?

Yeah, it's a big job maker and it's more cheap, but Republicans are taking heat for being hypocrites on this issue; Corbett basically stripped local municipalities of zoning rights in order to make things easier for drilling companies. He gave a moratorium to my area, because it's filled with rich people, but they're still pissed off about it. Apparently, Republicans are all about decentralization and local government until it gets in the way of their biggest campaign donors. That's a landmine that any politician here will have to step carefully around.
"The Collectivist experiment is thoroughly suited (in appearance at least) to the Capitalist society which it proposes to replace. It works with the existing machinery of Capitalism, talks and thinks in the existing terms of Capitalism, appeals to just those appetites which Capitalism has aroused, and ridicules as fantastic and unheard-of just those things in society the memory of which Capitalism has killed among men wherever the blight of it has spread."
- Hilaire Belloc -
Skepsikyma
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8/5/2015 2:31:02 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/4/2015 10:33:49 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 8/4/2015 4:05:49 AM, Skepsikyma wrote:
At 8/4/2015 3:50:06 AM, TN05 wrote:
With the announcement of today's EPA regulations limiting power plants (in particular, coal ones), Democrats seem to finally have ceded one of their traditional strongholds: Appalachia. Ever since environmentalists have targeted coal plants, states like West Virginia (which voted for Carter twice, Dukakis, and Clinton twice) and Kentucky (which voted for Clinton twice) have shifted further and further to the right. In many of these areas, coal is literally the only job that pays well. Appalachia as a whole is a place with a lot of culture, but one mired by great poverty and drug abuse. Like in urban ghettos, the brightest minds leave as soon as they can - unlike urban ghettos, however, nobody cares. If Republicans were aiming to eliminate the most viable inner-city jobs, Democrats would raise a fit. However, because Appalachia doesn't vote for them anymore, they don't care.

This is, however, a severe miscalculation by Democrats. The only people this move appeals to are environmentalists and affluent urban/suburban liberals. These people already vote Democratic, and exist mostly in blue states. The people this move doesn't appeal to is anyone who has to worry about an electric bill, and people who have jobs or know people who have jobs in coal. Appalachia extends into Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia - three of the most important swing states - as well as North Carolina and Virginia. Pennsylvania is perhaps the biggest prize - the state has been slowing trending towards the GOP for years, and Romney won the Pittsburgh metro area in 2012. By alienating the voters in western PA - who are already trending to the GOP in droves - Obama places one of the most valuable light-blue states at risk of flipping. If a Republican were to win Pennsylvania, all they need to win is Ohio (now easier) and Florida, as well as all the Romney states.

If the Republicans nominate someone like Kasich, they might have a chance. But if swing voters in Pennsylvania catch a whiff of evangelical Christianity, they will pull the blue lever. Republicans own the very rural areas of Pennsylvania already; they need to win the lower-middle class, mildly rural suburbs by appealing to moderates. Whether they can win in Pennsylvania depends more on the candidate than it does on policy.

Romney did as well in PA as he did in NV using half the money, so I think PA is actually flippable.

Oh it is, by a candidate that hasn't tied themselves to strictly to social issues/silly stuff like Benghazi. Romney was pretty measured, so he did better than most would have.
"The Collectivist experiment is thoroughly suited (in appearance at least) to the Capitalist society which it proposes to replace. It works with the existing machinery of Capitalism, talks and thinks in the existing terms of Capitalism, appeals to just those appetites which Capitalism has aroused, and ridicules as fantastic and unheard-of just those things in society the memory of which Capitalism has killed among men wherever the blight of it has spread."
- Hilaire Belloc -
16kadams
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8/5/2015 3:25:06 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/5/2015 2:31:02 AM, Skepsikyma wrote:
At 8/4/2015 10:33:49 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 8/4/2015 4:05:49 AM, Skepsikyma wrote:
At 8/4/2015 3:50:06 AM, TN05 wrote:
With the announcement of today's EPA regulations limiting power plants (in particular, coal ones), Democrats seem to finally have ceded one of their traditional strongholds: Appalachia. Ever since environmentalists have targeted coal plants, states like West Virginia (which voted for Carter twice, Dukakis, and Clinton twice) and Kentucky (which voted for Clinton twice) have shifted further and further to the right. In many of these areas, coal is literally the only job that pays well. Appalachia as a whole is a place with a lot of culture, but one mired by great poverty and drug abuse. Like in urban ghettos, the brightest minds leave as soon as they can - unlike urban ghettos, however, nobody cares. If Republicans were aiming to eliminate the most viable inner-city jobs, Democrats would raise a fit. However, because Appalachia doesn't vote for them anymore, they don't care.

This is, however, a severe miscalculation by Democrats. The only people this move appeals to are environmentalists and affluent urban/suburban liberals. These people already vote Democratic, and exist mostly in blue states. The people this move doesn't appeal to is anyone who has to worry about an electric bill, and people who have jobs or know people who have jobs in coal. Appalachia extends into Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia - three of the most important swing states - as well as North Carolina and Virginia. Pennsylvania is perhaps the biggest prize - the state has been slowing trending towards the GOP for years, and Romney won the Pittsburgh metro area in 2012. By alienating the voters in western PA - who are already trending to the GOP in droves - Obama places one of the most valuable light-blue states at risk of flipping. If a Republican were to win Pennsylvania, all they need to win is Ohio (now easier) and Florida, as well as all the Romney states.

If the Republicans nominate someone like Kasich, they might have a chance. But if swing voters in Pennsylvania catch a whiff of evangelical Christianity, they will pull the blue lever. Republicans own the very rural areas of Pennsylvania already; they need to win the lower-middle class, mildly rural suburbs by appealing to moderates. Whether they can win in Pennsylvania depends more on the candidate than it does on policy.

Romney did as well in PA as he did in NV using half the money, so I think PA is actually flippable.

Oh it is, by a candidate that hasn't tied themselves to strictly to social issues/silly stuff like Benghazi. Romney was pretty measured, so he did better than most would have.

I think Jeb and Kasich could flip it. PA maybe (if he chooses Kasich as VP) and avoids social issues. I think his stance on SSM was pretty moderate (I disagree w. supreme court, but whatever just accept the decision and let's talk about more pressing issues). I don't see any other candidates flipping it. And I think those three are the most electable, too.
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
1harderthanyouthink
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8/5/2015 8:39:27 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/4/2015 4:05:49 AM, Skepsikyma wrote:
At 8/4/2015 3:50:06 AM, TN05 wrote:
With the announcement of today's EPA regulations limiting power plants (in particular, coal ones), Democrats seem to finally have ceded one of their traditional strongholds: Appalachia. Ever since environmentalists have targeted coal plants, states like West Virginia (which voted for Carter twice, Dukakis, and Clinton twice) and Kentucky (which voted for Clinton twice) have shifted further and further to the right. In many of these areas, coal is literally the only job that pays well. Appalachia as a whole is a place with a lot of culture, but one mired by great poverty and drug abuse. Like in urban ghettos, the brightest minds leave as soon as they can - unlike urban ghettos, however, nobody cares. If Republicans were aiming to eliminate the most viable inner-city jobs, Democrats would raise a fit. However, because Appalachia doesn't vote for them anymore, they don't care.

This is, however, a severe miscalculation by Democrats. The only people this move appeals to are environmentalists and affluent urban/suburban liberals. These people already vote Democratic, and exist mostly in blue states. The people this move doesn't appeal to is anyone who has to worry about an electric bill, and people who have jobs or know people who have jobs in coal. Appalachia extends into Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia - three of the most important swing states - as well as North Carolina and Virginia. Pennsylvania is perhaps the biggest prize - the state has been slowing trending towards the GOP for years, and Romney won the Pittsburgh metro area in 2012. By alienating the voters in western PA - who are already trending to the GOP in droves - Obama places one of the most valuable light-blue states at risk of flipping. If a Republican were to win Pennsylvania, all they need to win is Ohio (now easier) and Florida, as well as all the Romney states.

If the Republicans nominate someone like Kasich

But you know they won't be smart like that XD.
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imabench
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8/5/2015 10:21:39 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/4/2015 3:50:06 AM, TN05 wrote:

Liberal Democrats will be temporarily pleased by this move. But in trying to appease them, Obama may just have stabbed his party in the foot.

First off you don't stab someone in the foot, genius, you shoot them in the foot

Secondly, this pales in comparison to what Trump is doing to his party with the Mexican vote. All the outreach that Rubio, Bush, Cruz, and even Paul have done to try to woo hispanic voters was systematically undone with Trump's comments. THAT'S what shooting themselves in the foot looks like.

Third, you cant cede something you dont have in the first place.... West Virginia already had the lowest approval of Obama in all 50 states, and apart from Virginia, the entire rest of the Appalachian region voted for the GOP last election. If they didnt vote for Obama in the first place then they clearly arent his nor any other Democrat to cede to the GOP.

Fourth, this may be a surprise, but Obama isnt running for reelection. Hillary is more then allowed to distance herself from the policy to try to court voters in those states if he wants to try that route. She wasn't even campaigning on implementing a program like this in the first place and she isnt a fierce defender of the policies either
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TN05
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8/5/2015 11:25:37 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/5/2015 10:21:39 PM, imabench wrote:
At 8/4/2015 3:50:06 AM, TN05 wrote:

Liberal Democrats will be temporarily pleased by this move. But in trying to appease them, Obama may just have stabbed his party in the foot.

First off you don't stab someone in the foot, genius, you shoot them in the foot

Typo

Secondly, this pales in comparison to what Trump is doing to his party with the Mexican vote. All the outreach that Rubio, Bush, Cruz, and even Paul have done to try to woo hispanic voters was systematically undone with Trump's comments. THAT'S what shooting themselves in the foot looks like.

Polls aren't showing that out.

Third, you cant cede something you dont have in the first place.... West Virginia already had the lowest approval of Obama in all 50 states, and apart from Virginia, the entire rest of the Appalachian region voted for the GOP last election. If they didnt vote for Obama in the first place then they clearly arent his nor any other Democrat to cede to the GOP.

Appalachia includes southeastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania, western Virginia, western NC, and northern Georgia. 25 million people are in the region.

Fourth, this may be a surprise, but Obama isnt running for reelection. Hillary is more then allowed to distance herself from the policy to try to court voters in those states if he wants to try that route.

She supports the policy. Why would she go any better?

She wasn't even campaigning on implementing a program like this in the first place and she isnt a fierce defender of the policies either

She supports it, though.
Skepsikyma
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8/6/2015 12:02:59 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/5/2015 3:25:06 AM, 16kadams wrote:
At 8/5/2015 2:31:02 AM, Skepsikyma wrote:
At 8/4/2015 10:33:49 PM, 16kadams wrote:

Romney did as well in PA as he did in NV using half the money, so I think PA is actually flippable.

Oh it is, by a candidate that hasn't tied themselves to strictly to social issues/silly stuff like Benghazi. Romney was pretty measured, so he did better than most would have.

I think Jeb and Kasich could flip it. PA maybe (if he chooses Kasich as VP) and avoids social issues. I think his stance on SSM was pretty moderate (I disagree w. supreme court, but whatever just accept the decision and let's talk about more pressing issues). I don't see any other candidates flipping it. And I think those three are the most electable, too.

Jeb... ehhhh. The man should really change his name, lol. It's his biggest stumbling block.
"The Collectivist experiment is thoroughly suited (in appearance at least) to the Capitalist society which it proposes to replace. It works with the existing machinery of Capitalism, talks and thinks in the existing terms of Capitalism, appeals to just those appetites which Capitalism has aroused, and ridicules as fantastic and unheard-of just those things in society the memory of which Capitalism has killed among men wherever the blight of it has spread."
- Hilaire Belloc -
imabench
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8/6/2015 12:11:11 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/5/2015 11:25:37 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 8/5/2015 10:21:39 PM, imabench wrote:
At 8/4/2015 3:50:06 AM, TN05 wrote:

Liberal Democrats will be temporarily pleased by this move. But in trying to appease them, Obama may just have stabbed his party in the foot.

First off you don't stab someone in the foot, genius, you shoot them in the foot

Typo

Secondly, this pales in comparison to what Trump is doing to his party with the Mexican vote. All the outreach that Rubio, Bush, Cruz, and even Paul have done to try to woo hispanic voters was systematically undone with Trump's comments. THAT'S what shooting themselves in the foot looks like.

Polls aren't showing that out.

http://www.washingtonpost.com...

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com...

"Latino voters say his candidacy is further damaging the Republican Party's reputation among Latinos. According to the same poll, 69 percent of Latinos said Trump is hurting the party's image compared to 12 percent who believe Trump has benefitted the GOP."

Third, you cant cede something you dont have in the first place.... West Virginia already had the lowest approval of Obama in all 50 states, and apart from Virginia, the entire rest of the Appalachian region voted for the GOP last election. If they didnt vote for Obama in the first place then they clearly arent his nor any other Democrat to cede to the GOP.

Appalachia includes southeastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania, western Virginia, western NC, and northern Georgia. 25 million people are in the region.

A larger majority of the populations in all of those states dont lie in those regions though. PN, VA, and NC all have a majority of their populations close to the Atlantic and away from Appalachia, and Georgia hasnt gone Blue since 1992, which was over 20 years ago.

Fourth, this may be a surprise, but Obama isnt running for reelection. Hillary is more then allowed to distance herself from the policy to try to court voters in those states if he wants to try that route.

She supports the policy. Why would she go any better?

She wasn't even campaigning on implementing a program like this in the first place and she isnt a fierce defender of the policies either

She supports it, though.

Supporting it and actually advocating for it are two very different things.
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"
Geogeer: "Nobody is dumb enough to become my protege."

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
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imabench
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8/6/2015 12:12:02 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/6/2015 12:02:59 AM, Skepsikyma wrote:
At 8/5/2015 3:25:06 AM, 16kadams wrote:
At 8/5/2015 2:31:02 AM, Skepsikyma wrote:
At 8/4/2015 10:33:49 PM, 16kadams wrote:

Romney did as well in PA as he did in NV using half the money, so I think PA is actually flippable.

Oh it is, by a candidate that hasn't tied themselves to strictly to social issues/silly stuff like Benghazi. Romney was pretty measured, so he did better than most would have.

I think Jeb and Kasich could flip it. PA maybe (if he chooses Kasich as VP) and avoids social issues. I think his stance on SSM was pretty moderate (I disagree w. supreme court, but whatever just accept the decision and let's talk about more pressing issues). I don't see any other candidates flipping it. And I think those three are the most electable, too.

Jeb... ehhhh. The man should really change his name, lol. It's his biggest stumbling block.

+1. Its really easy to accuse someone of being like George Bush when that person is quite literally the brother of George Bush
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"
Geogeer: "Nobody is dumb enough to become my protege."

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
16kadams
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8/6/2015 12:25:15 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/6/2015 12:02:59 AM, Skepsikyma wrote:
At 8/5/2015 3:25:06 AM, 16kadams wrote:
At 8/5/2015 2:31:02 AM, Skepsikyma wrote:
At 8/4/2015 10:33:49 PM, 16kadams wrote:

Romney did as well in PA as he did in NV using half the money, so I think PA is actually flippable.

Oh it is, by a candidate that hasn't tied themselves to strictly to social issues/silly stuff like Benghazi. Romney was pretty measured, so he did better than most would have.

I think Jeb and Kasich could flip it. PA maybe (if he chooses Kasich as VP) and avoids social issues. I think his stance on SSM was pretty moderate (I disagree w. supreme court, but whatever just accept the decision and let's talk about more pressing issues). I don't see any other candidates flipping it. And I think those three are the most electable, too.

Jeb... ehhhh. The man should really change his name, lol. It's his biggest stumbling block.

Pretty sure he has lower favorables than his brother, so it may not be his name that is the issue
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https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
TN05
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8/6/2015 12:54:54 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/6/2015 12:11:11 AM, imabench wrote:
At 8/5/2015 11:25:37 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 8/5/2015 10:21:39 PM, imabench wrote:
At 8/4/2015 3:50:06 AM, TN05 wrote:

Liberal Democrats will be temporarily pleased by this move. But in trying to appease them, Obama may just have stabbed his party in the foot.

First off you don't stab someone in the foot, genius, you shoot them in the foot

Typo

Secondly, this pales in comparison to what Trump is doing to his party with the Mexican vote. All the outreach that Rubio, Bush, Cruz, and even Paul have done to try to woo hispanic voters was systematically undone with Trump's comments. THAT'S what shooting themselves in the foot looks like.

Polls aren't showing that out.

http://www.washingtonpost.com...

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com...

"Latino voters say his candidacy is further damaging the Republican Party's reputation among Latinos. According to the same poll, 69 percent of Latinos said Trump is hurting the party's image compared to 12 percent who believe Trump has benefitted the GOP."

I'm talking about election polls.

Third, you cant cede something you dont have in the first place.... West Virginia already had the lowest approval of Obama in all 50 states, and apart from Virginia, the entire rest of the Appalachian region voted for the GOP last election. If they didnt vote for Obama in the first place then they clearly arent his nor any other Democrat to cede to the GOP.

Appalachia includes southeastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania, western Virginia, western NC, and northern Georgia. 25 million people are in the region.

A larger majority of the populations in all of those states dont lie in those regions though. PN, VA, and NC all have a majority of their populations close to the Atlantic and away from Appalachia, and Georgia hasnt gone Blue since 1992, which was over 20 years ago.

Sure they do. But alienating people in those states wouldn't help, right?

Fourth, this may be a surprise, but Obama isnt running for reelection. Hillary is more then allowed to distance herself from the policy to try to court voters in those states if he wants to try that route.

She supports the policy. Why would she go any better?

She wasn't even campaigning on implementing a program like this in the first place and she isnt a fierce defender of the policies either

She supports it, though.

Supporting it and actually advocating for it are two very different things.

It's a pretty big deal for her environmentalist donors.
imabench
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8/6/2015 2:10:00 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/6/2015 12:54:54 AM, TN05 wrote:
At 8/6/2015 12:11:11 AM, imabench wrote:
At 8/5/2015 11:25:37 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 8/5/2015 10:21:39 PM, imabench wrote:

Secondly, this pales in comparison to what Trump is doing to his party with the Hispanic vote. All the outreach that Rubio, Bush, Cruz, and even Paul have done to try to woo hispanic voters was systematically undone with Trump's comments. THAT'S what shooting themselves in the foot looks like.

Polls aren't showing that out.

http://www.washingtonpost.com...

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com...

"Latino voters say his candidacy is further damaging the Republican Party's reputation among Latinos. According to the same poll, 69 percent of Latinos said Trump is hurting the party's image compared to 12 percent who believe Trump has benefitted the GOP."

I'm talking about election polls.

But what I was talking about was the Hispanic vote, see the underlined part

Third, you cant cede something you dont have in the first place.... West Virginia already had the lowest approval of Obama in all 50 states, and apart from Virginia, the entire rest of the Appalachian region voted for the GOP last election. If they didnt vote for Obama in the first place then they clearly arent his nor any other Democrat to cede to the GOP.

Appalachia includes southeastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania, western Virginia, western NC, and northern Georgia. 25 million people are in the region.

A larger majority of the populations in all of those states dont lie in those regions though. PN, VA, and NC all have a majority of their populations close to the Atlantic and away from Appalachia, and Georgia hasnt gone Blue since 1992, which was over 20 years ago.

Sure they do. But alienating people in those states wouldn't help, right?

Well of course not but they dont control the electoral power of the states in question nor were those regions Democratic in the first place

Fourth, this may be a surprise, but Obama isnt running for reelection. Hillary is more then allowed to distance herself from the policy to try to court voters in those states if he wants to try that route.

She supports the policy. Why would she go any better?

She wasn't even campaigning on implementing a program like this in the first place and she isnt a fierce defender of the policies either

She supports it, though.

Supporting it and actually advocating for it are two very different things.

It's a pretty big deal for her environmentalist donors.

Who else do they have to support? No one on the GOP is going to run on a green platform and since Hillary is far and away the Dem leader the environmentalists dont really have much of an option over who to support
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