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GOP takes a 10 pt. generic lead

Volkov
Posts: 9,765
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8/31/2010 4:54:46 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
Most likely an outlier poll, though if it isn't, that's positively huge (mind you, it would require all those undecideds to stay as such). That'd be absolutely amazing for the GOP, and a bone-crushing defeat for the Dems.

But unless we start seeing other pollsters reflect the trend, and Gallup continues on with such a monumental lead, then, again: outlier poll.
juvanya
Posts: 613
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8/31/2010 9:25:21 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
doesnt look like an outlier at all. The democrats derserve what they got for being pansies. Whats sad is that Americans are so unbelievably dumb and are jst putting the previous screwups back in power. I dont think Im voting party on national level again. Helping the Obamination was enough.

*sigh*
Volkov
Posts: 9,765
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8/31/2010 9:45:43 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 8/31/2010 9:25:21 PM, juvanya wrote:
doesnt look like an outlier at all. The democrats derserve what they got for being pansies. Whats sad is that Americans are so unbelievably dumb and are jst putting the previous screwups back in power. I dont think Im voting party on national level again. Helping the Obamination was enough.

*sigh*

Spoken like a person who doesn't understand a single thing about polling. Clearly, your analysis is correct.
juvanya
Posts: 613
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8/31/2010 11:02:28 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 8/31/2010 9:45:43 PM, Volkov wrote:
At 8/31/2010 9:25:21 PM, juvanya wrote:
doesnt look like an outlier at all. The democrats derserve what they got for being pansies. Whats sad is that Americans are so unbelievably dumb and are jst putting the previous screwups back in power. I dont think Im voting party on national level again. Helping the Obamination was enough.

*sigh*

Spoken like a person who doesn't understand a single thing about polling. Clearly, your analysis is correct.

I know a lot about polling, sir. And there is no reason to say this is an outlier. The rest of what I wrote is irrelevant to polling.
Rob1Billion
Posts: 1,338
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9/1/2010 12:07:47 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 8/31/2010 11:46:21 PM, Zeitgeist wrote:
The sooner that the US regains a pro-American government and a pro-American president the better it will be for the USA.

I disagree 100%. Doing what's best for everyone is doing what's best for oneself. This goes for the individual as well as the collective. What you are describing, in your "fvck the rest of the world" attitude, is the basis for all evil: pride. North Korea exemplifies your attitude.
Master P is the end result of capitalism.
Zeitgeist
Posts: 430
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9/1/2010 12:33:53 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 9/1/2010 12:07:47 AM, Rob1Billion wrote:
At 8/31/2010 11:46:21 PM, Zeitgeist wrote:
The sooner that the US regains a pro-American government and a pro-American president the better it will be for the USA.

I disagree 100%. Doing what's best for everyone is doing what's best for oneself. This goes for the individual as well as the collective. What you are describing, in your "fvck the rest of the world" attitude, is the basis for all evil: pride. North Korea exemplifies your attitude.

There are several ways that I could reply to your observation ranging from a tirade to an observation about the shallowness of a reply based on the principle of argumentum ad hominem but instead I'll keep it simple and explain.

The government of a nation requires first and foremost focus on what's best for that nation. That does not mean ignoring the rest of the world, not exploiting nor blackmailing the rest of the world, but it does mean concentrating on what is best for that nation.

In this regard the administration that has Obama as its mouthpiece has singularly failed.

From the approach to illegal immigration to the abuse of the currency using The Fed out of political expediency is wrong.

The foreign policy is disgusting and based on appeasement, decisions made where corruption has not just been evident but blatant are wrong in every possible way from going against natural justice to actual breaking of law.

The abuse of power by Pelosi is monumental, in short history will show the whole period of Obama-ism as horrifying in the audacity and extent of the abuse of power in a way that was against the ebst interests of the nation and its people.

People voted Obama out of a want for change. Change from the conflict and difficulties that they thought were instigated by the policies and actions of previous administration but in fact were difficulties that the previous administration confronted rather than acquiesced which had been the Clinton way.

They voted for change. They certainly got it.
InsertNameHere
Posts: 15,699
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9/1/2010 1:07:42 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
Last thing the US needs is another warmonger as president. Bush was exactly that and deepened the US debt and got them into several endless wars. At least Obama is trying to make that situation better although he could do better with trying to solve the problem of debt.
I-am-a-panda
Posts: 15,380
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9/1/2010 1:52:56 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 9/1/2010 1:07:42 AM, InsertNameHere wrote:
Last thing the US needs is another warmonger as president. Bush was exactly that and deepened the US debt and got them into several endless wars. At least Obama is trying to make that situation better although he could do better with trying to solve the problem of debt.

There's 2 and one is basically over.
Pizza. I have enormous respect for Pizza.
innomen
Posts: 10,052
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9/1/2010 1:59:39 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 9/1/2010 1:07:42 AM, InsertNameHere wrote:
Last thing the US needs is another warmonger as president. Bush was exactly that and deepened the US debt and got them into several endless wars. At least Obama is trying to make that situation better although he could do better with trying to solve the problem of debt.


REALLY? DO YOU THINK SO?!
Volkov
Posts: 9,765
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9/1/2010 2:46:04 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 8/31/2010 11:02:28 PM, juvanya wrote:
I know a lot about polling, sir. And there is no reason to say this is an outlier. The rest of what I wrote is irrelevant to polling.

Really. Tell me - do you even know what characterizes an outlier poll, juvanya?
Danielle
Posts: 21,330
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9/1/2010 2:58:42 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 8/31/2010 11:46:21 PM, Zeitgeist wrote:
The sooner that the US regains a pro-American government and a pro-American president the better it will be for the USA.

What's pro American?
President of DDO
lovelife
Posts: 14,629
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9/1/2010 3:06:10 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 9/1/2010 2:58:42 PM, theLwerd wrote:
At 8/31/2010 11:46:21 PM, Zeitgeist wrote:
The sooner that the US regains a pro-American government and a pro-American president the better it will be for the USA.

What's pro American?

Anti-uniqueness under the guise of diversity because of multiple races <that only got here from slavery cruelty rape etc.>
Without Royal there is a hole inside of me, I have no choice but to leave
innomen
Posts: 10,052
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9/1/2010 3:07:40 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 9/1/2010 3:06:10 PM, lovelife wrote:
At 9/1/2010 2:58:42 PM, theLwerd wrote:
At 8/31/2010 11:46:21 PM, Zeitgeist wrote:
The sooner that the US regains a pro-American government and a pro-American president the better it will be for the USA.

What's pro American?

Anti-uniqueness under the guise of diversity because of multiple races <that only got here from slavery cruelty rape etc.>

*THREAD DERAILMENT ALERT*
juvanya
Posts: 613
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9/1/2010 9:55:15 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 9/1/2010 2:46:04 PM, Volkov wrote:
At 8/31/2010 11:02:28 PM, juvanya wrote:
I know a lot about polling, sir. And there is no reason to say this is an outlier. The rest of what I wrote is irrelevant to polling.

Really. Tell me - do you even know what characterizes an outlier poll, juvanya?

Well in terms of regular data, an outlier would be more than 1.5 times the IQR. I dont see how thats really possible here. Its a bit of a stretch, but within the bounds of variance.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...
0, 1, 4, 6, 6, 7, 10
Med = 6
Q1 = 2.5
Q3 = 6.5
IQR = 4
Outliers > 10.5 if i remember how to do this correctly

Calculator says its not an outlier either.

Then Nate Silver:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...

He says it might be an outlier, but implies that another poll would probably be around +7 and that makes this not really far out. Its really at the horizon, but its no outlier.
Volkov
Posts: 9,765
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9/2/2010 5:58:47 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 9/1/2010 9:55:15 PM, juvanya wrote:
Its really at the horizon, but its no outlier.

Mhm, it's just below the line, eh? Because being "really at the horizon" doesn't make it an outlier.

Given that there are no other pollsters showing such a large lead, nor have even shown the kind of trend that this Gallup has, and that there really is no official mathematical number to say its an outlier poll (it's more than just numbers, but of course you'd know that), I'm sticking by my assertion that it is an OUTLIER, until follow-up pollsters prove it isn't.
mongoose
Posts: 3,500
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9/2/2010 7:38:19 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 9/2/2010 5:58:47 PM, Volkov wrote:
At 9/1/2010 9:55:15 PM, juvanya wrote:
Its really at the horizon, but its no outlier.

Mhm, it's just below the line, eh? Because being "really at the horizon" doesn't make it an outlier.

Given that there are no other pollsters showing such a large lead, nor have even shown the kind of trend that this Gallup has, and that there really is no official mathematical number to say its an outlier poll (it's more than just numbers, but of course you'd know that), I'm sticking by my assertion that it is an OUTLIER, until follow-up pollsters prove it isn't.

Do you not understand statistics? The rule for it to be an outlier is to be at least 10.5, given the data by RealClearPolitics, which has several different polls. While it is the highest, it is NOT an outlier. The other polls have shown that the Gallup poll is within 1.5 times the IQR of the median, which is all it needs to not be an outlier.
It is odd when one's capacity for compassion is measured not in what he is willing to do by his own time, effort, and property, but what he will force others to do with their own property instead.
juvanya
Posts: 613
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9/2/2010 9:25:00 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 9/2/2010 5:58:47 PM, Volkov wrote:
At 9/1/2010 9:55:15 PM, juvanya wrote:
Its really at the horizon, but its no outlier.

Mhm, it's just below the line, eh? Because being "really at the horizon" doesn't make it an outlier.

Given that there are no other pollsters showing such a large lead, nor have even shown the kind of trend that this Gallup has, and that there really is no official mathematical number to say its an outlier poll (it's more than just numbers, but of course you'd know that), I'm sticking by my assertion that it is an OUTLIER, until follow-up pollsters prove it isn't.

And youre asking me if I know anything about statistics when I just showed you how to do the "problem".