Total Posts:18|Showing Posts:1-18
Jump to topic:

2016 demographic scenarios

thett3
Posts: 14,345
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
8/28/2015 1:44:01 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
This is a really cool tool that allows you to input turnout and percentage of the vote for each racial group and watch the results.

A few interesting takeaways from playing with it for a while:

-It seems democrats really DO have an electoral college advantage (although not nearly as big as the "blue wall" theory suggests). Most of the realistic scenarios I've been playing around, if the vote is really close (like a point or so) the democrats tend to win.

-The Hispanic vote really doesn't matter much to Republicans. There's a lot of talk about Bush winning 40% of Hispanics in 2004. Had Romney gotten 40%, he would've only picked up Florida--the closest state in 2012. With everything else equal, Republicans would have to win 63% of the Hispanic vote (so better than they do with whites) for it to carry them to an electoral college victory. Increasing the share of only the white vote by 3.5% gets Republicans to the white house. With literally 0 hispanic votes, if the Republican share of the white vote increased increased 5.5% they would still win. Obviously having Hispanic votes doesn't hurt, but their significance towards winning the election is overblown--at least in the short term.

-It seems generally from playing around with this that the path to victory for the GOP is to win more white voters. Completely unrealistic scenarios like Republicans winning 25% of the black vote or 50% of the Hispanic vote fail to get them victory. Comparatively small increases in the white vote flip a lot more states.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
TBR
Posts: 9,991
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
8/28/2015 2:40:52 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Thanks for the link.

That the GOP is "giving up" on Hispanics seems about right. At this point, I don't see how they reverse the problem they have at this point.
TBR
Posts: 9,991
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
8/28/2015 2:51:36 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Not that it will make that much of a difference, but I don't think we will get the AA turn-out we had. The split will be a little better for the GOP too, but not enough to make any difference in the EC (as you note).

I really am having a hard time understanding where the GOP is going. To me it is looking bleak. Even if they hold out, win this election, we have a census coming 2020, the gerrymander districts will not hold. Relying on white/Christian/men is not a long term strategy.
thett3
Posts: 14,345
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
8/28/2015 2:57:42 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/28/2015 2:51:36 AM, TBR wrote:
Not that it will make that much of a difference, but I don't think we will get the AA turn-out we had. The split will be a little better for the GOP too, but not enough to make any difference in the EC (as you note).

I really am having a hard time understanding where the GOP is going. To me it is looking bleak. Even if they hold out, win this election, we have a census coming 2020, the gerrymander districts will not hold. Relying on white/Christian/men is not a long term strategy.

Well it's certainly bleak for the country--I don't think the GOP has hit the bottom of the well for white voters. But the last thing this country needs is even MORE racial polarization.

I also read an interesting article the other day about how southern rural whites vote like 90% GOP...that's as monolithic as the AA vote. Don't know where I was going with that, just thought it was interesting
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
thett3
Posts: 14,345
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
8/28/2015 3:11:50 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/28/2015 3:09:35 AM, Sarra wrote:
What does AA and EC mean?

African American and Electoral College
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
Contra
Posts: 3,941
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
8/28/2015 3:16:04 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/28/2015 2:57:43 AM, TBR wrote:
I should say white/Christian/50+/men. That is the only solid demographic the GOP has.

College educated individuals and higher income people also tend to vote Republican, but this is not always the case (see 2008).
"The solution [for Republicans] is to admit that Bush was a bad president, stop this racist homophobic stuff, stop trying to give most of the tax cuts to the rich, propose a real alternative to Obamacare that actually works, and propose smart free market solutions to our economic problems." - Distraff

"Americans are better off in a dynamic, free-enterprise-based economy that fosters economic growth, opportunity and upward mobility." - Paul Ryan
TBR
Posts: 9,991
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
8/28/2015 3:20:49 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/28/2015 3:16:04 AM, Contra wrote:
At 8/28/2015 2:57:43 AM, TBR wrote:
I should say white/Christian/50+/men. That is the only solid demographic the GOP has.

College educated individuals and higher income people also tend to vote Republican, but this is not always the case (see 2008).

As you note, this has NOT been the trend recently, not nationally.
thett3
Posts: 14,345
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
8/28/2015 3:21:28 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/28/2015 3:16:04 AM, Contra wrote:
At 8/28/2015 2:57:43 AM, TBR wrote:
I should say white/Christian/50+/men. That is the only solid demographic the GOP has.

College educated individuals and higher income people also tend to vote Republican, but this is not always the case (see 2008).

I think 2008 represents the floor for Republican votes. It may have eroded a percentage point or two as demographics change but not very much--this is the election where probably every true swing voter voted Democratic. One of the greatest candidates in modern political history running against one of the worst. One of the best campaigns in recent history against almost certainly the worst. The best environment for Democrats in years and the worst for Republicans...and McCain still got almost 46% of the vote.

I think people tend to underestimate just how polarized the country really is. For almost everyone the question is not "how will they vote?" It's "will they vote?"
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
jimtimmy8
Posts: 383
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
8/28/2015 5:48:02 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Cool. Looks like the left and media's concern about Hispanics blowing the GOP into irrelevancy are a bit overblown.
lannan13
Posts: 23,063
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
8/28/2015 8:38:41 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/28/2015 2:40:52 AM, TBR wrote:
Thanks for the link.

That the GOP is "giving up" on Hispanics seems about right. At this point, I don't see how they reverse the problem they have at this point.

I don't know, I real the hispanics love Trump.
-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-Lannan13'S SIGNATURE-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-

If the sky's the limit then why do we have footprints on the Moon? I'm shooting my aspirations for the stars.

"If you are going through hell, keep going." "Sir Winston Churchill

"No one can make you feel inferior without your consent." "Eleanor Roosevelt

Topics I want to debate. (http://tinyurl.com...)
-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~
TBR
Posts: 9,991
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
8/28/2015 9:16:29 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/28/2015 8:38:41 PM, lannan13 wrote:
At 8/28/2015 2:40:52 AM, TBR wrote:
Thanks for the link.

That the GOP is "giving up" on Hispanics seems about right. At this point, I don't see how they reverse the problem they have at this point.

I don't know, I real the hispanics love Trump.

Was that Hispanics love Trump?
TBR
Posts: 9,991
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
8/28/2015 10:47:12 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/28/2015 8:38:41 PM, lannan13 wrote:
At 8/28/2015 2:40:52 AM, TBR wrote:
Thanks for the link.

That the GOP is "giving up" on Hispanics seems about right. At this point, I don't see how they reverse the problem they have at this point.

I don't know, I real the hispanics love Trump.

In a recent Washington Post/ABC News poll, just 13% of Hispanics had a positive opinion of the real-estate mogul, while 81% had a negative view. Compare that with the overall number where 33% of all those surveyed had a favorable view of Trump, while 61% did not.
lannan13
Posts: 23,063
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
8/28/2015 10:49:04 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/28/2015 10:47:12 PM, TBR wrote:
At 8/28/2015 8:38:41 PM, lannan13 wrote:
At 8/28/2015 2:40:52 AM, TBR wrote:
Thanks for the link.

That the GOP is "giving up" on Hispanics seems about right. At this point, I don't see how they reverse the problem they have at this point.

I don't know, I real the hispanics love Trump.

In a recent Washington Post/ABC News poll, just 13% of Hispanics had a positive opinion of the real-estate mogul, while 81% had a negative view. Compare that with the overall number where 33% of all those surveyed had a favorable view of Trump, while 61% did not.

That was a joke. -_-
-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-Lannan13'S SIGNATURE-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-

If the sky's the limit then why do we have footprints on the Moon? I'm shooting my aspirations for the stars.

"If you are going through hell, keep going." "Sir Winston Churchill

"No one can make you feel inferior without your consent." "Eleanor Roosevelt

Topics I want to debate. (http://tinyurl.com...)
-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~
lannan13
Posts: 23,063
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
8/28/2015 10:54:23 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/28/2015 10:52:21 PM, TBR wrote:
Got it. Hard to know with the Trump delusions going around.

I'm not a Trump fan, but he's gonna run out of steam just like Hermin Cain.
-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-Lannan13'S SIGNATURE-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-

If the sky's the limit then why do we have footprints on the Moon? I'm shooting my aspirations for the stars.

"If you are going through hell, keep going." "Sir Winston Churchill

"No one can make you feel inferior without your consent." "Eleanor Roosevelt

Topics I want to debate. (http://tinyurl.com...)
-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~
TBR
Posts: 9,991
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
8/28/2015 11:09:53 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/28/2015 10:54:23 PM, lannan13 wrote:
At 8/28/2015 10:52:21 PM, TBR wrote:
Got it. Hard to know with the Trump delusions going around.

I'm not a Trump fan, but he's gonna run out of steam just like Hermin Cain.

Reality has to kick in at some point. There is NO path to the WH with Trump.