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What swing states could Trump win?

TBR
Posts: 9,991
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8/28/2015 11:30:52 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
New poll has Biden (not even a candidate) beating Trump in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

I keep asking. What plan do Trump supporters have to actually win? Its a complete pipe dream.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu...
YYW
Posts: 36,242
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8/28/2015 11:41:09 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/28/2015 11:30:52 PM, TBR wrote:
New poll has Biden (not even a candidate) beating Trump in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

I keep asking. What plan do Trump supporters have to actually win? Its a complete pipe dream.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu...

Trump will win all swing states where there is a substantial percentage of evangelicals, and tea-bagger leaning independents.
Varrack
Posts: 2,410
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8/28/2015 11:43:50 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/28/2015 11:30:52 PM, TBR wrote:
New poll has Biden (not even a candidate) beating Trump in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

I keep asking. What plan do Trump supporters have to actually win? Its a complete pipe dream.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu...

That's a very lengthy study. I don't think Trump could win, but making projections 15 months in advance is a little too early for anything. If he gets nominated, I'm leaving the GOP.
TBR
Posts: 9,991
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8/29/2015 12:05:54 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Still, all skirting the question. What is the Trump plan? I see NO path in the general. This is a clear question of electability.

Trump supporters - what IS it? How do you see him winning?
16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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8/29/2015 1:58:41 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/28/2015 11:43:50 PM, Varrack wrote:
At 8/28/2015 11:30:52 PM, TBR wrote:
New poll has Biden (not even a candidate) beating Trump in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

I keep asking. What plan do Trump supporters have to actually win? Its a complete pipe dream.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu...

That's a very lengthy study. I don't think Trump could win, but making projections 15 months in advance is a little too early for anything. If he gets nominated, I'm leaving the GOP.

Ima still register as a Republican, but I will probably vote third party.
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"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
Huntress
Posts: 60
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8/29/2015 12:53:23 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/28/2015 11:30:52 PM, TBR wrote:
New poll has Biden (not even a candidate) beating Trump in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

I keep asking. What plan do Trump supporters have to actually win? Its a complete pipe dream.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu...

I wish he'd run. He'd be preferable to Clinton.

I don't think Trump is even thinking about the general election right now. He's said as much. It's about becoming the Republican nominee. He's never going to be able to win over the socialists, but I think his very workable economic policies will have broad appeal. And I think he'll know what to focus on when the time comes.
TBR
Posts: 9,991
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8/29/2015 1:41:54 PM
Posted: 1 year ago

I wish he'd run. He'd be preferable to Clinton.

I don't think Trump is even thinking about the general election right now. He's said as much. It's about becoming the Republican nominee. He's never going to be able to win over the socialists, but I think his very workable economic policies will have broad appeal. And I think he'll know what to focus on when the time comes.

Right. So no plan for the general.

GOP just keep going this way - short sighted as always. Sure loss.
58539672
Posts: 105
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8/30/2015 12:15:55 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/29/2015 1:41:54 PM, TBR wrote:

I wish he'd run. He'd be preferable to Clinton.

I don't think Trump is even thinking about the general election right now. He's said as much. It's about becoming the Republican nominee. He's never going to be able to win over the socialists, but I think his very workable economic policies will have broad appeal. And I think he'll know what to focus on when the time comes.

Right. So no plan for the general.

GOP just keep going this way - short sighted as always. Sure loss.

You seem to think that Trump is somehow going to get the nomination, and thus are already criticizing the GOP for its stupidity. He isn't going to get the nomination. Period. He has already turned off to many party members for that to ever happen.
TBR
Posts: 9,991
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8/30/2015 12:19:32 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Right. So no plan for the general.

GOP just keep going this way - short sighted as always. Sure loss.

You seem to think that Trump is somehow going to get the nomination, and thus are already criticizing the GOP for its stupidity. He isn't going to get the nomination. Period. He has already turned off to many party members for that to ever happen.

1) I don't think he is going to get the nomination. My bets are still open. I will take your money (or eat bugs) on any Trump bet.

2) The Trump supporters are being very myopic. I am asking them what the plan is for a Trump run past the nomination.

3) I agree, he has turned off everyone but a rabid base. Even within the party, his negatives are too high for a win.
Huntress
Posts: 60
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8/30/2015 1:39:59 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/30/2015 12:19:32 AM, TBR wrote:
Right. So no plan for the general.

GOP just keep going this way - short sighted as always. Sure loss.

You seem to think that Trump is somehow going to get the nomination, and thus are already criticizing the GOP for its stupidity. He isn't going to get the nomination. Period. He has already turned off to many party members for that to ever happen.

1) I don't think he is going to get the nomination. My bets are still open. I will take your money (or eat bugs) on any Trump bet.

2) The Trump supporters are being very myopic. I am asking them what the plan is for a Trump run past the nomination.

We're not his campaign advisers. Trump said he's focusing on the primary at the moment. We don't know for certain who the Democratic nominee is going to be either. I would imagine Hillary would be easier prey than Sanders, but she would be able to carry more moderates. Your strategy depends on your adversary and their strengths and weaknesses.


3) I agree, he has turned off everyone but a rabid base. Even within the party, his negatives are too high for a win.

Many former Democrats are voting from Trump, because they believe in putting their country first, not a socialist agenda or special interests. His numbers increase in the polls weekly, even beating other candidates in their home states, so whatever outdated, likely MSNBC, poll you're looking at isn't telling the current facts.

A recent CNN poll shows him only 6 points behind Hillary if there was a general election today, and that's quite an increase from last month, so I would hardly think those few points he needs are unattainable.

http://www.people.com...

He's a man of the people, not of a rabid base. I'm not rabid, thank you.
Oreo222
Posts: 180
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8/31/2015 12:45:33 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/28/2015 11:30:52 PM, TBR wrote:
New poll has Biden (not even a candidate) beating Trump in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

I keep asking. What plan do Trump supporters have to actually win? Its a complete pipe dream.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu...

He better not win any state whatsoever.
TBR
Posts: 9,991
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9/1/2015 3:22:01 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
3) I agree, he has turned off everyone but a rabid base. Even within the party, his negatives are too high for a win.

Many former Democrats are voting from Trump, because they believe in putting their country first, not a socialist agenda or special interests. His numbers increase in the polls weekly, even beating other candidates in their home states, so whatever outdated, likely MSNBC, poll you're looking at isn't telling the current facts.

Everything about that is wrong.
http://onpolitics.usatoday.com...

In the party is has the most support and the least support. The guy is a train-wreck for the GOP.

And, if you are supporting him, yes you are living a delusion.

Want to take my bug eating bet? I say he will not get the nomination, or I will eat a bug live on a google hangout. You up for it?
Huntress
Posts: 60
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9/1/2015 1:58:56 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/1/2015 3:22:01 AM, TBR wrote:
3) I agree, he has turned off everyone but a rabid base. Even within the party, his negatives are too high for a win.

Many former Democrats are voting from Trump, because they believe in putting their country first, not a socialist agenda or special interests. His numbers increase in the polls weekly, even beating other candidates in their home states, so whatever outdated, likely MSNBC, poll you're looking at isn't telling the current facts.

Everything about that is wrong.
http://onpolitics.usatoday.com...

In the party is has the most support and the least support. The guy is a train-wreck for the GOP.

And, if you are supporting him, yes you are living a delusion.

Want to take my bug eating bet? I say he will not get the nomination, or I will eat a bug live on a google hangout. You up for it?

As I previously suggested, you're looking at old polls. I'll share a poll, it's focused on Iowa, but it gives a good picture of the transition in support of Trump. From a poll less than a week old:

http://thehill.com...

The new Bloomberg/Des Moines Register sampling released on Saturday has the outspoken billionaire scoring a 61 percent favorability rating.
He earns a 35 unfavorability rating, the survey added, a nearly complete reversal since the last Bloomberg/Des Moines Register sampling in May.
"He now has seven people with higher unfavorable [ratings] than he has, and that includes Jeb Bush," Selzer said Saturday, referencing the former GOP governor of Florida.
"He has grown his favorability and its turned into votes," she added of Trump"s fortunes in Iowa.

I'm focusing my optimism on a Trump victory, so I'm not backing down. I'd rather not see my country become like Greece. I think you'll be eating that bug.
TBR
Posts: 9,991
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9/1/2015 3:15:43 PM
Posted: 1 year ago

As I previously suggested, you're looking at old polls. I'll share a poll, it's focused on Iowa, but it gives a good picture of the transition in support of Trump. From a poll less than a week old:

http://thehill.com...

The new Bloomberg/Des Moines Register sampling released on Saturday has the outspoken billionaire scoring a 61 percent favorability rating.
He earns a 35 unfavorability rating, the survey added, a nearly complete reversal since the last Bloomberg/Des Moines Register sampling in May.
"He now has seven people with higher unfavorable [ratings] than he has, and that includes Jeb Bush," Selzer said Saturday, referencing the former GOP governor of Florida.
"He has grown his favorability and its turned into votes," she added of Trump"s fortunes in Iowa.
That is IOWA only. Regardless, I concede that the unfavorable numbers have been getting better for him generally. The kicker is, the demographics are still unmoved. That is, his support is getting BETTER in the white christian republican base (and it only gets more vertical) but almost unchanged everywhere else.


I'm focusing my optimism on a Trump victory, so I'm not backing down. I'd rather not see my country become like Greece. I think you'll be eating that bug.
The bet is open. I have put-up bug eating. What are you willing to bet?
anonymouse
Posts: 52
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9/1/2015 10:22:20 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/28/2015 11:30:52 PM, TBR wrote:
New poll has Biden (not even a candidate) beating Trump in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

I keep asking. What plan do Trump supporters have to actually win? Its a complete pipe dream.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu...

Trump could win Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Missouri

infact he will probably win against whoever the dems put up. Elections normally go in a cycle of Dem and Rep.
Huntress
Posts: 60
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9/1/2015 10:47:40 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/1/2015 3:15:43 PM, TBR wrote:

As I previously suggested, you're looking at old polls. I'll share a poll, it's focused on Iowa, but it gives a good picture of the transition in support of Trump. From a poll less than a week old:

http://thehill.com...

The new Bloomberg/Des Moines Register sampling released on Saturday has the outspoken billionaire scoring a 61 percent favorability rating.
He earns a 35 unfavorability rating, the survey added, a nearly complete reversal since the last Bloomberg/Des Moines Register sampling in May.
"He now has seven people with higher unfavorable [ratings] than he has, and that includes Jeb Bush," Selzer said Saturday, referencing the former GOP governor of Florida.
"He has grown his favorability and its turned into votes," she added of Trump"s fortunes in Iowa.
That is IOWA only. Regardless, I concede that the unfavorable numbers have been getting better for him generally. The kicker is, the demographics are still unmoved. That is, his support is getting BETTER in the white christian republican base (and it only gets more vertical) but almost unchanged everywhere else.


I'm focusing my optimism on a Trump victory, so I'm not backing down. I'd rather not see my country become like Greece. I think you'll be eating that bug.
The bet is open. I have put-up bug eating. What are you willing to bet?

I did read a poll today that Carson is tied with Trump in Iowa now, so maybe I shouldn't count my chickens before they are hatched.
ford_prefect
Posts: 4,137
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9/2/2015 2:23:02 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Trick question: None, because you can't win swing states if you don't win your party's nomination. Which Trump will not do.
TBR
Posts: 9,991
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9/2/2015 3:15:37 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/2/2015 2:23:02 AM, ford_prefect wrote:
Trick question: None, because you can't win swing states if you don't win your party's nomination. Which Trump will not do.

Well, the sane folk know that. I am asking the Trumpians how they possibly think he could win a general.

Have I mentioned I love your name?
ford_prefect
Posts: 4,137
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9/2/2015 4:06:05 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/2/2015 3:15:37 AM, TBR wrote:
At 9/2/2015 2:23:02 AM, ford_prefect wrote:
Trick question: None, because you can't win swing states if you don't win your party's nomination. Which Trump will not do.

Well, the sane folk know that. I am asking the Trumpians how they possibly think he could win a general.
Yep, they're delusional. Don't tell them that though :)
Have I mentioned I love your name?
Thanks, you're a Douglas Adams fan, I take it?
treeless
Posts: 64
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9/3/2015 10:45:28 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/28/2015 11:43:50 PM, Varrack wrote:
At 8/28/2015 11:30:52 PM, TBR wrote:
New poll has Biden (not even a candidate) beating Trump in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

I keep asking. What plan do Trump supporters have to actually win? Its a complete pipe dream.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu...

That's a very lengthy study. I don't think Trump could win, but making projections 15 months in advance is a little too early for anything. If he gets nominated, I'm leaving the GOP.

I would leave the country.
Red_Dirt
Posts: 54
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9/4/2015 2:33:21 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/3/2015 10:45:28 AM, treeless wrote:
At 8/28/2015 11:43:50 PM, Varrack wrote:
At 8/28/2015 11:30:52 PM, TBR wrote:
New poll has Biden (not even a candidate) beating Trump in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

I keep asking. What plan do Trump supporters have to actually win? Its a complete pipe dream.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu...

That's a very lengthy study. I don't think Trump could win, but making projections 15 months in advance is a little too early for anything. If he gets nominated, I'm leaving the GOP.

I would leave the country.

------------------------------
I think the two states Trump would have the most trouble converting from the liberal habit would be CA and WA. These are two states that profit the most from Chinese importing -- ports at Long Beach and Seattle.
Sooner or later, Trump will raise the issue of exporting jobs to cheap countries. Watch carefully to see the reaction to that.
Oh, yeah, I almost forgot about Arkansas, home of Wal Mart, and MN, home of Target.
-------------------------------
imabench
Posts: 21,206
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9/4/2015 2:43:14 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/28/2015 11:30:52 PM, TBR wrote:
New poll has Biden (not even a candidate) beating Trump in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

I keep asking. What plan do Trump supporters have to actually win? Its a complete pipe dream.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu...

I dont think there is an actual plan for the how the general election would pan out. There's so many candidates in the field that seeing past the primaries is almost impossible since no one knows what will happen once the lesser candidates start dropping out....

Trump has 25% of the vote right now, and as impressive as that is, that still means that 3 out of 4 republican voters prefer someone else other than trump.... Once lesser candidates like Christie, Cruz, Rand Paul, Carson, and Fiorina drop out, who their voting bases will shift their alliance and support towards could drastically swing the likelihood of nomination to someone else.
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Huntress
Posts: 60
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9/5/2015 1:25:58 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/3/2015 10:45:28 AM, treeless wrote:
At 8/28/2015 11:43:50 PM, Varrack wrote:
At 8/28/2015 11:30:52 PM, TBR wrote:
New poll has Biden (not even a candidate) beating Trump in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

I keep asking. What plan do Trump supporters have to actually win? Its a complete pipe dream.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu...

That's a very lengthy study. I don't think Trump could win, but making projections 15 months in advance is a little too early for anything. If he gets nominated, I'm leaving the GOP.

I would leave the country.

Please do and take all your socialist friends with you.
treeless
Posts: 64
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9/7/2015 11:40:51 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/5/2015 1:25:58 PM, Huntress wrote:
At 9/3/2015 10:45:28 AM, treeless wrote:
At 8/28/2015 11:43:50 PM, Varrack wrote:
At 8/28/2015 11:30:52 PM, TBR wrote:
New poll has Biden (not even a candidate) beating Trump in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

I keep asking. What plan do Trump supporters have to actually win? Its a complete pipe dream.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu...

That's a very lengthy study. I don't think Trump could win, but making projections 15 months in advance is a little too early for anything. If he gets nominated, I'm leaving the GOP.

I would leave the country.

Please do and take all your socialist friends with you.

Your assumption that I am a socialist automatically really shows your level of bias and ,to a degree, ignorance. If you truly think Trump is a viable candidate to represent any political party, not to mention the whole country, then I have nothing further to say to you.
sansvoix
Posts: 4
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9/8/2015 11:54:34 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Trump will win all swing states where there is a substantial percentage of evangelicals, and tea-bagger leaning independents.

Those aren't swing states - they're red states.