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Trump's Long Term View

bsh1
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9/16/2015 8:33:16 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
I saw a piece today [http://www.nationalreview.com...] which suggested--interestingly--that while Trump has "deep" support, it may not be "broad." This is meant in the sense that while he has a lot of supporters, there is a very distinct upward ceiling to his popularity, and that when other candidates start dropping out of the race, their supporters will defect to candidates other than Trump, because they dislike him so much. So, Trump's inability to capture these freed up voters will doom him later on.

Any thoughts regarding this hypothesis? The article is very interesting, too, and a good read.
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ColeTrain
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9/16/2015 9:41:32 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/16/2015 8:33:16 PM, bsh1 wrote:
I saw a piece today [http://www.nationalreview.com...] which suggested--interestingly--that while Trump has "deep" support, it may not be "broad." This is meant in the sense that while he has a lot of supporters, there is a very distinct upward ceiling to his popularity, and that when other candidates start dropping out of the race, their supporters will defect to candidates other than Trump, because they dislike him so much. So, Trump's inability to capture these freed up voters will doom him later on.

Any thoughts regarding this hypothesis? The article is very interesting, too, and a good read.

I agree! I've actually considered this very thing prior to seeing this thread or reading the article. Right now, it's all publicity (which is Trump's strong area). To say the least, by the time the nominee comes around, Trump will ultimately be trumped.
"The right to 360 noscope noobs shall not be infringed!!!" -- tajshar2k
"So, to start off, I've never committed suicide." -- Vaarka
"I eat glue." -- brontoraptor
"I mean, at this rate, I'd argue for a ham sandwich presidency." -- ResponsiblyIrresponsible
"Overthrow Assad, heil jihad." -- 16kadams when trolling in hangout
"Hillary Clinton is not my favorite person ... and her campaign is as inspiring as a bowl of cottage cheese." -- YYW
bsh1
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9/16/2015 9:58:01 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/16/2015 9:41:32 PM, ColeTrain wrote:
At 9/16/2015 8:33:16 PM, bsh1 wrote:
I saw a piece today [http://www.nationalreview.com...] which suggested--interestingly--that while Trump has "deep" support, it may not be "broad." This is meant in the sense that while he has a lot of supporters, there is a very distinct upward ceiling to his popularity, and that when other candidates start dropping out of the race, their supporters will defect to candidates other than Trump, because they dislike him so much. So, Trump's inability to capture these freed up voters will doom him later on.

Any thoughts regarding this hypothesis? The article is very interesting, too, and a good read.

I agree! I've actually considered this very thing prior to seeing this thread or reading the article. Right now, it's all publicity (which is Trump's strong area). To say the least, by the time the nominee comes around, Trump will ultimately be trumped.

Yeah...But part of me wants him to get nominated...He'd be a godsend to the democrats.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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ColeTrain
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9/16/2015 9:59:16 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/16/2015 9:58:01 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 9/16/2015 9:41:32 PM, ColeTrain wrote:
At 9/16/2015 8:33:16 PM, bsh1 wrote:
I saw a piece today [http://www.nationalreview.com...] which suggested--interestingly--that while Trump has "deep" support, it may not be "broad." This is meant in the sense that while he has a lot of supporters, there is a very distinct upward ceiling to his popularity, and that when other candidates start dropping out of the race, their supporters will defect to candidates other than Trump, because they dislike him so much. So, Trump's inability to capture these freed up voters will doom him later on.

Any thoughts regarding this hypothesis? The article is very interesting, too, and a good read.

I agree! I've actually considered this very thing prior to seeing this thread or reading the article. Right now, it's all publicity (which is Trump's strong area). To say the least, by the time the nominee comes around, Trump will ultimately be trumped.

Yeah...But part of me wants him to get nominated...He'd be a godsend to the democrats.

Lol. That's why I hope Hillary gets nominated. With all her scandals, it's a much higher possibility that a conservative republican will get elected.
"The right to 360 noscope noobs shall not be infringed!!!" -- tajshar2k
"So, to start off, I've never committed suicide." -- Vaarka
"I eat glue." -- brontoraptor
"I mean, at this rate, I'd argue for a ham sandwich presidency." -- ResponsiblyIrresponsible
"Overthrow Assad, heil jihad." -- 16kadams when trolling in hangout
"Hillary Clinton is not my favorite person ... and her campaign is as inspiring as a bowl of cottage cheese." -- YYW
bsh1
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9/16/2015 10:07:16 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/16/2015 9:59:16 PM, ColeTrain wrote:
At 9/16/2015 9:58:01 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 9/16/2015 9:41:32 PM, ColeTrain wrote:
At 9/16/2015 8:33:16 PM, bsh1 wrote:
I saw a piece today [http://www.nationalreview.com...] which suggested--interestingly--that while Trump has "deep" support, it may not be "broad." This is meant in the sense that while he has a lot of supporters, there is a very distinct upward ceiling to his popularity, and that when other candidates start dropping out of the race, their supporters will defect to candidates other than Trump, because they dislike him so much. So, Trump's inability to capture these freed up voters will doom him later on.

Any thoughts regarding this hypothesis? The article is very interesting, too, and a good read.

I agree! I've actually considered this very thing prior to seeing this thread or reading the article. Right now, it's all publicity (which is Trump's strong area). To say the least, by the time the nominee comes around, Trump will ultimately be trumped.

Yeah...But part of me wants him to get nominated...He'd be a godsend to the democrats.

Lol. That's why I hope Hillary gets nominated. With all her scandals, it's a much higher possibility that a conservative republican will get elected.

She's actually pretty strong and very electable. She beats every conservative in the field in the most recent polling, and she'd do a better job than any of them, IMO.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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ColeTrain
Posts: 4,325
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9/16/2015 10:22:36 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/16/2015 10:07:16 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 9/16/2015 9:59:16 PM, ColeTrain wrote:
At 9/16/2015 9:58:01 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 9/16/2015 9:41:32 PM, ColeTrain wrote:
At 9/16/2015 8:33:16 PM, bsh1 wrote:
I saw a piece today [http://www.nationalreview.com...] which suggested--interestingly--that while Trump has "deep" support, it may not be "broad." This is meant in the sense that while he has a lot of supporters, there is a very distinct upward ceiling to his popularity, and that when other candidates start dropping out of the race, their supporters will defect to candidates other than Trump, because they dislike him so much. So, Trump's inability to capture these freed up voters will doom him later on.

Any thoughts regarding this hypothesis? The article is very interesting, too, and a good read.

I agree! I've actually considered this very thing prior to seeing this thread or reading the article. Right now, it's all publicity (which is Trump's strong area). To say the least, by the time the nominee comes around, Trump will ultimately be trumped.

Yeah...But part of me wants him to get nominated...He'd be a godsend to the democrats.

Lol. That's why I hope Hillary gets nominated. With all her scandals, it's a much higher possibility that a conservative republican will get elected.

She's actually pretty strong and very electable. She beats every conservative in the field in the most recent polling, and she'd do a better job than any of them, IMO.

Perhaps. I feel like Sanders has an unsettling good chance as well. Admits to being socialist and the democracy of the US accepts it. :/
"The right to 360 noscope noobs shall not be infringed!!!" -- tajshar2k
"So, to start off, I've never committed suicide." -- Vaarka
"I eat glue." -- brontoraptor
"I mean, at this rate, I'd argue for a ham sandwich presidency." -- ResponsiblyIrresponsible
"Overthrow Assad, heil jihad." -- 16kadams when trolling in hangout
"Hillary Clinton is not my favorite person ... and her campaign is as inspiring as a bowl of cottage cheese." -- YYW
thett3
Posts: 14,378
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9/16/2015 10:24:42 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
I think you underestimate the appeal of #TeflonDon. When the #TrumpTriump happens, you'll be forced to admit that you #Can'tStumpTheTrump
DDO Vice President

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: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
bsh1
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9/16/2015 10:24:50 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/16/2015 10:22:36 PM, ColeTrain wrote:
At 9/16/2015 10:07:16 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 9/16/2015 9:59:16 PM, ColeTrain wrote:
At 9/16/2015 9:58:01 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 9/16/2015 9:41:32 PM, ColeTrain wrote:
At 9/16/2015 8:33:16 PM, bsh1 wrote:
I saw a piece today [http://www.nationalreview.com...] which suggested--interestingly--that while Trump has "deep" support, it may not be "broad." This is meant in the sense that while he has a lot of supporters, there is a very distinct upward ceiling to his popularity, and that when other candidates start dropping out of the race, their supporters will defect to candidates other than Trump, because they dislike him so much. So, Trump's inability to capture these freed up voters will doom him later on.

Any thoughts regarding this hypothesis? The article is very interesting, too, and a good read.

I agree! I've actually considered this very thing prior to seeing this thread or reading the article. Right now, it's all publicity (which is Trump's strong area). To say the least, by the time the nominee comes around, Trump will ultimately be trumped.

Yeah...But part of me wants him to get nominated...He'd be a godsend to the democrats.

Lol. That's why I hope Hillary gets nominated. With all her scandals, it's a much higher possibility that a conservative republican will get elected.

She's actually pretty strong and very electable. She beats every conservative in the field in the most recent polling, and she'd do a better job than any of them, IMO.

Perhaps. I feel like Sanders has an unsettling good chance as well. Admits to being socialist and the democracy of the US accepts it. :/

Why is tempered socialism so bad? Most of the programs that we benefit from most are socialist in nature. Americans just don't understand what socialism is; they have this idea of a bogey man implanted in their heads from cold war-era propaganda. Socialism works for Europe: they are a lot better off than we are in most respects.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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ColeTrain
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9/16/2015 10:27:09 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Why is tempered socialism so bad? Most of the programs that we benefit from most are socialist in nature. Americans just don't understand what socialism is; they have this idea of a bogey man implanted in their heads from cold war-era propaganda. Socialism works for Europe: they are a lot better off than we are in most respects.

Admittedly, I'm not well-versed in socialism either. I've just seen his platform and grimace. I don't feel like many of his programs would be effective.
"The right to 360 noscope noobs shall not be infringed!!!" -- tajshar2k
"So, to start off, I've never committed suicide." -- Vaarka
"I eat glue." -- brontoraptor
"I mean, at this rate, I'd argue for a ham sandwich presidency." -- ResponsiblyIrresponsible
"Overthrow Assad, heil jihad." -- 16kadams when trolling in hangout
"Hillary Clinton is not my favorite person ... and her campaign is as inspiring as a bowl of cottage cheese." -- YYW
bsh1
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9/16/2015 10:30:47 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/16/2015 10:27:09 PM, ColeTrain wrote:
Why is tempered socialism so bad? Most of the programs that we benefit from most are socialist in nature. Americans just don't understand what socialism is; they have this idea of a bogey man implanted in their heads from cold war-era propaganda. Socialism works for Europe: they are a lot better off than we are in most respects.

Admittedly, I'm not well-versed in socialism either. I've just seen his platform and grimace. I don't feel like many of his programs would be effective.

Could you give me an example?

Yeah, most Americans get the impression from a young age that socialism is bad. Our culture just accepts it but few ever challenge it. In Europe, they have socialist parties which practice tempered socialism. The current French President is a socialist, for instance. Clearly, socialism is why Europe is a failure! Europe has better education, better healthcare, better quality of life, better incomes, more social equality, better infrastructure, etc. But, it's obviously still a failure.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

Follow the DDOlympics
: http://www.debate.org...

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ColeTrain
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9/16/2015 10:32:08 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/16/2015 10:30:47 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 9/16/2015 10:27:09 PM, ColeTrain wrote:
Why is tempered socialism so bad? Most of the programs that we benefit from most are socialist in nature. Americans just don't understand what socialism is; they have this idea of a bogey man implanted in their heads from cold war-era propaganda. Socialism works for Europe: they are a lot better off than we are in most respects.

Admittedly, I'm not well-versed in socialism either. I've just seen his platform and grimace. I don't feel like many of his programs would be effective.

Could you give me an example?

$15 mw.
"The right to 360 noscope noobs shall not be infringed!!!" -- tajshar2k
"So, to start off, I've never committed suicide." -- Vaarka
"I eat glue." -- brontoraptor
"I mean, at this rate, I'd argue for a ham sandwich presidency." -- ResponsiblyIrresponsible
"Overthrow Assad, heil jihad." -- 16kadams when trolling in hangout
"Hillary Clinton is not my favorite person ... and her campaign is as inspiring as a bowl of cottage cheese." -- YYW
ColeTrain
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9/16/2015 10:34:06 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Yeah, most Americans get the impression from a young age that socialism is bad. Our culture just accepts it but few ever challenge it. In Europe, they have socialist parties which practice tempered socialism. The current French President is a socialist, for instance. Clearly, socialism is why Europe is a failure! Europe has better education, better healthcare, better quality of life, better incomes, more social equality, better infrastructure, etc. But, it's obviously still a failure.

I feel that the biggest concern is, on a political level, economic freedom, and on an individual level, freedom in general. Tempered socialism wouldn't be *as* bad, but it's a slippery slope.
"The right to 360 noscope noobs shall not be infringed!!!" -- tajshar2k
"So, to start off, I've never committed suicide." -- Vaarka
"I eat glue." -- brontoraptor
"I mean, at this rate, I'd argue for a ham sandwich presidency." -- ResponsiblyIrresponsible
"Overthrow Assad, heil jihad." -- 16kadams when trolling in hangout
"Hillary Clinton is not my favorite person ... and her campaign is as inspiring as a bowl of cottage cheese." -- YYW
bsh1
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9/16/2015 10:37:53 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/16/2015 10:34:06 PM, ColeTrain wrote:
Yeah, most Americans get the impression from a young age that socialism is bad. Our culture just accepts it but few ever challenge it. In Europe, they have socialist parties which practice tempered socialism. The current French President is a socialist, for instance. Clearly, socialism is why Europe is a failure! Europe has better education, better healthcare, better quality of life, better incomes, more social equality, better infrastructure, etc. But, it's obviously still a failure.

I feel that the biggest concern is, on a political level, economic freedom, and on an individual level, freedom in general. Tempered socialism wouldn't be *as* bad, but it's a slippery slope.

It's not really a slippery slope. Again, look at Europe. They score better on the democracy and transparency indexes than we sometimes do in the U.S.

Economic freedom is vastly overrated. A large degree is needed for growth, but not nearly as much as we think. Germany's economy is a great example of how some economic control doesn't deter growth.

Freedom is not at risk with socialism. Socialism is an economic theory. I think you're conflating socialism with communism. They are 100% NOT the same. Communism is dangerous to freedom; socialism isn't.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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bsh1
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9/16/2015 10:39:17 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/16/2015 10:32:08 PM, ColeTrain wrote:
At 9/16/2015 10:30:47 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 9/16/2015 10:27:09 PM, ColeTrain wrote:
Why is tempered socialism so bad? Most of the programs that we benefit from most are socialist in nature. Americans just don't understand what socialism is; they have this idea of a bogey man implanted in their heads from cold war-era propaganda. Socialism works for Europe: they are a lot better off than we are in most respects.

Admittedly, I'm not well-versed in socialism either. I've just seen his platform and grimace. I don't feel like many of his programs would be effective.

Could you give me an example?

$15 mw.

Ah, the living wage. I don't think that would pass. Personally, I think $10.10 is a good number, but generally, our minimum wage is far, far too low.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

Follow the DDOlympics
: http://www.debate.org...

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YYW
Posts: 36,392
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9/17/2015 12:00:12 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/16/2015 8:33:16 PM, bsh1 wrote:
I saw a piece today [http://www.nationalreview.com...] which suggested--interestingly--that while Trump has "deep" support, it may not be "broad." This is meant in the sense that while he has a lot of supporters, there is a very distinct upward ceiling to his popularity, and that when other candidates start dropping out of the race, their supporters will defect to candidates other than Trump, because they dislike him so much. So, Trump's inability to capture these freed up voters will doom him later on.

Any thoughts regarding this hypothesis? The article is very interesting, too, and a good read.

I haven't read the article, but I agree with the analysis to the extent that the breadth of Trump's support is constrained to a majority of voters in the Republican primary. He will not win the general.
Tsar of DDO
Raisor
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9/17/2015 12:09:19 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
This has been the accepted wisdom of pundits for the past few months. People were putting his cap at 20-25% when he first started to peak now he is pushing 30%

More recently pundits seems scared to make any predictions about Trump as he seems to be defying the laws of political gravity.

I still think his appeal is limited. There is a chance that the longer he stays around the more his image becomes the new normal. I think he fades once people have to start getting serious later in the campaign season. These early polls are so dynamic, now Carson is within sniping distance of Trump.

Trump does have an edge in that he has a lot of money locked down to stay in the game, he doesnt have the donor problems that will burn away a lot of the other players (like Perry RIP).
wrichcirw
Posts: 11,196
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9/17/2015 6:26:08 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/17/2015 12:00:12 AM, YYW wrote:
At 9/16/2015 8:33:16 PM, bsh1 wrote:
I saw a piece today [http://www.nationalreview.com...] which suggested--interestingly--that while Trump has "deep" support, it may not be "broad." This is meant in the sense that while he has a lot of supporters, there is a very distinct upward ceiling to his popularity, and that when other candidates start dropping out of the race, their supporters will defect to candidates other than Trump, because they dislike him so much. So, Trump's inability to capture these freed up voters will doom him later on.

Any thoughts regarding this hypothesis? The article is very interesting, too, and a good read.

I haven't read the article, but I agree with the analysis to the extent that the breadth of Trump's support is constrained to a majority of voters in the Republican primary. He will not win the general.

lol, funny how you can go from making bets on Trump winning to making explicit statements to the opposite effect. I suppose you are simply being consistent in your inconsistency.
At 8/9/2013 9:41:24 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
If you are civil with me, I will be civil to you. If you decide to bring unreasonable animosity to bear in a reasonable discussion, then what would you expect other than to get flustered?
wrichcirw
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9/17/2015 6:36:58 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/17/2015 12:09:19 AM, Raisor wrote:
This has been the accepted wisdom of pundits for the past few months. People were putting his cap at 20-25% when he first started to peak now he is pushing 30%

More recently pundits seems scared to make any predictions about Trump as he seems to be defying the laws of political gravity.

I still think his appeal is limited. There is a chance that the longer he stays around the more his image becomes the new normal. I think he fades once people have to start getting serious later in the campaign season. These early polls are so dynamic, now Carson is within sniping distance of Trump.

Trump has made statements to the left of Clinton and even Sanders while his poll numbers continue to increase. IMHO his appeal is potentially more far-reaching than anyone suspects.

Trump does have an edge in that he has a lot of money locked down to stay in the game, he doesnt have the donor problems that will burn away a lot of the other players (like Perry RIP).
At 8/9/2013 9:41:24 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
If you are civil with me, I will be civil to you. If you decide to bring unreasonable animosity to bear in a reasonable discussion, then what would you expect other than to get flustered?
bsh1
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9/17/2015 9:15:09 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/17/2015 12:00:12 AM, YYW wrote:
At 9/16/2015 8:33:16 PM, bsh1 wrote:
I saw a piece today [http://www.nationalreview.com...] which suggested--interestingly--that while Trump has "deep" support, it may not be "broad." This is meant in the sense that while he has a lot of supporters, there is a very distinct upward ceiling to his popularity, and that when other candidates start dropping out of the race, their supporters will defect to candidates other than Trump, because they dislike him so much. So, Trump's inability to capture these freed up voters will doom him later on.

Any thoughts regarding this hypothesis? The article is very interesting, too, and a good read.

I haven't read the article, but I agree with the analysis to the extent that the breadth of Trump's support is constrained to a majority of voters in the Republican primary. He will not win the general.

The article cotends he won't win the primary cause of it either.
Live Long and Prosper

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"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

Follow the DDOlympics
: http://www.debate.org...

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YYW
Posts: 36,392
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9/17/2015 12:02:42 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/17/2015 9:15:09 AM, bsh1 wrote:
At 9/17/2015 12:00:12 AM, YYW wrote:
At 9/16/2015 8:33:16 PM, bsh1 wrote:
I saw a piece today [http://www.nationalreview.com...] which suggested--interestingly--that while Trump has "deep" support, it may not be "broad." This is meant in the sense that while he has a lot of supporters, there is a very distinct upward ceiling to his popularity, and that when other candidates start dropping out of the race, their supporters will defect to candidates other than Trump, because they dislike him so much. So, Trump's inability to capture these freed up voters will doom him later on.

Any thoughts regarding this hypothesis? The article is very interesting, too, and a good read.

I haven't read the article, but I agree with the analysis to the extent that the breadth of Trump's support is constrained to a majority of voters in the Republican primary. He will not win the general.

The article cotends he won't win the primary cause of it either.

Which is where it is wrong....
Tsar of DDO
YYW
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9/17/2015 12:04:03 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/17/2015 6:26:08 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 9/17/2015 12:00:12 AM, YYW wrote:
At 9/16/2015 8:33:16 PM, bsh1 wrote:
I saw a piece today [http://www.nationalreview.com...] which suggested--interestingly--that while Trump has "deep" support, it may not be "broad." This is meant in the sense that while he has a lot of supporters, there is a very distinct upward ceiling to his popularity, and that when other candidates start dropping out of the race, their supporters will defect to candidates other than Trump, because they dislike him so much. So, Trump's inability to capture these freed up voters will doom him later on.

Any thoughts regarding this hypothesis? The article is very interesting, too, and a good read.

I haven't read the article, but I agree with the analysis to the extent that the breadth of Trump's support is constrained to a majority of voters in the Republican primary. He will not win the general.

lol, funny how you can go from making bets on Trump winning to making explicit statements to the opposite effect. I suppose you are simply being consistent in your inconsistency.

It is amazing to me how profoundly deficient you are in the way of reading simple sentences. Every time you try to say something clever it's just embarrassing for you... lol.
Tsar of DDO
bsh1
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9/17/2015 1:38:47 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/17/2015 12:02:42 PM, YYW wrote:
At 9/17/2015 9:15:09 AM, bsh1 wrote:
At 9/17/2015 12:00:12 AM, YYW wrote:
At 9/16/2015 8:33:16 PM, bsh1 wrote:
I saw a piece today [http://www.nationalreview.com...] which suggested--interestingly--that while Trump has "deep" support, it may not be "broad." This is meant in the sense that while he has a lot of supporters, there is a very distinct upward ceiling to his popularity, and that when other candidates start dropping out of the race, their supporters will defect to candidates other than Trump, because they dislike him so much. So, Trump's inability to capture these freed up voters will doom him later on.

Any thoughts regarding this hypothesis? The article is very interesting, too, and a good read.

I haven't read the article, but I agree with the analysis to the extent that the breadth of Trump's support is constrained to a majority of voters in the Republican primary. He will not win the general.

The article cotends he won't win the primary cause of it either.

Which is where it is wrong....

How so?
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Raisor
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9/17/2015 2:41:48 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/17/2015 6:36:58 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 9/17/2015 12:09:19 AM, Raisor wrote:
This has been the accepted wisdom of pundits for the past few months. People were putting his cap at 20-25% when he first started to peak now he is pushing 30%

More recently pundits seems scared to make any predictions about Trump as he seems to be defying the laws of political gravity.

I still think his appeal is limited. There is a chance that the longer he stays around the more his image becomes the new normal. I think he fades once people have to start getting serious later in the campaign season. These early polls are so dynamic, now Carson is within sniping distance of Trump.

Trump has made statements to the left of Clinton and even Sanders while his poll numbers continue to increase. IMHO his appeal is potentially more far-reaching than anyone suspects.

Trump does have an edge in that he has a lot of money locked down to stay in the game, he doesnt have the donor problems that will burn away a lot of the other players (like Perry RIP).

hes a weird candidateasqueradg as a conservative. He is appealing to populism which often means embracing economically left of center views. I've heard people say the dems would be best served by a trump presidency compared to his competitors. Maybe this is true.

I don't think he will get much support from the left though, Despite his support of progressive taxes and infrastructure soending
bsh1
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9/17/2015 3:27:19 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/17/2015 6:36:58 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 9/17/2015 12:09:19 AM, Raisor wrote:
This has been the accepted wisdom of pundits for the past few months. People were putting his cap at 20-25% when he first started to peak now he is pushing 30%

More recently pundits seems scared to make any predictions about Trump as he seems to be defying the laws of political gravity.

I still think his appeal is limited. There is a chance that the longer he stays around the more his image becomes the new normal. I think he fades once people have to start getting serious later in the campaign season. These early polls are so dynamic, now Carson is within sniping distance of Trump.

Trump has made statements to the left of Clinton and even Sanders while his poll numbers continue to increase. IMHO his appeal is potentially more far-reaching than anyone suspects.

Trump's appeal is less what he says (i.e. his policy positions) and more who he is (i.e. an anti-establishment candidate).
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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Greyparrot
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9/17/2015 3:30:53 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/17/2015 3:27:19 PM, bsh1 wrote:

Trump's appeal is less what he says (i.e. his policy positions) and more who he is (i.e. an anti-establishment candidate).

I agree and I think it's hillarious that currently, the GOP wants to shake up the conservative establishment while the Dems are perfectly content with the government status quo.
wrichcirw
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9/17/2015 5:32:30 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/17/2015 12:04:03 PM, YYW wrote:
At 9/17/2015 6:26:08 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 9/17/2015 12:00:12 AM, YYW wrote:
At 9/16/2015 8:33:16 PM, bsh1 wrote:
I saw a piece today [http://www.nationalreview.com...] which suggested--interestingly--that while Trump has "deep" support, it may not be "broad." This is meant in the sense that while he has a lot of supporters, there is a very distinct upward ceiling to his popularity, and that when other candidates start dropping out of the race, their supporters will defect to candidates other than Trump, because they dislike him so much. So, Trump's inability to capture these freed up voters will doom him later on.

Any thoughts regarding this hypothesis? The article is very interesting, too, and a good read.

I haven't read the article, but I agree with the analysis to the extent that the breadth of Trump's support is constrained to a majority of voters in the Republican primary. He will not win the general.

lol, funny how you can go from making bets on Trump winning to making explicit statements to the opposite effect. I suppose you are simply being consistent in your inconsistency.

It is amazing to me how profoundly deficient you are in the way of reading simple sentences. Every time you try to say something clever it's just embarrassing for you... lol.

This wasn't an attempt at cleverness...this was simply holding you accountable to whatever deficiencies in reasoning are generally strewn in your argumentation.
At 8/9/2013 9:41:24 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
If you are civil with me, I will be civil to you. If you decide to bring unreasonable animosity to bear in a reasonable discussion, then what would you expect other than to get flustered?
wrichcirw
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9/17/2015 5:40:18 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/17/2015 3:27:19 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 9/17/2015 6:36:58 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 9/17/2015 12:09:19 AM, Raisor wrote:
This has been the accepted wisdom of pundits for the past few months. People were putting his cap at 20-25% when he first started to peak now he is pushing 30%

More recently pundits seems scared to make any predictions about Trump as he seems to be defying the laws of political gravity.

I still think his appeal is limited. There is a chance that the longer he stays around the more his image becomes the new normal. I think he fades once people have to start getting serious later in the campaign season. These early polls are so dynamic, now Carson is within sniping distance of Trump.

Trump has made statements to the left of Clinton and even Sanders while his poll numbers continue to increase. IMHO his appeal is potentially more far-reaching than anyone suspects.

Trump's appeal is less what he says (i.e. his policy positions) and more who he is (i.e. an anti-establishment candidate).

It's his policy positions that have painted him as an anti-establishment candidate. They're not (at all) detailed, but they do indeed paint broad strokes in regards to where Trump wants to take this country.
At 8/9/2013 9:41:24 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
If you are civil with me, I will be civil to you. If you decide to bring unreasonable animosity to bear in a reasonable discussion, then what would you expect other than to get flustered?
bsh1
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9/17/2015 5:47:09 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/17/2015 5:40:18 PM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 9/17/2015 3:27:19 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 9/17/2015 6:36:58 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 9/17/2015 12:09:19 AM, Raisor wrote:
This has been the accepted wisdom of pundits for the past few months. People were putting his cap at 20-25% when he first started to peak now he is pushing 30%

More recently pundits seems scared to make any predictions about Trump as he seems to be defying the laws of political gravity.

I still think his appeal is limited. There is a chance that the longer he stays around the more his image becomes the new normal. I think he fades once people have to start getting serious later in the campaign season. These early polls are so dynamic, now Carson is within sniping distance of Trump.

Trump has made statements to the left of Clinton and even Sanders while his poll numbers continue to increase. IMHO his appeal is potentially more far-reaching than anyone suspects.

Trump's appeal is less what he says (i.e. his policy positions) and more who he is (i.e. an anti-establishment candidate).

It's his policy positions that have painted him as an anti-establishment candidate. They're not (at all) detailed, but they do indeed paint broad strokes in regards to where Trump wants to take this country.

We can agree to disagree. His anti-establishment stance is more linked to his mannerisms and lack of political experience than anything else.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

Follow the DDOlympics
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Greyparrot
Posts: 14,325
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9/17/2015 6:03:04 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/17/2015 5:47:09 PM, bsh1 wrote:

We can agree to disagree. His anti-establishment stance is more linked to his mannerisms and lack of political experience than anything else.

I agree to disagree with this. His stance is directly related to the comments, "I buy politicians, they do not buy me"
Wylted
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9/17/2015 7:25:27 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 9/16/2015 8:33:16 PM, bsh1 wrote:
I saw a piece today [http://www.nationalreview.com...] which suggested--interestingly--that while Trump has "deep" support, it may not be "broad." This is meant in the sense that while he has a lot of supporters, there is a very distinct upward ceiling to his popularity, and that when other candidates start dropping out of the race, their supporters will defect to candidates other than Trump, because they dislike him so much. So, Trump's inability to capture these freed up voters will doom him later on.

Any thoughts regarding this hypothesis? The article is very interesting, too, and a good read.

I immediately thought that as well, and if these other candidates really hate trump, they'll strategically drop out of the race early if they know they can't win.