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Rand Paul expected to drop out soon

imabench
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10/5/2015 5:07:02 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
http://www.politico.com...

GOP insiders, who in this case are the top activists, operatives and strategists for GOP candidates in Iowa and New Hampshire, believe that Bobby Jindal and George Pataki will be the next GOP candidates to drop out of the race... 25% of Iowan insiders voted Jindal as their top pick, and 27% of New Hampshire insiders voted Pataki as their number one pick.

However, in both Iowa and New Hampshire as the article states, Rand Paul came in second place for next candidate to drop out.

Paul is the only candidate in the race who faces re-election in 2016, (He is a current senator of Kentucky). Paul therefore will sooner or later have to pick between running for President or running for Senator, and since he is in danger of falling out of being in the main GOP debate completely due to bad polling, he may become more inclined to drop out and safeguard his Senate reelection efforts rather then keep trying to go for the presidency as the nomination drags on. He has been polling and fundraising poorly, and there are others who believe that Paul will falter soon

http://www.theatlantic.com...
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com...
http://www.kentucky.com...

Now it wasn't surprising to me to see that Jindal and Pataki would be the next ones expected to drop out, both have been relegated to the lower-tier debates and have been polling at around 1% the entire time... But seeing Rand Paul be voted second most likely to drop out in BOTH New Hampshire AND Iowa was surprising to me. I figured he would falter sooner or later, but apparently he is not expected to outlast Santorum or even Lindsay Graham.

Thoughts?
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

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Greyparrot
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10/5/2015 5:19:50 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/5/2015 5:07:02 PM, imabench wrote:
http://www.politico.com...

GOP insiders, who in this case are the top activists, operatives and strategists for GOP candidates in Iowa and New Hampshire, believe that Bobby Jindal and George Pataki will be the next GOP candidates to drop out of the race... 25% of Iowan insiders voted Jindal as their top pick, and 27% of New Hampshire insiders voted Pataki as their number one pick.

However, in both Iowa and New Hampshire as the article states, Rand Paul came in second place for next candidate to drop out.

Paul is the only candidate in the race who faces re-election in 2016, (He is a current senator of Kentucky). Paul therefore will sooner or later have to pick between running for President or running for Senator, and since he is in danger of falling out of being in the main GOP debate completely due to bad polling, he may become more inclined to drop out and safeguard his Senate reelection efforts rather then keep trying to go for the presidency as the nomination drags on. He has been polling and fundraising poorly, and there are others who believe that Paul will falter soon

http://www.theatlantic.com...
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com...
http://www.kentucky.com...

Now it wasn't surprising to me to see that Jindal and Pataki would be the next ones expected to drop out, both have been relegated to the lower-tier debates and have been polling at around 1% the entire time... But seeing Rand Paul be voted second most likely to drop out in BOTH New Hampshire AND Iowa was surprising to me. I figured he would falter sooner or later, but apparently he is not expected to outlast Santorum or even Lindsay Graham.

Thoughts?

I am good with that, he did very poorly in the GOP debate.
TBR
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10/5/2015 5:31:52 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/5/2015 5:07:02 PM, imabench wrote:
http://www.politico.com...

GOP insiders, who in this case are the top activists, operatives and strategists for GOP candidates in Iowa and New Hampshire, believe that Bobby Jindal and George Pataki will be the next GOP candidates to drop out of the race... 25% of Iowan insiders voted Jindal as their top pick, and 27% of New Hampshire insiders voted Pataki as their number one pick.

However, in both Iowa and New Hampshire as the article states, Rand Paul came in second place for next candidate to drop out.

Paul is the only candidate in the race who faces re-election in 2016, (He is a current senator of Kentucky). Paul therefore will sooner or later have to pick between running for President or running for Senator, and since he is in danger of falling out of being in the main GOP debate completely due to bad polling, he may become more inclined to drop out and safeguard his Senate reelection efforts rather then keep trying to go for the presidency as the nomination drags on. He has been polling and fundraising poorly, and there are others who believe that Paul will falter soon

http://www.theatlantic.com...
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com...
http://www.kentucky.com...

Now it wasn't surprising to me to see that Jindal and Pataki would be the next ones expected to drop out, both have been relegated to the lower-tier debates and have been polling at around 1% the entire time... But seeing Rand Paul be voted second most likely to drop out in BOTH New Hampshire AND Iowa was surprising to me. I figured he would falter sooner or later, but apparently he is not expected to outlast Santorum or even Lindsay Graham.

Thoughts?

I am surprised too. The fervor for proper "outsider" status has never been stronger in the GOP. I expected Trump to truly be a flash in the pan, and get on with picking an actual candidate, but the base is insistent on the "no resume" crowd this year.

Just this AM I saw that Bush is looking to bring in his brother in the south. Now... That is astounding to me, but a clear indicator that the internal war in the GOP is full on.

Paul, for what its worth, was a serious enough guy. I would never have voted for him, but he would make me worry a lot more about independent than Trump/Carson/Fiorina.
Todd0611
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10/5/2015 5:32:52 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/5/2015 5:07:02 PM, imabench wrote:
http://www.politico.com...

GOP insiders, who in this case are the top activists, operatives and strategists for GOP candidates in Iowa and New Hampshire, believe that Bobby Jindal and George Pataki will be the next GOP candidates to drop out of the race... 25% of Iowan insiders voted Jindal as their top pick, and 27% of New Hampshire insiders voted Pataki as their number one pick.

However, in both Iowa and New Hampshire as the article states, Rand Paul came in second place for next candidate to drop out.

Paul is the only candidate in the race who faces re-election in 2016, (He is a current senator of Kentucky). Paul therefore will sooner or later have to pick between running for President or running for Senator, and since he is in danger of falling out of being in the main GOP debate completely due to bad polling, he may become more inclined to drop out and safeguard his Senate reelection efforts rather then keep trying to go for the presidency as the nomination drags on. He has been polling and fundraising poorly, and there are others who believe that Paul will falter soon

http://www.theatlantic.com...
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com...
http://www.kentucky.com...

Now it wasn't surprising to me to see that Jindal and Pataki would be the next ones expected to drop out, both have been relegated to the lower-tier debates and have been polling at around 1% the entire time... But seeing Rand Paul be voted second most likely to drop out in BOTH New Hampshire AND Iowa was surprising to me. I figured he would falter sooner or later, but apparently he is not expected to outlast Santorum or even Lindsay Graham.

Thoughts?

I think I posted after the 2nd debate somewhere that Rand, Huckabee, Walker, and Christie would be the next 4 to drop out, probably all due to poor polling, and fundraising in comparison to the other candidates. Personally, I think the media HATES Trump, and is doing everything to derail his bid for the nomination. I think the media wouldn't know what to do if Trump actually won the whole thing. That being said, I am not a huge supporter of Trump, but I think he is saying a lot of things that some, I said some Republican voters are thinking (so far as views on issues). I think some people believe Trump is a voice for those people who are sick of not being heard, and electing politicians who do not seem to deliver on what they promise.

An interesting poll, would be "who would you nominate, if Trump was no longer in the race?". If the Republican party doesn't believe Trump will win, then where do all those votes go? It seems he is getting 25-30% of the vote in polls, but if Trump wasn't a choice, who would get that percentage of votes. There was an article on CNN today I believe, where Rand Paul said he wasn't dropping out, and that he was in it for the long haul.

A few weeks ago, I figured Trump was just the "flavor of the month", but it's obvious now, that he's sticking around. It has to be somewhat hard for the other candidates to figure out a strategy of staying in, or dropping out, considering that if Trump doesn't last, will they have a shot (like Christie, Kasich, or some of the others who are polling low).
TBR
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10/5/2015 5:40:11 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
I have seem some polling, cant seem to find it right not, but Ted Cruz would get the Trump supporters if/when trump crashes.
Todd0611
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10/5/2015 5:51:46 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/5/2015 5:40:11 PM, TBR wrote:
I have seem some polling, cant seem to find it right not, but Ted Cruz would get the Trump supporters if/when trump crashes.

I'd love to see that polling- I'm sure the internals from the other candidates have to have done a poll like this, because somewhere in the back of some people minds is that Trump will be gone eventually. If other candidates are projecting that Trump is going to drop out eventually, how long can they sustain their campaigns financially? I'm here in Houston, and oddly enough, I would have thought to hear about a lot of support for Bush, but such really isn't the case. Bush just doesn't come off as inspiring, or even that likeable of a candidate. This has to be the strangest nomination cycle I've seen in the past 20-25 years. It's very early in the process, and they really need to whittle down the number of candidates.
imabench
Posts: 21,206
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10/5/2015 6:00:01 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/5/2015 5:40:11 PM, TBR wrote:
I have seem some polling, cant seem to find it right not, but Ted Cruz would get the Trump supporters if/when trump crashes.

I wouldnt be so sure about that. Trump's supporters are some of the least religious people in the GOP voter base, and its the religious right that Ted Cruz is trying to appeal to the hardest at the moment.

https://today.yougov.com...

If Trump drops out, I see his voter base more likely to hop on the Carson bandwagon if Carson is still in the race than Ted Cruz.
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
TBR
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10/5/2015 6:03:48 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/5/2015 6:00:01 PM, imabench wrote:
At 10/5/2015 5:40:11 PM, TBR wrote:
I have seem some polling, cant seem to find it right not, but Ted Cruz would get the Trump supporters if/when trump crashes.

I wouldnt be so sure about that. Trump's supporters are some of the least religious people in the GOP voter base, and its the religious right that Ted Cruz is trying to appeal to the hardest at the moment.

https://today.yougov.com...

If Trump drops out, I see his voter base more likely to hop on the Carson bandwagon if Carson is still in the race than Ted Cruz.

Carson is as baffling as Trump. I can't see Carson outlasting Trump.
Greyparrot
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10/5/2015 6:51:44 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/5/2015 6:39:30 PM, TBR wrote:
I am willing to put some money (with good odds) on Bush right now.

Bush still has vegas odds to win.
TBR
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10/5/2015 7:17:14 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/5/2015 6:51:44 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 10/5/2015 6:39:30 PM, TBR wrote:
I am willing to put some money (with good odds) on Bush right now.

Bush still has vegas odds to win.

I don't doubt it.
GeoLaureate8
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10/6/2015 3:55:53 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/5/2015 6:00:01 PM, imabench wrote:
I wouldnt be so sure about that. Trump's supporters are some of the least religious people in the GOP voter base, and its the religious right that Ted Cruz is trying to appeal to the hardest at the moment.

That logic does not follow. Ted Cruz already has evangelical support. If Trump drops out, Cruz will get a whole new set of voters, the populist anti-PC extremists. Cruz is not a one-dimensional candidate like Huckabee. I support Cruz and it has nothing to do with his evangelical outreach.

From the polls I've seen, Ted Cruz was the second choice of most Trump supporters. Trump/Cruz was the most popular ticket among Trump voters.

Cruz is already sweeping up Ron and Rand supporters and he will get a large part of their base.

"Cruz's campaign has made the case to Paul supporters that the Texas Republican can remain in the race for a long time -- and that while he does, he will espouse libertarian principles. At rallies this summer, Cruz has evoked the Fourth Amendment, railed against the Fed and talked about his efforts to end the bulk government collection of metadata."

http://www.washingtonpost.com...
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
1harderthanyouthink
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10/6/2015 4:18:30 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Bobby Jindal really pisses me off for some reason.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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TBR
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10/6/2015 4:54:40 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/6/2015 4:18:30 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
Bobby Jindal really pisses me off for some reason.

As ridiculous as the GOP field is, in both size and crazy, Jindal has no real shot.

I am open to bets on Bush now. Any takers?
Contra
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10/13/2015 5:24:42 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/5/2015 6:00:01 PM, imabench wrote:
At 10/5/2015 5:40:11 PM, TBR wrote:
I have seem some polling, cant seem to find it right not, but Ted Cruz would get the Trump supporters if/when trump crashes.

I wouldnt be so sure about that. Trump's supporters are some of the least religious people in the GOP voter base, and its the religious right that Ted Cruz is trying to appeal to the hardest at the moment.

https://today.yougov.com...

If Trump drops out, I see his voter base more likely to hop on the Carson bandwagon if Carson is still in the race than Ted Cruz.

I still don't know why... why is Ted Cruz running for president if he has only been a senator for about 2.5 years?!
"The solution [for Republicans] is to admit that Bush was a bad president, stop this racist homophobic stuff, stop trying to give most of the tax cuts to the rich, propose a real alternative to Obamacare that actually works, and propose smart free market solutions to our economic problems." - Distraff

"Americans are better off in a dynamic, free-enterprise-based economy that fosters economic growth, opportunity and upward mobility." - Paul Ryan
Contra
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10/13/2015 5:25:47 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/6/2015 3:55:53 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
Cruz has evoked the Fourth Amendment, railed against the Fed and talked about his efforts to end the bulk government collection of metadata."

I mean I thought that the metadata was being held by private telecommunications companies, and only released to the government when they had a proper warrant... isn't that the case?
"The solution [for Republicans] is to admit that Bush was a bad president, stop this racist homophobic stuff, stop trying to give most of the tax cuts to the rich, propose a real alternative to Obamacare that actually works, and propose smart free market solutions to our economic problems." - Distraff

"Americans are better off in a dynamic, free-enterprise-based economy that fosters economic growth, opportunity and upward mobility." - Paul Ryan
GeoLaureate8
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10/13/2015 10:50:26 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/13/2015 5:25:47 PM, Contra wrote:
At 10/6/2015 3:55:53 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
Cruz has evoked the Fourth Amendment, railed against the Fed and talked about his efforts to end the bulk government collection of metadata."

I mean I thought that the metadata was being held by private telecommunications companies, and only released to the government when they had a proper warrant... isn't that the case?

No, but that's what the USA FREEDOM Act requires, a bill that he co-sponsored. Many libertarians were upset that it didn't go far enough but I think it was a great step toward ending direct government spying of records.
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
Contra
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10/15/2015 3:55:11 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/13/2015 10:50:26 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
At 10/13/2015 5:25:47 PM, Contra wrote:
At 10/6/2015 3:55:53 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
Cruz has evoked the Fourth Amendment, railed against the Fed and talked about his efforts to end the bulk government collection of metadata."

I mean I thought that the metadata was being held by private telecommunications companies, and only released to the government when they had a proper warrant... isn't that the case?

No, but that's what the USA FREEDOM Act requires, a bill that he co-sponsored. Many libertarians were upset that it didn't go far enough but I think it was a great step toward ending direct government spying of records.

I thought that the FREEDOM Act passed in June... are you saying that the USFG is just ignoring this part of the law? And if so, what is your evidence?
"The solution [for Republicans] is to admit that Bush was a bad president, stop this racist homophobic stuff, stop trying to give most of the tax cuts to the rich, propose a real alternative to Obamacare that actually works, and propose smart free market solutions to our economic problems." - Distraff

"Americans are better off in a dynamic, free-enterprise-based economy that fosters economic growth, opportunity and upward mobility." - Paul Ryan
GeoLaureate8
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10/15/2015 6:04:00 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/15/2015 3:55:11 AM, Contra wrote:
I thought that the FREEDOM Act passed in June... are you saying that the USFG is just ignoring this part of the law? And if so, what is your evidence?

I don't know what the Federal government is doing right now. I'm simply saying that the USA FREEDOM Act shifted data collection from the NSA to the private telecoms and the NSA has to get a warrant to obtain records. NSA isn't supposed to be directly collecting bulk phone record data. That's my understanding of it.
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
Contra
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10/15/2015 5:37:28 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/15/2015 6:04:00 AM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
At 10/15/2015 3:55:11 AM, Contra wrote:
I thought that the FREEDOM Act passed in June... are you saying that the USFG is just ignoring this part of the law? And if so, what is your evidence?

I don't know what the Federal government is doing right now. I'm simply saying that the USA FREEDOM Act shifted data collection from the NSA to the private telecoms and the NSA has to get a warrant to obtain records. NSA isn't supposed to be directly collecting bulk phone record data. That's my understanding of it.

Ok, I share the same line of understanding then as you. Good good.
"The solution [for Republicans] is to admit that Bush was a bad president, stop this racist homophobic stuff, stop trying to give most of the tax cuts to the rich, propose a real alternative to Obamacare that actually works, and propose smart free market solutions to our economic problems." - Distraff

"Americans are better off in a dynamic, free-enterprise-based economy that fosters economic growth, opportunity and upward mobility." - Paul Ryan
KingoSchenk
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10/16/2015 12:31:34 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Rand Paul has said he was planning on running in this race years ago (my memory), so I think he has a lot of hope to get back on top.
Ore_Ele
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10/16/2015 12:57:53 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Not only should he pull out, but his father should have pulled out, back in 1962!
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
imabench
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10/16/2015 2:33:04 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/16/2015 12:57:53 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
Not only should he pull out, but his father should have pulled out, back in 1962!
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
YYW
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10/16/2015 2:36:35 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/5/2015 5:07:02 PM, imabench wrote:
http://www.politico.com...

GOP insiders, who in this case are the top activists, operatives and strategists for GOP candidates in Iowa and New Hampshire, believe that Bobby Jindal and George Pataki will be the next GOP candidates to drop out of the race... 25% of Iowan insiders voted Jindal as their top pick, and 27% of New Hampshire insiders voted Pataki as their number one pick.

However, in both Iowa and New Hampshire as the article states, Rand Paul came in second place for next candidate to drop out.

Paul is the only candidate in the race who faces re-election in 2016, (He is a current senator of Kentucky). Paul therefore will sooner or later have to pick between running for President or running for Senator, and since he is in danger of falling out of being in the main GOP debate completely due to bad polling, he may become more inclined to drop out and safeguard his Senate reelection efforts rather then keep trying to go for the presidency as the nomination drags on. He has been polling and fundraising poorly, and there are others who believe that Paul will falter soon

http://www.theatlantic.com...
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com...
http://www.kentucky.com...

Now it wasn't surprising to me to see that Jindal and Pataki would be the next ones expected to drop out, both have been relegated to the lower-tier debates and have been polling at around 1% the entire time... But seeing Rand Paul be voted second most likely to drop out in BOTH New Hampshire AND Iowa was surprising to me. I figured he would falter sooner or later, but apparently he is not expected to outlast Santorum or even Lindsay Graham.

Thoughts?

I don't see Rand Paul dropping out before New Hampshire, at the very least.
Tsar of DDO
imabench
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10/16/2015 4:10:29 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/16/2015 2:36:35 AM, YYW wrote:
At 10/5/2015 5:07:02 PM, imabench wrote:
http://www.politico.com...

GOP insiders, who in this case are the top activists, operatives and strategists for GOP candidates in Iowa and New Hampshire, believe that Bobby Jindal and George Pataki will be the next GOP candidates to drop out of the race... 25% of Iowan insiders voted Jindal as their top pick, and 27% of New Hampshire insiders voted Pataki as their number one pick.

However, in both Iowa and New Hampshire as the article states, Rand Paul came in second place for next candidate to drop out.

Paul is the only candidate in the race who faces re-election in 2016, (He is a current senator of Kentucky). Paul therefore will sooner or later have to pick between running for President or running for Senator, and since he is in danger of falling out of being in the main GOP debate completely due to bad polling, he may become more inclined to drop out and safeguard his Senate reelection efforts rather then keep trying to go for the presidency as the nomination drags on. He has been polling and fundraising poorly, and there are others who believe that Paul will falter soon

http://www.theatlantic.com...
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com...
http://www.kentucky.com...

Now it wasn't surprising to me to see that Jindal and Pataki would be the next ones expected to drop out, both have been relegated to the lower-tier debates and have been polling at around 1% the entire time... But seeing Rand Paul be voted second most likely to drop out in BOTH New Hampshire AND Iowa was surprising to me. I figured he would falter sooner or later, but apparently he is not expected to outlast Santorum or even Lindsay Graham.

Thoughts?

I don't see Rand Paul dropping out before New Hampshire, at the very least.

I don't either, I was just surprised that his campaign is apparently so weak this early into the race to the point that the people who work in the campaigns themselves think he will be the one of the next ones to drop out
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
Vox_Veritas
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10/16/2015 4:56:38 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
He's a small fry. It'd be pointless for him to stay in the race, so I guess that this is him embracing reality.
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Ore_Ele
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10/16/2015 6:57:41 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/16/2015 4:56:38 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
He's a small fry. It'd be pointless for him to stay in the race, so I guess that this is him embracing reality.

But it is also meaningless for him to back out. It's not like he is skewing the numbers by any significant amount. All he is doing is showing how little support the "libertarian" party has (and by ""libertarian" party," I mean the uber right wing nuts that are so far right, they don't call themselves republicans and utterly love him and his dad).
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"