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Next Presidential Election (USA)

Mikal
Posts: 11,270
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10/6/2015 10:33:17 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
I want thoughts on who is going to win.

Typically I would think Tump did not have a chance. My initial thoughts on his early domination were that there were enough supported behind him that would give him a significant lead (30 percent or so) and that the other 70 percent or people that hated him, would default to the person he was running again. So I expected trump to lead all the way up until there were 2 or 3 candidates that were clearly going to be the front runner and then the massive amount of hate (the 30 percent that is not in favor of him) would flounder to the runner up. I think I hit it pretty spot on, it may not be exactly 30 but its pretty close

The issue I'm seeing now is who the runner ups are

(1) Carson : who is a black republican
(2) Fioriana : a republican female

Both of which I would not expect the GOP to embrace with open arms. Republicans are typically pretty socially right and have inherent perceptions of certain social classes and people of a certain ethnicity. I could not see the GOP getting behind a black candidate or a woman as a runner up.

So the question I'm wondering is the other 70 percent that hate trump, would they default to carson or fiorina who they typically would not vote for or will they suck it up and vote for trump.

I think the election has 2 possible outcomes

Trump vs Carson
or Trump vs Fiorina

Judging by the polls and the consistent nature of how they are going (granted polls are to elections what pre season rankings are to football) , I expect it to go trump vs carson.

I think Carson will end up overtaking trump just due to trumps controversial nature and the remarks he has made. I'm quite curious to see how it plays out and to see if the GOP will actually elect a black candidate for the republican runner.

to take it further, I don't think Sanders has a shot at Clinton and feel she has it locked up. Partially because her name is Clinton, partially because shes a woman, and partially because quite a few liberals want to continue what Obama did (so being a woman and a previous member of his admin will help her)

So I expect it to come down to two possible scenarios

Likely :

Carson vs Clinton

Carson will slightly win because of Clinton's past (Benghazi , the email scandal, etc)

Unlikely :

Trump vs Clinton

Clinton will landslide it

So i'm quite curious to see how the GOP will play their cards , but sending trump to run against Clinton promises democrats another 4 years imo.
xus00HAY
Posts: 1,393
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10/8/2015 2:06:56 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
I did not think Trump would win either, but think about it , Trump has so much more money than the other candidates , therefore he can afford to refuse money because of who is donating it.
The other candidates, have all these friends who donate enormous amounts of money.
There is this theory that most of the money donated to these political campaigns comes from rich people who expect something in return. Perhaps Mr. Trump knows some things about the other candidates. There must be some people who would have run this year, but they are worried that the detectives that work for Mr. Trump have dug up enough on them that in one 30 second spot he could convince the voters that this guy can be bought.
If by November 2016 we have a choice between the Donald , and the Whore, I will not be surprised.
imabench
Posts: 21,220
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10/8/2015 2:52:22 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Leadership of the GOP nomination has never been constant. Early on Christie was in the lead, then Rand Paul, then back to Christie, then Huckabee led, then Paul led again, then Bush built a big lead, then Scott Walker came into the picture, then Bush regained the lead, then Trump took it....

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

We're now at the point where candidates are dropping out of the race though rather than jumping into it, which is where we can see people shifting their voting allegiances. There are three main groups of GOP voters that I can divide all candidates into:

Ultra religious crowd (Support Cruz, Santorum, Huckabee)
Reasonable moderate crowd (Support Bush, Rubio, Kasich)
The p*ssed off crowd (Support Trump, Fiorina, Carson)

The p*ssed off crowd currently have the top 3 candidates in the polls since Trump, Carson, and Fiorina rank 1-2-3 respectively. Bush and Rubio then split the moderate voters, with Cruz getting just about all of the ultra-religious crowd since he kicks the sh** out of Huckabee and Santorum, the other hugely religious people in the race.

The 6 candidates who I believe will last the longest will be Trump, Carson, Fiorina, Cruz, Bush, and Rubio, since we are now seeing lesser candidates pull the plug on their campaigns. As each lesser candidate goes down, only a minor shift in the voting base will be observed since the lesser candidates only have up to 5% of the vote, which will be diffused towards other candidates as the race drags on. Until we are down to the main 6, it will be the GOP debates that will have the biggest impact on shifting voting bases.

I see Fiorina and Carson outlasting Trump. Trump continues to catch sh** from people for comments about literally everything he makes, and with the recent anti-vaxxer remarks, the anti-muslim remarks, and the below-the-belt shots at other candidates, the whole bully-pulpit mentality he has been thriving on up to this point is going to run out. He's lost 8% points in the past 3 weeks alone, and the only thing that changed was how he looked in the main debates.

So we are down to Fiorina, Carson, Cruz, Rubio, and Bush. Cruz is the safest since he will have the hard-religious vote locked up, and could eat into the Carson and Fiorina voter base by labeling himself as a political 'outsider' like Carson and Fiorina have. If he starts showing up at debates, he could even annex their voting bases outright, but I dont see that happening, since Ted Cruz is a dumba**.

Bush and Rubio will compete hard for the moderate vote, which is what I am interested in watching, because I think Rubio will win. Bush is of course related to W. which he nor anyone else can ignore, and his recent comments on the Oregon shooting have bitten him pretty hard. Rubio is clean though, young enough to still try to appeal to voters as an 'outsider' since he's a 1st term senator, and I know a lot of moderate leaning GOP voters who like him. I think he'll outlast Bush since Bush's campaign is falling (was first, now around 5th) while Rubio has been steady around 4th for most of the recent race.

That brings us to Carson, Fiorina, Rubio, and Cruz

Fiorina's record at HP will come up and bite her, since it did when she tried to run for office in California and lost hard to Barbara Boxer. Carson does not have any negative record for other people to exploit as hard as Fiorina's record at HP, and her recent comments about Planned Parenthood could drive away casual moderate voters and even female voters as well, so I think Carson will prevail over her in trying to court the p*ssed off voters who want an outsider as president

So we're at Carson, Rubio, and Cruz

Cruz wont win, cause he's an idiot

Carson v Rubio

Those are the two I think it will come down to, but it could easily be Carsn v Bush

Thats my opinion
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