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Post-Debate Polling (Dems)

bsh1
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10/16/2015 6:27:09 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Two polls recently came out (HuffPost/YouGov and NBC/Survey Monkey) which show that a majority of registered Democrats believe Hillary won the debate (55% and 56%, respectively).

Immediately after the debate, several unscientific polls showed Sanders winning by huge margins, but, these polls are inherently less reliable. Moreover, the social media and internet attention Sanders received is being attributed by pundits to his already vocal fan base and to many voters just not knowing who he is and thus needing to research him online.

While opinions of Bernie increased after the debate, so too did those of Hillary. Thoughts?

[http://www.huffingtonpost.com...]
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1harderthanyouthink
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10/16/2015 6:56:49 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
I thought the 85-10 was off, but I didn't think the majority thought Clinton won. And when did SurveyMonkey become sources of statistically accurate polling, though?
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
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1harderthanyouthink
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10/16/2015 6:59:48 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
The margin is still the same after the polls. Both Sanders and Clinton seemed to have taken evenly from Biden.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

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bsh1
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10/16/2015 7:04:10 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/16/2015 6:56:49 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
I thought the 85-10 was off, but I didn't think the majority thought Clinton won. And when did SurveyMonkey become sources of statistically accurate polling, though?

Survey Monkey is actually making a bid to become a reliable pollster, because it relies on reliability to succeed. Business now can hire Survey Monkey to do research for them, and these business won't use the site again if they get bad data back. So, it's new in this area, but reasonably trustworthy.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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1harderthanyouthink
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10/16/2015 7:04:12 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/16/2015 6:27:09 PM, bsh1 wrote:

How many people took these polls?
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

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bsh1
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10/16/2015 7:05:19 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/16/2015 7:04:12 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 10/16/2015 6:27:09 PM, bsh1 wrote:

How many people took these polls?

IDK...You'd have to check. I mean, I thought Clinton be the sh*t out of Bernie...Like, I didn't understand how anyone thought he won...He was passionate on a few topics, but he wasn't commanding.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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PetersSmith
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10/16/2015 7:06:39 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/16/2015 6:27:09 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Two polls recently came out (HuffPost/YouGov and NBC/Survey Monkey) which show that a majority of registered Democrats believe Hillary won the debate (55% and 56%, respectively).

Immediately after the debate, several unscientific polls showed Sanders winning by huge margins, but, these polls are inherently less reliable. Moreover, the social media and internet attention Sanders received is being attributed by pundits to his already vocal fan base and to many voters just not knowing who he is and thus needing to research him online.

While opinions of Bernie increased after the debate, so too did those of Hillary. Thoughts?

[http://www.huffingtonpost.com...]

I think it would be wise if one of them becomes president they choose the other as vice president.
Empress of DDO (also Poll and Forum "Maintenance" Moderator)

"The two most important days in your life is the day you were born, and the day you find out why."
~Mark Twain

"Wow"
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"Don't believe everything you read on the internet just because there's a picture with a quote next to it."
~Abraham Lincoln

Guide to the Polls Section: http://www.debate.org...
bsh1
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10/16/2015 7:07:39 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/16/2015 7:06:39 PM, PetersSmith wrote:
At 10/16/2015 6:27:09 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Two polls recently came out (HuffPost/YouGov and NBC/Survey Monkey) which show that a majority of registered Democrats believe Hillary won the debate (55% and 56%, respectively).

Immediately after the debate, several unscientific polls showed Sanders winning by huge margins, but, these polls are inherently less reliable. Moreover, the social media and internet attention Sanders received is being attributed by pundits to his already vocal fan base and to many voters just not knowing who he is and thus needing to research him online.

While opinions of Bernie increased after the debate, so too did those of Hillary. Thoughts?

[http://www.huffingtonpost.com...]

I think it would be wise if one of them becomes president they choose the other as vice president.

It makes no sense for Hillary to have Bernie as her Veep. It does make sense the other way round, but it still wouldn't be the best choice.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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TBR
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10/16/2015 7:09:41 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/16/2015 6:27:09 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Two polls recently came out (HuffPost/YouGov and NBC/Survey Monkey) which show that a majority of registered Democrats believe Hillary won the debate (55% and 56%, respectively).

Immediately after the debate, several unscientific polls showed Sanders winning by huge margins, but, these polls are inherently less reliable. Moreover, the social media and internet attention Sanders received is being attributed by pundits to his already vocal fan base and to many voters just not knowing who he is and thus needing to research him online.

While opinions of Bernie increased after the debate, so too did those of Hillary. Thoughts?

[http://www.huffingtonpost.com...]

The polls coming out today are more in-line with what I saw.
PetersSmith
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10/16/2015 7:11:06 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/16/2015 7:07:39 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 10/16/2015 7:06:39 PM, PetersSmith wrote:
At 10/16/2015 6:27:09 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Two polls recently came out (HuffPost/YouGov and NBC/Survey Monkey) which show that a majority of registered Democrats believe Hillary won the debate (55% and 56%, respectively).

Immediately after the debate, several unscientific polls showed Sanders winning by huge margins, but, these polls are inherently less reliable. Moreover, the social media and internet attention Sanders received is being attributed by pundits to his already vocal fan base and to many voters just not knowing who he is and thus needing to research him online.

While opinions of Bernie increased after the debate, so too did those of Hillary. Thoughts?

[http://www.huffingtonpost.com...]

I think it would be wise if one of them becomes president they choose the other as vice president.

It makes no sense for Hillary to have Bernie as her Veep. It does make sense the other way round, but it still wouldn't be the best choice.

Who do you propose then? I think ideally, if Trump one Bernie would be his VP and if Bernie won Trump would be his VP.
Empress of DDO (also Poll and Forum "Maintenance" Moderator)

"The two most important days in your life is the day you were born, and the day you find out why."
~Mark Twain

"Wow"
-Doge

"Don't believe everything you read on the internet just because there's a picture with a quote next to it."
~Abraham Lincoln

Guide to the Polls Section: http://www.debate.org...
1harderthanyouthink
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10/16/2015 7:12:06 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/16/2015 7:05:19 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 10/16/2015 7:04:12 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 10/16/2015 6:27:09 PM, bsh1 wrote:

How many people took these polls?

IDK...You'd have to check. I mean, I thought Clinton be the sh*t out of Bernie...Like, I didn't understand how anyone thought he won...He was passionate on a few topics, but he wasn't commanding.

The HuffPost poll had 450 people take it.

And I don't think either of them beat the sh!t out of the other. I also don't know how he wasn't commanding. I think you should define "commanding".

Hell, I don't think either of them even did much better than O'Malley - they just got over 10 minutes more each.

And if you looked at the polls with the independent's data included - the view improved for Bernie and Clinton evenly at 46% each - rather than 52-42% for registered Democrats only.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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TBR
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10/16/2015 7:12:07 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
The base is much more charged up with Sanders - when you open up to "registered demos" Clinton will do better. Add that to what was a good but far from great debate for Sanders, and this looks about right.
bsh1
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10/16/2015 7:12:18 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/16/2015 7:11:06 PM, PetersSmith wrote:
At 10/16/2015 7:07:39 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 10/16/2015 7:06:39 PM, PetersSmith wrote:
At 10/16/2015 6:27:09 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Two polls recently came out (HuffPost/YouGov and NBC/Survey Monkey) which show that a majority of registered Democrats believe Hillary won the debate (55% and 56%, respectively).

Immediately after the debate, several unscientific polls showed Sanders winning by huge margins, but, these polls are inherently less reliable. Moreover, the social media and internet attention Sanders received is being attributed by pundits to his already vocal fan base and to many voters just not knowing who he is and thus needing to research him online.

While opinions of Bernie increased after the debate, so too did those of Hillary. Thoughts?

[http://www.huffingtonpost.com...]

I think it would be wise if one of them becomes president they choose the other as vice president.

It makes no sense for Hillary to have Bernie as her Veep. It does make sense the other way round, but it still wouldn't be the best choice.

Who do you propose then? I think ideally, if Trump one Bernie would be his VP and if Bernie won Trump would be his VP.

http://www.debate.org...
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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bsh1
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10/16/2015 7:12:50 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/16/2015 7:09:41 PM, TBR wrote:
At 10/16/2015 6:27:09 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Two polls recently came out (HuffPost/YouGov and NBC/Survey Monkey) which show that a majority of registered Democrats believe Hillary won the debate (55% and 56%, respectively).

Immediately after the debate, several unscientific polls showed Sanders winning by huge margins, but, these polls are inherently less reliable. Moreover, the social media and internet attention Sanders received is being attributed by pundits to his already vocal fan base and to many voters just not knowing who he is and thus needing to research him online.

While opinions of Bernie increased after the debate, so too did those of Hillary. Thoughts?

[http://www.huffingtonpost.com...]

The polls coming out today are more in-line with what I saw.

You mean, your initial reaction that Hillary won?
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

Follow the DDOlympics
: http://www.debate.org...

Open Debate Topics Project: http://www.debate.org...
PetersSmith
Posts: 5,812
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10/16/2015 7:14:04 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/16/2015 7:12:18 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 10/16/2015 7:11:06 PM, PetersSmith wrote:
At 10/16/2015 7:07:39 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 10/16/2015 7:06:39 PM, PetersSmith wrote:
At 10/16/2015 6:27:09 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Two polls recently came out (HuffPost/YouGov and NBC/Survey Monkey) which show that a majority of registered Democrats believe Hillary won the debate (55% and 56%, respectively).

Immediately after the debate, several unscientific polls showed Sanders winning by huge margins, but, these polls are inherently less reliable. Moreover, the social media and internet attention Sanders received is being attributed by pundits to his already vocal fan base and to many voters just not knowing who he is and thus needing to research him online.

While opinions of Bernie increased after the debate, so too did those of Hillary. Thoughts?

[http://www.huffingtonpost.com...]

I think it would be wise if one of them becomes president they choose the other as vice president.

It makes no sense for Hillary to have Bernie as her Veep. It does make sense the other way round, but it still wouldn't be the best choice.

Who do you propose then? I think ideally, if Trump one Bernie would be his VP and if Bernie won Trump would be his VP.

http://www.debate.org...

I think I'd agree with O'Malley for that one. That was very thought out and well-done.
Empress of DDO (also Poll and Forum "Maintenance" Moderator)

"The two most important days in your life is the day you were born, and the day you find out why."
~Mark Twain

"Wow"
-Doge

"Don't believe everything you read on the internet just because there's a picture with a quote next to it."
~Abraham Lincoln

Guide to the Polls Section: http://www.debate.org...
1harderthanyouthink
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10/16/2015 7:14:51 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
And I think the less favorable after the debate question is very important. For Democrats, opinions worsened 12% and 5% for Clinton and Sanders, respectively. For independents, opinions worsened 36% for Clinton and just 22% for Sanders.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
TBR
Posts: 9,991
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10/16/2015 7:15:18 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/16/2015 7:12:50 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 10/16/2015 7:09:41 PM, TBR wrote:
At 10/16/2015 6:27:09 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Two polls recently came out (HuffPost/YouGov and NBC/Survey Monkey) which show that a majority of registered Democrats believe Hillary won the debate (55% and 56%, respectively).

Immediately after the debate, several unscientific polls showed Sanders winning by huge margins, but, these polls are inherently less reliable. Moreover, the social media and internet attention Sanders received is being attributed by pundits to his already vocal fan base and to many voters just not knowing who he is and thus needing to research him online.

While opinions of Bernie increased after the debate, so too did those of Hillary. Thoughts?

[http://www.huffingtonpost.com...]

The polls coming out today are more in-line with what I saw.

You mean, your initial reaction that Hillary won?

Yea. She was, to my eyes, the clear winner. Sanders needed to do much more in my opinion. He needed to prove a lot more than she had to. She, on the other hand, did had a solid performance.
bsh1
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10/16/2015 7:15:59 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/16/2015 7:12:06 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 10/16/2015 7:05:19 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 10/16/2015 7:04:12 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 10/16/2015 6:27:09 PM, bsh1 wrote:

How many people took these polls?

IDK...You'd have to check. I mean, I thought Clinton be the sh*t out of Bernie...Like, I didn't understand how anyone thought he won...He was passionate on a few topics, but he wasn't commanding.

The HuffPost poll had 450 people take it.

Out of just registered Democrats who won the debate? That doesn't seem that off.

And I don't think either of them beat the sh!t out of the other. I also don't know how he wasn't commanding. I think you should define "commanding".

She definitely crushed. I mean, Bernie looked like he spaced out a few times, and his passion didn't really strike me. Hillary's confidence permeated throughout the entire debate. She looked far more knowledgeable about more issues than Sanders, as well.

And if you looked at the polls with the independent's data included - the view improved for Bernie and Clinton evenly at 46% each - rather than 52-42% for registered Democrats only.

Right, but that still puts Clinton ahead. And independents aren't gonna vote in the primaries.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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bsh1
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10/16/2015 7:16:38 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/16/2015 7:14:04 PM, PetersSmith wrote:
At 10/16/2015 7:12:18 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 10/16/2015 7:11:06 PM, PetersSmith wrote:
Who do you propose then? I think ideally, if Trump one Bernie would be his VP and if Bernie won Trump would be his VP.

http://www.debate.org...

I think I'd agree with O'Malley for that one. That was very thought out and well-done.

Thanks.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

Follow the DDOlympics
: http://www.debate.org...

Open Debate Topics Project: http://www.debate.org...
TBR
Posts: 9,991
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10/16/2015 7:17:08 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/16/2015 7:14:51 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
And I think the less favorable after the debate question is very important. For Democrats, opinions worsened 12% and 5% for Clinton and Sanders, respectively. For independents, opinions worsened 36% for Clinton and just 22% for Sanders.

That is very interesting.
bsh1
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10/16/2015 7:17:28 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/16/2015 7:15:18 PM, TBR wrote:
At 10/16/2015 7:12:50 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 10/16/2015 7:09:41 PM, TBR wrote:
At 10/16/2015 6:27:09 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Two polls recently came out (HuffPost/YouGov and NBC/Survey Monkey) which show that a majority of registered Democrats believe Hillary won the debate (55% and 56%, respectively).

Immediately after the debate, several unscientific polls showed Sanders winning by huge margins, but, these polls are inherently less reliable. Moreover, the social media and internet attention Sanders received is being attributed by pundits to his already vocal fan base and to many voters just not knowing who he is and thus needing to research him online.

While opinions of Bernie increased after the debate, so too did those of Hillary. Thoughts?

[http://www.huffingtonpost.com...]

The polls coming out today are more in-line with what I saw.

You mean, your initial reaction that Hillary won?

Yea. She was, to my eyes, the clear winner. Sanders needed to do much more in my opinion. He needed to prove a lot more than she had to. She, on the other hand, did had a solid performance.

Agreed.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

Follow the DDOlympics
: http://www.debate.org...

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bsh1
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10/16/2015 7:18:00 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/16/2015 7:14:51 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
And I think the less favorable after the debate question is very important. For Democrats, opinions worsened 12% and 5% for Clinton and Sanders, respectively. For independents, opinions worsened 36% for Clinton and just 22% for Sanders.

Among which groups did those occur. If Sanders supporters became more disenchanted with Clinton, that's hardly important.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

Follow the DDOlympics
: http://www.debate.org...

Open Debate Topics Project: http://www.debate.org...
1harderthanyouthink
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10/16/2015 7:20:32 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/16/2015 7:18:00 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 10/16/2015 7:14:51 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
And I think the less favorable after the debate question is very important. For Democrats, opinions worsened 12% and 5% for Clinton and Sanders, respectively. For independents, opinions worsened 36% for Clinton and just 22% for Sanders.

Among which groups did those occur. If Sanders supporters became more disenchanted with Clinton, that's hardly important.

It only listed party ID.

I expect the margin to close between the two in the polls regardless of the opinion on who "won" - the more people that know who Sanders is, the more I expect him to rise as a matter of alternative, regardless of substance agreement.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
bsh1
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10/16/2015 7:23:13 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/16/2015 7:20:32 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 10/16/2015 7:18:00 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 10/16/2015 7:14:51 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
And I think the less favorable after the debate question is very important. For Democrats, opinions worsened 12% and 5% for Clinton and Sanders, respectively. For independents, opinions worsened 36% for Clinton and just 22% for Sanders.

Among which groups did those occur. If Sanders supporters became more disenchanted with Clinton, that's hardly important.

It only listed party ID.

Okay. Then I don't think the data is esp. useful.

I expect the margin to close between the two in the polls regardless of the opinion on who "won" - the more people that know who Sanders is, the more I expect him to rise as a matter of alternative, regardless of substance agreement.

I disagree. Even within the Democratic party, there is an upward limit on liberalism. Only about 30-35% of the base shares his opinions, and the rest are up for grabs. Maybe Sanders can pull in a few more, but I don't think he could ever get more than 40% of the vote, and I'd be surprised if he got more than 35%.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

Follow the DDOlympics
: http://www.debate.org...

Open Debate Topics Project: http://www.debate.org...
1harderthanyouthink
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10/16/2015 7:27:06 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/16/2015 7:23:13 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 10/16/2015 7:20:32 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 10/16/2015 7:18:00 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 10/16/2015 7:14:51 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
And I think the less favorable after the debate question is very important. For Democrats, opinions worsened 12% and 5% for Clinton and Sanders, respectively. For independents, opinions worsened 36% for Clinton and just 22% for Sanders.

Among which groups did those occur. If Sanders supporters became more disenchanted with Clinton, that's hardly important.

It only listed party ID.

Okay. Then I don't think the data is esp. useful.

Then none of it is, lol. Polling was from an opt-in survey system on YouGov.

I expect the margin to close between the two in the polls regardless of the opinion on who "won" - the more people that know who Sanders is, the more I expect him to rise as a matter of alternative, regardless of substance agreement.

I disagree. Even within the Democratic party, there is an upward limit on liberalism. Only about 30-35% of the base shares his opinions, and the rest are up for grabs. Maybe Sanders can pull in a few more, but I don't think he could ever get more than 40% of the vote, and I'd be surprised if he got more than 35%.

How many people share the opinions of Trump in the GOP? People literally support him because he's not what the establishment thinks is good.

And in regards to how many people want Clinton to be President - I think the people that don't are really adamant in their opinion that she should not be elected. There's motivation for a lot of people to err to Sanders.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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TBR
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10/16/2015 7:38:43 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/16/2015 7:23:13 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 10/16/2015 7:20:32 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 10/16/2015 7:18:00 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 10/16/2015 7:14:51 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
And I think the less favorable after the debate question is very important. For Democrats, opinions worsened 12% and 5% for Clinton and Sanders, respectively. For independents, opinions worsened 36% for Clinton and just 22% for Sanders.

Among which groups did those occur. If Sanders supporters became more disenchanted with Clinton, that's hardly important.

It only listed party ID.

Okay. Then I don't think the data is esp. useful.

I expect the margin to close between the two in the polls regardless of the opinion on who "won" - the more people that know who Sanders is, the more I expect him to rise as a matter of alternative, regardless of substance agreement.

I disagree. Even within the Democratic party, there is an upward limit on liberalism. Only about 30-35% of the base shares his opinions, and the rest are up for grabs. Maybe Sanders can pull in a few more, but I don't think he could ever get more than 40% of the vote, and I'd be surprised if he got more than 35%.

For what its worth, this race has echos of the Obama/Clinton race. Clinton supporters said the same thing last time around - not verbatim but the same dismissing lines.
bsh1
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10/16/2015 7:39:54 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/16/2015 7:38:43 PM, TBR wrote:
At 10/16/2015 7:23:13 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 10/16/2015 7:20:32 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 10/16/2015 7:18:00 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 10/16/2015 7:14:51 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
And I think the less favorable after the debate question is very important. For Democrats, opinions worsened 12% and 5% for Clinton and Sanders, respectively. For independents, opinions worsened 36% for Clinton and just 22% for Sanders.

Among which groups did those occur. If Sanders supporters became more disenchanted with Clinton, that's hardly important.

It only listed party ID.

Okay. Then I don't think the data is esp. useful.

I expect the margin to close between the two in the polls regardless of the opinion on who "won" - the more people that know who Sanders is, the more I expect him to rise as a matter of alternative, regardless of substance agreement.

I disagree. Even within the Democratic party, there is an upward limit on liberalism. Only about 30-35% of the base shares his opinions, and the rest are up for grabs. Maybe Sanders can pull in a few more, but I don't think he could ever get more than 40% of the vote, and I'd be surprised if he got more than 35%.

For what its worth, this race has echos of the Obama/Clinton race. Clinton supporters said the same thing last time around - not verbatim but the same dismissing lines.

Echoes...but I don't think it's quiet the same anymore...
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bsh1
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10/16/2015 7:45:59 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/16/2015 7:27:06 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 10/16/2015 7:23:13 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 10/16/2015 7:20:32 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 10/16/2015 7:18:00 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 10/16/2015 7:14:51 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:

Okay. Then I don't think the data is esp. useful.

Then none of it is, lol. Polling was from an opt-in survey system on YouGov.

You're forgetting the other poll involved.

I disagree. Even within the Democratic party, there is an upward limit on liberalism. Only about 30-35% of the base shares his opinions, and the rest are up for grabs. Maybe Sanders can pull in a few more, but I don't think he could ever get more than 40% of the vote, and I'd be surprised if he got more than 35%.

How many people share the opinions of Trump in the GOP? People literally support him because he's not what the establishment thinks is good.

The Democratic Party is--thank the heavens--not the GOP. Democrats are more at-ease with the establishment then we were in 2008, largely because we're in the White House.

And in regards to how many people want Clinton to be President - I think the people that don't are really adamant in their opinion that she should not be elected. There's motivation for a lot of people to err to Sanders.

I think that there is a difference between saying people who are supporting others are more firmly anti-Clinton then saying that the average Democratic will err towards Sanders. Clinton is the sure bet and the known quantity. People who are teetering between the two will likely vote for Clinton.
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TBR
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10/16/2015 7:54:42 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Echoes...but I don't think it's quiet the same anymore...

I can feel sorry for her. She worked the game last time. Finding the top donors. Getting supper delegate. Building endorsements. Its textbook campaigning. Then the cool guy shows up, with a bunch of grass-roots donors and an army of people willing to bang on doors.

Bit of the same this time. She runs the buttoned-down campaign, and a guy in a ruffled suit and messed-up hair gets all the attention (grass-roots).
bsh1
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10/16/2015 7:55:57 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/16/2015 7:54:42 PM, TBR wrote:
Bit of the same this time. She runs the buttoned-down campaign, and a guy in a ruffled suit and messed-up hair gets all the attention (grass-roots).

Similar, but there are important difference that I think will play out against Sanders.
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