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Will Ryan Run for Speaker?

bsh1
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10/20/2015 6:44:11 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Will Paul Ryan run for Speaker of the House?

On the negative side, doing this would be a bad career move for him, since I think most people agree that his goal is to be President. Being Speaker requires making a lot of pragmatic compromises that can build an un-electable record in Presidential politics. Plus, historically speaking, James Polk is the only Speaker ever to also be President, so it doesn't seem like a good stepping stone to the Oval Office anyway.

On the positive side, being Speaker would prevent Ryan from alienating the establishment of his party. As Princess Leia would say, "this is our most desperate hour," and if Ryan abandons the establishment by refusing to run for Speaker, they may never forgive him for jumping ship at such a precarious moment. Clearly, Ryan is no Tea Party candidate, and so if he ever would run for President, he would certainly require the support of the establishment to be successful.

So, it seems like this is a lose-lose situation for Ryan, no matter what he does. Thoughts? What will he do?
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Raisor
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10/20/2015 11:36:23 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
He might be feeling out exactly how much he can get from the freedom caucus. He has an incredible bargaining position, it may be the case that he has terms he is willing to agree to but is perfectly fine turning down the job. I think this is probably the case, in which case the question isn't will Ryan run but will the FC cave?
Raisor
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10/20/2015 11:37:55 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
And more to the above...if Ryan gets the FC to cave that is a huge win. The establishment will love him and he will look like a harass to the general public. I actually think it's a win win.
YYW
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10/21/2015 12:43:02 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/20/2015 6:44:11 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Will Paul Ryan run for Speaker of the House?

Probably. He has to repair his political career after tanking Romney's electoral prospects. However, he has sort of grown up, a bit, since that fateful election.

On the negative side, doing this would be a bad career move for him, since I think most people agree that his goal is to be President.

I don't think his ultimate goal is to be President. I think it once was, but I don't think that's the case now. I don't have any reasoning for that, though, beyond my instinct. I think Ryan is really worried about the future of his party, though. I think he realizes what impact he had on Romney, and why they lost. I think he understands that if the GOP is ever going to be able to exercise meaningful power in the legislature, they have to change courses. This, I think, is a realization that he reached about the same time he stopped talking about, among other things, the writings of Ayn Rand.

However, he is still one of the most cerebral members of the GOP caucus. His speeches are laced with references to the "great minds" of the American revolution. Thomas Paine, specifically, and the Federalist Papers, are clear influences of the way he thinks, and for that I'll give him credit.

As a history buff, it's good stuff.

Being Speaker requires making a lot of pragmatic compromises that can build an un-electable record in Presidential politics. Plus, historically speaking, James Polk is the only Speaker ever to also be President, so it doesn't seem like a good stepping stone to the Oval Office anyway.

It is my view that Ryan will be more willing to make the kinds of compromises that he'll need to now, but at the same time, that he would have been too immature to do when he was even a few years younger. I see in Ryan a man who is truly more concerned with the GOP's future as a party, because his commitment--I think--is more to what he believes the party's ideological platform is, and the values behind that platform, than to goals which are specific to him.

I also think that he doesn't know if he's the "right" guy for the job, so much as he may be realizing that there is simply no one in a better position than he to assume the role. That established, he'll have to wear his "big boy pants" when being the speaker, and he still has his moments if childishness. For example, the list of caveats to his service as speaker, which he announced today, is more or less absurd. (Seriously, either dive in and swim, or stay out of the fvcking pool.) He still thinks, at least on a personal level, that he can have his cake and eat it too, which is just wrong.

Worse, he's announced his weaknesses... and at the end of the day Ryan is a weak man, which is why I'll be happy to see him take the role. He's too unsure of himself, after his soul searching post-2012 failure, and he has yet to get his "political sea legs" back. In reality, he's barely treading water (meaning he's not even on the ship) because he's caught between the life-rafts occupied by the establishment and movement conservatives. Maybe that puts him in the position to bring the two boats together, but in reality, what I think they'll be doing is rowing in the opposite direction, while Ryan is left between them.

On the positive side, being Speaker would prevent Ryan from alienating the establishment of his party.

I disagree. I think it's going to be inevitable that he will unintentionally alienate at least one faction of the party at al times because the factions are, more or less, defining themselves and what they want against each other. This is due in no small part to the manifestly absurd way this primary is transpiring.

As Princess Leia would say, "this is our most desperate hour," and if Ryan abandons the establishment by refusing to run for Speaker, they may never forgive him for jumping ship at such a precarious moment. Clearly, Ryan is no Tea Party candidate, and so if he ever would run for President, he would certainly require the support of the establishment to be successful.

Ryan is a movement conservative (read: a tea bagger) at heart, and that has been overwhelmingly clear since he first started his political career. That is the whole reason Romney chose him to be VP, was as a bone to the movement conservatives. But, I will grant you that Ryan has changed, in several ways, since his catastrophic failure in 2012.

So, it seems like this is a lose-lose situation for Ryan, no matter what he does. Thoughts? What will he do?

Ryan will be utterly ineffective as speaker for political and personal reasons, and for that reason I hope he does it.
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EndarkenedRationalist
Posts: 14,201
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10/21/2015 12:51:37 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
First, Polk was a great president, so I don't know what you're talking about.

Second, the GOP, or at least its incredibly vocal, hideous cousin, aka the Tea Party, was ecstatic that Boehner stepped down because they thought he compromised too much. I don't see Ryan as being too far off from one of them. If he runs, and it modernizes him, great. If it hurts the Tea Party, even better. But neither of those seem particularly likely.
bsh1
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10/21/2015 12:57:10 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/21/2015 12:51:37 AM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
First, Polk was a great president, so I don't know what you're talking about.

Never said he wasn't.
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Raisor
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10/21/2015 3:08:59 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/21/2015 12:57:10 AM, bsh1 wrote:
At 10/21/2015 12:51:37 AM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
First, Polk was a great president, so I don't know what you're talking about.

Never said he wasn't.

Your anti-Polk bias is getting pretty tiresome. I'm just glad somebody finally called you out on it
Raisor
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10/21/2015 3:18:58 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/21/2015 12:51:37 AM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
First, Polk was a great president, so I don't know what you're talking about.

Second, the GOP, or at least its incredibly vocal, hideous cousin, aka the Tea Party, was ecstatic that Boehner stepped down because they thought he compromised too much. I don't see Ryan as being too far off from one of them. If he runs, and it modernizes him, great. If it hurts the Tea Party, even better. But neither of those seem particularly likely.

Freedom caucas doesn't like Ryan...they think he's too moderate a la boehner. Also they want concession on procedural reform. Ryan won't be able to influence the FC once he runs, he needs up front concessions. Either he or they cave, he needs their votes to win the election. I don't see why he would run if he has to cave to their demands- he would be j befitting all of boehners problems from a weaker position than boehner left on- political suicide.

I actually take Ryan's comments on his current job at face value...he doesn't want the time commitment of the speakership and he likes the wonky power role he has now. I think he is negotiating the best position he can get and will evaluate from there.
Vox_Veritas
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10/21/2015 3:23:49 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/20/2015 6:44:11 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Will Paul Ryan run for Speaker of the House?

On the negative side, doing this would be a bad career move for him, since I think most people agree that his goal is to be President. Being Speaker requires making a lot of pragmatic compromises that can build an un-electable record in Presidential politics. Plus, historically speaking, James Polk is the only Speaker ever to also be President, so it doesn't seem like a good stepping stone to the Oval Office anyway.

On the positive side, being Speaker would prevent Ryan from alienating the establishment of his party. As Princess Leia would say, "this is our most desperate hour," and if Ryan abandons the establishment by refusing to run for Speaker, they may never forgive him for jumping ship at such a precarious moment. Clearly, Ryan is no Tea Party candidate, and so if he ever would run for President, he would certainly require the support of the establishment to be successful.

So, it seems like this is a lose-lose situation for Ryan, no matter what he does. Thoughts? What will he do?

The probability of any person, even a U.S. congressman or governor, becoming President of the United States is incredibly slim. Paul Ryan's chances of achieving that office are extremely low.
He should instead focus on that more attainable and still quite prestigious office which is Speaker of the House.
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ColeTrain
Posts: 4,325
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10/21/2015 4:41:23 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/20/2015 6:44:11 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Will Paul Ryan run for Speaker of the House?

On the negative side, doing this would be a bad career move for him, since I think most people agree that his goal is to be President. Being Speaker requires making a lot of pragmatic compromises that can build an un-electable record in Presidential politics. Plus, historically speaking, James Polk is the only Speaker ever to also be President, so it doesn't seem like a good stepping stone to the Oval Office anyway.

On the positive side, being Speaker would prevent Ryan from alienating the establishment of his party. As Princess Leia would say, "this is our most desperate hour," and if Ryan abandons the establishment by refusing to run for Speaker, they may never forgive him for jumping ship at such a precarious moment. Clearly, Ryan is no Tea Party candidate, and so if he ever would run for President, he would certainly require the support of the establishment to be successful.

So, it seems like this is a lose-lose situation for Ryan, no matter what he does. Thoughts? What will he do?

I feel he'll never attain the presidency, so speaker of the House would be the next best option for him.
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TBR
Posts: 9,991
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10/21/2015 3:24:26 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/20/2015 6:44:11 PM, bsh1 wrote:
Will Paul Ryan run for Speaker of the House?

On the negative side, doing this would be a bad career move for him, since I think most people agree that his goal is to be President. Being Speaker requires making a lot of pragmatic compromises that can build an un-electable record in Presidential politics. Plus, historically speaking, James Polk is the only Speaker ever to also be President, so it doesn't seem like a good stepping stone to the Oval Office anyway.

On the positive side, being Speaker would prevent Ryan from alienating the establishment of his party. As Princess Leia would say, "this is our most desperate hour," and if Ryan abandons the establishment by refusing to run for Speaker, they may never forgive him for jumping ship at such a precarious moment. Clearly, Ryan is no Tea Party candidate, and so if he ever would run for President, he would certainly require the support of the establishment to be successful.

So, it seems like this is a lose-lose situation for Ryan, no matter what he does. Thoughts? What will he do?

Well... It is the end of his presidential aspirations, no doubt. I never thought they were good, but this would almost certainly put that to an end. However, speaker is nothing to scoff at. While the man on the street may never know your name, it is a - as Biden would say - "a big f**king deal". He is young. He can be in the top of his party (not just as speaker / as the go-to guy) for a very very long time.

I think it would be a great move for him. And... Well, I hate to admit this... He is sane. He is not MY politics at all, but he is not a rabid lunatic. Could be good for everyone!