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Hillary Back in the Game in NH?

bsh1
Posts: 27,503
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10/24/2015 2:58:52 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
3 of the 5 most recent polls put her ahead in NH, a state she was trailing in by double digits less than a month ago. Thoughts? Comments?

Clinton Ahead

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...

Bernie Ahead

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...
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1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,098
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10/24/2015 7:18:06 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Neither of the ones Bernie are ahead in are negated by the margin of error, but Bernie is within the margin of error on two of the ones where Hillary is ahead. I think that's good to note - but yes, she's in the game, but I don't think she was ever "out".
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bsh1
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10/24/2015 7:21:50 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/24/2015 7:18:06 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
Neither of the ones Bernie are ahead in are negated by the margin of error, but Bernie is within the margin of error on two of the ones where Hillary is ahead. I think that's good to note - but yes, she's in the game, but I don't think she was ever "out".

It did look like she was "out" when some polls showed her more than 10 points behind.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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TBR
Posts: 9,991
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10/24/2015 7:22:16 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/24/2015 2:58:52 AM, bsh1 wrote:
3 of the 5 most recent polls put her ahead in NH, a state she was trailing in by double digits less than a month ago. Thoughts? Comments?

Clinton Ahead

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...

Bernie Ahead

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...

In the general public eye she has to walk away with these states. If Sanders is within points of her, she has "lost" more than the state.
TBR
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10/24/2015 7:25:00 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
We, people who watch everyday, have to remember that even people vested enough to vote in primaries are not very "up to date" on the intense discussion. They, a good chunk, think it's all a lock for Clinton. Any weakness in that perception makes her job much harder.
TBR
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10/24/2015 7:32:55 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Just one more point. When Sanders entered the race his name recognition was in the single digits. Clinton was ~100%. So, if Sanders does "well" in early states, it is a very bad omen for Clinton.
Wylted
Posts: 21,167
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10/25/2015 10:16:54 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Bernie is going to win New Hanpshire when it's all said and done. It's a very pro freedom state, and he embodies those qualities best.
TBR
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10/25/2015 5:25:36 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/25/2015 10:16:54 AM, Wylted wrote:
Bernie is going to win New Hanpshire when it's all said and done. It's a very pro freedom state, and he embodies those qualities best.

I think he will win NH too. Iowa will be close. If Iowa is close, or Sanders wins it will be a big blow for Clinton.
Wylted
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10/25/2015 9:57:21 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/25/2015 5:25:36 PM, TBR wrote:
At 10/25/2015 10:16:54 AM, Wylted wrote:
Bernie is going to win New Hanpshire when it's all said and done. It's a very pro freedom state, and he embodies those qualities best.

I think he will win NH too. Iowa will be close. If Iowa is close, or Sanders wins it will be a big blow for Clinton.

If she knew anything about blows, Bill would be more faithful.
bsh1
Posts: 27,503
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10/25/2015 10:04:00 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/25/2015 5:25:36 PM, TBR wrote:
At 10/25/2015 10:16:54 AM, Wylted wrote:
Bernie is going to win New Hanpshire when it's all said and done. It's a very pro freedom state, and he embodies those qualities best.

I think he will win NH too. Iowa will be close. If Iowa is close, or Sanders wins it will be a big blow for Clinton.

Yeah, but South Carolina, Nevada, and Florida will probably vote for her. I think she'll make in close in both NH and IA, but will lose at least one of them.
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"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

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TBR
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10/25/2015 11:01:29 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/25/2015 10:04:00 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 10/25/2015 5:25:36 PM, TBR wrote:
At 10/25/2015 10:16:54 AM, Wylted wrote:
Bernie is going to win New Hanpshire when it's all said and done. It's a very pro freedom state, and he embodies those qualities best.

I think he will win NH too. Iowa will be close. If Iowa is close, or Sanders wins it will be a big blow for Clinton.

Yeah, but South Carolina, Nevada, and Florida will probably vote for her. I think she'll make in close in both NH and IA, but will lose at least one of them.

Look. I have said the may may play out like 2008. If Sanders shows strong in early states, then it changes the game. She is strong because of name recognition and electability. Same was true then. If early states bring her down a bit, it will be a battle.

I'm not painting a rosy picture for Sanders. It will be up-hill all the way. She, Clinton, should just not be so sure. Her supporters should be a little less cockie. A "win" in NH or Iowa is not that great for a woman who SHOULD be walking over the competition. Someone has to ask, what is the liberal part of the base saying when (if) they reject her twice?
bsh1
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10/25/2015 11:06:24 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/25/2015 11:01:29 PM, TBR wrote:

I can agree Hillary should not be overconfident.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

Follow the DDOlympics
: http://www.debate.org...

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TBR
Posts: 9,991
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10/25/2015 11:35:54 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/25/2015 11:06:24 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 10/25/2015 11:01:29 PM, TBR wrote:

I can agree Hillary should not be overconfident.

I was at the annual halloween party a friend does. Yea, he is an artist, lives in a old build he bought and turned into a huge studio - yup liberal all the way. Point is, we collectively have more conservative friends, and the conversation was.

1) Sanders.
2) What is wrong inside the GOP.

Seriously, Clinton was barely part of the conversation! Conservatives (of the likes that would hang with a pro-photographer and me) are just embarrassed. The Liberals in the room only want to talk Sanders.