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Trump at New Average High in Polls

bsh1
Posts: 27,503
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10/27/2015 1:19:12 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Trump's polling average is now at 32%, besting his previous score of 31.5%, and marking a comeback since his slide down to 28% in September/October. In fact, all 4 of the most recent polls show Trump polling at or above 31%, with his best result being 40%. Additionally, 5 of the last 7 polls show him at or above 31%. [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

Thoughts?
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Greyparrot
Posts: 14,230
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10/27/2015 12:32:09 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/27/2015 1:19:12 AM, bsh1 wrote:
Trump's polling average is now at 32%, besting his previous score of 31.5%, and marking a comeback since his slide down to 28% in September/October. In fact, all 4 of the most recent polls show Trump polling at or above 31%, with his best result being 40%. Additionally, 5 of the last 7 polls show him at or above 31%. [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

Thoughts?

It's Joe Biden's fault.
wrichcirw
Posts: 11,196
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10/27/2015 12:55:36 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/27/2015 1:19:12 AM, bsh1 wrote:
Trump's polling average is now at 32%, besting his previous score of 31.5%, and marking a comeback since his slide down to 28% in September/October. In fact, all 4 of the most recent polls show Trump polling at or above 31%, with his best result being 40%. Additionally, 5 of the last 7 polls show him at or above 31%. [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...]

Thoughts?

If he wins the GOP nomination he will win in 2016. He's made enough overtures to the progressive camp that he will be able to chip into Democratic solidarity. Hillary on the other hand has demonized the GOP to the same extent that the GOP has demonized her. If it's Clinton vs Trump, it will be close, but Trump will win in the end.

He didn't enter this race to lose, and he's found a winning calculus that has defied just about any political convention. The GOP base has essentially given him a free pass, and elections are about votes, not some high-minded sense of civility or decency. He also has more on the line than other candidates...his brand and persona are built upon the image of winning. Other candidates like Sanders for example do not have that kind of image associated with them. If he loses, more than likely his business empire will feel acute, potentially unrecoverable pain. I'm sure he's aware of this, and I'm sure it will make him do whatever it takes to win, no matter how unpalatable it may be.
At 8/9/2013 9:41:24 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
If you are civil with me, I will be civil to you. If you decide to bring unreasonable animosity to bear in a reasonable discussion, then what would you expect other than to get flustered?
1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,098
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10/27/2015 6:52:10 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
To address what Wrich said, it doesn't matter how much he tries to pull it off. If there isn't enough people to support him in the general, he won't win.
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And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

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TBR
Posts: 9,991
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10/27/2015 7:34:03 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/27/2015 6:52:10 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
To address what Wrich said, it doesn't matter how much he tries to pull it off. If there isn't enough people to support him in the general, he won't win.

I agree. The base can love him, but translating that to broad support is virtually unthinkable to me.
Balacafa
Posts: 166
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10/27/2015 7:35:50 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/27/2015 7:34:03 PM, TBR wrote:
At 10/27/2015 6:52:10 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
To address what Wrich said, it doesn't matter how much he tries to pull it off. If there isn't enough people to support him in the general, he won't win.

I agree. The base can love him, but translating that to broad support is virtually unthinkable to me.

Agreed.
wrichcirw
Posts: 11,196
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10/28/2015 12:12:54 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/27/2015 6:52:10 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
To address what Wrich said, it doesn't matter how much he tries to pull it off. If there isn't enough people to support him in the general, he won't win.

He has the GOP in the bag. That is enough people to bring it within a hair of the Democrats. The GOP will not vote for Hillary Clinton.
At 8/9/2013 9:41:24 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
If you are civil with me, I will be civil to you. If you decide to bring unreasonable animosity to bear in a reasonable discussion, then what would you expect other than to get flustered?
1harderthanyouthink
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10/28/2015 12:14:35 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/28/2015 12:12:54 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 10/27/2015 6:52:10 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
To address what Wrich said, it doesn't matter how much he tries to pull it off. If there isn't enough people to support him in the general, he won't win.

He has the GOP in the bag. That is enough people to bring it within a hair of the Democrats. The GOP will not vote for Hillary Clinton.

He has 30% of the GOP. He fails to get the loyalty of the sane, and I don't know when the GOP started voting for Dems anyway.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

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wrichcirw
Posts: 11,196
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10/28/2015 12:14:51 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Also, keep in mind that there are many angry people in the Democratic party too. All those Sanders supporters sound eerily like Trump supporters at times. A lot of those people who think "Enough is Enough!" aren't going to settle for an establishment candidate from either party.
At 8/9/2013 9:41:24 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
If you are civil with me, I will be civil to you. If you decide to bring unreasonable animosity to bear in a reasonable discussion, then what would you expect other than to get flustered?
wrichcirw
Posts: 11,196
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10/28/2015 12:16:23 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/28/2015 12:14:35 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 10/28/2015 12:12:54 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 10/27/2015 6:52:10 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
To address what Wrich said, it doesn't matter how much he tries to pull it off. If there isn't enough people to support him in the general, he won't win.

He has the GOP in the bag. That is enough people to bring it within a hair of the Democrats. The GOP will not vote for Hillary Clinton.

He has 30% of the GOP.

It will be 100% of the GOP by the time he gets the nomination. If there's anything the GOP prizes, it's party loyalty.

He fails to get the loyalty of the sane,

Not a lot of that this electoral cycle on either side of the aisle.

and I don't know when the GOP started voting for Dems anyway.

They didn't, lol.
At 8/9/2013 9:41:24 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
If you are civil with me, I will be civil to you. If you decide to bring unreasonable animosity to bear in a reasonable discussion, then what would you expect other than to get flustered?
wrichcirw
Posts: 11,196
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10/28/2015 1:17:48 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/27/2015 7:34:03 PM, TBR wrote:
At 10/27/2015 6:52:10 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
To address what Wrich said, it doesn't matter how much he tries to pull it off. If there isn't enough people to support him in the general, he won't win.

I agree. The base can love him, but translating that to broad support is virtually unthinkable to me.

What part of Trump's campaign were you able to imagine 6 months ago?

Just about everything Trump has done has been "unthinkable". He has broken nearly every unwritten rule in politics, and every time he is condemned for it, his poll numbers soar.

He's tearing it all down. It remains to be seen if he will succeed (although IMHO it's harder to imagine him failing), and if he does, if he will be able to build something better in its place.
At 8/9/2013 9:41:24 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
If you are civil with me, I will be civil to you. If you decide to bring unreasonable animosity to bear in a reasonable discussion, then what would you expect other than to get flustered?
thett3
Posts: 14,334
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10/28/2015 1:45:31 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/28/2015 1:17:48 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 10/27/2015 7:34:03 PM, TBR wrote:
At 10/27/2015 6:52:10 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
To address what Wrich said, it doesn't matter how much he tries to pull it off. If there isn't enough people to support him in the general, he won't win.

I agree. The base can love him, but translating that to broad support is virtually unthinkable to me.

What part of Trump's campaign were you able to imagine 6 months ago?

Just about everything Trump has done has been "unthinkable". He has broken nearly every unwritten rule in politics, and every time he is condemned for it, his poll numbers soar.

He's tearing it all down. It remains to be seen if he will succeed (although IMHO it's harder to imagine him failing), and if he does, if he will be able to build something better in its place.

The thing that really drove it home for me is that he's been on the top of the polls longer than there are days left until the voting begins.

The establishment has not totally panicked--yet. If Trump survives their inevitable media blitz, I think he will be unstoppable
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TBR
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10/28/2015 2:57:14 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/28/2015 1:45:31 AM, thett3 wrote:
At 10/28/2015 1:17:48 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 10/27/2015 7:34:03 PM, TBR wrote:
At 10/27/2015 6:52:10 PM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
To address what Wrich said, it doesn't matter how much he tries to pull it off. If there isn't enough people to support him in the general, he won't win.

I agree. The base can love him, but translating that to broad support is virtually unthinkable to me.

What part of Trump's campaign were you able to imagine 6 months ago?

Just about everything Trump has done has been "unthinkable". He has broken nearly every unwritten rule in politics, and every time he is condemned for it, his poll numbers soar.

He's tearing it all down. It remains to be seen if he will succeed (although IMHO it's harder to imagine him failing), and if he does, if he will be able to build something better in its place.

The thing that really drove it home for me is that he's been on the top of the polls longer than there are days left until the voting begins.

The establishment has not totally panicked--yet. If Trump survives their inevitable media blitz, I think he will be unstoppable

All I will say to this is - remember Howard Dean
wrichcirw
Posts: 11,196
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10/28/2015 4:34:24 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/28/2015 2:57:14 AM, TBR wrote:
At 10/28/2015 1:45:31 AM, thett3 wrote:
At 10/28/2015 1:17:48 AM, wrichcirw wrote:

All I will say to this is - remember Howard Dean

rofl...remember what brought down Howard Dean. Trump has done things that would make (and probably have made) Dean blush.

Trump is immune to the rules of political convention because he does not require funding from the political establishment. Money talks, and Trump has billions. Furthermore, he's a ratings magnet. That's why entities like Fox news try so hard to use kid gloves on him and still can't resist the allure of the gigantic ratings that come with Trump coverage.
At 8/9/2013 9:41:24 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
If you are civil with me, I will be civil to you. If you decide to bring unreasonable animosity to bear in a reasonable discussion, then what would you expect other than to get flustered?
TBR
Posts: 9,991
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10/28/2015 4:36:47 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/28/2015 4:34:24 PM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 10/28/2015 2:57:14 AM, TBR wrote:
At 10/28/2015 1:45:31 AM, thett3 wrote:
At 10/28/2015 1:17:48 AM, wrichcirw wrote:

All I will say to this is - remember Howard Dean

rofl...remember what brought down Howard Dean. Trump has done things that would make (and probably have made) Dean blush.

Trump is immune to the rules of political convention because he does not require funding from the political establishment. Money talks, and Trump has billions. Furthermore, he's a ratings magnet. That's why entities like Fox news try so hard to use kid gloves on him and still can't resist the allure of the gigantic ratings that come with Trump coverage.

One "problem" for Trump can bring the tumble. That is the lessen.
wrichcirw
Posts: 11,196
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10/28/2015 4:39:37 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/28/2015 4:36:47 PM, TBR wrote:
At 10/28/2015 4:34:24 PM, wrichcirw wrote:
At 10/28/2015 2:57:14 AM, TBR wrote:
At 10/28/2015 1:45:31 AM, thett3 wrote:
At 10/28/2015 1:17:48 AM, wrichcirw wrote:

All I will say to this is - remember Howard Dean

rofl...remember what brought down Howard Dean. Trump has done things that would make (and probably have made) Dean blush.

Trump is immune to the rules of political convention because he does not require funding from the political establishment. Money talks, and Trump has billions. Furthermore, he's a ratings magnet. That's why entities like Fox news try so hard to use kid gloves on him and still can't resist the allure of the gigantic ratings that come with Trump coverage.

One "problem" for Trump can bring the tumble. That is the lessen.

lol...have you been watching Trump coverage? Trump has created more "problems" than people knew existed. Trump IS the problem. The rest of the political establishment is "tumbling".

Do you think Trump is not well-connected? Do you think if push came to shove and entities like the Koch brothers declared an all out media war against Trump with their war chest, that Trump would not rally his connections to his side? I mean, he's already got a sterling endorsement from billionaire Carl Icahn. There are more than likely other Wall Street moguls in the woodwork aching to support him, financially if necessary.
At 8/9/2013 9:41:24 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
If you are civil with me, I will be civil to you. If you decide to bring unreasonable animosity to bear in a reasonable discussion, then what would you expect other than to get flustered?
wrichcirw
Posts: 11,196
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10/28/2015 4:48:24 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/28/2015 4:36:47 PM, TBR wrote:
At 10/28/2015 4:34:24 PM, wrichcirw wrote:

That is the lessen.

I will add here that Trump IS the teacher, and he is schooling the establishment. Once you view his campaign in such a manner, it begins to make more sense.

Trump is a source of a good amount of power, and he is flexing his muscles. This is what a power play looks like.
At 8/9/2013 9:41:24 AM, wrichcirw wrote:
If you are civil with me, I will be civil to you. If you decide to bring unreasonable animosity to bear in a reasonable discussion, then what would you expect other than to get flustered?
bsh1
Posts: 27,503
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10/28/2015 8:34:59 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Trumps' average has increased even more, to 32.5%, roughly 11 points above Carson.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com...
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

Follow the DDOlympics
: http://www.debate.org...

Open Debate Topics Project: http://www.debate.org...