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Does Sanders bern Hillary?

EndarkenedRationalist
Posts: 14,201
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10/28/2015 11:46:02 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
In terms of the Democratic race for the nomination, most people believe that Hillary is certain to win. I won't go on and on about how this traps Sanders in the same cycle of self-fulfilling prophecies like an American third party. Instead I want to look at a few other things.

First, let's look at general election predictions. Trump will never be the nominee, but for a second, let's assume he is. Most data indicates Clinton will trump Trump in a general election. CNN has Clinton up by 5. NBC and the Wall Street Journal have Clinton up by 10. ABC and the Washington Post have her up by 3. Only Fox News has Trump up 5. Using those same sources in that same order (CNN, NBC/WSJ, ABC/WP, and Fox), let's look at Clinton's numbers versus a few other Republican candidates.

Clinton v Bush: Bush by 2, Clinton by 1, no data, and Bush by 4.

Clinton v Carson: Carson by 1, Carson by 1, no data, and Carson by 11 (WTF Fox?)

Clinton v Rubio: no data, Clinton by 6, no data, and Rubio by 2 (RealClearPolitics puts Clinton ahead by 1.3).

None of these numbers, except a Clinton/Trump or Clinton/Rubio mashup seem favorable for the Democrats. And yet Clinton is their leading player. How can this be? Well, before moving onto that, let's see how Sanders fares in those same matchups. Remember the order is CNN, NBC/WSJ, ABC/WP, and Fox.

Sanders v Trump: Sanders by 9, Sanders by 16, no data, and no data (RealClearPolitics has Sanders up by 5.2).

Clinton v Trump: Clinton by 5, Clinton by 10, Clinton by 3, and Trump by 5.

I put these two side by side because it's interesting that Sanders trumps Trump by margins far larger than Clinton does even though Clinton is ahead of Sanders in the polls. And this is hardly an isolated occurrence. While Bush holds a 1.6 RCP average over Clinton, he has only a 0.6 average over Sanders - and in Sanders' case, most of the polling data pitting him against Bush is not in.

In effect, the data indicates that Sanders makes a more competitive race against Bush and a more certain president against Trump. In many respects, Sanders appears to be a more competitive candidate in a general election, even though he's technically losing to Clinton in the polls right now. Doesn't that seem strange?

I'd like to also examine what Democrats need in order to keep the White House in 2016: swing states. Despite her lead, Clinton doesn't hold up well in these crucial battlegrounds.

In Colorado, voters say 62-34 percent that Clinton is dishonest and untrustworthy, 52-46 percent that she has strong leadership qualities, and, perhaps most importantly, 57-39 percent that she does not care about them, their needs, or their problems.

Before I provide the data on some other swing states, I want to stress that whether these beliefs regarding Clinton are true or not is irrelevant. What matters is what the voters perceive.

In Iowa, 59-33 percent of voters say Clinton is dishonest and untrustworthy, 52-43 percent say she has strong leadership qualities, and 55-39 percent say she does not care about them, their needs, or their problems.

In Virginia, those numbers are 55-39 percent, 54-42 percent, and 50-45 percent.

In Florida, Clinton has a negative 37-55 percent favorability rating, and 64-32 percent of voters again say she is dishonest and untrustworthy.

In Ohio, she has a negative 36-54 percent favorability, and 60-34 percent of voters say she is dishonest and untrustworthy.

In Pennsylvania, those numbers are negative 38-55 percent favorability and 63-32 against her trustworthiness.

In fact, the Huffington Post has negative favorability ratings for Clinton in 9 out of 10 national polls.

This mean that a total of 95 electoral votes could be denied to Clinton simply due to how she is perceived. Although she is the leading Democratic candidate in these states, these statistics must be remembered as part of the narrative.

In late September, a poll of Democratic primary voters saw Clinton leading Sanders 42-35. This is a critical difference from what those polls showed back in July, where Clinton led 59-25. Sanders is definitely closing the gap. One NBC poll has Sanders at 33%, and 3 other national polls have him at 29%. And Sanders has managed all of this without super PACs. By the end of September, Clinton had held 58 fundraising events to Sanders' 7.

Many of the polls proclaiming Clinton's inevitable win in Iowa make the mistake of attributing all of Biden's votes to her. But this is not necessarily the case. The New York Times argued that Biden's voters place great emphasis on honesty and trust, two qualities that the majority of Americans (57% according to one poll) believe Clinton lacks.

Furthermore, Clinton's own base of support is tepid. According to CBS News, 27% of Democrats support her with reservations, and another 11% would only support her because she was the nominee (partisanship). This means that 38% (plus or minus the 3% margin of error) of Democrats support Clinton only halfheartedly and could switch over to Sanders.

Americans are not great about voting on what they should - policy, etc. They vote frequently on what Newsweek once called the "congenial factor;" in other words, how much they liked the candidate. Reagan was 20% more likable than Mondale in 1984. Bush beat Dukakis and lost to Clinton in part because of this congenial factor. After the 17 October, 2000 debate, voters rated Bush more likable 60-30 and did the same with George W Bush over Kerry (52-41) in 2004. What the data indicates is that the candidate who won the debates did not always win the election, but the candidate who was the most congenial almost always did.

Where Trump and Clinton require name recognition and billions upon billions of dollars to compete, Bernie Sanders manages with grass roots organization and fundraising. This is a man who went from less than 1% in 2014 to approximately 30% now. The Sanders campaign has momentum. It can, and I certainly hope it does, continue onward.

Tl;dr Sanders 2016!
daytonanerd
Posts: 6,769
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11/16/2015 1:14:26 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 10/29/2015 7:54:01 PM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
Bump

Bernie pulled off some pretty serious berns against Clinton. 1st degree, I'd say.
#FeeltheFreezerBern
EndarkenedRationalist
Posts: 14,201
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11/16/2015 1:25:27 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 11/16/2015 1:14:26 AM, daytonanerd wrote:
At 10/29/2015 7:54:01 PM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
Bump

Bernie pulled off some pretty serious berns against Clinton. 1st degree, I'd say.

You bumped this harder than the Titanic bumped the iceberg. Thank you. :-D