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Can the Kim regime survive the next decade?

UtherPenguin
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11/11/2015 2:48:55 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
An interesting thing to note about North Korea is that it's regime has outlived nearly all of the other Cold War-rooted conflicts. East Germany eventually merged with West, North Vietnam eventually merged with the South, and South Yemen eventually reunited with the North.

East Germany's economy comparatively was far more stable and less stagnant than North Korea's, yet that didn't stop the Berlin wall from collapsing.

Also comparatively, East Germany was far more self sufficient than North Korea today. The DPRK takes about 90% of it's energy exports from China, along side the majority of food for the military. With numbers like that, North Korea is growing in it's economic dependency on China. However, this fails to stop the gradually declining relationship between the two countries.

International sanctions on North Korea following news of nuclear proliferation has led China to follow in on the economic pressure.

Relationships since before have been gradually declining. Especially since the fall of the Soviet Bloc, and the end of one of NK's closer allies.

North Korea is economically incapable of withstanding a Chinese withdrawal from trade, as mentioned previously it would mean the end of 90% of North Korea's energy imports. The land is too heavily rocked by drought and famine for any effective self sufficiency.

Not to mention the growth of the "Royal Court economy" since the appointment of Kim Jong Un as leader. The Royal Court economy is essentially, funds taken away from the state economy in order to pay for "gift politics", a form of lavish bribery used in order to keep government officials loyal and in check.

International sanctions also do not help in this situation. North Korea would then need to whether a) look towards re-establishing relations with Russia, a traditional ally during the Cold War, or b) make economic reforms similar to China in the 70's.

Alliance with Russia is unlikely, as they lack much interests in the region aside from their ties to China. China needed to keep North Korea alive in order to create a sufficient buffer zone between them, and Western-allied countries like South Korea and Japan. However, Russia lacks the need for buffer zones in the region.

The second option, economic reform, is also unlikely, The opening of borders to trade would lead to more information leaking into North Korea, citizens there no little to nothing about life in other countries, economic reforms would naturally lead to that information coming in. Knowledge of disparate living standards between the West and North Korea to the general populace would hugely undermine the current regime. To the North Korean government, open borders is simply out of the equation.

Without Chinese aid, the North Korean government and economy would collapse under it's own weight. It would be unsure if Russian aid of that scale is possible, neither is it certain that Russia would step in if China stepped out. Any other option would lead to an inevitable collapse of the regime.

If an end to Chinese aid occurs, North Korea would soon follow. If Chinese-North Korean relations do reach that low. It would be interesting to look at the possible outcomes that a North Korean collapse would have on the surrounding region. Maybe I'll make another thread on that if I weren't so lazy :/

The question would then come, could the current North Korean regime survive the next ten years?
"Change your sig."
~YYW
beng100
Posts: 1,055
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11/11/2015 4:12:38 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 11/11/2015 2:48:55 AM, UtherPenguin wrote:
An interesting thing to note about North Korea is that it's regime has outlived nearly all of the other Cold War-rooted conflicts. East Germany eventually merged with West, North Vietnam eventually merged with the South, and South Yemen eventually reunited with the North.

East Germany's economy comparatively was far more stable and less stagnant than North Korea's, yet that didn't stop the Berlin wall from collapsing.

Also comparatively, East Germany was far more self sufficient than North Korea today. The DPRK takes about 90% of it's energy exports from China, along side the majority of food for the military. With numbers like that, North Korea is growing in it's economic dependency on China. However, this fails to stop the gradually declining relationship between the two countries.

International sanctions on North Korea following news of nuclear proliferation has led China to follow in on the economic pressure.

Relationships since before have been gradually declining. Especially since the fall of the Soviet Bloc, and the end of one of NK's closer allies.

North Korea is economically incapable of withstanding a Chinese withdrawal from trade, as mentioned previously it would mean the end of 90% of North Korea's energy imports. The land is too heavily rocked by drought and famine for any effective self sufficiency.

Not to mention the growth of the "Royal Court economy" since the appointment of Kim Jong Un as leader. The Royal Court economy is essentially, funds taken away from the state economy in order to pay for "gift politics", a form of lavish bribery used in order to keep government officials loyal and in check.

International sanctions also do not help in this situation. North Korea would then need to whether a) look towards re-establishing relations with Russia, a traditional ally during the Cold War, or b) make economic reforms similar to China in the 70's.

Alliance with Russia is unlikely, as they lack much interests in the region aside from their ties to China. China needed to keep North Korea alive in order to create a sufficient buffer zone between them, and Western-allied countries like South Korea and Japan. However, Russia lacks the need for buffer zones in the region.

The second option, economic reform, is also unlikely, The opening of borders to trade would lead to more information leaking into North Korea, citizens there no little to nothing about life in other countries, economic reforms would naturally lead to that information coming in. Knowledge of disparate living standards between the West and North Korea to the general populace would hugely undermine the current regime. To the North Korean government, open borders is simply out of the equation.

Without Chinese aid, the North Korean government and economy would collapse under it's own weight. It would be unsure if Russian aid of that scale is possible, neither is it certain that Russia would step in if China stepped out. Any other option would lead to an inevitable collapse of the regime.

If an end to Chinese aid occurs, North Korea would soon follow. If Chinese-North Korean relations do reach that low. It would be interesting to look at the possible outcomes that a North Korean collapse would have on the surrounding region. Maybe I'll make another thread on that if I weren't so lazy :/

The question would then come, could the current North Korean regime survive the next ten years?

In my view the Chinese will continue to subsidise north Korea mainly just because it does not want to show weakness or retreatism that eventually led to the Soviet unions collapse. Yes its true north Korea collapsing would not harm China economically but would be seen as an ideological victory for capitalism over communism. It may potentially cause an increased movement for full capitalism and democracy by Chinese media and citizens. Therefore unless north Korea further sours relations China will continue to subsidize the communist monarchy. The Kim regime although crazy is surely clever enough to know it can only be so aggressive with Chinese relations. It knows China depends on it politically so feels it has some leeway for aggressive policies hence the current sour relations. Therefore in my view as long as no uprisings occur in north Korea or communism is abolished in China the communist monarchy will survive. My personal prediction is that China will eventually become capitalist but probably not for 20 or 30 years. The fall of the Kim regime is directly linked to the end of communism in China in my view.
UtherPenguin
Posts: 3,674
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11/12/2015 4:23:43 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 11/11/2015 4:12:38 PM, beng100 wrote:
At 11/11/2015 2:48:55 AM, UtherPenguin wrote:
An interesting thing to note about North Korea is that it's regime has outlived nearly all of the other Cold War-rooted conflicts. East Germany eventually merged with West, North Vietnam eventually merged with the South, and South Yemen eventually reunited with the North.

East Germany's economy comparatively was far more stable and less stagnant than North Korea's, yet that didn't stop the Berlin wall from collapsing.

Also comparatively, East Germany was far more self sufficient than North Korea today. The DPRK takes about 90% of it's energy exports from China, along side the majority of food for the military. With numbers like that, North Korea is growing in it's economic dependency on China. However, this fails to stop the gradually declining relationship between the two countries.

International sanctions on North Korea following news of nuclear proliferation has led China to follow in on the economic pressure.

Relationships since before have been gradually declining. Especially since the fall of the Soviet Bloc, and the end of one of NK's closer allies.

North Korea is economically incapable of withstanding a Chinese withdrawal from trade, as mentioned previously it would mean the end of 90% of North Korea's energy imports. The land is too heavily rocked by drought and famine for any effective self sufficiency.

Not to mention the growth of the "Royal Court economy" since the appointment of Kim Jong Un as leader. The Royal Court economy is essentially, funds taken away from the state economy in order to pay for "gift politics", a form of lavish bribery used in order to keep government officials loyal and in check.

International sanctions also do not help in this situation. North Korea would then need to whether a) look towards re-establishing relations with Russia, a traditional ally during the Cold War, or b) make economic reforms similar to China in the 70's.

Alliance with Russia is unlikely, as they lack much interests in the region aside from their ties to China. China needed to keep North Korea alive in order to create a sufficient buffer zone between them, and Western-allied countries like South Korea and Japan. However, Russia lacks the need for buffer zones in the region.

The second option, economic reform, is also unlikely, The opening of borders to trade would lead to more information leaking into North Korea, citizens there no little to nothing about life in other countries, economic reforms would naturally lead to that information coming in. Knowledge of disparate living standards between the West and North Korea to the general populace would hugely undermine the current regime. To the North Korean government, open borders is simply out of the equation.

Without Chinese aid, the North Korean government and economy would collapse under it's own weight. It would be unsure if Russian aid of that scale is possible, neither is it certain that Russia would step in if China stepped out. Any other option would lead to an inevitable collapse of the regime.

If an end to Chinese aid occurs, North Korea would soon follow. If Chinese-North Korean relations do reach that low. It would be interesting to look at the possible outcomes that a North Korean collapse would have on the surrounding region. Maybe I'll make another thread on that if I weren't so lazy :/

The question would then come, could the current North Korean regime survive the next ten years?

In my view the Chinese will continue to subsidise north Korea mainly just because it does not want to show weakness or retreatism that eventually led to the Soviet unions collapse. Yes its true north Korea collapsing would not harm China economically but would be seen as an ideological victory for capitalism over communism. It may potentially cause an increased movement for full capitalism and democracy by Chinese media and citizens. Therefore unless north Korea further sours relations China will continue to subsidize the communist monarchy. The Kim regime although crazy is surely clever enough to know it can only be so aggressive with Chinese relations. It knows China depends on it politically so feels it has some leeway for aggressive policies hence the current sour relations. Therefore in my view as long as no uprisings occur in north Korea or communism is abolished in China the communist monarchy will survive. My personal prediction is that China will eventually become capitalist but probably not for 20 or 30 years. The fall of the Kim regime is directly linked to the end of communism in China in my view.

China is pretty much only Communist in name at this point. They're economy privatized quote a lot since Deng Xiao-ping. Though under a more authoritarian manner than western economies.
"Change your sig."
~YYW
beng100
Posts: 1,055
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11/12/2015 8:19:56 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 11/12/2015 4:23:43 AM, UtherPenguin wrote:
At 11/11/2015 4:12:38 PM, beng100 wrote:
At 11/11/2015 2:48:55 AM, UtherPenguin wrote:
An interesting thing to note about North Korea is that it's regime has outlived nearly all of the other Cold War-rooted conflicts. East Germany eventually merged with West, North Vietnam eventually merged with the South, and South Yemen eventually reunited with the North.

East Germany's economy comparatively was far more stable and less stagnant than North Korea's, yet that didn't stop the Berlin wall from collapsing.

Also comparatively, East Germany was far more self sufficient than North Korea today. The DPRK takes about 90% of it's energy exports from China, along side the majority of food for the military. With numbers like that, North Korea is growing in it's economic dependency on China. However, this fails to stop the gradually declining relationship between the two countries.

International sanctions on North Korea following news of nuclear proliferation has led China to follow in on the economic pressure.

Relationships since before have been gradually declining. Especially since the fall of the Soviet Bloc, and the end of one of NK's closer allies.

North Korea is economically incapable of withstanding a Chinese withdrawal from trade, as mentioned previously it would mean the end of 90% of North Korea's energy imports. The land is too heavily rocked by drought and famine for any effective self sufficiency.

Not to mention the growth of the "Royal Court economy" since the appointment of Kim Jong Un as leader. The Royal Court economy is essentially, funds taken away from the state economy in order to pay for "gift politics", a form of lavish bribery used in order to keep government officials loyal and in check.

International sanctions also do not help in this situation. North Korea would then need to whether a) look towards re-establishing relations with Russia, a traditional ally during the Cold War, or b) make economic reforms similar to China in the 70's.

Alliance with Russia is unlikely, as they lack much interests in the region aside from their ties to China. China needed to keep North Korea alive in order to create a sufficient buffer zone between them, and Western-allied countries like South Korea and Japan. However, Russia lacks the need for buffer zones in the region.

The second option, economic reform, is also unlikely, The opening of borders to trade would lead to more information leaking into North Korea, citizens there no little to nothing about life in other countries, economic reforms would naturally lead to that information coming in. Knowledge of disparate living standards between the West and North Korea to the general populace would hugely undermine the current regime. To the North Korean government, open borders is simply out of the equation.

Without Chinese aid, the North Korean government and economy would collapse under it's own weight. It would be unsure if Russian aid of that scale is possible, neither is it certain that Russia would step in if China stepped out. Any other option would lead to an inevitable collapse of the regime.

If an end to Chinese aid occurs, North Korea would soon follow. If Chinese-North Korean relations do reach that low. It would be interesting to look at the possible outcomes that a North Korean collapse would have on the surrounding region. Maybe I'll make another thread on that if I weren't so lazy :/

The question would then come, could the current North Korean regime survive the next ten years?

In my view the Chinese will continue to subsidise north Korea mainly just because it does not want to show weakness or retreatism that eventually led to the Soviet unions collapse. Yes its true north Korea collapsing would not harm China economically but would be seen as an ideological victory for capitalism over communism. It may potentially cause an increased movement for full capitalism and democracy by Chinese media and citizens. Therefore unless north Korea further sours relations China will continue to subsidize the communist monarchy. The Kim regime although crazy is surely clever enough to know it can only be so aggressive with Chinese relations. It knows China depends on it politically so feels it has some leeway for aggressive policies hence the current sour relations. Therefore in my view as long as no uprisings occur in north Korea or communism is abolished in China the communist monarchy will survive. My personal prediction is that China will eventually become capitalist but probably not for 20 or 30 years. The fall of the Kim regime is directly linked to the end of communism in China in my view.

China is pretty much only Communist in name at this point. They're economy privatized quote a lot since Deng Xiao-ping. Though under a more authoritarian manner than western economies.

Yes i agree it is largely capitalist. The ruling party though is the communist party though and its authoritarian regime benefits from a buffer state on its south eastern border. It's possible the fall of communism in north Korea might trigger the push for democracy in China the communist party fears. Therefore China won't risk the fall of north Korea and will continue subsidizizing it in my opinion.