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2016 Taiwan Election

Vox_Veritas
Posts: 7,072
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11/20/2015 4:43:20 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
So far the Democratic Progressive Party appears to be leading. It's possible that this party will break the Kuomintang's grip on the Republic of China.
The election is set for January 16, 2016. Two months away currently but still. The DPP candidate is Tsai Ing-wen.

This election has the potential to shatter the status quo between China and Taiwan which has existed for the past several decades. The DPP wants Taiwanese independence from China (that is, they are already independent de facto but de jure their legal status is a little more murky). Xi Jinping has reportedly denounced the DPP.

The question is this; if the DPP wins and goes through on trying to change the status of Taiwan, will China respond by invading the island nation?
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UtherPenguin
Posts: 3,682
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11/20/2015 6:31:47 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
The US/NATO response would be too much of a deterrent to a Mainland-Taiwan invasion, you'll probably see a "mini Cold War" In the region. With heightened tension between Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and Mainland China if the new Independence status is supported.
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BlackFlags
Posts: 904
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11/20/2015 6:35:48 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 11/20/2015 4:43:20 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
So far the Democratic Progressive Party appears to be leading. It's possible that this
The question is this; if the DPP wins and goes through on trying to change the status of Taiwan, will China respond by invading the island nation?

The kuomintang has claimed independence from China for ever, what are you talking about? Only a small percentage of the Taiwan population supports rejoining China.
TN05
Posts: 4,492
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11/20/2015 12:26:28 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 11/20/2015 4:43:20 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
So far the Democratic Progressive Party appears to be leading. It's possible that this party will break the Kuomintang's grip on the Republic of China.
The election is set for January 16, 2016. Two months away currently but still. The DPP candidate is Tsai Ing-wen.

This election has the potential to shatter the status quo between China and Taiwan which has existed for the past several decades. The DPP wants Taiwanese independence from China (that is, they are already independent de facto but de jure their legal status is a little more murky). Xi Jinping has reportedly denounced the DPP.

The question is this; if the DPP wins and goes through on trying to change the status of Taiwan, will China respond by invading the island nation?

No way they invade. The US is obligated to defend Taiwan, and even without us they are heavily fortified. Plus, a ground war would severely damage Taiwan, and while China wants it, they want it intact.
Vox_Veritas
Posts: 7,072
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11/20/2015 1:28:16 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 11/20/2015 6:35:48 AM, BlackFlags wrote:
At 11/20/2015 4:43:20 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
So far the Democratic Progressive Party appears to be leading. It's possible that this
The question is this; if the DPP wins and goes through on trying to change the status of Taiwan, will China respond by invading the island nation?

The kuomintang has claimed independence from China for ever, what are you talking about? Only a small percentage of the Taiwan population supports rejoining China.

Actually, most countries do not recognize the Republic of China as a sovereign state, despite having diplomatic relations with the country.
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

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BlackFlags
Posts: 904
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11/20/2015 8:36:18 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 11/20/2015 1:28:16 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
Actually, most countries do not recognize the Republic of China as a sovereign state, despite having diplomatic relations with the country.

You are not getting it. The Kuomintang claims legitimacy as the rulers of all of China, so why does it matter if another party takes power that also supports independence from China.
Vox_Veritas
Posts: 7,072
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11/20/2015 10:12:04 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 11/20/2015 8:36:18 PM, BlackFlags wrote:
At 11/20/2015 1:28:16 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
Actually, most countries do not recognize the Republic of China as a sovereign state, despite having diplomatic relations with the country.

You are not getting it. The Kuomintang claims legitimacy as the rulers of all of China, so why does it matter if another party takes power that also supports independence from China.

On an international stage Taiwan refrains from addressing itself as though it were a sovereign state. If I'm not mistaken the PRC and the ROC have even agreed on a "neutral" name that Taiwan is to call itself while engaging in international politics.
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

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BlackFlags
Posts: 904
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11/20/2015 10:21:14 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 11/20/2015 10:12:04 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
On an international stage Taiwan refrains from addressing itself as though it were a sovereign state. If I'm not mistaken the PRC and the ROC have even agreed on a "neutral" name that Taiwan is to call itself while engaging in international politics.

They don't engage in international politics. They have only met two times in the last two decades, which is a worst track record than NK/SK relations.

During sporting events, China threatens to veto the games, therefore Taiwan changes its name to the "Government in Taipei"
PetersSmith
Posts: 5,840
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11/20/2015 10:31:23 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 11/20/2015 4:43:20 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
So far the Democratic Progressive Party appears to be leading. It's possible that this party will break the Kuomintang's grip on the Republic of China.
The election is set for January 16, 2016. Two months away currently but still. The DPP candidate is Tsai Ing-wen.

This election has the potential to shatter the status quo between China and Taiwan which has existed for the past several decades. The DPP wants Taiwanese independence from China (that is, they are already independent de facto but de jure their legal status is a little more murky). Xi Jinping has reportedly denounced the DPP.

The question is this; if the DPP wins and goes through on trying to change the status of Taiwan, will China respond by invading the island nation?

Well, from what I'm aware is that a lot of Taiwanese called the Ma"Xi meeting a "betrayal" and chances are the Kuomintang aren't going to do too well in the next election.
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Vox_Veritas
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11/20/2015 10:35:40 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 11/20/2015 10:21:14 PM, BlackFlags wrote:
At 11/20/2015 10:12:04 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
On an international stage Taiwan refrains from addressing itself as though it were a sovereign state. If I'm not mistaken the PRC and the ROC have even agreed on a "neutral" name that Taiwan is to call itself while engaging in international politics.

They don't engage in international politics. They have only met two times in the last two decades, which is a worst track record than NK/SK relations.

What I meant was the name that Taiwan uses when doing any business with other countries.

During sporting events, China threatens to veto the games, therefore Taiwan changes its name to the "Government in Taipei"

In line with the "One China Policy" Taiwan is recognized by every nation which has diplomatic relations with the PRC to be part of the PRC. All diplomatic relations with Taiwan are unofficial, and this is what I'm suggesting Taiwan may try to change if the Democratic Progressive Party takes power.
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

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Vox_Veritas
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11/20/2015 10:37:16 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
The Taiwanese Government might officially declare itself to not be part of the PRC.
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

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BlackFlags
Posts: 904
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11/20/2015 10:39:12 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 11/20/2015 10:35:40 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
In line with the "One China Policy" Taiwan is recognized by every nation which has diplomatic relations with the PRC to be part of the PRC. All diplomatic relations with Taiwan are unofficial, and this is what I'm suggesting Taiwan may try to change if the Democratic Progressive Party takes power.

They are trying to change it now... that is what I have been telling you. In this regards, the Kuomintang and the opposition Democratic Progressive Party are exactly the same.
Vox_Veritas
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11/20/2015 10:41:29 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 11/20/2015 10:39:12 PM, BlackFlags wrote:
At 11/20/2015 10:35:40 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
In line with the "One China Policy" Taiwan is recognized by every nation which has diplomatic relations with the PRC to be part of the PRC. All diplomatic relations with Taiwan are unofficial, and this is what I'm suggesting Taiwan may try to change if the Democratic Progressive Party takes power.

They are trying to change it now... that is what I have been telling you. In this regards, the Kuomintang and the opposition Democratic Progressive Party are exactly the same.

If I'm not mistaken the Kuomintang have refrained in recent decades from declaring Taiwan to be an independent nation in order to sustain the already shaky peace.
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

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beng100
Posts: 1,055
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11/22/2015 9:11:31 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 11/20/2015 4:43:20 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
So far the Democratic Progressive Party appears to be leading. It's possible that this party will break the Kuomintang's grip on the Republic of China.
The election is set for January 16, 2016. Two months away currently but still. The DPP candidate is Tsai Ing-wen.

This election has the potential to shatter the status quo between China and Taiwan which has existed for the past several decades. The DPP wants Taiwanese independence from China (that is, they are already independent de facto but de jure their legal status is a little more murky). Xi Jinping has reportedly denounced the DPP.

The question is this; if the DPP wins and goes through on trying to change the status of Taiwan, will China respond by invading the island nation?

I think the prospect of Chinese invasion is highly unlikely. It would be economic and political suicide and would likely lead to western sanctions and a recession in mainland China. China may make some threats towards Taiwan but it's hard to see it risking an invasion. Ultimately I think the DPP position of independence for Taiwan is logical and if it wins the elections it should be brave enough to push for international recognition of its status. It is obviously also advisable it significantly increases defence spending.
Vox_Veritas
Posts: 7,072
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11/24/2015 9:29:21 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 11/20/2015 12:26:28 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 11/20/2015 4:43:20 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
So far the Democratic Progressive Party appears to be leading. It's possible that this party will break the Kuomintang's grip on the Republic of China.
The election is set for January 16, 2016. Two months away currently but still. The DPP candidate is Tsai Ing-wen.

This election has the potential to shatter the status quo between China and Taiwan which has existed for the past several decades. The DPP wants Taiwanese independence from China (that is, they are already independent de facto but de jure their legal status is a little more murky). Xi Jinping has reportedly denounced the DPP.

The question is this; if the DPP wins and goes through on trying to change the status of Taiwan, will China respond by invading the island nation?

No way they invade. The US is obligated to defend Taiwan, and even without us they are heavily fortified. Plus, a ground war would severely damage Taiwan, and while China wants it, they want it intact.

Not by treaty we aren't. Taiwan would only last one month by itself, and the U.S. would be too concerned about avoiding an escalation to really help Taiwan. The Chinese know this. Taiwan would within a few years recover from the war, though it'd from then on be part of the PRC.
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

The DDO Blog:
https://debatedotorg.wordpress.com...

#drinkthecoffeenotthekoolaid