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The Trump Crisis: What the GOP can do

000ike
Posts: 11,196
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12/9/2015 7:13:15 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
If Trump does not attain the Republican nomination, he has vowed to run as in Independent, essentially siphoning off the party's far right constituency and destroying any prospect of defeating the Democrats in the general election. If this scenario is actualized, then the GOP can make 2016 a 'critical election' with a lasting ideological realignment.

They can try to shed their dependency on this radical constituency by attempting to court moderate liberals. This would require very slight changes in policy and modest concessions, but if they want to survive as a party they're going to have to shift the country's political axis to the left, essentially relegating Trump and his cohort to a status as a politically irrelevant fringe group.

So party leaders have a choice to make. Remain noncompetitive in presidential elections in the foreseeable future....or abandon this onerous outgrowth within their base, and steal votes from the Democrats. They certainly won't win much this election cycle, but this is a choice they have to make right now if they intend to put their house back in order come 2020.

Thoughts?
"A stupid despot may constrain his slaves with iron chains; but a true politician binds them even more strongly with the chain of their own ideas" - Michel Foucault
000ike
Posts: 11,196
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12/9/2015 7:31:59 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
At 12/9/2015 7:16:59 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
Last I heard, he vowed not to do that. He's so crazy lol

more so implied than vowed: http://www.cnn.com...
"A stupid despot may constrain his slaves with iron chains; but a true politician binds them even more strongly with the chain of their own ideas" - Michel Foucault
Wylted
Posts: 21,167
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12/9/2015 7:42:32 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
I saw a study about 13 years ago, that stated that a third party candidate could win if the embraced a strongly anti immigration platform. I'm not sure if that still holds true.

Trump will not run as a third party if he loses the nomination fair and square. He'll be fine. If he wins the nomination and Bernie Sander's wins, I could see a moderate Republican or Democrat running as a third party and winning, or even a strong libertarian candidate like Gary Johnson, winning.
YYW
Posts: 36,305
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12/9/2015 8:16:22 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
At 12/9/2015 7:13:15 PM, 000ike wrote:
If Trump does not attain the Republican nomination, he has vowed to run as in Independent, essentially siphoning off the party's far right constituency and destroying any prospect of defeating the Democrats in the general election. If this scenario is actualized, then the GOP can make 2016 a 'critical election' with a lasting ideological realignment.

They can try to shed their dependency on this radical constituency by attempting to court moderate liberals. This would require very slight changes in policy and modest concessions, but if they want to survive as a party they're going to have to shift the country's political axis to the left, essentially relegating Trump and his cohort to a status as a politically irrelevant fringe group.

So party leaders have a choice to make. Remain noncompetitive in presidential elections in the foreseeable future....or abandon this onerous outgrowth within their base, and steal votes from the Democrats. They certainly won't win much this election cycle, but this is a choice they have to make right now if they intend to put their house back in order come 2020.

Thoughts?

The party is never going to forsake the base. It's just not going to happen.
Tsar of DDO
thett3
Posts: 14,349
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12/9/2015 8:18:35 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
At 12/9/2015 8:16:22 PM, YYW wrote:
At 12/9/2015 7:13:15 PM, 000ike wrote:
If Trump does not attain the Republican nomination, he has vowed to run as in Independent, essentially siphoning off the party's far right constituency and destroying any prospect of defeating the Democrats in the general election. If this scenario is actualized, then the GOP can make 2016 a 'critical election' with a lasting ideological realignment.

They can try to shed their dependency on this radical constituency by attempting to court moderate liberals. This would require very slight changes in policy and modest concessions, but if they want to survive as a party they're going to have to shift the country's political axis to the left, essentially relegating Trump and his cohort to a status as a politically irrelevant fringe group.

So party leaders have a choice to make. Remain noncompetitive in presidential elections in the foreseeable future....or abandon this onerous outgrowth within their base, and steal votes from the Democrats. They certainly won't win much this election cycle, but this is a choice they have to make right now if they intend to put their house back in order come 2020.

Thoughts?

The party is never going to forsake the base. It's just not going to happen.

This. The GOP base is not a group of Ayn Rand reading, free market conservatives who smoke a cigar and discuss obscure political issues with their buddies like the establishment pretends it is. The GOP base supports virtually everything Trump has been saying during his entire campaign and has for a long time.
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
000ike
Posts: 11,196
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12/9/2015 8:37:11 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
At 12/9/2015 8:18:35 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 12/9/2015 8:16:22 PM, YYW wrote:
At 12/9/2015 7:13:15 PM, 000ike wrote:
If Trump does not attain the Republican nomination, he has vowed to run as in Independent, essentially siphoning off the party's far right constituency and destroying any prospect of defeating the Democrats in the general election. If this scenario is actualized, then the GOP can make 2016 a 'critical election' with a lasting ideological realignment.

They can try to shed their dependency on this radical constituency by attempting to court moderate liberals. This would require very slight changes in policy and modest concessions, but if they want to survive as a party they're going to have to shift the country's political axis to the left, essentially relegating Trump and his cohort to a status as a politically irrelevant fringe group.

So party leaders have a choice to make. Remain noncompetitive in presidential elections in the foreseeable future....or abandon this onerous outgrowth within their base, and steal votes from the Democrats. They certainly won't win much this election cycle, but this is a choice they have to make right now if they intend to put their house back in order come 2020.

Thoughts?

The party is never going to forsake the base. It's just not going to happen.

This. The GOP base is not a group of Ayn Rand reading, free market conservatives who smoke a cigar and discuss obscure political issues with their buddies like the establishment pretends it is. The GOP base supports virtually everything Trump has been saying during his entire campaign and has for a long time.

Then why does Trump have only 33 or so percent? If what you say is true, then he should have a mandate in the party by now, since no one else is saying what he's saying,...and especially not in the way he's saying it.
"A stupid despot may constrain his slaves with iron chains; but a true politician binds them even more strongly with the chain of their own ideas" - Michel Foucault
thett3
Posts: 14,349
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12/9/2015 8:47:37 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
At 12/9/2015 8:37:11 PM, 000ike wrote:
At 12/9/2015 8:18:35 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 12/9/2015 8:16:22 PM, YYW wrote:
At 12/9/2015 7:13:15 PM, 000ike wrote:
If Trump does not attain the Republican nomination, he has vowed to run as in Independent, essentially siphoning off the party's far right constituency and destroying any prospect of defeating the Democrats in the general election. If this scenario is actualized, then the GOP can make 2016 a 'critical election' with a lasting ideological realignment.

They can try to shed their dependency on this radical constituency by attempting to court moderate liberals. This would require very slight changes in policy and modest concessions, but if they want to survive as a party they're going to have to shift the country's political axis to the left, essentially relegating Trump and his cohort to a status as a politically irrelevant fringe group.

So party leaders have a choice to make. Remain noncompetitive in presidential elections in the foreseeable future....or abandon this onerous outgrowth within their base, and steal votes from the Democrats. They certainly won't win much this election cycle, but this is a choice they have to make right now if they intend to put their house back in order come 2020.

Thoughts?

The party is never going to forsake the base. It's just not going to happen.

This. The GOP base is not a group of Ayn Rand reading, free market conservatives who smoke a cigar and discuss obscure political issues with their buddies like the establishment pretends it is. The GOP base supports virtually everything Trump has been saying during his entire campaign and has for a long time.

Then why does Trump have only 33 or so percent? If what you say is true, then he should have a mandate in the party by now, since no one else is saying what he's saying,...and especially not in the way he's saying it.

33% in a field of over a dozen basically is a mandate, his numbers are typically something around double what his nearest opponent gets and his numbers are only going to rise after he forced his opponents to shill for Islamic immigration which the base hates. In second place is Cruz, who is Trump lite. Trump gets serious support as people's second choice in most surveys and in most surveys where he is compared head to head with any other GOP candidate he comes out on top. Almost all of the controversial stuff Trump has been saying is backed by the GOP voters when put to the polls. The "pop" root in the term "populist" is important--Trump actually isn't that wrong when he talks about the silent majority.
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
000ike
Posts: 11,196
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12/9/2015 8:52:59 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
At 12/9/2015 8:47:37 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 12/9/2015 8:37:11 PM, 000ike wrote:
At 12/9/2015 8:18:35 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 12/9/2015 8:16:22 PM, YYW wrote:
At 12/9/2015 7:13:15 PM, 000ike wrote:
If Trump does not attain the Republican nomination, he has vowed to run as in Independent, essentially siphoning off the party's far right constituency and destroying any prospect of defeating the Democrats in the general election. If this scenario is actualized, then the GOP can make 2016 a 'critical election' with a lasting ideological realignment.

They can try to shed their dependency on this radical constituency by attempting to court moderate liberals. This would require very slight changes in policy and modest concessions, but if they want to survive as a party they're going to have to shift the country's political axis to the left, essentially relegating Trump and his cohort to a status as a politically irrelevant fringe group.

So party leaders have a choice to make. Remain noncompetitive in presidential elections in the foreseeable future....or abandon this onerous outgrowth within their base, and steal votes from the Democrats. They certainly won't win much this election cycle, but this is a choice they have to make right now if they intend to put their house back in order come 2020.

Thoughts?

The party is never going to forsake the base. It's just not going to happen.

This. The GOP base is not a group of Ayn Rand reading, free market conservatives who smoke a cigar and discuss obscure political issues with their buddies like the establishment pretends it is. The GOP base supports virtually everything Trump has been saying during his entire campaign and has for a long time.

Then why does Trump have only 33 or so percent? If what you say is true, then he should have a mandate in the party by now, since no one else is saying what he's saying,...and especially not in the way he's saying it.

33% in a field of over a dozen basically is a mandate, his numbers are typically something around double what his nearest opponent gets and his numbers are only going to rise after he forced his opponents to shill for Islamic immigration which the base hates. In second place is Cruz, who is Trump lite. Trump gets serious support as people's second choice in most surveys and in most surveys where he is compared head to head with any other GOP candidate he comes out on top. Almost all of the controversial stuff Trump has been saying is backed by the GOP voters when put to the polls. The "pop" root in the term "populist" is important--Trump actually isn't that wrong when he talks about the silent majority.

Sure, but I still find it hard to imagine that if Trump is really giving voice to what these people are feeling, and with such accurate and bold expression, they would flock to him over all the others in solid consensus. What makes a Republican support Cruz over Trump or Carson over Trump or Rubio over Trump? What are these candidates doing or saying that is preferable to what Trump is doing or saying .... 66% of the party does not have Trump as their first choice, no matter how bold and brash he's gotten. Why?

That 66% is the reason I think you're overstating Trump's popularity.
"A stupid despot may constrain his slaves with iron chains; but a true politician binds them even more strongly with the chain of their own ideas" - Michel Foucault
000ike
Posts: 11,196
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12/9/2015 9:03:14 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
wouldn't flock to him over the others*
"A stupid despot may constrain his slaves with iron chains; but a true politician binds them even more strongly with the chain of their own ideas" - Michel Foucault
thett3
Posts: 14,349
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12/9/2015 9:19:57 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
At 12/9/2015 8:52:59 PM, 000ike wrote:
At 12/9/2015 8:47:37 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 12/9/2015 8:37:11 PM, 000ike wrote:
At 12/9/2015 8:18:35 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 12/9/2015 8:16:22 PM, YYW wrote:
At 12/9/2015 7:13:15 PM, 000ike wrote:
If Trump does not attain the Republican nomination, he has vowed to run as in Independent, essentially siphoning off the party's far right constituency and destroying any prospect of defeating the Democrats in the general election. If this scenario is actualized, then the GOP can make 2016 a 'critical election' with a lasting ideological realignment.

They can try to shed their dependency on this radical constituency by attempting to court moderate liberals. This would require very slight changes in policy and modest concessions, but if they want to survive as a party they're going to have to shift the country's political axis to the left, essentially relegating Trump and his cohort to a status as a politically irrelevant fringe group.

So party leaders have a choice to make. Remain noncompetitive in presidential elections in the foreseeable future....or abandon this onerous outgrowth within their base, and steal votes from the Democrats. They certainly won't win much this election cycle, but this is a choice they have to make right now if they intend to put their house back in order come 2020.

Thoughts?

The party is never going to forsake the base. It's just not going to happen.

This. The GOP base is not a group of Ayn Rand reading, free market conservatives who smoke a cigar and discuss obscure political issues with their buddies like the establishment pretends it is. The GOP base supports virtually everything Trump has been saying during his entire campaign and has for a long time.

Then why does Trump have only 33 or so percent? If what you say is true, then he should have a mandate in the party by now, since no one else is saying what he's saying,...and especially not in the way he's saying it.

33% in a field of over a dozen basically is a mandate, his numbers are typically something around double what his nearest opponent gets and his numbers are only going to rise after he forced his opponents to shill for Islamic immigration which the base hates. In second place is Cruz, who is Trump lite. Trump gets serious support as people's second choice in most surveys and in most surveys where he is compared head to head with any other GOP candidate he comes out on top. Almost all of the controversial stuff Trump has been saying is backed by the GOP voters when put to the polls. The "pop" root in the term "populist" is important--Trump actually isn't that wrong when he talks about the silent majority.

Sure, but I still find it hard to imagine that if Trump is really giving voice to what these people are feeling, and with such accurate and bold expression, they would flock to him over all the others in solid consensus. What makes a Republican support Cruz over Trump or Carson over Trump or Rubio over Trump? What are these candidates doing or saying that is preferable to what Trump is doing or saying .... 66% of the party does not have Trump as their first choice, no matter how bold and brash he's gotten. Why?

That 66% is the reason I think you're overstating Trump's popularity.

People support Carson because they want to signal how they are not racist. People like Cruz because he's Trump lite so they think he's more likely to be elected and to govern effectively even though Trump is voicing stronger rhetoric on what people actual believe. People like Rubio because they think he's the most electable and they prioritize winning over anything else.

The only candidate who at this point has a serious chance to mount a challenge against Trump is Cruz. Surveys are beginning to show that not only is Trump viewed as most likely to win the nomination, but also viewed as the most likely to do well in the general. Unless something drastic happens Trump is going to be the GOP nominee.

As for why he *only* has 33% I would object to the premise of the question. Being in the mid-30's as a politicos newcomer in literally the most crowded field in history while also remaining on top of the polls for as long as he has is an incredibly impressive feat which really shows how the establishment has utterly failed to look after their base. If literally any other candidate had that kind of support everyone would be calling the race right now. What's important is that the GOP base supports Trump over any other candidate when polled head to head and that they support him on almost every issue that he brings up. That's what we mean when we talk about how the base is behind Trump
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right