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Why the RNC Cannot Beat Trump

YYW
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12/9/2015 11:18:23 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
I have said it before (long before Trump was popular; months before now, too) that Trump will win the primary. Everyone said I was insane. I have maintained that Trump would maintain the primary. Same response.... I'm insane, of course. Then the polls started to reflect my prediction, to the letter, when Trump did *exactly* what I said he would do. Nope, I'm still insane. And now, we are at the point of inevitability, where he has invoked the wrath of the entire establishment GOP... and now, only now, are people on this site (and generally outside of this site, but that's immaterial) even beginning to understand what I have been saying all along, and predicted, with exacting precision, would happen. But this is not a "I told you so!" treatise. I don't have to do that, because what's going on is just so obvious that even them most profoundly irrational critics cannot ignore what's happening.

(Btw. I have seen reporters and analysts on CNN say, after I wrote things on this site, practically the exact same things I wrote after I said them. I seriously wonder if some of their pundits come on DDO or at least read DDO.)

This is what's happening:

The whole problem right now with the Republican Party is that they have produced a movement, over the course of two generations (maybe three, but at least two), since the 1960s, in response to social change that has "bucked up" (to put it colloquially) against the values and ideas that many evangelical and conservative fundamentalist Christian members of their party have held. However, that demographic has been marginalized, mocked, and disparaged by the Establishment sect of the Republican party for nearly 50 years. There are people who have grown up, lead their lives, and raised kids and sent those kids to college all while being paid lip service to by establishment politicians... and what is changing is that those people have woken up to it.

That process of "waking up" (not to be confused with the movement itself) began really with Newt Gingrich's kamikaze political tactics in the 1990s against Clinton. Then, everyone kind of united around Bush in the early 2000s, but as the Iraq war dragged on, just changed entirely the way that the GOP base thought about the establishment: they no longer trusted what the Establishment said, wanted or did. Guys like Dick Cheney and others (Donald Rumsfeld, Karl Rove, etc.) just added fuel to the fire of rebellion, because of the fact that they all seemed to get "caught" engaged in incredibly troubling activities.

But the fire burned in the 1990s with Clinton, and started burning when the "truth" about the Iraq war started to surface, and just boiled over the top entirely when Obama was elected. The Bush Administration was the beginning of the end, but what happened after that was just the most critical tactical mistake that any political party in this country's history has ever made. They ran Sarah Palin as McCain's VP, and they gave sanction to the Tea Party movement. To kind of understand what the Tea Party movement was, you've got to understand where it came from. These are the same group of people who would have made up the Moral Majority in the 80s, or the Silent Majority under Nixon, or the Forgotten Men under FRD. This group has been trashed by the elites in the GOP (or the DNC, before the party-flop that took place when LBJ scared a lot of white people out of the DNC with such legislation as the Voting Rights Act, and the Civil Rights Act, and similar legislation) for a very, very long time and most of them just rolled with it.

Enter, Barack Obama. The mistake I was talking about earlier was when the Republican's started to define their existence against anything that Obama said, did or stood for. Their party philosophy essentially became "Anything that Obama says, does or stands for, we oppose it, because he's just the worst thing ever." Michelle Bachman (a once figurehead of the movement conservatives) notoriously predicted that Obama would bring about the "biblical end of days." And that resonated with a lot of people.

The party's objective was (and I'm not joking; completely serious here) to "mobilize the base." What "mobilizing the base" meant was, as Obama's anger translator at the White House Correspondent's dinner just perfectly described was "to scare a whole bunch of white people into believing some nonsense." (Note: "Luther" is a fictional character who was at that time speaking in the context of things that FOX news did to advance that network's political goals.) The events that followed were remarkable, by any standard.

First, FOX just totally went off the deep end entirely. This started in about late 2006, and early 2007, and then just got progressively worse. FOX introduced shows like the Glen Beck program, and various others, whose sole purpose and function was to "teach" (it is no coincidence that Beck often made use of a chalk board on his show) the base what to think, and what he did is create a kind of "alternate" reality. Beck wasn't the only one, either. Everyone on FOX was doing it, and FOX is to the RNC what Russia Today is to the Kremlin: their mouthpiece. Newspapers were doing the same thing in a more sophisticated way, like the New York Post, and its regional equivalents. The Wall Street Journal even hopped on the bandwagon. It's just a terribly politically biased paper. Keep in mind that the whole point of all of this was to create the kinds of conditions where an entire population of people were going to be susceptible believing whatever idiotic lies that the Republican politicians who would run in 2012 against Obama would conceivably say... and it was very effective.

Second, was the 2012 primary. This was, without question, the point of no return. I've commented extensively about just how pathetically incompetently structured the entire primary was. Michael Steel (then head of the GOP, who only got the job because he, as a black man, appeared to make the party less racist) was in charge and set in motion a series of candidates who were as off the charts, in terms of their willingness to act like insurgents. The entire primary was a complete farce, with politicians who were nothing less than complete disgraces (except Romney) to the entire process.

But, what I think was going on, and what at least appears to have been going on, is that Romney knew he would not win, so he didn't spend the kind of money that he could have in the election, and the base didn't bother to waste their money on him either. He was just the "inevitable" candidate, and that's all fine and good. But, I think at that point, there were certain members of the GOP establishment who expressly recognized that something had to be done to prevent the Tea Party (then existing iteration of movement conservatism) from getting any stronger, because their strength came at the expense of the Establishment's strength. That's why Romney picked Paul Ryan.

Paul Ryan, at that point in his political career, was probably the single biggest future threat to the GOP that existed in the entire country. He is pretty smart, good looking, highly idealistic, and an outsider who was very popular with the Tea Party for all of those reasons. He was pretty much their "golden boy." It seems weird to think about Ryan in that sense now, because here he is, speaker of the house, and just appearing to be about as establishment as they come. Well, that was because the Establishment recognized that they could make Ryan into a tool for their own purposes, or allow him to go on his way and lead an insurgency against the already insurgent-like Establishment. And the Establishment made the obvious choice: they brought him in.

More to come. I'm out of character space.
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YYW
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12/9/2015 11:34:25 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
So, the GOP brought Ryan in. This is where Romney's inevitable loss (and even if he could have won, Romney's dreadfully incompetent campaign staff, who were pretty much the most disgraceful lot of dullards that has ever ran any campaign ever --even Ross Perot has a better campaign staff) became useful: Romney was the guy who ran and lost to kill the Tea Party and lay the foundation for 2016, and they picked Ryan to cut off the hydra's head (at least to the extent possible). (Getting rid of people like Rick Santorum, and all the other idiots like him (except Ted Cruz) was easy enough because Santorum's personality is so toxic that no respectable person would even want to invite him into their home, much less vote for the man.)

The "theory" (or at least what I think the theory was) was that this grand and elaborate primary in 2012 was meant to fail, so that everyone would realize that when the party deviated from the Establishment's plan that horrible horrible things happened: like Barack Obama's reelection. Except that's just not what happened at all... what happened is that this group of historically disenfranchised people had started to question the establishment, the party, and the entire notion of institutional politics as a whole because they started to recognize just how bad they have been screwed by it every single election for like the past 40 or 50 years.

But, that doesn't mean that they (the movement conservatives) just "forgot" about their world-views, or even changed them at all. They just didn't like the establishment for a lot of (in reality pretty reasonable) reasons. Enter the 2016 primary.

The Establishment was banking on the idea that Jeb Bush would get elected; that he, being the "inevitable" candidate would be a "return to stability" and that after all this wild and crazy rebellion against the Establishment ha clearly failed (so the establishment thought) that Bush would just rake in the votes because he's W's brother and HW's son. (This is just about the most manifestly idiotic plan that anyone has ever conceived of, but it was clearly the plan.) But, the problem (as is always the case when the Establishment makes ill-founded plans) was the fact that they woefully miscalculated *where the base was* politically.

The reason the Establishment miscalculated is because they're all a bunch of self-righteous, self-important pricks who sit in country clubs and fancy finishing clubs or whatever smoking cigars and drinking scotch (not that smoking cigars and drinking scotch is an inherently bad thing... I love scotch, and cigars are nice too sometimes) and they never even bothered to do the kind of investigation into where the base was (because they thought they knew) before this election in 2016. They "thought" that the alternate reality which had so carefully been constructed for the base was where the base was, but that's just not consistent with reality. (It's no accident that something like 85% of the country, many of whom include the GOP base, for example, are convinced that the war in Iraq was a complete disaster, and had thought that for many years now, even before the conservative media--mostly FOX and idiotic blowhards like Rush Limbaugh--started to suggest it.)

The point illustrated, thus, is that there was a massive disjunction between the base and the establishment in two respects: (a) the establishment had no idea what the base actually thought about the world (and nor, for that matter, did anyone else other than those of us who bothered to talk to them in 2012); and (b) the base just wildly distrusted the establishment. So, it's a mutual distance... pretty much the epitome of what you might call a "divided house."

BUT, there are essentially two people in the party who were smart enough to recognize what was happening: Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. Ben Carson sort of accidentally stumbled into menial popularity, but that quickly faded because he's just so much of a sociopathic liar that people got scared and got the hell away.

The next post will talk about Trump, Cruz, and what they saw that no one else did.
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YYW
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12/9/2015 11:49:54 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
Enter, Ted Cruz and Donald Trump:

It is like not surprising at all that a business man did his homework where the establishment did not; or where an obvious insurgent who was and has been totally isolated in the GOP did the same. These are guys who both needed to know *exactly* where the party was, in order to figure out what to say, so that they could say the right thing and get elected. Cruz has the added advantage of being from Texas which really is one of the best cross-sections of this country that exists throughout our fruited plains. Texas has everything, but that's another rant for another day.

What Trump found out was that the base was pissed at the establishment, and he found out why. So, he figured out (and it wasn't hard to do... I mean, if I can do it than so can anyone else, including Trump) exactly the "kind" of candidate that would be most appealing to those in the party who were either most likely to vote, or whom he could incite to vote: the complete and total anti-Obama.

What you've got to realize is that the fact that the base doesn't trust the establishment doesn't mean that they don't believe what FOX says, or Rush says, or any of the other mouthpieces of the GOP say because they don't recognize those institutions as propaganda platforms. They instead recognize these institutions as "the reflection of their voice." And Trump has just spoon fed that back to them in droves.

Trump essentially made himself into exactly everything that Obama is not. Obama is measured and cerebral; Trump is outrageous and brash. Obama is calm and reserved; Trump is arrogant and outspoken. Obama is not a military-heavy guy; Trump has suggested that he would use the military to do things that not even George W. Bush would have been willing to do. Obama is a self-made black man from Chicago; Trump is an insanely wealthy white guy from New York. Obama speaks softly and calmly; Trump screams and shouts and makes all kinds of outrageous threats against people and things that the base doesn't like. And that's why he's just crushing every single poll.

Now, other Republicans could have done this. What makes Trump popular is his "methods" not "him personally." Like, there is nothing inherent about Trump that makes him the inevitable choice; what makes him the inevitable winner is the fact that he (1) met the base where they are, which (2) is something that no other candidate (with the possible exception of Ted Cruz) was willing to do.

This latest instance of Trump saying that he would 'temporarily ban Muslims from entering the United States until [American leaders] can figure out what the hell is going on' was especially bright because, as thett3 pointed out, Trump forced ***EVERY*** member of the Republican party to defend Islam, RIGHT AFTER the San Bernardino attacks. So, they all look like weak PC b!tches who are just going to roll over to the elites (to the base; whether this is reality has no bearing on anything), and Trump is the only strong-man in the race. (Jeff Zeleny right now is on CNN talking about Trump's strategy, as if he had any fvcking clue why this is working... if there has been anything this primary has taught anyone, it is how incredibly stupid and out of touch all the media in this country are.)

The other driving factor behind Trump's success, which is just the icing on the cake, is the other dimension of his personality as contrasted with the personality of every other politician (except Cruz) in the field: we are at war with ISIS (or will be soon), and Trump is the only politician who even begins to resemble a strong-man in the race. And people are scared of Islamic terrorism, so they're going to vote for him. It's just that simple.
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YYW
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12/10/2015 12:11:16 AM
Posted: 12 months ago
And S.E. Cupp on CNN more or less epitomizes how incredibly stupid so many people in the media are, although she, specifically, is so inept I don't even know how she managed to get through college.
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YYW
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12/10/2015 12:21:57 AM
Posted: 12 months ago
At 12/10/2015 12:11:16 AM, YYW wrote:
And S.E. Cupp on CNN more or less epitomizes how incredibly stupid so many people in the media are, although she, specifically, is so inept I don't even know how she managed to get through college.

Like, she is probably the only person I have ever seen on TV who is more stupid than Michelle Bachman.
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TUF
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12/10/2015 1:15:53 AM
Posted: 12 months ago
I really need to pay more attention to politics and the history around them. The fact that most of this went over my head, to me, is quite sad. It's the one area I struggle in and always dread discussion on. When it comes to social issues, news issues, philosophical argumentation, pop culture shenanigans, law enforcement, and a tirade of other issues, I feel like I can keep up intellectually and hold an opinion. But politics to me is like math, and I have a hard time mentally tuning in to most of what goes on. Because of this, I am completely ignorant and stupid when anyone brings up politics and history round it enough to where I cannot form a solid opinion on most matters confidently enough to state the opinion publicly.

From reading your post though, it seems really well put together. You've definitely got a lot of support for your ideas.
"I've got to go and grab a shirt" ~ Airmax1227
thett3
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12/10/2015 4:20:34 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
At 12/10/2015 12:11:16 AM, YYW wrote:
And S.E. Cupp on CNN more or less epitomizes how incredibly stupid so many people in the media are, although she, specifically, is so inept I don't even know how she managed to get through college.

https://twitter.com...

https://twitter.com...

Our emperor-god approves of this post!
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: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
thett3
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12/10/2015 4:20:54 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
This entire thing was fantastic, YYW. Hopefully I'll get around to posting my thoughts soon
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: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
YYW
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12/10/2015 4:27:30 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
At 12/10/2015 4:20:54 PM, thett3 wrote:
This entire thing was fantastic, YYW. Hopefully I'll get around to posting my thoughts soon

lol cheers
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YYW
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12/10/2015 4:28:35 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
At 12/10/2015 4:20:34 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 12/10/2015 12:11:16 AM, YYW wrote:
And S.E. Cupp on CNN more or less epitomizes how incredibly stupid so many people in the media are, although she, specifically, is so inept I don't even know how she managed to get through college.

https://twitter.com...

https://twitter.com...

Our emperor-god approves of this post!

I agree with the tweet, and I cannot fathom how S.E. Cupp still has a job in the media. Her incompetence knows no bounds.
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YYW
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12/10/2015 4:30:46 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
At 12/10/2015 4:20:54 PM, thett3 wrote:
This entire thing was fantastic, YYW. Hopefully I'll get around to posting my thoughts soon

Oh, and this morning the Washington Post ripped my OP off. I really almost wonder if the Post has finally gotten their sh!t together by reading what I write. They mentioned the Post article on CNN this morning.

(Not, of course, that anything I'm writing is particularly special. It's the kind of thing that anyone with a brain can figure out for themselves... the problem is that the Media are just so vastly incompetent that it's taken them months to figure out what's going on. Some people are just slow, I guess.)
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thett3
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12/10/2015 4:36:01 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
At 12/10/2015 4:30:46 PM, YYW wrote:
At 12/10/2015 4:20:54 PM, thett3 wrote:
This entire thing was fantastic, YYW. Hopefully I'll get around to posting my thoughts soon

Oh, and this morning the Washington Post ripped my OP off. I really almost wonder if the Post has finally gotten their sh!t together by reading what I write. They mentioned the Post article on CNN this morning.

(Not, of course, that anything I'm writing is particularly special. It's the kind of thing that anyone with a brain can figure out for themselves... the problem is that the Media are just so vastly incompetent that it's taken them months to figure out what's going on. Some people are just slow, I guess.)

That almost worries me. The media has been so wrong on everything regarding Trump..if they're starting to say he's unbeatable, that may mean he is definitely beatable.
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"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
YYW
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12/10/2015 4:41:04 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
At 12/10/2015 4:36:01 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 12/10/2015 4:30:46 PM, YYW wrote:
At 12/10/2015 4:20:54 PM, thett3 wrote:
This entire thing was fantastic, YYW. Hopefully I'll get around to posting my thoughts soon

Oh, and this morning the Washington Post ripped my OP off. I really almost wonder if the Post has finally gotten their sh!t together by reading what I write. They mentioned the Post article on CNN this morning.

(Not, of course, that anything I'm writing is particularly special. It's the kind of thing that anyone with a brain can figure out for themselves... the problem is that the Media are just so vastly incompetent that it's taken them months to figure out what's going on. Some people are just slow, I guess.)

That almost worries me. The media has been so wrong on everything regarding Trump..if they're starting to say he's unbeatable, that may mean he is definitely beatable.

This was one article.

Everyone else (e.g. S.E. Cupp and similar idiots) are all maintaining that his downfall is imminent.
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12/10/2015 4:44:06 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
Well-written OP, though it's clear you had a Left-leaning bias in writing this (I.e. conservatives are idiots, all the GOP candidates are sociopathic liars, etc).
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Vox_Veritas
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12/10/2015 4:44:45 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
At 12/10/2015 4:30:46 PM, YYW wrote:
At 12/10/2015 4:20:54 PM, thett3 wrote:
This entire thing was fantastic, YYW. Hopefully I'll get around to posting my thoughts soon

Oh, and this morning the Washington Post ripped my OP off. I really almost wonder if the Post has finally gotten their sh!t together by reading what I write. They mentioned the Post article on CNN this morning.

Link. Now.

(Not, of course, that anything I'm writing is particularly special. It's the kind of thing that anyone with a brain can figure out for themselves... the problem is that the Media are just so vastly incompetent that it's taken them months to figure out what's going on. Some people are just slow, I guess.)
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YYW
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12/10/2015 5:41:05 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
At 12/10/2015 4:44:06 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
Well-written OP, though it's clear you had a Left-leaning bias in writing this (I.e. conservatives are idiots, all the GOP candidates are sociopathic liars, etc).

I didn't say that all the conservatives are idiots. In fact, I said the opposite directly (with respect to Ted Cruz) and indirectly (what Trump is doing is obviously brilliant).

The only sociopathic liar in the race is Ted Cruz.

Please read more carefully.
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YYW
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12/10/2015 5:42:02 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
And in terms of "bias" ...good grief. Facts are not "biased" although commentary, by definition, is. This article included both facts and commentary.
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Vox_Veritas
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12/10/2015 5:44:17 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
At 12/10/2015 5:41:05 PM, YYW wrote:
At 12/10/2015 4:44:06 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
Well-written OP, though it's clear you had a Left-leaning bias in writing this (I.e. conservatives are idiots, all the GOP candidates are sociopathic liars, etc).

I didn't say that all the conservatives are idiots. In fact, I said the opposite directly (with respect to Ted Cruz) and indirectly (what Trump is doing is obviously brilliant).

You stated that the GOP base is literally brainwashed.

The only sociopathic liar in the race is Ted Cruz.

You stated that Ben Carson is one as well and you made unflattering remarks about several other fairly influential figures in the GOP.

Please read more carefully.
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YYW
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12/10/2015 5:47:47 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
At 12/10/2015 5:44:17 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 12/10/2015 5:41:05 PM, YYW wrote:
At 12/10/2015 4:44:06 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
Well-written OP, though it's clear you had a Left-leaning bias in writing this (I.e. conservatives are idiots, all the GOP candidates are sociopathic liars, etc).

I didn't say that all the conservatives are idiots. In fact, I said the opposite directly (with respect to Ted Cruz) and indirectly (what Trump is doing is obviously brilliant).

You stated that the GOP base is literally brainwashed.

No, I did not. There is a difference between being "influenced" and being "brainwashed." once more, read.

The only sociopathic liar in the race is Ted Cruz.

You stated that Ben Carson is one as well and you made unflattering remarks about several other fairly influential figures in the GOP.

In another thread, I said that he was a sociopath, but to say that he is a "liar" would suggest that Carson had has some modest command of the difference between reality and unreality, which I think remains in question.

But beyond that, Caron is pretty much irrelevant at this point.

Please read more carefully.
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Blade-of-Truth
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12/10/2015 6:38:57 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
Good analysis, I generally agree with everything you've said. I have a question though, do you think Trump's methods will work when put up against Hillary rather than the GOP establishment?

Also, do you think this is the end for Paul Ryan? What I mean is, do you see him becoming comfortable in his position and losing any ambition for a white house run himself?
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YYW
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12/10/2015 6:58:58 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
At 12/10/2015 6:38:57 PM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
Good analysis, I generally agree with everything you've said. I have a question though, do you think Trump's methods will work when put up against Hillary rather than the GOP establishment?

Trump is very good at playing mind games (see, e.g. his comment regarding Jeb Bush "low energy). But so is Hillary. I don't know who will come out on top. I really don't, and that concerns me.

Also, do you think this is the end for Paul Ryan?

No. I think he will have a future in the Republican Party in some capacity (though I'm not sure what it is), and I predict his career will likely mostly involve work in the legislative branch, and, maybe, a sweetheart deal when he decides to leave congress from one of the giant companies which owns the Republican party.

What I mean is, do you see him becoming comfortable in his position and losing any ambition for a white house run himself?

Idk. He's a young guy, and he's smart enough to learn from his mistakes (even if he was completely played by Romney).
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YYW
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12/10/2015 6:59:16 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
At 12/10/2015 6:03:27 PM, Romanii wrote:
Great analysis! You should do this professionally haha

haha I should.
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Greyparrot
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12/10/2015 9:15:12 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
At 12/10/2015 6:59:16 PM, YYW wrote:
At 12/10/2015 6:03:27 PM, Romanii wrote:
Great analysis! You should do this professionally haha

haha I should.

Amazing.
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12/10/2015 9:16:30 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
At 12/10/2015 6:58:58 PM, YYW wrote:
At 12/10/2015 6:38:57 PM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
Good analysis, I generally agree with everything you've said. I have a question though, do you think Trump's methods will work when put up against Hillary rather than the GOP establishment?

Trump is very good at playing mind games (see, e.g. his comment regarding Jeb Bush "low energy). But so is Hillary. I don't know who will come out on top. I really don't, and that concerns me.

Hillary is only good at the passive aggressive game. If Trump can somehow bait her out, she will self destruct.
YYW
Posts: 36,286
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12/10/2015 9:17:55 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
At 12/10/2015 9:16:30 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 12/10/2015 6:58:58 PM, YYW wrote:
At 12/10/2015 6:38:57 PM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
Good analysis, I generally agree with everything you've said. I have a question though, do you think Trump's methods will work when put up against Hillary rather than the GOP establishment?

Trump is very good at playing mind games (see, e.g. his comment regarding Jeb Bush "low energy). But so is Hillary. I don't know who will come out on top. I really don't, and that concerns me.

Hillary is only good at the passive aggressive game.

I don't know that I would agree with that, based on her very successful time at the State Department.

If Trump can somehow bait her out, she will self destruct.

I think Clinton is smart enough to know when she's being baited, and act, rather than react (which distinguishes her from basically everyone else running for president right now other than Sanders and Cruz).
Tsar of DDO
Greyparrot
Posts: 14,268
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12/10/2015 9:20:53 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
At 12/10/2015 9:17:55 PM, YYW wrote:
At 12/10/2015 9:16:30 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 12/10/2015 6:58:58 PM, YYW wrote:
At 12/10/2015 6:38:57 PM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
Good analysis, I generally agree with everything you've said. I have a question though, do you think Trump's methods will work when put up against Hillary rather than the GOP establishment?

Trump is very good at playing mind games (see, e.g. his comment regarding Jeb Bush "low energy). But so is Hillary. I don't know who will come out on top. I really don't, and that concerns me.

Hillary is only good at the passive aggressive game.

I don't know that I would agree with that, based on her very successful time at the State Department.

If Trump can somehow bait her out, she will self destruct.

I think Clinton is smart enough to know when she's being baited, and act, rather than react (which distinguishes her from basically everyone else running for president right now other than Sanders and Cruz).

They have 2 completely different styles, but they both are very good at spotting weaknesses and know when others are doing the same to them. It will be an incredibly close match.
000ike
Posts: 11,196
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12/10/2015 9:30:55 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
At 12/10/2015 9:16:30 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 12/10/2015 6:58:58 PM, YYW wrote:
At 12/10/2015 6:38:57 PM, Blade-of-Truth wrote:
Good analysis, I generally agree with everything you've said. I have a question though, do you think Trump's methods will work when put up against Hillary rather than the GOP establishment?

Trump is very good at playing mind games (see, e.g. his comment regarding Jeb Bush "low energy). But so is Hillary. I don't know who will come out on top. I really don't, and that concerns me.

Hillary is only good at the passive aggressive game. If Trump can somehow bait her out, she will self destruct.

I can't help but be skeptical when people portray Trump as an intelligent tactician. Is this not just a continuation of the same feckless and incendiary campaign style he used (unsuccessfully) in 2012 with the birther controversy? The things he says come naturally to him, and his appeal in this instance is, in all likelihood, coincident. And 'coincident' here should not be taken to mean that there's no good reason why he's popular, but rather that I doubt he had any conscious, prescient insight that directed him to adopt this kind of rhetoric as opposed to some other. This is who he is. Who he is happens to be an excellent sample of (at least) a plurality of the Republican base. Unless you have evidence to the contrary, I'm afraid there's nothing more to it than that.

So you might be getting ahead of yourself if you think he might "outsmart" Hillary Clinton.
"A stupid despot may constrain his slaves with iron chains; but a true politician binds them even more strongly with the chain of their own ideas" - Michel Foucault
000ike
Posts: 11,196
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12/10/2015 9:57:13 PM
Posted: 12 months ago
And this is all to say that there's probably nothing Trump knew that Carson or Rubio or Bush or anyone else didn't. He's just a regular idiot who's saying what's on his mind and the permanence of his lead is owed largely to unforeseeable circumstances which happened to be conducive to his aggressive and uncompromising demeanor.

Were it not for Paris and San Bernardino, Cruz and Rubio would be far more serious contenders. Let Carson's transient lead earlier this fall --- before foreign policy and national security became such salient topics --- be evidence of that.
"A stupid despot may constrain his slaves with iron chains; but a true politician binds them even more strongly with the chain of their own ideas" - Michel Foucault