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The Election Called Early (Vox's Opinion)

Vox_Veritas
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1/22/2016 12:34:05 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
The 2016 Presidential Election will go one of several ways. I'm going to list the possibilities and their probable consequences (or at least what I think it'll probably be like):

1. Ben Carson wins the GOP nomination. Any Democratic candidate (perhaps even Martin O'Malley) gets the nomination. The Dem candidate wins in a landslide, becomes President. I cannot foresee the long-term implications for the GOP if this happens.

2. An establishment candidate wins the GOP nomination. Any Democratic candidate (perhaps even Martin O'Malley) gets the nomination. The Democratic candidate wins, though perhaps not in a landslide. Even if the GOP candidate wins, it won't matter because then the GOP implodes, goes the way of the Federalists and the Whigs (or at best it is dealt a massive blow which it'd be very, very difficult to recover from).

3. Donald Trump wins the GOP nomination. Bernie Sanders wins the GOP nomination. Bernie Sanders wins; by how much I have no way of knowing.

4. Donald Trump wins the GOP nomination. Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination. Trump has roughly an equal or perhaps slightly higher chance of winning.
The reason for this is simple: Hillary Clinton is the Democratic Party's equivalent to Ted Cruz. She is perceived by members of both parties as slimy, fake, and untrustworthy, stuff like the email scandal(s) and Benghazi aside. This will disillusion many Democrat voters, who were really hoping that Bernie Sanders got the nomination, and Dem turnout will be at least slightly lower (with a noticeably large amount of Democrats crossing over to vote for Trump).

So what do you think of my prediction?
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

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TBR
Posts: 9,991
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1/22/2016 12:43:04 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/22/2016 12:34:05 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
The 2016 Presidential Election will go one of several ways. I'm going to list the possibilities and their probable consequences (or at least what I think it'll probably be like):

1. Ben Carson wins the GOP nomination. Any Democratic candidate (perhaps even Martin O'Malley) gets the nomination. The Dem candidate wins in a landslide, becomes President. I cannot foresee the long-term implications for the GOP if this happens.

2. An establishment candidate wins the GOP nomination. Any Democratic candidate (perhaps even Martin O'Malley) gets the nomination. The Democratic candidate wins, though perhaps not in a landslide. Even if the GOP candidate wins, it won't matter because then the GOP implodes, goes the way of the Federalists and the Whigs (or at best it is dealt a massive blow which it'd be very, very difficult to recover from).

3. Donald Trump wins the GOP nomination. Bernie Sanders wins the GOP nomination. Bernie Sanders wins; by how much I have no way of knowing.

4. Donald Trump wins the GOP nomination. Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination. Trump has roughly an equal or perhaps slightly higher chance of winning.
The reason for this is simple: Hillary Clinton is the Democratic Party's equivalent to Ted Cruz. She is perceived by members of both parties as slimy, fake, and untrustworthy, stuff like the email scandal(s) and Benghazi aside. This will disillusion many Democrat voters, who were really hoping that Bernie Sanders got the nomination, and Dem turnout will be at least slightly lower (with a noticeably large amount of Democrats crossing over to vote for Trump).

So what do you think of my prediction?

Not bad really.

I do think Clinton would win to Trump, but its more work.
Vox_Veritas
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1/22/2016 12:45:54 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/22/2016 12:43:04 AM, TBR wrote:
At 1/22/2016 12:34:05 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
The 2016 Presidential Election will go one of several ways. I'm going to list the possibilities and their probable consequences (or at least what I think it'll probably be like):

1. Ben Carson wins the GOP nomination. Any Democratic candidate (perhaps even Martin O'Malley) gets the nomination. The Dem candidate wins in a landslide, becomes President. I cannot foresee the long-term implications for the GOP if this happens.

2. An establishment candidate wins the GOP nomination. Any Democratic candidate (perhaps even Martin O'Malley) gets the nomination. The Democratic candidate wins, though perhaps not in a landslide. Even if the GOP candidate wins, it won't matter because then the GOP implodes, goes the way of the Federalists and the Whigs (or at best it is dealt a massive blow which it'd be very, very difficult to recover from).

3. Donald Trump wins the GOP nomination. Bernie Sanders wins the GOP nomination. Bernie Sanders wins; by how much I have no way of knowing.

4. Donald Trump wins the GOP nomination. Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination. Trump has roughly an equal or perhaps slightly higher chance of winning.
The reason for this is simple: Hillary Clinton is the Democratic Party's equivalent to Ted Cruz. She is perceived by members of both parties as slimy, fake, and untrustworthy, stuff like the email scandal(s) and Benghazi aside. This will disillusion many Democrat voters, who were really hoping that Bernie Sanders got the nomination, and Dem turnout will be at least slightly lower (with a noticeably large amount of Democrats crossing over to vote for Trump).

So what do you think of my prediction?

Not bad really.

I do think Clinton would win to Trump, but its more work.

The Dems definitely have a starting advantage, but I think nominating Hillary over Sanders would diminish that advantage significantly. I don't know; I heard some expert predict that the Republicans would win 47 states and that a computer model predicted a Republican victory, so I wouldn't really say a Dem victory is absolutely guaranteed.
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

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imabench
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1/22/2016 12:49:24 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/22/2016 12:34:05 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
The 2016 Presidential Election will go one of several ways. I'm going to list the possibilities and their probable consequences (or at least what I think it'll probably be like):

1. Ben Carson wins the GOP nomination. Any Democratic candidate (perhaps even Martin O'Malley) gets the nomination. The Dem candidate wins in a landslide, becomes President. I cannot foresee the long-term implications for the GOP if this happens.

I dont see Ben Carson doing well because he doesnt catch headlines and a good chunk of his voter base is being absorbed by Ted Cruz

2. An establishment candidate wins the GOP nomination. Any Democratic candidate (perhaps even Martin O'Malley) gets the nomination. The Democratic candidate wins, though perhaps not in a landslide. Even if the GOP candidate wins, it won't matter because then the GOP implodes, goes the way of the Federalists and the Whigs (or at best it is dealt a massive blow which it'd be very, very difficult to recover from).

The election will definitely be close, but the GOP imploding is something im only 50-50 on. Hard right wing voters would be p*ssed off like never before, but theyd burn a lot of that energy on opposing whoever gets elected by the time the next election rolls around

3. Donald Trump wins the GOP nomination. Bernie Sanders wins the GOP nomination. Bernie Sanders wins; by how much I have no way of knowing.

Ill be staying home that day if it came down to those two

4. Donald Trump wins the GOP nomination. Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination. Trump has roughly an equal or perhaps slightly higher chance of winning.
The reason for this is simple: Hillary Clinton is the Democratic Party's equivalent to Ted Cruz. She is perceived by members of both parties as slimy, fake, and untrustworthy, stuff like the email scandal(s) and Benghazi aside. This will disillusion many Democrat voters, who were really hoping that Bernie Sanders got the nomination, and Dem turnout will be at least slightly lower (with a noticeably large amount of Democrats crossing over to vote for Trump).

So what do you think of my prediction?

Number 4 sounds pretty realistic as well, but if Hillary picks someone who is really likable for her VP, like Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, then she could probably get enough of a voter turnout to win. Also assuming Donald enrages larger and larger chunks of the electorate by being his normal self, he'll just be pushing people more and more towards Hillary
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Vox_Veritas
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1/22/2016 12:50:55 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
Really, though, it wouldn't so much be that Hillary was an utterly horrible candidate so much as the Dem establishment overlooked a MUCH more preferable candidate, the candidate that the Democrat voted wanted. This would make the party look like it wasn't in touch with its base.
Ultimately, I think this election hinges upon the political outsiders.
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

The DDO Blog:
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000ike
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1/22/2016 1:06:29 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/22/2016 12:34:05 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
3. Donald Trump wins the GOP nomination. Bernie Sanders wins the GOP nomination. Bernie Sanders wins; by how much I have no way of knowing.

I don't agree with this. If Bernie Sanders wins the democratic nomination, he will defeat him with incredible facility. What Sanders has done, at the very least, is make the term 'socialism' slightly less toxic in American politics; it's a precedent that future leftist candidates can use, but it's something that requires time and sufficient legitimation.

You grossly underestimate the kind of fear and paranoia that can be extracted from that single term.

4. Donald Trump wins the GOP nomination. Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination. Trump has roughly an equal or perhaps slightly higher chance of winning.
The reason for this is simple: Hillary Clinton is the Democratic Party's equivalent to Ted Cruz. She is perceived by members of both parties as slimy, fake, and untrustworthy, stuff like the email scandal(s) and Benghazi aside. This will disillusion many Democrat voters, who were really hoping that Bernie Sanders got the nomination, and Dem turnout will be at least slightly lower (with a noticeably large amount of Democrats crossing over to vote for Trump).

So what do you think of my prediction?

I also disagree with this. Clinton is not Cruz. She entered this election with a near mandate from the party, and has maintained a commanding national lead ever since. She's also a pretty shrewd politician, she can highlight Trump's inexperience better than Sanders which is effective for courting independents and moderates, and then present herself as a continuation of Obama's regime, which is effective for courting minority voters. Trump has stepped on a lot of toes during his campaign.... and there are likely a good portion of republicans who wouldn't be interested in voting anymore if he's nominated.

If Clinton faces Trump, she will win narrowly but decisively.
"A stupid despot may constrain his slaves with iron chains; but a true politician binds them even more strongly with the chain of their own ideas" - Michel Foucault
000ike
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1/22/2016 1:07:41 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
Trump will defeat Sanders with incredible facility*
"A stupid despot may constrain his slaves with iron chains; but a true politician binds them even more strongly with the chain of their own ideas" - Michel Foucault
Vox_Veritas
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1/22/2016 1:15:14 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/22/2016 1:07:41 AM, 000ike wrote:
Trump will defeat Sanders with incredible facility*

So you believe my take on scenarios 3 and 4 to be backwards?
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

The DDO Blog:
https://debatedotorg.wordpress.com...

#drinkthecoffeenotthekoolaid
000ike
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1/22/2016 1:20:07 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/22/2016 1:15:14 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 1/22/2016 1:07:41 AM, 000ike wrote:
Trump will defeat Sanders with incredible facility*

So you believe my take on scenarios 3 and 4 to be backwards?

right. And inb4 people say this is analogous to the skepticism people expressed about Obama's chances of winning. Thing is, no body ran ads citing Obama's races as a disqualifying factor, nor could they even successfully imply such a thing. Donald Trump can cite and exploit Sander's self-description on stage with him in a general election debate before tens of millions of viewers,...and relentlessly attack him on that basis, with absolute impunity.

And if that happens, there's no question that he'll be successful.
"A stupid despot may constrain his slaves with iron chains; but a true politician binds them even more strongly with the chain of their own ideas" - Michel Foucault
dylancatlow
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1/22/2016 1:25:47 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
I think the most likely outcome is:

Hillary wins the Democratic nomination

Either Rubio, Bush or Cruz wins the Republican nomination.

If Trump or Sanders wins their nomination, I think that the odds of the other winning theirs goes way up - but it's probably still very low. The reason is that if the nation is ready for one anti-establishment candidate, they're probably ready for another. The same forces that would get one elected would make the other's nomination more likely.
EndarkenedRationalist
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1/22/2016 1:29:08 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/22/2016 1:07:41 AM, 000ike wrote:
Trump will defeat Sanders with incredible facility*

Except every poll ever says different, including those by people who know politics.
EndarkenedRationalist
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1/22/2016 1:29:50 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/22/2016 12:34:05 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
The 2016 Presidential Election will go one of several ways. I'm going to list the possibilities and their probable consequences (or at least what I think it'll probably be like):

1. Ben Carson wins the GOP nomination. Any Democratic candidate (perhaps even Martin O'Malley) gets the nomination. The Dem candidate wins in a landslide, becomes President. I cannot foresee the long-term implications for the GOP if this happens.

2. An establishment candidate wins the GOP nomination. Any Democratic candidate (perhaps even Martin O'Malley) gets the nomination. The Democratic candidate wins, though perhaps not in a landslide. Even if the GOP candidate wins, it won't matter because then the GOP implodes, goes the way of the Federalists and the Whigs (or at best it is dealt a massive blow which it'd be very, very difficult to recover from).

3. Donald Trump wins the GOP nomination. Bernie Sanders wins the GOP nomination. Bernie Sanders wins; by how much I have no way of knowing.

I would love, love, love to see Sanders win the GOP nomination.

4. Donald Trump wins the GOP nomination. Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination. Trump has roughly an equal or perhaps slightly higher chance of winning.
The reason for this is simple: Hillary Clinton is the Democratic Party's equivalent to Ted Cruz. She is perceived by members of both parties as slimy, fake, and untrustworthy, stuff like the email scandal(s) and Benghazi aside. This will disillusion many Democrat voters, who were really hoping that Bernie Sanders got the nomination, and Dem turnout will be at least slightly lower (with a noticeably large amount of Democrats crossing over to vote for Trump).

So what do you think of my prediction?
dylancatlow
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1/22/2016 1:32:00 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/22/2016 1:29:50 AM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
At 1/22/2016 12:34:05 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
The 2016 Presidential Election will go one of several ways. I'm going to list the possibilities and their probable consequences (or at least what I think it'll probably be like):

1. Ben Carson wins the GOP nomination. Any Democratic candidate (perhaps even Martin O'Malley) gets the nomination. The Dem candidate wins in a landslide, becomes President. I cannot foresee the long-term implications for the GOP if this happens.

2. An establishment candidate wins the GOP nomination. Any Democratic candidate (perhaps even Martin O'Malley) gets the nomination. The Democratic candidate wins, though perhaps not in a landslide. Even if the GOP candidate wins, it won't matter because then the GOP implodes, goes the way of the Federalists and the Whigs (or at best it is dealt a massive blow which it'd be very, very difficult to recover from).

3. Donald Trump wins the GOP nomination. Bernie Sanders wins the GOP nomination. Bernie Sanders wins; by how much I have no way of knowing.

I would love, love, love to see Sanders win the GOP nomination.

LOL.


4. Donald Trump wins the GOP nomination. Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination. Trump has roughly an equal or perhaps slightly higher chance of winning.
The reason for this is simple: Hillary Clinton is the Democratic Party's equivalent to Ted Cruz. She is perceived by members of both parties as slimy, fake, and untrustworthy, stuff like the email scandal(s) and Benghazi aside. This will disillusion many Democrat voters, who were really hoping that Bernie Sanders got the nomination, and Dem turnout will be at least slightly lower (with a noticeably large amount of Democrats crossing over to vote for Trump).

So what do you think of my prediction?
TBR
Posts: 9,991
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1/22/2016 1:37:16 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/22/2016 12:49:24 AM, imabench wrote:
At 1/22/2016 12:34:05 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
The 2016 Presidential Election will go one of several ways. I'm going to list the possibilities and their probable consequences (or at least what I think it'll probably be like):

1. Ben Carson wins the GOP nomination. Any Democratic candidate (perhaps even Martin O'Malley) gets the nomination. The Dem candidate wins in a landslide, becomes President. I cannot foresee the long-term implications for the GOP if this happens.

I dont see Ben Carson doing well because he doesnt catch headlines and a good chunk of his voter base is being absorbed by Ted Cruz

2. An establishment candidate wins the GOP nomination. Any Democratic candidate (perhaps even Martin O'Malley) gets the nomination. The Democratic candidate wins, though perhaps not in a landslide. Even if the GOP candidate wins, it won't matter because then the GOP implodes, goes the way of the Federalists and the Whigs (or at best it is dealt a massive blow which it'd be very, very difficult to recover from).

The election will definitely be close, but the GOP imploding is something im only 50-50 on. Hard right wing voters would be p*ssed off like never before, but theyd burn a lot of that energy on opposing whoever gets elected by the time the next election rolls around

3. Donald Trump wins the GOP nomination. Bernie Sanders wins the GOP nomination. Bernie Sanders wins; by how much I have no way of knowing.

Ill be staying home that day if it came down to those two

4. Donald Trump wins the GOP nomination. Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination. Trump has roughly an equal or perhaps slightly higher chance of winning.
The reason for this is simple: Hillary Clinton is the Democratic Party's equivalent to Ted Cruz. She is perceived by members of both parties as slimy, fake, and untrustworthy, stuff like the email scandal(s) and Benghazi aside. This will disillusion many Democrat voters, who were really hoping that Bernie Sanders got the nomination, and Dem turnout will be at least slightly lower (with a noticeably large amount of Democrats crossing over to vote for Trump).

So what do you think of my prediction?

Number 4 sounds pretty realistic as well, but if Hillary picks someone who is really likable for her VP, like Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, then she could probably get enough of a voter turnout to win. Also assuming Donald enrages larger and larger chunks of the electorate by being his normal self, he'll just be pushing people more and more towards Hillary

She is going to pick that Castro guy, you know it.
000ike
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1/22/2016 1:37:38 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/22/2016 1:29:08 AM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
At 1/22/2016 1:07:41 AM, 000ike wrote:
Trump will defeat Sanders with incredible facility*

Except every poll ever says different, including those by people who know politics.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com... So 6 polls give Sander's the victory, and 4 give Trump the victory, so definitely not every poll says different.

Besides, the Republican candidates won't have occasion to really lambaste Sanders' socialism until he's at least beating Clinton nationally. Trump will be very good at it, if he thinks its necessary... and reckoning that will fall on the Democratic party in the polls if that happens will be just heart-breaking.
"A stupid despot may constrain his slaves with iron chains; but a true politician binds them even more strongly with the chain of their own ideas" - Michel Foucault
EndarkenedRationalist
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1/22/2016 1:40:24 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/22/2016 1:37:38 AM, 000ike wrote:
At 1/22/2016 1:29:08 AM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
At 1/22/2016 1:07:41 AM, 000ike wrote:
Trump will defeat Sanders with incredible facility*

Except every poll ever says different, including those by people who know politics.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com... So 6 polls give Sander's the victory, and 4 give Trump the victory, so definitely not every poll says different.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

Besides, the Republican candidates won't have occasion to really lambaste Sanders' socialism until he's at least beating Clinton nationally. Trump will be very good at it, if he thinks its necessary... and reckoning that will fall on the Democratic party in the polls if that happens will be just heart-breaking.

Except...it won't, really. All Trump does is lamblast. It won't be remotely effective. More people despise Trump than socialism. There's a reason all the polls talk about what a poor general election candidate he'd be.
000ike
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1/22/2016 2:01:31 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/22/2016 1:40:24 AM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
At 1/22/2016 1:37:38 AM, 000ike wrote:
At 1/22/2016 1:29:08 AM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
At 1/22/2016 1:07:41 AM, 000ike wrote:
Trump will defeat Sanders with incredible facility*

Except every poll ever says different, including those by people who know politics.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com... So 6 polls give Sander's the victory, and 4 give Trump the victory, so definitely not every poll says different.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

That's pretty much saying the same thing .... And if you look at the full list of general election results it looks like almost every poll has Sanders winning, but you'll notice that almost half were conducting in September or earlier, back when Ben Carson was still competitive, and national security wasn't an issue.

Besides, the Republican candidates won't have occasion to really lambaste Sanders' socialism until he's at least beating Clinton nationally. Trump will be very good at it, if he thinks its necessary... and reckoning that will fall on the Democratic party in the polls if that happens will be just heart-breaking.

Except...it won't, really. All Trump does is lamblast. It won't be remotely effective. More people despise Trump than socialism. There's a reason all the polls talk about what a poor general election candidate he'd be.

I'm sure there are effective ways to do it. Trump pretty much curbed Cruz's lead in Iowa by attacking his eligibility (in the most tactful manner possible).
"A stupid despot may constrain his slaves with iron chains; but a true politician binds them even more strongly with the chain of their own ideas" - Michel Foucault
1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,102
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1/22/2016 2:04:21 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/22/2016 2:01:31 AM, 000ike wrote:
At 1/22/2016 1:40:24 AM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
At 1/22/2016 1:37:38 AM, 000ike wrote:
At 1/22/2016 1:29:08 AM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
At 1/22/2016 1:07:41 AM, 000ike wrote:
Trump will defeat Sanders with incredible facility*

Except every poll ever says different, including those by people who know politics.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com... So 6 polls give Sander's the victory, and 4 give Trump the victory, so definitely not every poll says different.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

That's pretty much saying the same thing .... And if you look at the full list of general election results it looks like almost every poll has Sanders winning, but you'll notice that almost half were conducting in September or earlier, back when Ben Carson was still competitive, and national security wasn't an issue.

Besides, the Republican candidates won't have occasion to really lambaste Sanders' socialism until he's at least beating Clinton nationally. Trump will be very good at it, if he thinks its necessary... and reckoning that will fall on the Democratic party in the polls if that happens will be just heart-breaking.

Except...it won't, really. All Trump does is lamblast. It won't be remotely effective. More people despise Trump than socialism. There's a reason all the polls talk about what a poor general election candidate he'd be.

I'm sure there are effective ways to do it. Trump pretty much curbed Cruz's lead in Iowa by attacking his eligibility (in the most tactful manner possible).

I honestly think that the Palin endorsement did more for him than that.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

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000ike
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1/22/2016 2:05:31 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/22/2016 2:04:21 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:

I honestly think that the Palin endorsement did more for him than that.

The lead had narrowed substantially prior to Palin's endorsement
"A stupid despot may constrain his slaves with iron chains; but a true politician binds them even more strongly with the chain of their own ideas" - Michel Foucault
1harderthanyouthink
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1/22/2016 2:07:14 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
And Ike, RCP puts Sanders above Trump by over 5. And frankly, I'd take the likes of CNN and Quinnipiac over FOX News pollsters.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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1harderthanyouthink
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1/22/2016 2:07:56 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/22/2016 2:05:31 AM, 000ike wrote:
At 1/22/2016 2:04:21 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:

I honestly think that the Palin endorsement did more for him than that.

The lead had narrowed substantially prior to Palin's endorsement

What was the lead before the endorsement?
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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Vox_Veritas
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1/22/2016 2:11:36 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/22/2016 2:04:21 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 1/22/2016 2:01:31 AM, 000ike wrote:
At 1/22/2016 1:40:24 AM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
At 1/22/2016 1:37:38 AM, 000ike wrote:
At 1/22/2016 1:29:08 AM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
At 1/22/2016 1:07:41 AM, 000ike wrote:
Trump will defeat Sanders with incredible facility*

Except every poll ever says different, including those by people who know politics.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com... So 6 polls give Sander's the victory, and 4 give Trump the victory, so definitely not every poll says different.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

That's pretty much saying the same thing .... And if you look at the full list of general election results it looks like almost every poll has Sanders winning, but you'll notice that almost half were conducting in September or earlier, back when Ben Carson was still competitive, and national security wasn't an issue.

Besides, the Republican candidates won't have occasion to really lambaste Sanders' socialism until he's at least beating Clinton nationally. Trump will be very good at it, if he thinks its necessary... and reckoning that will fall on the Democratic party in the polls if that happens will be just heart-breaking.

Except...it won't, really. All Trump does is lamblast. It won't be remotely effective. More people despise Trump than socialism. There's a reason all the polls talk about what a poor general election candidate he'd be.

I'm sure there are effective ways to do it. Trump pretty much curbed Cruz's lead in Iowa by attacking his eligibility (in the most tactful manner possible).

I honestly think that the Palin endorsement did more for him than that.

Palin's endorsement speech was...disturbing.
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

The DDO Blog:
https://debatedotorg.wordpress.com...

#drinkthecoffeenotthekoolaid
1harderthanyouthink
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1/22/2016 2:13:50 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/22/2016 2:11:36 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 1/22/2016 2:04:21 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 1/22/2016 2:01:31 AM, 000ike wrote:
At 1/22/2016 1:40:24 AM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
That's pretty much saying the same thing .... And if you look at the full list of general election results it looks like almost every poll has Sanders winning, but you'll notice that almost half were conducting in September or earlier, back when Ben Carson was still competitive, and national security wasn't an issue.

Besides, the Republican candidates won't have occasion to really lambaste Sanders' socialism until he's at least beating Clinton nationally. Trump will be very good at it, if he thinks its necessary... and reckoning that will fall on the Democratic party in the polls if that happens will be just heart-breaking.

Except...it won't, really. All Trump does is lamblast. It won't be remotely effective. More people despise Trump than socialism. There's a reason all the polls talk about what a poor general election candidate he'd be.

I'm sure there are effective ways to do it. Trump pretty much curbed Cruz's lead in Iowa by attacking his eligibility (in the most tactful manner possible).

I honestly think that the Palin endorsement did more for him than that.

Palin's endorsement speech was...disturbing.

Lol
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000ike
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1/22/2016 2:14:16 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/22/2016 2:07:56 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 1/22/2016 2:05:31 AM, 000ike wrote:
At 1/22/2016 2:04:21 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:

I honestly think that the Palin endorsement did more for him than that.

The lead had narrowed substantially prior to Palin's endorsement

What was the lead before the endorsement?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

Cruz is black, Trump is blue. Cruz declines beginning January 6th, concurrently with the questions about his eligibility. The lead at the point was 4 points
"A stupid despot may constrain his slaves with iron chains; but a true politician binds them even more strongly with the chain of their own ideas" - Michel Foucault
dylancatlow
Posts: 12,245
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1/22/2016 2:15:26 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/22/2016 2:11:36 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 1/22/2016 2:04:21 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 1/22/2016 2:01:31 AM, 000ike wrote:
At 1/22/2016 1:40:24 AM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
At 1/22/2016 1:37:38 AM, 000ike wrote:
At 1/22/2016 1:29:08 AM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
At 1/22/2016 1:07:41 AM, 000ike wrote:
Trump will defeat Sanders with incredible facility*

Except every poll ever says different, including those by people who know politics.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com... So 6 polls give Sander's the victory, and 4 give Trump the victory, so definitely not every poll says different.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

That's pretty much saying the same thing .... And if you look at the full list of general election results it looks like almost every poll has Sanders winning, but you'll notice that almost half were conducting in September or earlier, back when Ben Carson was still competitive, and national security wasn't an issue.

Besides, the Republican candidates won't have occasion to really lambaste Sanders' socialism until he's at least beating Clinton nationally. Trump will be very good at it, if he thinks its necessary... and reckoning that will fall on the Democratic party in the polls if that happens will be just heart-breaking.

Except...it won't, really. All Trump does is lamblast. It won't be remotely effective. More people despise Trump than socialism. There's a reason all the polls talk about what a poor general election candidate he'd be.

I'm sure there are effective ways to do it. Trump pretty much curbed Cruz's lead in Iowa by attacking his eligibility (in the most tactful manner possible).

I honestly think that the Palin endorsement did more for him than that.

Palin's endorsement speech was...disturbing.

"Politician turned reality star endorses reality star turned politician"
000ike
Posts: 11,196
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1/22/2016 2:18:02 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
in fact, Trump was already ahead by 1 or 2 points by January 19th, the day before Palin's endorsement.
"A stupid despot may constrain his slaves with iron chains; but a true politician binds them even more strongly with the chain of their own ideas" - Michel Foucault
Mikal
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1/22/2016 2:54:25 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/22/2016 1:40:24 AM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
At 1/22/2016 1:37:38 AM, 000ike wrote:
At 1/22/2016 1:29:08 AM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
At 1/22/2016 1:07:41 AM, 000ike wrote:
Trump will defeat Sanders with incredible facility*

Except every poll ever says different, including those by people who know politics.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com... So 6 polls give Sander's the victory, and 4 give Trump the victory, so definitely not every poll says different.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

Besides, the Republican candidates won't have occasion to really lambaste Sanders' socialism until he's at least beating Clinton nationally. Trump will be very good at it, if he thinks its necessary... and reckoning that will fall on the Democratic party in the polls if that happens will be just heart-breaking.

Except...it won't, really. All Trump does is lamblast. It won't be remotely effective. More people despise Trump than socialism. There's a reason all the polls talk about what a poor general election candidate he'd be.

I think Trump beats sanders pretty badly. The polls on a certain "matchups" are by no means conclusive, nor does it take into account all the full variables until it goes into a heads up. When trump starts burning bernie on being a socialist, the nation will shift to trump. The entire nation is already switching to GOP (the party always has and always will flipflop). People get tired of the dems so they vote rep, and vice versa. The net change in the senate and house show its happening already.

Trump has a very good shot at winning this election
Mikal
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1/22/2016 3:00:36 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
Trumps attack on Hillary

"Do you want 8 more years of Obama"

Instant Win

Trumps attack of Bernie

"Do you want 8 years of someone worse than Obama"

Instant Win

If nothing else trumps campaign team has shown to be masterful craftsmen when it comes to forging a campaign from the flames of impossibility. They literally saw every single situation occurring before it happened, had Trump act in obscure and obscene ways to appeal to the GOP base, and managed to forge a walking manifestation of the outdated ideals that are kept in the closet of close minded conservatives.
imabench
Posts: 21,211
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1/22/2016 3:07:58 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/22/2016 3:00:36 AM, Mikal wrote:
Trumps attack on Hillary

"Do you want 8 more years of Obama"

Instant Win

Trumps attack of Bernie

"Do you want 8 years of someone worse than Obama"

Instant Win

If nothing else trumps campaign team has shown to be masterful craftsmen when it comes to forging a campaign from the flames of impossibility. They literally saw every single situation occurring before it happened, had Trump act in obscure and obscene ways to appeal to the GOP base, and managed to forge a walking manifestation of the outdated ideals that are kept in the closet of close minded conservatives.

Trump's strategy will only be able to hype up hardcore republicans who are white and under-educated, which is an increasingly limited fragment of the entire electorate. Hillary will probably get the latino vote, she'll probably get the african american vote, she already has an advantage on the woman vote, and she'll be better able to get independents to her side since Trump is Trump.

I can see Trump winning the nomination but demographically I see no way of him winning a general election against Hillary
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Mikal
Posts: 11,270
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1/22/2016 3:11:43 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/22/2016 3:07:58 AM, imabench wrote:
At 1/22/2016 3:00:36 AM, Mikal wrote:
Trumps attack on Hillary

"Do you want 8 more years of Obama"

Instant Win

Trumps attack of Bernie

"Do you want 8 years of someone worse than Obama"

Instant Win

If nothing else trumps campaign team has shown to be masterful craftsmen when it comes to forging a campaign from the flames of impossibility. They literally saw every single situation occurring before it happened, had Trump act in obscure and obscene ways to appeal to the GOP base, and managed to forge a walking manifestation of the outdated ideals that are kept in the closet of close minded conservatives.

Trump's strategy will only be able to hype up hardcore republicans who are white and under-educated, which is an increasingly limited fragment of the entire electorate. Hillary will probably get the latino vote, she'll probably get the african american vote, she already has an advantage on the woman vote, and she'll be better able to get independents to her side since Trump is Trump.

I can see Trump winning the nomination but demographically I see no way of him winning a general election against Hillary

The overall population means nothing in a election, it comes down to the swing states. If trump does what I think he's going to do, he is going to pick Rubio. Hes almost promised Florida. Hillary will get Colorado, and trump will grab Nevada and SC. Virginia's black voters swung it for Obama (non racism), it won't happen again. He's going to use Rubio to swing some of the minority votes and then just will take the states that naturally go to him.

He has a very very very good shot. To the point it's scary.