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Scenario: Eastern Province War

Vox_Veritas
Posts: 7,070
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1/25/2016 8:59:15 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
Saudi Arabia has a province to the East which, as this would suggest, is called the Eastern Province. It is Saudi Arabia's largest region, most of the country's oil can be found here, and most of the region's 4.1 million people are reportedly Shi'ites. The people there are reportedly really, really teed at the Sunni government and this anger has increased since the Saudi military intervention in Yemen that started last year. Already there have been some clashes between the Eastern Province denizens and the police.
Russia obviously benefits from higher oil prices (a war in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia would definitely raise global oil prices) and Iran would obviously like to weaken Saudi Arabia and they'd probably jump at the chance to carve out a Shi'ite breakaway state from their enemy's territory.
So then...how likely is a Shia secessionist conflict in Saudi Arabia this year?
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imabench
Posts: 21,206
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1/26/2016 3:22:27 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/25/2016 8:59:15 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
Saudi Arabia has a province to the East which, as this would suggest, is called the Eastern Province. It is Saudi Arabia's largest region, most of the country's oil can be found here, and most of the region's 4.1 million people are reportedly Shi'ites. The people there are reportedly really, really teed at the Sunni government and this anger has increased since the Saudi military intervention in Yemen that started last year. Already there have been some clashes between the Eastern Province denizens and the police.
Russia obviously benefits from higher oil prices (a war in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia would definitely raise global oil prices) and Iran would obviously like to weaken Saudi Arabia and they'd probably jump at the chance to carve out a Shi'ite breakaway state from their enemy's territory.

So then...how likely is a Shia secessionist conflict in Saudi Arabia this year?

Id put it at <1% considering 1) The stability of Saudi Arabia compared to other nearby countries, 2) The fact that scession could jeopardize the oil wealth the region completely depends on, and 3) The very modern Saudi military that ranks 3rd in the world in terms of overall funding would make people think twice about secession
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

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Vox_Veritas
Posts: 7,070
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1/26/2016 3:54:19 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/26/2016 3:22:27 AM, imabench wrote:
At 1/25/2016 8:59:15 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
Saudi Arabia has a province to the East which, as this would suggest, is called the Eastern Province. It is Saudi Arabia's largest region, most of the country's oil can be found here, and most of the region's 4.1 million people are reportedly Shi'ites. The people there are reportedly really, really teed at the Sunni government and this anger has increased since the Saudi military intervention in Yemen that started last year. Already there have been some clashes between the Eastern Province denizens and the police.
Russia obviously benefits from higher oil prices (a war in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia would definitely raise global oil prices) and Iran would obviously like to weaken Saudi Arabia and they'd probably jump at the chance to carve out a Shi'ite breakaway state from their enemy's territory.

So then...how likely is a Shia secessionist conflict in Saudi Arabia this year?

Id put it at <1% considering 1) The stability of Saudi Arabia compared to other nearby countries, 2) The fact that scession could jeopardize the oil wealth the region completely depends on, and 3) The very modern Saudi military that ranks 3rd in the world in terms of overall funding would make people think twice about secession

1. Virtually every Arab Spring nation was as stable as Saudi Arabia is now (how much Civil War did Libya or Syria go through prior to 2011?).
2. The Shi'ite secessionists could, if they succeeded, keep all the oil for themselves, even if the war caused a temporary end to production. Plus, Saudi overproduction is already killing the region's economy. Lesser production would benefit them massively. So the rebels would have every incentive to act.
3. There are Americans who want to rebel against the US Government now, despite it having the world's greatest military in terms of funding. Plus, they'd almost assuredly have Iranian backing, and would-be rebels probably know this.
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

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imabench
Posts: 21,206
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1/26/2016 2:56:40 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/26/2016 3:54:19 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 1/26/2016 3:22:27 AM, imabench wrote:
At 1/25/2016 8:59:15 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
Saudi Arabia has a province to the East which, as this would suggest, is called the Eastern Province. It is Saudi Arabia's largest region, most of the country's oil can be found here, and most of the region's 4.1 million people are reportedly Shi'ites. The people there are reportedly really, really teed at the Sunni government and this anger has increased since the Saudi military intervention in Yemen that started last year. Already there have been some clashes between the Eastern Province denizens and the police.
Russia obviously benefits from higher oil prices (a war in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia would definitely raise global oil prices) and Iran would obviously like to weaken Saudi Arabia and they'd probably jump at the chance to carve out a Shi'ite breakaway state from their enemy's territory.

So then...how likely is a Shia secessionist conflict in Saudi Arabia this year?

Id put it at <1% considering 1) The stability of Saudi Arabia compared to other nearby countries, 2) The fact that scession could jeopardize the oil wealth the region completely depends on, and 3) The very modern Saudi military that ranks 3rd in the world in terms of overall funding would make people think twice about secession

1. Virtually every Arab Spring nation was as stable as Saudi Arabia is now (how much Civil War did Libya or Syria go through prior to 2011?).

On the surface they appeared stable in terms of government and leadership, but a sharp rise in food prices that corresponded with the Arab Spring movement exposed those nations for the instability hidden just below the surface. Saudi Arabia though has far greater food security than the other nations in the Middle East, second maybe only to Israel, indicating that they are generally more stable than other countries

http://www.mepc.org...

2. The Shi'ite secessionists could, if they succeeded,

That is a gigantic 'if' right there

keep all the oil for themselves,

Assuming the reserves and drills dont get blown up in the ensuing Civil War

even if the war caused a temporary end to production. Plus, Saudi overproduction is already killing the region's economy. Lesser production would benefit them massively. So the rebels would have every incentive to act.

Minus the chance of their homes getting destroyed, their families being killed, their entire lifestyle being uprooted, etc.

3. There are Americans who want to rebel against the US Government now, despite it having the world's greatest military in terms of funding.

Reasonable people outnumber idiots, thats true in the US as much as it is in Saudi Arabia.... When the American Revolution itself happened in 1776, only a third of the US population was in favor of succession, with another third being loyal to the British, and the final third being undecided..... The Saudi population not only isnt being treated as harshly by their own government as the US was by the British in 1776, but even if they were, only a fraction of the population would support secession.

Plus, they'd almost assuredly have Iranian backing, and would-be rebels probably know this.

The South thought for sure they would have Great Britain's backing when they seceeded from the North in our own Civil War. The British didnt show up, and Iran would likely do the same and stay out of a potential conflict since Saudi Arabia would be far more capable of getting powerful allies on its side than Iran would for support of the rebels
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015