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Presidential Race Predictions

Codename_X
Posts: 5
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1/25/2016 11:14:03 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
My personal prediction for the United States presidential rase is that Hillary Clinton is going to win the nomination for the Democratic party, and Ted Cruz is going to win the nomination for the Republican party. The end result will be pretty close, but Hillary Clinton will win, and become president.

See the current polls and different trends below.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com... (democratic polling)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com... (Republican polling)

Yes, I know Donald Trump is leading for the Republicans by a fair margin, but I still predict Ted Cruz will win the nomination. This is because Donald Trump is on the far right, and Hillary Clinton is on the left. This leads those in the middle to vote for Clinton instead of Trump. Whereas Cruz is not as far right as Trump, so those in the middle would be less inclined to vote for Clinton. The Republican Party wants a Republican to win, so they will most likely nominate the person they think will most likely win.

This is just my reasoning, and I am not very sure; I wouldn't place any bets on it.

Again, these are just my predictions, and not what I actually want to happen. What are your predictions?
Codename_X
Posts: 5
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1/25/2016 11:24:05 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
My reasoning as to why Hillary Clinton will beat Ted Cruz is because of Cruz's negative stance on gay marriage, global warming, and immigration (particularly regarding Muslim immigration). So gays/lesbians, climate activists, muslims and immigrants will most likely not vote for him.

P.S. sorry for this comment instead of it being included in the post. I am new to the forums and could not find a way to edit original post.
imabench
Posts: 21,211
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1/26/2016 2:03:09 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
I dont buy that Cruz will be the nominee over Trump.... Trump will pull out a win in Iowa thanks to that late Palin endorsement, which the source indicates he got a huge bump from, and he's steamrolling the competition in New Hampshire and South Carolina at the moment as well.... If he locks up wins in the first three states of the entire contest, then Cruz supporters will start jumping ship since Trump and Cruz are close enough in common for voters to defect from one side to the side they think will win.

I do think Hillary will win the Dem nomination though because she's beating Bernie by double digits in every state EXCEPT Iowa and New Hampshire, and I have doubts that Bernies supporters will even turnout since they trend way younger than the Hillary demographic does......

Im more interested in seeing which moderate comes the closest to challenging Trump as the primary season drags on..... The smart money is on Rubio, but the way candidates rise and fade, it could be anyone at this point...... Except Jeb
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xus00HAY
Posts: 1,381
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1/26/2016 2:55:04 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
People will not vote for another politician when they can choose a guy who can get things done.
TBR
Posts: 9,991
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1/26/2016 3:51:34 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/25/2016 11:14:03 PM, Codename_X wrote:
My personal prediction for the United States presidential rase is that Hillary Clinton is going to win the nomination for the Democratic party, and Ted Cruz is going to win the nomination for the Republican party. The end result will be pretty close, but Hillary Clinton will win, and become president.

See the current polls and different trends below.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com... (democratic polling)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com... (Republican polling)

Yes, I know Donald Trump is leading for the Republicans by a fair margin, but I still predict Ted Cruz will win the nomination. This is because Donald Trump is on the far right, and Hillary Clinton is on the left. This leads those in the middle to vote for Clinton instead of Trump. Whereas Cruz is not as far right as Trump, so those in the middle would be less inclined to vote for Clinton. The Republican Party wants a Republican to win, so they will most likely nominate the person they think will most likely win.

This is just my reasoning, and I am not very sure; I wouldn't place any bets on it.

Again, these are just my predictions, and not what I actually want to happen. What are your predictions?

My actual predictions at this moment.

Dem Primary
Early States

Sanders takes
NH
IA

Clinton
SC

NV unknown

Then we hit super Tuesday, Sanders shows well, but Clinton gets near knock out blow.

GOP Primary
Early States

Trump
IA
NH

Cruz
SC

A strong show by some other republican brings him up in the polls going into super Tuesday. Who I don't know, but it knocks Trump off the top spot, and its Cruz vs. another through the remainder of the primary.

General
Clinton vs. <GOP - not Trump>

Clinton takes
OR
NV
AZ
NM
CO - ?
FL - ?
OH
MI
IA - ?
MN

Clinton wins.